{"id":41507,"date":"2023-12-02T00:54:26","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T23:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=41507"},"modified":"2023-12-01T19:39:25","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T18:39:25","slug":"andrew-korybko-indonesie-by-se-po-nadchazejicich-volbach-v-unoru-mohla-otocit-na-zapad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/02\/andrew-korybko-indonesie-by-se-po-nadchazejicich-volbach-v-unoru-mohla-otocit-na-zapad\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Indon\u00e9sie by se po nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch volb\u00e1ch v \u00fanoru mohla oto\u010dit na Z\u00e1pad"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Indon\u00e9sie je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed muslimsk\u00e1 zem\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b, jej\u00ed \u010dtvrt\u00e1 nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b obecn\u011b a je jen na \u010dase, aby se do roku 2027 stala \u0161estou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomikou, co\u017e je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d by jak\u00e1koliv p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 zm\u011bna jej\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neza\u0159azen\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky po nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u00fanorov\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch mohla maj\u00ed dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro novou studenou v\u00e1lku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indon\u00e9sie jde v \u00fanoru k volb\u00e1m, aby zvolila sv\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho prezidenta, viceprezidenta a parlament, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e b\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby by se tato tradi\u010dn\u011b nesouvisej\u00edc\u00ed rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se mocnost mohla nakonec obr\u00e1tit na Z\u00e1pad, pokud se k\u00a0moci dostane b\u00fdval\u00fd guvern\u00e9r Jakarty\u00a0Anies Baswedan .\u00a0<\/a>Po studiu na Fulbrightov\u011b stipendiu\u00a0<\/a>je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho USA\u00a0, co\u017e dod\u00e1v\u00e1 kontext jeho\u00a0prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>z po\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu, \u017ee nahrad\u00ed \u201etransak\u010dn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku\u201c sv\u00e9 zem\u011b s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou politikou \u201ezalo\u017eenou na hodnot\u00e1ch\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Australsk\u00fd institut pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti v \u010dervnu vysv\u011btlil \u201e\u00a0Pro\u010d je indon\u00e9sk\u00fd prezidentsk\u00fd kandid\u00e1t Anies Baswedan pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u0161patnou zpr\u00e1vou pro \u010c\u00ednu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c.\u00a0Jejich \u010dl\u00e1nek upozornil na to, jak moc se v uplynul\u00e9m roce pot\u00fdkal se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch americk\u00fdch, p\u0159esto\u017ee ji\u017e nem\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed pozici ve vl\u00e1d\u011b pot\u00e9, co v \u0159\u00edjnu 2022 skon\u010dil ve funkci guvern\u00e9ra. To je neobvykl\u00e9 a nazna\u010duje to, \u017ee ‚ rekultivovat ho jako sv\u00e9ho agenta vlivu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee vyhraje volby.<\/p>\n

Ministr obrany Prabowo Subianto v sou\u010dasnosti vede s nejm\u00e9n\u011b desetibodov\u00fdm rozd\u00edlem\u00a0podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f\u00a0<\/a>z poloviny listopadu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Anies je na t\u0159et\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b za b\u00fdval\u00fdm guvern\u00e9rem centr\u00e1ln\u00ed J\u00e1vy Ganjarem Pranowem a zav\u00e1zal se\u00a0pokra\u010dovat\u00a0<\/a>v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice odstupuj\u00edc\u00edho prezidenta Joko \u201eJokowiho\u201c Widoda.\u00a0 Do celost\u00e1tn\u00edch voleb 14. \u00fanora zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce, tak\u017ee by se to mohlo zm\u011bnit.<\/p>\n

Anies se v guvern\u00e9rsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2017 uch\u00fdlil k\u00a0brut\u00e1ln\u00ed kampani politiky identity\u00a0<\/a>proti sv\u00e9mu b\u00fdval\u00e9mu k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00e9mu oponentovi, aby pronikl do banky tvrd\u00fdch islamist\u016f ve sv\u00e9 zemi, a proto men\u0161iny\u00a0p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e rokem\u00a0vyj\u00e1d\u0159ily znepokojen\u00ed pot\u00e9, co ozn\u00e1mil sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br kandidovat na prezidenta.\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0South\u00a0China Morning Post\u00a0<\/a>zve\u0159ejnil koncem \u0159\u00edjna \u010dl\u00e1nek o tom, jak se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ezna\u010dit se na \u201eum\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9ho\u201c, p\u0159esto\u017ee se op\u011bt spojil s islamistick\u00fdmi stranami, i kdy\u017e nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda usp\u011bje.<\/p>\n

