{"id":41198,"date":"2023-11-28T04:19:11","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T03:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=41198"},"modified":"2023-11-28T04:19:11","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T03:19:11","slug":"conor-gallagher-zapad-se-blizi-k-dalsimu-silenstvi-v-baltskem-mori","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/11\/28\/conor-gallagher-zapad-se-blizi-k-dalsimu-silenstvi-v-baltskem-mori\/","title":{"rendered":"Conor Gallagher: Z\u00e1pad se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k dal\u0161\u00edmu \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
V Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i \u2013 domov\u011b pokroucen\u00fdch trosek plynovodu Nord Stream \u2013 bylo ned\u00e1vno po\u0161kozeno dal\u0161\u00ed potrub\u00ed spolu s telekomunika\u010dn\u00edmi kabely. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed eskala\u010dn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed a znovu se objevuje my\u0161lenka uzav\u0159\u00edt \u201ejezero NATO<\/a>\u201c pro rusk\u00e9 lod\u011b, co\u017e by Moskva pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pova\u017eovala za v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt. Na pevnin\u011b Finsko rychle militarizuje svou hranici s Ruskem. A v centru ohniv\u00e9 bou\u0159e se nyn\u00ed ocitla pozoruhodn\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lo\u010f.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
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Nov\u00fd Ledn\u00ed medv\u011bd<\/h2>\n

O v\u00edkendu 8. \u0159\u00edjna do\u0161lo k neobvykl\u00e9mu poklesu tlaku ve finsko-estonsk\u00e9m plynovodu Baltic-connector. Do r\u00e1na 10. \u0159\u00edjna vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zjistilo, \u017ee potrub\u00ed prasklo. Po\u0161kozeny byly tak\u00e9 telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed kabely spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Finsko, Estonsko a \u0160v\u00e9dsko a rusk\u00fd telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed kabel ve Finsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/p>\n

Do 20. \u0159\u00edjna Finsko a Estonsko uk\u00e1zaly prstem na Newnew Polar Bear \u2013 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 plavidlo. Finsk\u00fd N\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ad pro vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edlo\u017eil velkou kotvu nalezenou pobl\u00ed\u017e po\u0161kozen\u00e9ho potrub\u00ed, o n\u00ed\u017e se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee pat\u0159ila 169 metr\u016f dlouh\u00e9 lodi a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se utrhla, kdy\u017e byla vle\u010dena po mo\u0159sk\u00e9m dn\u011b. Vy\u0161et\u0159ovatel\u00e9 nevysv\u011btlili teorii, jak p\u0159esn\u011b kotva po\u0161kodila telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed kabely na protilehl\u00fdch stran\u00e1ch potrub\u00ed a odlomila se u Baltic-connectoru.<\/p>\n

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\"[...]\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

P\u0159esnou vzd\u00e1lenost mezi Baltic-connectorem a telekomunika\u010dn\u00edmi kabely se nepoda\u0159ilo vyp\u00e1trat, ale finsk\u00fd telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed oper\u00e1tor Elisa agentu\u0159e Reuters\u00a0sd\u011blil<\/a>, \u017ee vzd\u00e1lenost mezi nimi byla \u201ezna\u010dn\u00e1\u201c.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b se spekuluje o tom, \u017ee po\u0161kozen\u00ed plynovodu a kabel\u016f by bylo t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 prov\u00e9st, ani\u017e bychom o tom v\u011bd\u011bli.\u00a0Podle<\/a>\u00a0Insurance Marine News:<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1lo se nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 a\u017e nemo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by pos\u00e1dka o t\u00e9to ud\u00e1losti nev\u011bd\u011bla, proto\u017ee ud\u00e1lost by lo\u010f dramaticky a necht\u011bn\u011b zpomalila. Pokud by kotva spadla n\u00e1hodou a narazila do plynov\u00e9ho potrub\u00ed, mohlo doj\u00edt k jeho v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu po\u0161kozen\u00ed. Pokud by kotva uv\u00edzla na mo\u0159sk\u00e9m dn\u011b, nemohla by proj\u00edt bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed, proto\u017ee by se zpomalila rychlost a lo\u010f by se naklonila.<\/em>Finsk\u00fd den\u00edk Helsingin Sanomat 23. \u0159\u00edjna\u00a0napsal<\/a>, \u017ee Newnew Polar Bear se za \u0161patn\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed zastavila 1,4 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed m\u00edle od plynovodu asi na osm minut, ne\u017e pokra\u010dovala d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Brzy se za\u010daly \u0161\u00ed\u0159it sn\u00edmky Newnew Polar Bear, na nich\u017e chyb\u00ed kotva:<\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnost Newnew Shipping Co. se k t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti nevyj\u00e1d\u0159ila. Finsko a Estonsko mezit\u00edm ofici\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159edlo\u017eily \u010c\u00edn\u011b pr\u00e1vn\u00ed v\u00fdzvu ke spolupr\u00e1ci v r\u00e1mci prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Peking p\u0159isl\u00edbil plnou spolupr\u00e1ci, i kdy\u017e je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna nebude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 ochotn\u00e1 pomoci Estonsku, kter\u00e9 Tchaj-wanu umo\u017e\u0148uje z\u0159\u00eddit v Tallinnu vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ad. Estonsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed ned\u00e1vno toto rozhodnut\u00ed zdvojn\u00e1sobil a\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>, \u017ee c\u00edlem zem\u011b je spolupracovat \u201es podobn\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00edmi partnery, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm s na\u0161imi transatlantick\u00fdmi spojenci\u201c.<\/p>\n

