{"id":42541,"date":"2023-12-14T06:37:58","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T05:37:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42541"},"modified":"2023-12-14T06:37:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T05:37:58","slug":"jiri-paroubek-je-clenstvi-ukrajiny-v-eu-v-ceskem-narodnim-zajmu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/14\/jiri-paroubek-je-clenstvi-ukrajiny-v-eu-v-ceskem-narodnim-zajmu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Je \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v EU v \u010desk\u00e9m n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jmu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dob\u0159\u00ed politici se od t\u011bch \u0161patn\u00fdch odli\u0161uj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee vid\u00ed trochu d\u00e1l ne\u017eli za prvn\u00ed roh. Jsou to ti, kte\u0159\u00ed dob\u0159e ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee abeceda m\u00e1 v\u00edce p\u00edsmen ne\u017eli jen p\u00edsmeno A. A \u017ee po p\u00edsmenu A n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed p\u00edsmena B, C, D atd. Tuto schopnost, bohu\u017eel, cel\u00e1 politick\u00e1 elita Evropsk\u00e9 unie, snad s v\u00fdjimkou ma\u010farsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Orb\u00e1na, nem\u00e1.<\/strong><\/p>\n

U americk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 elity je to je\u0161t\u011b jinak. Ta pracuje zejm\u00e9na ve prosp\u011bch vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu. Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e se n\u011bkde v\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed, vznikaj\u00ed zak\u00e1zky na dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed. A spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed do tohoto komplexu, prosperuj\u00ed a kr\u00e1sn\u011b vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed. A HDP zem\u011b tak roste. Co na tom, \u017ee takov\u00e9 v\u00fdkony hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 souvis\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdrobou zbran\u00ed a munice, nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd valn\u00fd smysl\u2026 a vlastn\u011b zkresluj\u00ed skute\u010dnou v\u00fdkonnost americk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale zp\u011bt k\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 elit\u011b. T\u00e9 muselo b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9 na za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, \u017ee Rusko je zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 ohromn\u00fd surovinov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l a vlastn\u011b je hospod\u00e1\u0159sky autarkn\u00ed. M\u00e1 tak\u00e9 dostate\u010dnou zem\u011bd\u011blskou produkci, kter\u00e1 nejen, \u017ee u\u017eiv\u00ed vlastn\u00ed obyvatelstvo (na rozd\u00edl od n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00edho Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu), ale je schopno ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fdch 50 \u2013 60 milion\u016f tun p\u0161enice vyv\u00e9zt do sv\u011bta. A v\u00fdvoz zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 produkce, v\u00fdvoz surovin typu ropy, plynu a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch kov\u016f generuje ve sv\u011bt\u011b politick\u00fd vliv. A tak i kdy\u017e se Rusko dostalo dvan\u00e1cti koly sankc\u00ed ze strany Z\u00e1padu do ur\u010dit\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, nebylo sra\u017eeno na kolena, jak si tak\u00e9 strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 Z\u00e1padu p\u0159edstavovali.<\/p>\n

S\u00a0\u00fasm\u011bvem jsem se d\u00edval loni v b\u0159eznu nap\u0159. na redaktory ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00ed televize, kte\u0159\u00ed se vybran\u00fdch \u201eexpert\u016f\u201c po p\u00e1r t\u00fddnech rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu vypt\u00e1vali, kdy \u017ee se tedy to Rusko kone\u010dn\u011b zhrout\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dnes u\u017e nikdo tyto ot\u00e1zky neklade. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9\u2026<\/p>\n

V medi\u00edch ub\u00fdv\u00e1 bl\u00e1bol\u016f o slavn\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ukrajiny a dokonce i \u010desk\u00e1 mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 protiofenziva skon\u010dila fiaskem. A \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 prakticky na cel\u00e9 1300 km dlouh\u00e9 front\u011b p\u0159evzali bojovou iniciativu.<\/p>\n

