{"id":42319,"date":"2023-12-12T00:45:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-11T23:45:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42319"},"modified":"2023-12-11T17:35:25","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T16:35:25","slug":"jiri-vyvadil-vojenske-vyhlidky-ukrajiny-a-zapadni-pomoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/12\/jiri-vyvadil-vojenske-vyhlidky-ukrajiny-a-zapadni-pomoc\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil: Vojensk\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky Ukrajiny a z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoc"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Nez\u00e1visl\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd port\u00e1l Strana UA ve sv\u00e9, jako v\u017edy skv\u011bl\u00e9 anal\u00fdze (10. 12. 2023) se mimo jin\u00e9 zab\u00fdval t\u00e9\u017e vlivem d\u011bn\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad\u011b k sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci na ukrajinsk\u00e9m boji\u0161ti. T\u00edm, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o ruskojazy\u010dn\u00fd port\u00e1l, lze pochopit, pro\u010d nepropad\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 depresi z v\u00fdvoje situace, ba mezi \u0159\u00e1dky lze vy\u010d\u00edst sympatie pro takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia o tomto v\u00edkendu zve\u0159ejnila celou s\u00e9rii \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f o probl\u00e9mech v ukrajinsk\u00e9m sm\u011bru.<\/p>\n

\u201eZ\u00e1pad v\u00e1h\u00e1 s Ukrajinou,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed Financial Times.<\/p>\n

\u201ePodpora Ukrajiny, kter\u00e1 byla kdysi z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9ho konsensu nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d stranami, se stala vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edm \u010dipem p\u0159i politick\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch na obou stran\u00e1ch Atlantiku,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed publikace.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed shrnut\u00ed je lapid\u00e1rn\u00ed:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

„Ukrajina u\u017e nen\u00ed n\u011b\u010d\u00edm v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00fdm. U\u017e nen\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako t\u00e9ma n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti prvo\u0159ad\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu pro EU, NATO nebo Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Kdyby tomu tak bylo, politika by se s Ukrajinou nehr\u00e1la. To je devalvace ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru se to ned\u00e1 hodnotit jinak. A to je pro Ukrajinu hrozn\u00e1 situace. Kdybyste byl Vladimir Putin, \u0159ekl byste: „No, moje strategick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed vydr\u017eet d\u00e9le, ne\u017e Z\u00e1pad funguje.“ \u0159ekl Jacob Kirkegaard z German Marshall Fund.<\/p>\n

Publikace p\u0159ipomn\u011bla, \u017ee Ukrajina pot\u0159ebuje p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok extern\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 41 miliard dolar\u016f.\u00a0Zat\u00edm je zaru\u010dena pouze \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto pen\u011bz, a pokud Kyjev nenajde zbytek, \u201emo\u017en\u00e1 bude muset vytisknout pen\u00edze, co\u017e by mohlo vyvolat hyperinflaci\u201c.<\/p>\n

A co teprve mo\u017en\u00fd n\u00e1stup Trumpa do \u00fa\u0159adu:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech se hlavn\u00ed obavy tisku, kter\u00fd podporuje politiku B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu, t\u00fdkaj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho vzestupu Donalda Trumpa k moci.\u00a0To by mohlo znamenat \u201evzd\u00e1t se Ukrajiny,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e New York Times.<\/p>\n

„Prvn\u00ed oblast\u00ed, kde by Trump\u016fv potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1vrat do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu v roce 2025 mohl vyvolat zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitickou krizi, je Ukrajina a aliance z\u00e1padn\u00edch demokraci\u00ed, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed jej\u00ed obranu proti rusk\u00e9 invazi,“ uvedl list.<\/p>\n

Trump bude m\u00edt \u201eobrovsk\u00fd vliv na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady\u201c a jeho sou\u010dasn\u00ed spojenci v Kongresu jsou proti zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pomoci do Kyjeva.<\/p>\n