Ji\u017e se objevila obvin\u011bn\u00ed ze spiknut\u00ed Rus\u016f a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f, proto\u017ee lo\u010f Newnew Polar Bear\u00a0pluje pod hongkongskou vlajkou<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0m\u011bla povolen\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0k plavb\u011b po Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cest\u011b vydan\u00e9 Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed spr\u00e1vou Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cesty adresovan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Torgmoll, kter\u00e1 je registrovan\u00e1 v Rusku a m\u00e1 kancel\u00e1\u0159e v Moskv\u011b a \u0160anghaji. A\u010dkoli to n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed za jakousi\u00a0kou\u0159\u00edc\u00ed zbra\u0148<\/a>, je to jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0spole\u010dn\u00fd projekt<\/a>\u00a0dvou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed \u2013 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed lodn\u00ed linky Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co a n\u00e1kladn\u00edho agenta Torgmoll. Rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed podnik Rosatom rovn\u011b\u017e poskytuje informa\u010dn\u00ed a naviga\u010dn\u00ed podporu pro nov\u011b zavedenou kontejnerovou dopravu po Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cest\u011b mezi \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskem.<\/p>\n

Sari Arho Havren, spolupracovn\u00edk lond\u00fdnsk\u00e9ho Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9ho institutu Spojen\u00fdch slu\u017eeb,\u00a0sd\u011blil<\/a>\u00a0RFE\/RL n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e byl tento incident \u00famysln\u00fd, nebo ne, je to n\u011bco, z \u010deho mohou m\u00edt prosp\u011bch jak Rusko, tak \u010c\u00edna. I kdy\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee jednat o mal\u00fd rozsah, op\u011bt odv\u00e1d\u00ed pozornost a zdroje NATO od jin\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch ohnisek.<\/em>Rusko jakoukoli \u00fa\u010dast pop\u0159elo a mluv\u010d\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Mao Ning se k t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti ned\u00e1vno\u00a0vyj\u00e1d\u0159il<\/a>\u00a0takto:<\/p>\n

Douf\u00e1me, \u017ee se p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 strany budou \u0159\u00eddit z\u00e1sadami objektivity, spravedlnosti a profesionality a brzy zjist\u00ed, co se stalo. \u010c\u00edna je p\u0159ipravena poskytnout pot\u0159ebnou pomoc v souladu s mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm pr\u00e1vem.<\/em>Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee lo\u010f Newnew Polar Bear m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam ne\u017e jen \u00fadajn\u00fd pod\u00edl na incidentu s plynovodem a komunika\u010dn\u00edmi kabely.\u00a0Z \u010dasopisu Maritime Executive:<\/a><\/p>\n

