{"id":41213,"date":"2023-11-29T01:00:50","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T00:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=41213"},"modified":"2023-11-28T11:06:37","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T10:06:37","slug":"svetova-banka-a-studie-ktera-ohlasuje-evropskou-energetickou-apokalypsu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/11\/29\/svetova-banka-a-studie-ktera-ohlasuje-evropskou-energetickou-apokalypsu\/","title":{"rendered":"Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka a studie, kter\u00e1 ohla\u0161uje evropskou energetickou apokalypsu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Izraelsk\u00e1 ofenziva v Gaze m\u00e1 d\u016fsledky nejen pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, ale tak\u00e9 pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropu.\u00a0Protiofenz\u00edva arabsk\u00e9ho sv\u011bta proti Tel Avivu by mohla uvrhnout \u201estar\u00fd kontinent\u201c do energetick\u00e9 krize.\u00a0O tom se diskutuje v z\u00e1padn\u00edch st\u00e1tn\u00edch \u00fa\u0159adech, kde panuj\u00ed obavy, \u017ee EU p\u0159ijde o dal\u0161\u00edho dodavatele ropy a plynu pot\u00e9, co byl na p\u0159\u00edkaz B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu zak\u00e1z\u00e1n dovoz z Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00edm vyd\u00e1n\u00ed National 22. listopadu jsem napsal, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je st\u0159edem celosv\u011btov\u00e9 pozornosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 se zde velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s ropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Po izraelsk\u00e9 odvet\u011b za \u00fatok Ham\u00e1su ze 7. \u0159\u00edjna provedla Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka anal\u00fdzu geopolitick\u00fdch rizik, aby zhodnotila dopad tohoto ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu na sv\u011btov\u00e9 ceny ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie rozd\u011bluje eskalaci izraelsko-palestinsk\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed do t\u0159\u00ed \u00farovn\u00ed: n\u00edzkou, st\u0159edn\u00ed a vysokou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i \u201en\u00edzk\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed\u201c podobn\u00e9m v\u00e1lce v Libyi v roce 2011 Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy poklesnou o 500 000 a\u017e 2 miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b.\u00a0To by vedlo k po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen ropy o 3 a\u017e 13 % na 93 a\u017e 102 USD za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i \u201est\u0159edn\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee\u201c, srovnateln\u00e9m s v\u00e1lkou v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003, Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 pokles glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek ropy o 3 a\u017e 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho by tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 vyvolal po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ceny ropy o 21 % a\u017e 35 % (n\u00e1klady mezi 109 a 121 USD za barel).<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, v \u201emaxim\u00e1ln\u00edm stresov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i\u201c, kter\u00fd by se dal p\u0159irovnat nap\u0159\u00edklad k arabsk\u00e9mu ropn\u00e9mu embargu z roku 1973, Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles nab\u00eddky ropy o 6 a\u017e 8 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.\u00a0Hovo\u0159\u00edme o skute\u010dn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 apokalypse, proto\u017ee cena ropy vzroste o 56 a\u017e 75 % a prodejn\u00ed n\u00e1klady vylet\u00ed a\u017e na 157 dolar\u016f za barel ropy!<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Evropu p\u0159edstavuje ka\u017ed\u00fd ze t\u0159\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f katastrofu, jej\u00ed\u017e rozsah z\u00e1vis\u00ed na intenzit\u011b izraelsko-palestinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.\u00a0V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je to katastrofa, proto\u017ee EU u\u017e mus\u00ed nakupovat energetick\u00e9 zdroje za p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 ceny, aby kompenzovala v\u00fdpadek dovozu z Rusk\u00e9 federace.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se studie Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky nezab\u00fdvala dopadem rostouc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed na ceny plynu v regionu, zd\u016fraznila, jak jsou energetick\u00e9 zdroje propojen\u00e9.\u00a0Pokud dojde k poklesu dod\u00e1vek ropy, budou ovlivn\u011bny i dal\u0161\u00ed zdroje energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa, zotro\u010den\u00e1 energie<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa je kontinentem, kter\u00fd bude s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed posti\u017een v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm cen plynu, proto\u017ee byla odpojena od sv\u00e9ho hlavn\u00edho zdroje energie v pr\u016fb\u011bhu minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed a d\u00e1le.