Dalo se to p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat? Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru ano. Lidsk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l Ukrajiny je prost\u011b men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017eli ten rusk\u00fd (jin\u00e1 je po\u010detnost obyvatelstva). A i kdy\u017e i Putinovi zmizely pluky mlad\u00fdch mu\u017e\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli bojovat za vlast na Ukrajin\u011b, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9m zahrani\u010d\u00ed, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tento jev je mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed pro Zelensk\u00e9ho administrativu. Konec konc\u016f ani \u010cesk\u00e1 republika nem\u00e1 legislativu postavenou tak, aby mohla mlad\u00e9 mu\u017ee z\u00a0Ukrajiny poslat od n\u00e1s \u0161tandop\u00e9de do n\u00e1ru\u010de ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. A tedy i do bojov\u00fdch operac\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b. Komu z\u00a0mlad\u00fdch mu\u017e\u016f by se cht\u011blo um\u00edrat ve zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce? Evrop\u0161t\u00ed i ameri\u010dt\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i m\u011bli p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee i se silou cel\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu a s\u00a0dod\u00e1vkami jeho modern\u00edch zbran\u00ed nebude Ukrajina schopna porazit Rusko. Ostatn\u011b, polo\u017eme si ot\u00e1zku, co by se stalo, kdyby takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, \u017ee by ukrajinsk\u00e9 voje sm\u011b\u0159ovaly, podobn\u011b jako kdysi Napoleon (nechci napsat zrovna Hitler) po v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e9m ta\u017een\u00ed, na hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto Ruska? Pou\u017eili by Rusov\u00e9 v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, kter\u00fdch maj\u00ed pon\u011bkud nadnormativn\u00ed z\u00e1sobu? V\u016fbec o tom nepochybuji.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed zvolna p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed situace, kdy je pot\u0159eba uva\u017eovat, co bude po v\u00e1lce. P\u0159itom Rusko s\u00a0ukon\u010den\u00edm konfliktu zjevn\u011b neposp\u00edch\u00e1, nebo\u0165 v klidu \u010dek\u00e1 na v\u00fdsledky dal\u0161\u00edch voleb v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pak ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Volby na Slovensku a v\u00a0Nizozem\u00ed uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 ji\u017e maj\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b pln\u00e9 zuby. A presumptivn\u00ed americk\u00fd prezident Trump mluv\u00ed jasnou \u0159e\u010d\u00ed. Ukon\u010d\u00ed konflikt s\u00a0Ruskem velmi rychle. Trump je byznysmen a byznys ho zaj\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b. A kdy\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, byznys nen\u00ed…<\/p>\n

Summit Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kter\u00fd prob\u011bhne v\u00a0tomto t\u00fddnu v\u00a0Bruselu, se bude zab\u00fdvat tak trochu chim\u00e9rami. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vstupem Ukrajiny do Evropsk\u00e9 unie. Realistick\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed, zda si to Evropa v\u016fbec m\u016f\u017ee dovolit. Zni\u010den\u00ed Ukrajiny dos\u00e1hlo tak obrovsk\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f. A pot\u0159eba rekonstrukce t\u00e9to zem\u011b ve v\u0161ech oblastech si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 nezm\u011brn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky pen\u011bz. Ale i kdyby tohoto zni\u010den\u00ed ohromn\u00fdch hodnot v\u00a0d\u016fsledku t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva roky trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky nebylo, byly by n\u00e1klady na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed v\u00a0EU ob\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 p\u0159istoupen\u00ed Ukrajiny by podle odborn\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho Ekonomick\u00e9ho institutu (IW) st\u00e1lo zem\u011b Evropsk\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pln\u00e9ho \u010dlenstv\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sedmilet\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed perspektivy n\u011bjak\u00fdch 130 \u2013 190 mld. eur (tj. mezn\u011b a\u017e 4,6 bilion\u016f K\u010d). Tedy a\u017e \u0161estinu (17%) z\u00a0bal\u00edku pen\u011bz zat\u00edm p\u0159ipraven\u00e9ho pro evropskou sedmadvac\u00edtku. Nutn\u011b z\u00a0toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1stky, kter\u00e9 by mohly p\u0159ich\u00e1zet \u010cesk\u00e9 republice z evropsk\u00fdch fond\u016f, by prost\u011b byly podstatn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed nebo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9…Byli bychom nejsp\u00ed\u0161e \u010dist\u00fdmi pl\u00e1tci. Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 z\u00a0institutu IW spo\u010detli, \u017ee zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 dotace Ukrajin\u011b by dos\u00e1hly v\u00fd\u0161e 70 \u2013 90 mld. eur ve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m sedmilet\u00e9m obdob\u00ed (l\u00e9ta 2021 \u2013 2027) a tzv. kohezn\u00ed politika EU, je\u017e m\u00e1 sni\u017eovat rozd\u00edly mezi \u00farovn\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch region\u016f a likvidovat zaostalost znev\u00fdhodn\u011bn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed by si vy\u017e\u00e1dala 60 \u2013 90 mld. eur.<\/p>\n

