{"id":41368,"date":"2023-12-01T00:31:47","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T23:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=41368"},"modified":"2023-11-30T14:39:14","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T13:39:14","slug":"tri-grafy-ktere-ukazuji-ze-zadna-klimaticka-krize-neexistuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/01\/tri-grafy-ktere-ukazuji-ze-zadna-klimaticka-krize-neexistuje\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u0159i grafy, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u201eklimatick\u00e1 krize\u201c neexistuje"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad oslabuje pr\u016fmyslovou civilizaci t\u00edm, \u017ee se pokou\u0161\u00ed eliminovat ropu, uhl\u00ed a zemn\u00ed plyn jako zdroje energie, v\u011bdeck\u00fd z\u00e1klad pro Net Zero je zalo\u017een sp\u00ed\u0161e na \u201eobecn\u00e9m konsensu\u201c ne\u017e na tvrd\u00fdch datech<\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Klimatologov\u00e9 st\u00e1le zn\u00ed optimisticky, pokud jde o pokrok, jeho\u017e bylo dosa\u017eeno v ni\u010den\u00ed uhl\u00edkov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b existuje kritika my\u0161lenky apokalypsy vyvolan\u00e9 oxidem uhli\u010dit\u00fdm, kter\u00e1 je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti podporov\u00e1na obecn\u00fdmi modely ob\u011bhu (tedy pro celou Zemi).\u00a0Existuje p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho r\u016fzn\u00fdch GCM s p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoha voln\u00fdmi parametry (tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1m\u00fdmi jako \u201efudge faktory\u201c), stejn\u011b jako divoce se li\u0161\u00edc\u00ed \u00fadaje o historick\u00e9m klimatick\u00e9m z\u00e1znamu: jsou n\u00e1siln\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 jevy opravdu \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a jak vlastn\u011b po\u010das\u00ed souvis\u00ed s klima?\u00a0Bulv\u00e1r k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed, ale \u00fadaje nejsou tak jasn\u00e9.\u00a0Hroz\u00edc\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady \u010dist\u00e9ho nulov\u00e9ho c\u00edle vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fd politick\u00fd tlak.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 osvobozen\u00ed dev\u00edti vandal\u016f Extinction Rebellion p\u0159esto ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00e1\u0161niv\u00e1 v\u00edra v hroz\u00edc\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed CO2 se neomezuje pouze na aktivisty.<\/p>\n

Klimatick\u00e1 v\u011bda je slo\u017eit\u00e1, ale kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka je jednoduch\u00e1.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se klima otepluje, ale jsme za to zodpov\u011bdn\u00ed my?\u00a0M\u00e1 mno\u017estv\u00ed atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vliv na teplotu Zem\u011b?\u00a0Standardn\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f je \u201eano, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b\u201c.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti existuj\u00ed dobr\u00e9 d\u016fvody k pochybnostem.<\/p>\n

Popul\u00e1rn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o \u201eklimatick\u00e9 nouzi\u201c z\u0159\u00eddka obsahuj\u00ed kvantitativn\u00ed \u00fadaje.\u00a0Existuje v\u0161ak \u0161iroce dostupn\u00e1 grafika, kter\u00e9 rozum\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd.\u00a0Zde jsou t\u0159i grafy, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u201ene\u201c.\u00a0Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee po ur\u010dit\u00e9 dob\u011b bude m\u00edt oxid uhli\u010dit\u00fd relativn\u011b mal\u00fd vliv na teplotu planety.<\/p>\n

Velmi dlouhodob\u00fd historick\u00fd z\u00e1znam<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Tento graf je kontroverzn\u00ed jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee odhady koncentrace CO2 a teploty p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e byly teplom\u011bry \u0161iroce dostupn\u00e9 \u2013 tedy b\u011bhem 99,99 % historie Zem\u011b \u2013 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt provedeny nep\u0159\u00edmo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm proxy, jako jsou ledov\u00e1 j\u00e1dra, prstence strom\u016f a m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed izotop\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pokud je tento graf glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty a koncentrace CO2 za posledn\u00edch 600 milion\u016f let t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 platn\u00fd, ukazuje to dv\u011b v\u011bci:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  1. Podle jednoho odborn\u00edka jsou hladiny oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e nyn\u00ed\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli v historii Zem\u011b<\/em>\u00a0, s v\u00fdjimkou obdob\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edho po vyhynut\u00ed na konci permu a za\u010d\u00e1tku fanerozoika (tj. asi p\u0159ed 550 miliony let). ).\u00a0[zv\u00fdrazn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159id\u00e1no]\u201d<\/li>\n
  2. Mezi \u00farovn\u011bmi CO2 a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplotou neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 korelace: kdy\u017e jsou \u00farovn\u011b CO2 vysok\u00e9, teplota m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00edzk\u00e1 a naopak.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Druh\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br je m\u00e9n\u011b jist\u00fd ne\u017e prvn\u00ed.\u00a0Jist\u00e9 v\u0161ak je, \u017ee \u017eivot obratlovc\u016f na Zemi prosperoval p\u0159i mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch koncentrac\u00edch CO2 ne\u017e dnes.<\/p>\n