A i kdyby Kongres kone\u010dn\u011b uvolnil dal\u0161\u00ed pomoc, „Trump by ji mohl odm\u00edtnout – jako to ud\u011blal v roce 2019, kdy\u017e se pokusil donutit Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby ozn\u00e1mil trestn\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed Bidena.“<\/p>\n

Na tomto pozad\u00ed je rusk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 strategie v tuto chv\u00edli vy\u010dk\u00e1vac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

„Podle \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f (Putin –\u00a0Ed.<\/strong>\u00a0) prov\u00e1d\u00ed \u00fatoky, kdy\u017e vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a p\u0159ip\u00edn\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly, ale nepodnik\u00e1 kroky ke zm\u011bn\u011b paradigmatu. Putin si spo\u010d\u00edtal, \u017ee po USA m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed pozici pod volb\u00e1ch v roce 2024,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e NYT.<\/p>\n

A \u010d\u00edsla tomu nahr\u00e1vaj\u00ed:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed pozn\u00e1mky o Trumpovi se stup\u0148uj\u00ed mimo jin\u00e9 proto, \u017ee jeho hodnocen\u00ed uk\u00e1zalo zna\u010dn\u00fd rozd\u00edl oproti Bidenovi: 47 % \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f pr\u016fzkumu Wall Street Journal je nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipraveno volit republik\u00e1na a pouze 43 % demokrata.<\/p>\n

Tento rozd\u00edl se je\u0161t\u011b zv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u2013 37 % oproti 31 %, kdy\u017e se k po\u010dtu p\u0159idaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed kandid\u00e1ti pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed volby.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fzkum Pew Research Center ukazuje, \u017ee asi t\u0159etina \u2013 31 % \u2013 Ameri\u010dan\u016f v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee pomoc Ukrajin\u011b by m\u011bla b\u00fdt omezena.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00edch 29 % se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pomoc je dostate\u010dn\u00e1 a 18 % po\u017eaduje jej\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mezi t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed podporuj\u00ed republik\u00e1ny, vzrostl pod\u00edl t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed po\u017eaduj\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed pomoci, ze 44 % na 48 %.\u00a0P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1me, \u017ee republik\u00e1ni nyn\u00ed ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed doln\u00ed komoru Kongresu USA a blokuj\u00ed vojenskou a ekonomickou pomoc Kyjevu.<\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mezi republik\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi voli\u010di s\u00edl\u00ed \u201eprotiukrajinsk\u00e9\u201c n\u00e1lady.\u00a0A mnoho pozorovatel\u016f na Z\u00e1pad\u011b ji\u017e za\u010dalo p\u0159edpov\u00eddat, \u017ee v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm volebn\u00edm roce republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strana nedovol\u00ed Bidenovi financovat Ukrajinu na pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovni.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I o tom se v t\u00e1bo\u0159e demokrat\u016f mluv\u00ed.\u00a0Podle jejich n\u00e1zoru republik\u00e1ni nehlasuj\u00ed pro pomoc Ukrajin\u011b ze strachu z \u201evnit\u0159n\u00edho p\u0159evratu\u201c.\u00a0Uvedl to kongresman Brendan Boyle.<\/p>\n

\u201ePokud jste republik\u00e1nsk\u00fdm mluv\u010d\u00edm, budete se o\u010dividn\u011b velmi ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee pokud p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00edte n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona, kter\u00fd zahrnuje jakoukoli pomoc Ukrajin\u011b, mohl by b\u00fdt pou\u017eit proti v\u00e1m jako sou\u010d\u00e1st druhu dom\u00e1c\u00edho p\u0159evratu, kter\u00fd „Vid\u011bl jsem v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.“ – \u0159ekl Boyle.<\/p>\n

