{"id":42708,"date":"2023-12-17T00:32:52","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T23:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42708"},"modified":"2023-12-16T17:15:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-16T16:15:53","slug":"parizske-klimaticke-cile-neprosly-testem-nakladu-a-prinosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/17\/parizske-klimaticke-cile-neprosly-testem-nakladu-a-prinosu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 c\u00edle nepro\u0161ly testem n\u00e1klad\u016f a p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span>Nov\u00e1 komplexn\u00ed anal\u00fdza zkoum\u00e1, zda implementace c\u00edl\u016f emisn\u00ed politiky Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 dohody p\u0159inese v\u00edce u\u017eitku ne\u017e \u0161kody. V\u00fdsledkem je vyst\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bn\u00ed a m\u011blo by znepokojit i klimatick\u00e9 fanatiky. Nem\u016f\u017eeme zni\u010dit na\u0161i ekonomiku jen proto, \u017ee douf\u00e1me, \u017ee to bude m\u00edt nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd teplotn\u00ed efekt.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Bez ohledu na to, zda m\u00e1 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b vliv na v\u00fdvoj glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty \u010di nikoli \u2013 implementace z\u00e1kon\u016f, p\u0159edpis\u016f a opat\u0159en\u00ed v tomto ohledu zaru\u010den\u011b ovlivn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rozvoj. Opat\u0159en\u00ed, o kter\u00fdch se politici rozhodli \u2013 a jsou velmi sporn\u00e1 \u2013 povedou v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch tak\u00e9 k masivn\u00edmu ekonomick\u00e9mu ot\u0159esu. Ilustruje to tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldscientific.com\/doi\/epdf\/10.1142\/S2010007823400031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span>nov\u00e1 komplexn\u00ed anal\u00fdza<\/span><\/a><span> na toto t\u00e9ma.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stranapro.cz\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-40285 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/11pro-300x79.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"661\" height=\"174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/11pro-300x79.png 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/11pro.png 363w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 661px) 100vw, 661px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span>Anal\u00fdza ukazuje, \u017ee i v t\u011bch nejlep\u0161\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch n\u00e1klady v bilionech dolar\u016f (4,8 procenta HDP) spojen\u00e9 s p\u0159echodem od fosiln\u00edch paliv k nulov\u00fdm \u010dist\u00fdm emis\u00edm do roku 2050 st\u00e1le p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed nad \u010dist\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00ednosy (3,0 procenta HDP) v roce 2100.\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>\u201e\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed odhad n\u00e1klad\u016f na klimatickou politiku, nerealisticky za p\u0159edpokladu realizace s minim\u00e1ln\u00edmi n\u00e1klady, se pohybuje v rozmez\u00ed 3,8-5,6 procenta HDP v roce 2100. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed odhad p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f klimatick\u00e9 politiky , nerealisticky za p\u0159edpokladu vysok\u00fdch emis\u00ed bez politiky a neust\u00e1l\u00e9 zranitelnosti, se podle v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk\u016f pohybuj\u00ed mezi 2,8\u20133,2 procenta HDP,\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ty tak\u00e9 vysv\u011btluj\u00ed, \u017ee v roce 2050 \u2013 kdy by m\u011blo b\u00fdt podle pl\u00e1n\u016f politik\u016f dosa\u017eeno \u201e\u010dist\u00e9 nuly\u201c,\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>\u201enejlep\u0161\u00ed odhady p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f c\u00edle 1,5 \u00b0C by byly kolem 0,5 procenta HDP\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span>,\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>\u201ezat\u00edmco n\u00e1klady by byly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 5 procent\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span>. Hovo\u0159\u00edme tedy o z\u00e1porn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku desetkr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm, ne\u017e jak\u00fd by byl v\u016fbec p\u0159\u00ednos. V r\u016fzn\u00fdch st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00fdch modelov\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dtech tak\u00e9 z\u00edsk\u00e1te z\u00e1porn\u00fd pom\u011br n\u00e1klad\u016f a p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f s faktorem dva a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nem\u011bli bychom v\u0161ak zapom\u00ednat, \u017ee tato anal\u00fdza p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 korelaci mezi obsahem CO2 ve vzduchu a v\u00fdvojem teploty. P\u0159edpoklad, kter\u00fd ji\u017e n\u011bkolik v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f vyvr\u00e1tilo. <\/span><span>\u00a0To tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1: V\u0161echna opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159ijat\u00e1 politiky ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed CO2 nebudou m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty, ale budou m\u00edt masivn\u00ed dopad na ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. M\u011bli bychom se tedy p\u0159ipravit na nejhor\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro ekonomiku&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nov\u00e1 komplexn\u00ed anal\u00fdza zkoum\u00e1, zda implementace c\u00edl\u016f emisn\u00ed politiky Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 dohody p\u0159inese v\u00edce u\u017eitku ne\u017e&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,873,6068],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42708"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42708\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}