    Dlouhodob\u00fd historick\u00fd rekord<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Korelace mezi CO2 a teplotou je mnohem jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na krat\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b 800 000 let, jak ukazuje dal\u0161\u00ed graf (co\u017e nen\u00ed v\u016fbec kontroverzn\u00ed).\u00a0Graf ukazuje teplotu (\u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra) a \u010dty\u0159i odhady atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO2 ze studi\u00ed EPICA o antarktick\u00e9m ledov\u00e9m d\u00f3mu za obdob\u00ed 800 000 let.<\/p>\n

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    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    Z tohoto grafu lze vyvodit dva hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    1. V tomto \u010dasov\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku jsou koncentrace CO2 a teplota siln\u011b korelov\u00e1ny: CO2 a teplota rostou a klesaj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b.<\/li>\n
    2. N\u00e1r\u016fst CO2 v\u0161ak\u00a0spolehliv\u011b zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za<\/em>\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm teploty, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee zm\u011bny CO2 jsou zp\u016fsobeny zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm teploty a ne naopak.\u00a0Zde je d\u016fvod: Jak se oce\u00e1ny oh\u0159\u00edvaj\u00ed, uvol\u0148uj\u00ed se plyny v\u010detn\u011b CO2, kdy\u017e se ochlazuj\u00ed, atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fd CO2 je absorbov\u00e1n;\u00a0tepl\u00e1 voda pojme m\u00e9n\u011b rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9ho plynu ne\u017e studen\u00e1 voda (v\u011bt\u0161ina zemsk\u00e9ho CO2 je ulo\u017eena v oce\u00e1nech).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Existuj\u00ed argumenty zalo\u017een\u00e9 na pozitivn\u00ed zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazb\u011b, kter\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee a\u010dkoli oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed oce\u00e1n\u016f p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e n\u00e1sleduje, n\u00e1r\u016fst CO2, skute\u010dn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina je naopak: CO2 zp\u016fsobuje oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, nikoli naopak.\u00a0Nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1v\u011brem v\u0161ak je, \u017ee velk\u00e9 zm\u011bny atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO2 jsou zp\u016fsobeny sp\u00ed\u0161e zm\u011bnami planet\u00e1rn\u00ed teploty ne\u017e naopak.<\/p>\n

      Fyzika<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      Kone\u010dn\u00fd diagram poch\u00e1z\u00ed z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho dlouh\u00e9ho \u010dl\u00e1nku dvou fyzik\u016f, Williama Wijngaardena (York University, Toronto) a Williama Happera (Princeton).\u00a0\u010cl\u00e1nek se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed fyzikou sklen\u00edkov\u00e9ho efektu vzhledem k fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edm vlastnostem vzduchu a n\u011bkolika n\u00edzk\u00fdm koncentrac\u00edm sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f (CO2, oxid dusn\u00fd a metan), kter\u00e9 obsahuje.<\/p>\n

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      \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

      Modr\u00e1 k\u0159ivka ve tvaru zvonu ukazuje mno\u017estv\u00ed slune\u010dn\u00ed energie (na r\u016fzn\u00fdch vlnov\u00fdch d\u00e9lk\u00e1ch, osa x) vyza\u0159ovan\u00e9 do vesm\u00edru Zem\u00ed bez atmosf\u00e9ry.\u00a0(V\u011bt\u0161ina z toho je v infra\u010derven\u00e9m rozsahu 400-1000 nebo tak n\u011bjak.) Zelen\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra je proud\u011bn\u00ed s atmosf\u00e9rou bez CO2, ale se v\u0161emi ostatn\u00edmi sklen\u00edkov\u00fdmi plyny v jejich standardn\u00edch koncentrac\u00edch.\u00a0\u010cern\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra plat\u00ed pro v\u0161echny sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny v\u010detn\u011b CO2 v jejich standardn\u00edch koncentrac\u00edch.\u00a0\u010cerven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra je pro dvojn\u00e1sobek standardn\u00ed koncentrace CO2 (400 a\u017e 800 ppm), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00e9 plyny z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nezm\u011bn\u011bny.<\/p>\n

      P\u0159i 400 ppm m\u00e1 CO2 ve skute\u010dnosti sklen\u00edkov\u00fd efekt: emitovan\u00e1 energie je sn\u00ed\u017eena ve frekven\u010dn\u00edm rozsahu 500-700.\u00a0Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na 800 ppm v\u0161ak nem\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek \u2013 \u010dern\u00e9 a \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 toto\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0Zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed standardn\u00ed koncentrace CO2 ze 400 na 800 ppm nem\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fd efekt.<\/p>\n

      Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      Dohromady by tyto t\u0159i \u00fadaje m\u011bly ka\u017ed\u00e9ho p\u0159im\u011bt k pochybnostem o tom, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b CO2 p\u0159edstavuje jakoukoli hrozbu pro \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed.\u00a0Zem\u011b se mo\u017en\u00e1 otepluje, ale je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by za to mohl CO2.\u00a0Je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee tyto zm\u011bny jsou \u017eivotu nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 nebo \u017ee oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed bude pokra\u010dovat donekone\u010dna \u2013 za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee za to nemohou lid\u00e9.\u00a0Je \u010das p\u0159estat panika\u0159it.\u00a0Poj\u010fme dos\u00e1hnout Net Zero.<\/p>\n

      Autor Tyler Durden<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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      ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

       <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad oslabuje pr\u016fmyslovou civilizaci t\u00edm, \u017ee se pokou\u0161\u00ed eliminovat ropu, uhl\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34705,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2692,873,1100,839],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41368"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41368"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41368\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41369,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41368\/revisions\/41369"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}