Trefn\u011b je to vysti\u017eeno v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm komentu:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kongresman o\u010dividn\u011b mluvil o tom, \u017ee republik\u00e1ni odvolali p\u0159edsedu Kevina McCarthyho pot\u00e9, co se dohodl s B\u00edl\u00fdm domem na p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00ed pomoci Kyjevu k hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek vy\u0161el v britsk\u00e9m The Telegaph.\u00a0Nese n\u00e1zev „Putinovo Rusko se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed zdrcuj\u00edc\u00edmu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Z\u00e1klady Evropy se ot\u0159\u00e1saj\u00ed.“<\/p>\n

Sloupka\u0159 publikace Daniel Hannan analyzuje vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 aspekty \u201edrtiv\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c Rusk\u00e9 federace.\u00a0P\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee iniciativa na front\u011b p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 jednotky.<\/p>\n

\u201eNyn\u00ed je \u0159ada na Ukrajinc\u00edch, aby se zakopali a pokusili se dr\u017eet toho, co maj\u00ed,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e se v \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148, kdy\u017e mluv\u00edme o bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se z\u00e1kopov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, autor p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edklad prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a p\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee kdo vlo\u017e\u00ed v\u00edce sil, v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201ePrvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nakonec skon\u010dila \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b proto, \u017ee Spojenci m\u011bli v\u00edce pracovn\u00edch sil… Tentokr\u00e1t m\u00e1 demografickou v\u00fdhodu Rusko s t\u0159i\u010dtvrt\u011bn\u00e1sobnou populac\u00ed ne\u017e Ukrajina,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e se v \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n

\u201eRusko p\u0159e\u0161lo t\u0159etinu sv\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 civiln\u00ed v\u00fdroby na zbran\u011b a st\u0159elivo a nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00fdhodu, pokud jde o drony \u2013 modern\u00ed ekvivalent ostnat\u00e9ho dr\u00e1tu a kulomet\u016f, kter\u00e9 poskytly obr\u00e1nci takovou smrt\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdhodu v Prvn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 autor.<\/p>\n

A dal\u0161\u00ed zaj\u00edmavou \u00favahou je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed post\u0159eh<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e mluv\u00edme o politick\u00fdch probl\u00e9mech na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, Hannan v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee i kdy\u017e Trump nevyhraje volby v USA, republik\u00e1ni stejn\u011b nedovol\u00ed Bidenovi, aby v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm roce pomohl Kyjevu v po\u017eadovan\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Tato situace je podle autora podobn\u00e1 t\u00e9, kdy se republik\u00e1ni postavili proti vojensk\u00fdm akc\u00edm prezidenta Trumana v Koreji.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 situace se zem\u011bmi glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu podle Hannana nep\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ukrajiny.\u00a0P\u0159i popisu Putinov\u00fdch n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se autor ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zn\u00e1mkou dohody s Ruskem, kter\u00e1 by byla pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed demokracie \u201epohromou na \u00farovni Suezu\u201c (z\u0159ejm\u011b mluv\u00edme o ud\u00e1lostech roku 1957, kdy Egypt zn\u00e1rodnil Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav).<\/p>\n

Hannan proto vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k nalezen\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed, jak uzav\u0159\u00edt m\u00edr, ve kter\u00e9m by Rusk\u00e1 federace nevypadala jako jasn\u00fd v\u00edt\u011bz.<\/p>\n

\u00a0S\u00a0touto posledn\u00ed pozn\u00e1mkou ov\u0161em z\u00e1sadn\u011b nelze souhlasit. Je t\u0159eba obnovit takov\u00fd vztah, jako existoval ve sv\u011bt\u011b od konce 2.sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a\u017e do rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu. Z\u00e1pad mus\u00ed m\u00edt znovu respekt, aby Rusko neprovokoval. Jen tak na dal\u0161\u00edch 50.let bude zaji\u0161t\u011bn zase m\u00edr.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nez\u00e1visl\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd port\u00e1l Strana UA ve sv\u00e9, jako v\u017edy skv\u011bl\u00e9 anal\u00fdze (10. 12. 2023) se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11303,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[29,22,26,40,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42320,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42319\/revisions\/42320"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}