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Druh\u00fdm bodem, kter\u00fdm se summit bude zab\u00fdvat, je dlouhodob\u00e1 pomoc Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0hodnot\u011b 50 mld. eur. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee tyto pen\u00edze si EU bude muset vyp\u016fj\u010dit od bank. U\u017e to samo o sob\u011b je \u0161patn\u00e1 informace ve vztahu k\u00a0pot\u0159eb\u011b ozdravit evropsk\u00e9 finance. A tyto pen\u00edze jsou ve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi stvrzenkami posiluj\u00edc\u00edmi infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky v\u00a0zem\u00edch Evropsk\u00e9 unie. Oproti tomu vojensk\u00e1 pomoc EU Ukrajin\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 500 mil. eur p\u0159edstavuje v\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti jen drobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee EU si zchlad\u00ed za svou neschopnost \u017e\u00e1hu na Rusku p\u0159ijet\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edho bal\u00ed\u010dku unijn\u00edch sankc\u00ed. P\u0159itom je st\u00e1le z\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee unijn\u00ed sankce v\u016f\u010di Rusku p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed zejm\u00e9na st\u0159edo- a v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm EU vysokou inflaci a pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b obyvatel. Je ot\u00e1zka, jestli se tot\u00e9\u017e d\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct o Rusku, kde, jak se zd\u00e1, je inflace pln\u011b pod kontrolou jejich n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky a nep\u0159evy\u0161uje 3%.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1pu, \u017ee zejm\u00e9na N\u011bmecko pot\u0159ebuje vyv\u00e1\u017eet sv\u00e9 produkty na nov\u00fd trh. Ale to m\u016f\u017ee, pokud jde o Ukrajinu, stejn\u011b. Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru se Evropsk\u00e1 unie p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm rozhodnut\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u00edch a to nejen na Ukrajinu, dost\u00e1v\u00e1 na samu mez sv\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed kapacity.<\/p>\n

A\u017e za mez sv\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed se u\u017e d\u00e1vno dostala fantaskn\u00edmi rozhodnut\u00edmi Fialovy vl\u00e1dy \u010cesk\u00e1 republika. N\u00e1kupy zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1dech des\u00edtek miliard korun. Avizovan\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy 24 st\u00edha\u010dek F-35, kter\u00e9 si vy\u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed stamiliardy, dal\u0161\u00ed des\u00edtky miliard si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 servis t\u011bchto st\u00edha\u010dek. A k\u00a0tomu je\u0161t\u011b fantaz\u00edrov\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politick\u00e9 elity u\u017e za hranic\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010detnosti o v\u00fdstavb\u011b \u010dty\u0159 blok\u016f jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren za 2 biliony korun v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvaceti let. A m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla b\u00fdt jist\u00fdm korektorem t\u011bchto podivn\u00fdch n\u00e1pad\u016f nejen, \u017ee ml\u010d\u00ed, ale \u010dasto tyto neodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159edstavy je\u0161t\u011b podporuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A\u017e na v\u00fdjimky se nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 kritick\u00e1 debata na toto t\u00e9ma. Prost\u011b \u010cesko se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky, proto\u017ee jeho vl\u00e1da se z\u00a0politick\u00e9 abecedy se dostala od p\u00edsmene A, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b k\u00a0p\u00edsmenu B.<\/p>\n