V dal\u0161\u00ed uk\u00e1zce snahy o roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy pod\u00e9l rusk\u00e9 Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cesty se kontejnerov\u00e1 lo\u010f Newnew Polar Bear (15 950 dwt), vlastn\u011bn\u00e1 \u010c\u00ednou, stala prvn\u00ed lod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 po \u0161estit\u00fddenn\u00ed plavb\u011b dorazila do rusk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu v Kaliningradu. Gubern\u00e1tor Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti Anton Alichanov tento \u00fasp\u011bch uv\u00edtal na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu na Telegramu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Plavidlo z\u00edskala na za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku nov\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 lodn\u00ed spole\u010dnost Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co. a za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u010dervence zah\u00e1jilo plavbu z Petrohradu. Na zp\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed cestu z \u010c\u00edny se vydala koncem srpna, v \u00fater\u00fd dorazila do Kaliningradu a str\u00e1vila t\u0159i dny v doku. Lo\u010f registrovan\u00e1 v Hongkongu je 554 stop dlouh\u00e1 a m\u00e1 kapacitu 1 600 TEU.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed snahy o roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed obchodu mezi \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskem a n\u00e1r\u016fst dopravy po Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cest\u011b. Prezident Vladimir Putin na\u0159\u00eddil org\u00e1n\u016fm, kter\u00e9 na trasu dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed, aby v roce 2024 zv\u00fd\u0161ily ro\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159epravu na 80 milion\u016f tun.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eDopravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed, \u017ee tento logistick\u00fd produkt bude trval\u00fd. Ukazuje se, \u017ee je levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a rychlej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159es Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e Alichanov propaguj\u00edc\u00ed stranickou linii na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu na Telegramu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Newnew byl tedy tak\u00e9 symbolick\u00fdm miln\u00edkem pro rostouc\u00ed obchod mezi Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou po trase p\u0159es Severn\u00ed mo\u0159e \u2013 sou\u010d\u00e1st arktick\u00e9 posledn\u00ed hranice nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kde m\u00e1 Rusko ji\u017e nyn\u00ed zjevnou p\u0159evahu. Moskva\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/a>, \u017ee obrat n\u00e1kladn\u00ed dopravy v arktick\u00e9 p\u00e1nvi vzrostl v roce 2022 o 4,4 procenta na 98,5 milionu tun. Od agentury Reuters:<\/p>\n

Rusko pos\u00edl\u00e1 v\u00edce ropy vyt\u011b\u017een\u00e9 v arktick\u00e9 oblasti do \u010c\u00edny a Indie, a to s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi slevami pot\u00e9, co Evropa minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc zabouchla dve\u0159e rusk\u00fdm dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m, ukazuj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed zdroje a \u00fadaje.<\/em>Rusko po mnoho let budovalo svou flotilu ledoborc\u016f, lod\u00ed a ponorek. Moskva tak\u00e9 rozvinula t\u011b\u017ebu a ropn\u00e9 vrty pod\u00e9l sv\u00e9ho 15 000 mil dlouh\u00e9ho arktick\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. USA se sna\u017e\u00ed dohnat ztr\u00e1tu t\u00edm, \u017ee vkl\u00e1daj\u00ed pen\u00edze do st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch z\u00e1kladen na Alja\u0161ce a v Gr\u00f3nsku a\u00a0z\u0159izuj\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny<\/a>\u00a0na norsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 aktivita v Arktid\u011b v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech jen poroste, a Moskva ji pova\u017euje za \u201eoblast existen\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdznamu: kde m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159i obran\u011b sv\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f pou\u017e\u00edt v\u0161echny slo\u017eky, v\u010detn\u011b s\u00edly.<\/p>\n

Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st ropy a plynu z rusk\u00e9 Arktidy d\u0159\u00edve sm\u011b\u0159ovala do Evropy. Nyn\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do \u010c\u00edny a Indie. Indie loni dostala\u00a0prvn\u00ed dod\u00e1vku arktick\u00e9ho zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho plynu<\/a>\u00a0a tamn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti se sna\u017e\u00ed investovat do rusk\u00fdch projekt\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jak upozor\u0148uje Andrew Korybko,\u00a0snahy Finska o v\u00fdrobu kriz\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0na hranic\u00edch s Ruskem lze pova\u017eovat za sou\u010d\u00e1st \u00fasil\u00ed Z\u00e1padu o militarizaci arktick\u00e9 konfrontace:<\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee \u201evz\u00e1jemn\u011b zaru\u010den\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed\u201c (MAD) mezi NATO a Ruskem klade velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e9 meze tomu, jak velk\u00fd tlak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt na t\u00e9to nov\u011b objeven\u00e9 front\u011b vyv\u00edjen, ale p\u0159esto by jej\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00ed mohli rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9 bloku pova\u017eovat za lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jej\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00ed v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u201ekde se jedny dve\u0159e zav\u00edraj\u00ed, jin\u00e9 se otev\u00edraj\u00ed\u201c, nebo l\u00e9pe \u0159e\u010deno, konec z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky NATO proti Rusku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Ukrajiny by mohl v\u00e9st k otev\u0159en\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b riskantn\u00ed, ale st\u00e1le destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed fronty ve Finsku.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdsledek by rovn\u011b\u017e poslou\u017eil k dopl\u0148kov\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu \u2013 mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia by jej vyu\u017eila jako \u201eve\u0159ejn\u011b v\u011brohodnou\u201c z\u00e1minku pro urychlen\u00ed militarizace Arktidy. Tato \u201eposledn\u00ed hranice\u201c nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky je p\u0159ipravena st\u00e1t se brzy divadlem soupe\u0159en\u00ed mezi zlatou miliardou Z\u00e1padu vedenou USA a \u010d\u00ednsko-ruskou entitou, a to kv\u016fli rostouc\u00ed roli Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e9 cesty p\u0159i usnad\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodu mezi V\u00fdchodem a Z\u00e1padem. S ohledem na tuto skute\u010dnost se vyzdvi\u017een\u00edm finsk\u00e9 fronty, jak to ji\u017e d\u011bl\u00e1 NATO, \u201ezabij\u00ed dv\u011b mouchy jednou ranou\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed d\u016fsledky po\u0161kozen\u00ed Baltsk\u00e9ho koridoru jsou mal\u00e9.\u00a0Podle Naval News<\/a>\u00a0je finsk\u00e1 plynov\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 st\u00e1le stabiln\u00ed d\u00edky obrovsk\u00e9mu plovouc\u00edmu za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn, kter\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed USA a kter\u00e9 bylo zakotveno v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce, aby nahradilo rusk\u00fd plyn. Prasknut\u00ed Balticconnectoru v\u0161ak znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Finsko nem\u016f\u017ee pos\u00edlat plyn do Estonska, dokud nebude provedena oprava, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee trvat n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed kabely ji\u017e byly opraveny.<\/p>\n

Ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku v\u0161ak poslou\u017e\u00ed jako u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj k dal\u0161\u00ed militarizaci Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a Arktidy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b ne\u017e se vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00ed plynovodu a komunika\u010dn\u00edch kabel\u016f ust\u00e1lilo na nov\u00e9m Ledn\u00edm medv\u011bdovi, pobalt\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 m\u011bli sv\u011bdiv\u00e9 prsty na spou\u0161ti nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 na Rusko. Nap\u0159\u00edklad loty\u0161sk\u00fd prezident Edgars Rink\u0113vi\u010ds\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>, \u017ee pokud se zjist\u00ed, \u017ee se na tom Moskva pod\u00edlela, m\u011blo by b\u00fdt Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e pro Rusko\u00a0uzav\u0159eno<\/a>. Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed bylo sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed s\u00edl\u00edc\u00edho ch\u00f3ru, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem bylo ud\u011blat z Pobalt\u00ed novou frontu proti Rusku.<\/p>\n

Blok\u00e1da Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e?<\/h2>\n

P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nov\u00e9ho ledn\u00edho medv\u011bda by mohl poskytnout dal\u0161\u00ed palivo pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed zast\u00e1nce tvrd\u00e9 linie, kte\u0159\u00ed st\u00e1le prosazuj\u00ed blok\u00e1dn\u00ed gambit. List Financial Times 14. listopadu uvedl, \u017ee EU skute\u010dn\u011b zva\u017euje zastaven\u00ed rusk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch lod\u00ed, aby zkontrolovala jejich doklady v r\u00e1mci zoufal\u00e9ho pokusu prosadit \u0161patn\u011b vymy\u0161len\u00e9 omezen\u00ed cen ropy. Podle tohoto ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ropa, kter\u00e1 se neprod\u00e1v\u00e1 pod limitem 60 dolar\u016f za barel, kryta z\u00e1padn\u00edm poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm pro svou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed cestu.<\/p>\n