Nelze tedy vylou\u010dit, \u017ee by se Anies mohl vr\u00e1tit ke sv\u00e9 nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 volebn\u00ed politice ze zoufalstv\u00ed, aby zv\u00fd\u0161il sv\u00e9 postaven\u00ed v pr\u016fzkumech p\u0159ed \u00fanorov\u00fdm hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd by mohl vstoupit do hry, je\u00a0\u00fadajn\u011b rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1zor ve\u0159ejnosti\u00a0<\/a>proti Jokowiho vn\u00edman\u00e9mu nepotismu pot\u00e9, co \u00fastavn\u00ed soud ned\u00e1vno vytvo\u0159il mezeru umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed jeho synovi kandidovat jako viceprezidenta za Prabowa.\u00a0Jeden pr\u016fzkum ze za\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu\u00a0<\/a>nazna\u010duje, \u017ee to ji\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eilo odvol\u00e1n\u00ed ministra obrany.<\/p>\n

Kombinace ozbrojen\u00e9 politiky identity, vn\u00edman\u00e9ho nepotismu, jak je vysv\u011btleno v\u00fd\u0161e, a vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Z\u00e1padu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch provokac\u00ed v informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lce proti Prabowovi, stejn\u011b jako mo\u017en\u00e9 instrumentalizace spojeneck\u00fdch \u201enevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed\u201c, by mohla v\u00e9st k n\u00e1r\u016fstu Anies v pr\u016fzkumech p\u0159ed \u00fanorov\u00fdm hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm.\u00a0Pokud vyhraje, jeho sl\u00edben\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika \u201ezalo\u017een\u00e1 na hodnot\u00e1ch\u201c by mohla v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee se Indon\u00e9sie v nov\u00e9\u00a0studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce p\u0159ipoj\u00ed k Z\u00e1padu\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e by m\u011blo dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro tuto glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konkurenci.<\/p>\n

Indon\u00e9sie je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed muslimsk\u00e1 zem\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b, jej\u00ed \u010dtvrt\u00e1 nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b obecn\u011b, a je jen na \u010dase, aby se do roku 2027 stala \u0161estou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomikou\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d jej\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku pozorn\u011b sleduj\u00ed mnoz\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0Jokowi se sna\u017eil napodobit\u00a0<\/a>politiku\u00a0indick\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Narendry Modiho zam\u011b\u0159enou na\u00a0vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed mezi\u00a0<\/a>zlatou\u00a0<\/a>miliardou\u00a0<\/a>Z\u00e1padu vedenou USA\u00a0a dohodou\u00a0Sino\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0Russo\u00a0<\/a>Entente\u00a0<\/a>, o n\u00ed\u017e se \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i mohou dozv\u011bd\u011bt v\u00edce, kdy\u017e si prohl\u00e9dnou tyto t\u0159i anal\u00fdzy:<\/p>\n

* 28. \u010dervna 2022: \u201e\u00a0V\u00fdklad indon\u00e9sk\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 11. listopadu 2022: \u201e\u00a0Indon\u00e9sie se bude muset v nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nakonec rozhodnout, na kter\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 stran\u011b stoj\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 1. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023: \u201e\u00a0Indon\u00e9sk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup vy\u010dk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed ke vstupu do BRICS je zaj\u00edmav\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

Ve snaze o vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 vztahy s ob\u011bma t\u011bmito dv\u011bma de facto bloky nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky Indon\u00e9sie\u00a0v \u0159\u00edjnu ofici\u00e1ln\u011b\u00a0prohloubila sv\u00e9 komplexn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou a pot\u00e9 o necel\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc pozd\u011bji v polovin\u011b listopadu\u00a0<\/a>ozn\u00e1mila komplexn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>s USA.\u00a0Tak\u00e9 zorganizovala\u00a0prvn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed ASEAN\u00a0<\/a>v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, ve stejn\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci, kdy se\u00a0\u00fa\u010dastnila mnohostrann\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>s USA.\u00a0Pr\u00e1v\u011b nyn\u00ed Indon\u00e9sie a USA prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed\u00a0bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>a\u017e do 11. prosince.<\/p>\n

Tento sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se Indon\u00e9sie\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017euje\u00a0<\/a>k USA, co\u017e nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee se postavila\u00a0proti nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed publikaci v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed mapy \u010c\u00edny\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 si podle v\u0161eho d\u011bl\u00e1 n\u00e1rok na n\u011bkter\u00e9 jej\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed v Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak \u010c\u00edna z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm partnerem pot\u00e9, co\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tkem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed\u00a0p\u0159isl\u00edbila v Indon\u00e9sii nov\u00e9 investice v hodnot\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 22 miliard dolar\u016f .\u00a0<\/a>To dokazuje, \u017ee ani jeden nechce, aby n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed spory br\u00e1nily jejich obchodn\u00edm vazb\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Existence takov\u00e9ho sporu by se p\u0159esto, \u017ee by se ho ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana sna\u017eila bagatelizovat, mohla st\u00e1t citliv\u00fdm volebn\u00edm t\u00e9matem, pokud by se Anies rozhodl z n\u011bj ud\u011blat spor, a\u0165 u\u017e z vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdsady, nebo na n\u00e1tlak sv\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch partner\u016f.\u00a0Tento faktor by se mohl p\u0159idat k v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm a mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u00e9st k jeho prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu v pr\u016fzkumech p\u0159ed \u00fanorov\u00fdmi volbami.\u00a0Jak bylo naps\u00e1no d\u0159\u00edve, Z\u00e1pad chce, aby vyhr\u00e1l, proto\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee jeho zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika \u201ezalo\u017een\u00e1 na hodnot\u00e1ch\u201c prosad\u00ed jejich z\u00e1jmy z Nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