A nyn\u00ed \u010cechy \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edval hr\u016fz, pokud se nepoda\u0159\u00ed rozumn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem naj\u00edt v\u00fdchodisko pro na cimprcampr rozbitou Ukrajinu. T\u00edm v\u00fdchodiskem ale nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v\u00a0EU.<\/p>\n

A pod\u00edvejme se je\u0161t\u011b na jeden faktor, kter\u00fd je, pokud jde o p\u0159istoupen\u00ed Ukrajiny velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd. A t\u00edm jsou p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1zory ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0zem\u00edch EU. Podle think-tanku ECFR si pouze 37% dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch v\u00a0\u0161esti vzorov\u00fdch zem\u00edch EU p\u0159eje \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v\u00a0EU. Ano, vysok\u00fd pod\u00edl dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch pro pln\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v\u00a0EU je v\u00a0Polsku (47%) a v\u00a0D\u00e1nsku (50%). Ale nap\u0159. ve\u00a0Francii si p\u0159eje \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v EU jen 29%, v\u00a0N\u011bmecku 37% a v\u00a0sousedn\u00edm Rakousku 28% lid\u00ed. U\u017e vid\u00edm l\u00eddry zem\u00ed, kde m\u00e1 \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny mezi obyvateli n\u00edzkou podporu, jak budou vehementn\u011b toto \u010dlenstv\u00ed prosazovat i p\u0159es nesouhlas v\u011bt\u0161iny vlastn\u00edho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Prost\u011b, rozumn\u00ed politici \u0159e\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci realisticky. Kdy\u017e po prvn\u00edch t\u00fddnech boj\u016f prob\u00edhaly loni v b\u0159eznu vcelku \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b m\u00edrov\u00e9 rozhovory mezi Ukrajinci a Rusy pod z\u00e1\u0161titou Turecka, hodili do nich vidle p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Britov\u00e9 (tehdej\u0161\u00ed premi\u00e9r Johnson) a tak\u00e9 Ameri\u010dan\u00e9. Prost\u011b nedok\u00e1zali realisticky vyhodnotit s\u00edlu Ruska. A tak\u00e9 s\u00edlu zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si p\u0159ej\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny sv\u011btov\u00e9ho po\u0159\u00e1dku. A\u0165 u\u017e je to \u010c\u00edna, Indie, Braz\u00edlie, Ji\u017en\u00ed Afrika, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Emir\u00e1ty, Turecko a \u0159ada dal\u0161\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Nepochybuji o tom, \u017ee na summitu EU budou premi\u00e9r Fiala a ministr Lipavsk\u00fd podporovat zcela nerealisticky rychl\u00fd vstup Ukrajiny do EU. Ale oba dva p\u00e1nov\u00e9 by si m\u011bli uv\u011bdomit, co to znamen\u00e1 a co by to je\u0161t\u011b znamenalo pro \u010cR, jej\u00ed\u017e ob\u010dan\u00e9 zaznamenali za tento a za minul\u00fd rok razantn\u00ed pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b. A v\u00fdhled na zlep\u0161en\u00ed ekonomiky \u010ceska a finan\u010dn\u00ed situace ob\u010dan\u016f v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd nen\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da by naopak m\u011bla pat\u0159it k\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00e9 stran\u011b v\u00a0r\u00e1mci EU, tak jako Ma\u010fa\u0159i, Slov\u00e1ci a brzy mo\u017en\u00e1 i Nizozemci.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dob\u0159\u00ed politici se od t\u011bch \u0161patn\u00fdch odli\u0161uj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee vid\u00ed trochu d\u00e1l ne\u017eli za prvn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,76,41,29,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42541"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}