\u00a0Dnes je EU z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9m zemn\u00edm plynu (LNG), kter\u00fd je p\u0159epravov\u00e1n USA a prod\u00e1v\u00e1n za p\u0159\u00edplatek sv\u00fdm vazal\u016fm, pardon, evropsk\u00fdm partner\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ale krom\u011b bezprost\u0159edn\u00edho dopadu eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed izraelsko-palestinsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 \u017eene nahoru ceny ropy a plynu, \u010del\u00ed Evropa \u0159ad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly m\u00edt trval\u00fd dopad na export energie z arabsk\u00e9ho sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zapojen\u00ed zem\u00ed \u201eOsy odporu\u201c, jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n, Jemen, Ir\u00e1k, S\u00fdrie a Libanon, do obrany palestinsk\u00e9 v\u011bci by mohlo m\u00edt v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.\u00a0Tyto st\u00e1ty, z nich\u017e v\u0161echny maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k mo\u0159i a pr\u016fliv\u016fm, jsou schopny naru\u0161it obchodn\u00ed cesty do Evropy, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159epravy ropy a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv Hovo\u0159il jsem o tom, \u017ee le\u017e\u00ed mezi Om\u00e1nem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem a m\u00e1 nesm\u00edrn\u00fd v\u00fdznam jako hlavn\u00ed trasa pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159epravu ropy.\u00a0Na tento koridor se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed hlavn\u00ed zem\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed ropu \u2013 Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Kuvajt a Ir\u00e1k.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho Katar, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdvozce zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu, p\u0159epravuje sv\u016fj zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 \u00fadaje ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee 20 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch tok\u016f zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu proch\u00e1z\u00ed touto \u00fa\u017einou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tedy snadn\u00e9 vid\u011bt, \u017ee uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu \u00cdr\u00e1nem a\/nebo jeho spojenci by naru\u0161ilo evropsk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky ropy a plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak Palestina krv\u00e1c\u00ed, Evropa zaplat\u00ed cenu za svou duplicitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b Hormuzu je v s\u00e1zce tak\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnost pr\u016flivu Bab El-Mandeb, strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Jemenu, kter\u00fd je kl\u00ed\u010dovou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed obchodn\u00ed cesty spojuj\u00edc\u00ed St\u0159edozemn\u00ed mo\u0159e s Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem p\u0159es Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e. a Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav.\u00a0Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdvozu LNG z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b touto cestou a p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 10 % ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ropy a rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f p\u0159epravovan\u00fdch po mo\u0159i je ur\u010deno do Evropy \u2013 v\u00edce ne\u017e polovina!<\/span><\/p>\n

Uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu Bab el-Mandeb by p\u0159inutilo ropn\u00e9 tankery z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu odklonit se do ji\u017en\u00ed Afriky, co\u017e by prodlou\u017eilo dobu p\u0159epravy a n\u00e1klady na p\u0159epravu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed z\u00e1sadn\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa se mus\u00ed rozhodnout.\u00a0Bu\u010f p\u0159ijme placen\u00ed p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch cen za nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00fd tok ropy a plynu s rizikem, \u017ee se dostane pod siln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak, nebo p\u0159ehodnot\u00ed sv\u016fj postoj k rusk\u00e9mu dovozu a znovu usedne k jednac\u00edmu stolu s Moskvou.\u00a0V druh\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b EU vyvol\u00e1 hn\u011bv str\u00fd\u010dka Sama, ne-li je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed!<\/span><\/p>\n

Na geopolitick\u00e9 map\u011b OPEC+ s podporou \u010c\u00edny a Ruska (p\u0159ijet\u00edm Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f do BRICS+) ukazuje sv\u011btu, \u017ee m\u00e1 schopnosti a mo\u017enosti, ze kter\u00fdch bude b\u011bhat mr\u00e1z po z\u00e1dech cel\u00e9mu Z\u00e1padu, z Washingtonu. do Bruselu Honba za z\u00e1dy a z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bna glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho trhu, jak ho zn\u00e1me dnes.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Izraelsk\u00e1 ofenziva v Gaze m\u00e1 d\u016fsledky nejen pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, ale tak\u00e9 pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropu.\u00a0Protiofenz\u00edva…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41214,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[528,285,283,371,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41213"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}