V\u016fle lid\u00ed by m\u011bla b\u00fdt respektov\u00e1na bez ohledu na to, jak\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00fdsledek, ale m\u011bli by si b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 v\u011bdomi v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch her, kter\u00e9 se hraj\u00ed v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch volb\u00e1ch.\u00a0Nebo\u0165 jakkoli m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt Aniesova demagogick\u00e1 r\u00e9torika pro n\u011bkoho p\u0159ita\u017eliv\u00e1, nem\u011bli by ztr\u00e1cet ze z\u0159etele skute\u010dnost, \u017ee je preferovan\u00fdm kandid\u00e1tem Z\u00e1padu, proto\u017ee si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee bude dohl\u00ed\u017eet na indon\u00e9sk\u00e9 pivotov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u016f\u010di jejich bloku na \u00fakor jej\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u011b nezapojen\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky.\u00a0To by nesporn\u011b po\u0161kodilo vztahy s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou.<\/p>\n

Vzestup Indon\u00e9sie jako glob\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 velmoci by tedy v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i hrozil vykolejen\u00edm, proto\u017ee dosud vz\u00e1jemn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed a investi\u010dn\u00ed vazby s \u010c\u00ednou by mohly utrp\u011bt, pokud by na p\u0159\u00edkaz Z\u00e1padu za\u010dala \u0159in\u010det \u0161avlemi proti Lidov\u00e9 republice.\u00a0Tyto v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 vazby byly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za astronomick\u00fd r\u016fst Indon\u00e9sie, kter\u00e1 se do roku 2027 chyst\u00e1 u\u010dinit z n\u00ed \u0161estou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiku sv\u011bta. Pokud jsou ohro\u017eeny, mohou b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 ohro\u017eeny jej\u00ed velkolep\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, po kter\u00fdch by ji Z\u00e1pad mohl vyu\u017e\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Abychom to vysv\u011btlili, Indon\u00e9sie pot\u0159ebuje pokra\u010dovat v r\u016fstu sv\u00fdm sou\u010dasn\u00fdm tempem, aby vyrovnala demografick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my dom\u00e1c\u00ed stability.\u00a0Pokud bude tato trajektorie vykolejena v d\u016fsledku \u0161kod, kter\u00e9 si Z\u00e1pad s\u00e1m zp\u016fsobil na sv\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch vazb\u00e1ch s \u010c\u00ednou, pak by se nezam\u011bstnanost mohla znovu st\u00e1t probl\u00e9mem se v\u0161\u00edm, co s sebou nese souvisej\u00edc\u00ed politick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozby.\u00a0Ty by mohly m\u00edt podobu\u00a0barevn\u00e9 revoluce\u00a0<\/a>, zb\u00edda\u010den\u00fdch lid\u00ed obracej\u00edc\u00edch se k radikalismu a dal\u0161\u00edch teroristicko-separatistick\u00fdch hrozeb.<\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Indon\u00e9sie mohla b\u00fdt snadn\u011bji rozd\u011blena a ovl\u00e1d\u00e1na Z\u00e1padem, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud se tento blok rozhodne podporovat protist\u00e1tn\u00ed hnut\u00ed.\u00a0Jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak se s jistotou br\u00e1nit\u00a0t\u011bmto hrozb\u00e1m hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky,\u00a0<\/a>je, aby Indon\u00e9sie udr\u017eovala vz\u00e1jemn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed a investi\u010dn\u00ed vazby s \u010c\u00ednou, co\u017e tak vy\u017eaduje zachov\u00e1n\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy.\u00a0Aniesovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch by mohlo vy\u00fastit v proz\u00e1padn\u00ed pivot, kter\u00fd tyto vztahy zni\u010d\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b proto by si voli\u010di m\u011bli dvakr\u00e1t rozmyslet, ne\u017e ho podpo\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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Indon\u00e9sie je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed muslimsk\u00e1 zem\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b, jej\u00ed \u010dtvrt\u00e1 nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b obecn\u011b a je jen…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41506,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2181,709,27,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41507"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41508,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41507\/revisions\/41508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}