No, z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd\u201c rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy\u00a0nebyl<\/a>\u00a0v \u0159\u00edjnu prod\u00e1n pod touto cenovou hranic\u00ed a lod\u011b jednodu\u0161e vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed nez\u00e1padn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci EU s v\u00e1\u017enou tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d mus\u00ed zastavit lod\u011b p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed ruskou ropu, je to, \u017ee nez\u00e1padn\u00ed pojistky nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00faniku ropy \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9. Anonymn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci EU sd\u011blili listu Financial Times, \u017ee tento \u00fakol p\u0159ipadne D\u00e1nsku v \u00fazk\u00e9m D\u00e1nsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu a kontroly budou prov\u00e1d\u011bny podle z\u00e1kon\u016f \u00damluvy OSN o mo\u0159sk\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1t\u016fm umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed \u201ezah\u00e1jit \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b zadr\u017een\u00ed plavidla\u201c, pokud maj\u00ed \u201ejasn\u00e9 objektivn\u00ed d\u016fkazy\u201c, \u017ee plavidlo p\u0159edstavuje hrozbu po\u0161kozen\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou probl\u00e9my s takov\u00fdm pl\u00e1nem? List Financial Times k tomu\u00a0poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u00da\u0159edn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed byli o n\u00e1vrhu informov\u00e1ni, v\u0161ak tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1vis\u00ed na schopnosti d\u00e1nsk\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f zastavovat a kontrolovat tankery, a vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, co by Koda\u0148 d\u011blala, kdyby lo\u010f odm\u00edtla zastavit. \u201eZd\u00e1 se, \u017ee diskuse se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na to, aby zkomplikovala \u017eivot Rusku a odb\u011bratel\u016fm jeho ropy,\u201c \u0159ekl Henning Gloystein z Eurasia Group. \u201ePokud se v\u00e1m poda\u0159\u00ed zna\u010dn\u011b zt\u00ed\u017eit byrokracii a rizika spojen\u00e1 s obchodov\u00e1n\u00edm s ruskou ropou, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee kupuj\u00edc\u00ed za\u010dnou za sv\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee op\u011bt po\u017eadovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed slevy.\u201c<\/em>Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusko by takov\u00e9 snahy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b pova\u017eovalo za v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nezm\u00edn\u011bna. Zhruba 60 % celkov\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy po mo\u0159i proch\u00e1z\u00ed na sv\u00e9 cest\u011b na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed trhy d\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u017einami a aktualizovan\u00e1 verze n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doktr\u00edny Rusk\u00e9 federace, kterou Moskva vydala, uv\u00e1d\u00ed Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e a d\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einy jako \u201ed\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 oblasti\u201c, v nich\u017e\u00a0bude pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly<\/a>\u00a0k dispozici jako posledn\u00ed mo\u017enost po vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed ostatn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Po zpr\u00e1v\u011b FT zalo\u017een\u00e9 na informac\u00edch od nejmenovan\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f EU ji agentura Reuters rozst\u0159\u00edlela s dal\u0161\u00edmi anonymn\u00edmi p\u0159edstaviteli EU, kte\u0159\u00ed uvedli, \u017ee v n\u00e1vrhu Evropsk\u00e9 komise na zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed zaveden\u00ed cenov\u00e9ho limitu na ruskou ropu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd takov\u00fd pl\u00e1n nen\u00ed, a poznamenali n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n

T\u0159i n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed experti uvedli, \u017ee blokov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodn\u00edch plavidel v d\u00e1nsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu by bylo v rozporu se z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi pravidly mo\u0159sk\u00e9ho provozu, v\u010detn\u011b \u00damluvy OSN o mo\u0159sk\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu, kter\u00e1 upravuje n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu.<\/em><\/p>\n

D\u00e1nsko by podle nich m\u011blo pr\u00e1vo zastavit plavidlo pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by p\u0159edstavovalo zjevnou hrozbu.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eD\u00e1nsko nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm nic takov\u00e9ho neud\u011blalo. Blokov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dopravy v d\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u017ein\u00e1ch by se bl\u00ed\u017eilo vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky,\u201c \u0159ekl Hans Peter Michaelsen, nez\u00e1visl\u00fd obrann\u00fd analytik.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee neshody ohledn\u011b hry na inspekci lod\u00ed jsou jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d Evropsk\u00e1 komise\u00a0odlo\u017eila<\/a>\u00a012. bal\u00ed\u010dek sankc\u00ed. Je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee zpr\u00e1va FT byla jen dal\u0161\u00edm z dlouh\u00e9 \u0159ady zku\u0161ebn\u00edch bal\u00f3nk\u016f o mo\u017enosti zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed s\u00e1zky v Pobalt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Estonsko, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed po\u010det obyvatel ne\u017e rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, d\u011bl\u00e1 hluk, \u017ee zp\u016fsob\u00ed probl\u00e9my ve Finsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e estonsk\u00fd ministr obrany Hanno Pevkur ned\u00e1vno hovo\u0159il o tom, jak Helsinky a\u00a0Tallinn<\/a>\u00a0integruj\u00ed svou pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed protiraketovou obranu, co\u017e by podle n\u011bj umo\u017enilo t\u011bmto zem\u00edm v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby uzav\u0159\u00edt Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv pro rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b. Po\u010d\u00e1tkem leto\u0161n\u00edho roku Estonsko rovn\u011b\u017e navrhovalo uzav\u0159en\u00ed Finsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pro Rusko \u2013 fakticky blok\u00e1du Petrohradu.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se z\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy k t\u011bmto my\u0161lenk\u00e1m st\u00e1le vracej\u00ed, zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku o n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho pokus\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ji\u017e nyn\u00ed jsou na dobr\u00e9 cest\u011b k realizaci pl\u00e1nu The Center for Strategic and International Studies pro\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 akce NATO<\/a>\u00a0v Pobalt\u00ed:<\/p>\n