{"id":41735,"date":"2023-12-05T00:30:02","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T23:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=41735"},"modified":"2023-12-04T17:53:46","modified_gmt":"2023-12-04T16:53:46","slug":"obdobi-vyhodneho-sporeni-se-chyli-ke-konci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/05\/obdobi-vyhodneho-sporeni-se-chyli-ke-konci\/","title":{"rendered":"Obdob\u00ed v\u00fdhodn\u00e9ho spo\u0159en\u00ed se ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke konci"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politika, kterou nejen \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka (\u010cNB) moment\u00e1ln\u011b aplikuje skrze vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, je p\u0159\u00edmou odpov\u011bd\u00ed na infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky posledn\u00edch t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 24 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Tento omezuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup m\u00e1 v\u00a0ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b donutit banky a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 hr\u00e1\u010de na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch zm\u011bnit sv\u016fj typick\u00fd styl a vyu\u017e\u00edvat v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sazeb k ukl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voln\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f u \u010cNB na \u00fakor jejich nab\u00edzen\u00ed formou dluhov\u00fdch produkt\u016f \u0161irok\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti.<\/p>\n

Soub\u011b\u017en\u00fdm a\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm efektem je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b i zpomalen\u00ed ekonomiky jako takov\u00e9. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u00e1konit\u011b vedou k\u00a0dra\u017e\u0161\u00edmu financov\u00e1n\u00ed firem, co\u017e brzd\u00ed jejich r\u016fstov\u00e9 ambice. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 ke zm\u011bn\u011b chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 preference od utr\u00e1cen\u00ed k\u00a0\u00faspor\u00e1m. Ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity pak vede ke zpomalov\u00e1n\u00ed inflace, co\u017e je nyn\u00ed c\u00edlem \u010cNB.<\/p>\n

Na 7% \u00faro\u010den\u00ed se b\u011b\u017en\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk nedostane<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edch \u010dasto sklo\u0148ovan\u00e1 dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed REPO sazba je n\u00e1strojem, kter\u00fd centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00fdhradn\u011b v\u00a0r\u00e1mci sv\u00fdch transakc\u00ed s\u00a0komer\u010dn\u00edmi bankami. B\u011b\u017en\u00fd ob\u010dan se na st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed 7% \u00farove\u0148 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 bezrizikov\u00e9ho \u00faro\u010den\u00ed sv\u00e9 hotovosti nedostane. Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky si z t\u011bchto operac\u00ed s\u00a0depozity klient\u016f nechaj\u00ed sv\u016fj d\u00edl. Soud\u011b dle sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nab\u00eddky spo\u0159ic\u00edch a\u00a0term\u00ednovan\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f \u010din\u00ed tato \u201cprovize\u201d kolem dvou procentn\u00edch bod\u016f. Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5\u00a0% nab\u00eddnou za r\u016fzn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek sv\u00fdm klient\u016fm.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00e1m o sob\u011b je 5% bezrizikov\u00fd v\u00fdnos vlastn\u011b zaj\u00edmavou nab\u00eddkou, i kdy\u017e nyn\u00ed u\u017e sp\u00ed\u0161e kr\u00e1tkodobou. St\u0159adatel\u00e9 z\u00a0\u0159ad \u010desk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti jsou p\u0159itom st\u00e1le ve st\u0159etu s\u00a0nutnou ochrannou re\u00e1ln\u00e9 kupn\u00ed s\u00edly sv\u00fdch \u00faspor. Ani relativn\u011b vysok\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed toti\u017e samo o sob\u011b je\u0161t\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se poda\u0159\u00ed hodnotu pen\u011bz alespo\u0148 zachovat, nato\u017e nav\u00fd\u0161it. Pro akcie to nyn\u00ed plat\u00ed dvojn\u00e1sob. Rizikov\u011b averzn\u00ed investor m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm pohledem na v\u00fdkonnost hlavn\u00edch investi\u010dn\u00edch titul\u016f kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9ho trhu odrazen.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed indexy i p\u0159es silnou rally technologick\u00e9ho sektoru vykazuj\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ztr\u00e1ty, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed je dom\u00e9nou pouze \u00fazk\u00e9ho spektra vybran\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Ostatn\u011b kdy\u017e ze slavn\u00e9ho indexu S&P 500 odebereme 7 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, je za leto\u0161n\u00ed rok de facto na nule.<\/p>\n

\u201eNakupuj, kdy\u017e se ostatn\u00ed boj\u00ed\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Zku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nebo odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investor v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0korekc\u00edch v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du 10 a v\u00edce procent vid\u011bt zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. Zn\u00e1m\u00e9 kr\u00e9do \u201enakupuj, kdy\u017e se ostatn\u00ed boj\u00ed<\/em>\u201c s\u00a0ohledem na cykli\u010dnost kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9ho trhu plat\u00ed, ov\u0161em ne ka\u017ed\u00fd kol\u00edsavost hodnoty sv\u00fdch t\u011b\u017ece nast\u0159\u00e1dan\u00fdch \u00faspor snese.<\/p>\n

Jeliko\u017e je \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika v\u00a0technick\u00e9 recesi (o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd re\u00e1ln\u00fd \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt klesl ve dvou po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch), lze tak\u00e9 d\u00edky d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159\u016fm \u010dlen\u016f Bankovn\u00ed rady \u010cNB o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee ji\u017e na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed koncem prosince dojde alespo\u0148 k\u00a0symbolick\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00fd retailov\u00fd investor tak zat\u00edm je\u0161t\u011b m\u016f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edvat v\u00fdhodnosti \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb u\u00a0bank, obchodn\u00edk\u016f s\u00a0cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry i fond\u016f pen\u011b\u017en\u00edho trhu. O nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed l\u00e1kadlo v podob\u011b vysok\u00e9ho \u00faro\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ak spo\u0159ic\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty postupn\u011b p\u0159ijdou. Se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb \u010cNB budou lid\u00e9 nuceni op\u011bt podstupovat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko, nebo p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet, jak jejich pen\u00edze ztr\u00e1c\u00ed kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu.<\/p>\n

Autor: Patrik Novotn\u00fd<\/strong><\/em>
\nInvesti\u010dn\u00ed strat\u00e9g Colosseum, a.s.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politika, kterou nejen \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka (\u010cNB) moment\u00e1ln\u011b aplikuje skrze vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, je…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[528,59,45,286],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41735"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41735"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41737,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41735\/revisions\/41737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}