{"id":40449,"date":"2023-11-18T01:17:48","date_gmt":"2023-11-18T00:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=40449"},"modified":"2023-11-17T20:35:35","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T19:35:35","slug":"andrew-korybko-summit-xi-biden-by-mohl-pomoci-lepe-ridit-cinsko-americkou-rivalitu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/11\/18\/andrew-korybko-summit-xi-biden-by-mohl-pomoci-lepe-ridit-cinsko-americkou-rivalitu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Summit Xi-Biden by mohl pomoci l\u00e9pe \u0159\u00eddit \u010d\u00ednsko-americkou rivalitu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bylo by p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 usuzovat, \u017ee jejich p\u0159edchoz\u00ed implikovan\u00e9 rozhovory o \u201enov\u00e9m uvoln\u011bn\u00ed\u201c nebo o s\u00e9rii vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kompromis\u016f nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d mnoha dom\u00e9nami, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je dos\u00e1hnout \u201enov\u00e9ho norm\u00e1lu\u201c v jejich vazb\u00e1ch, jsou zp\u011bt na spr\u00e1vn\u00fdch kolej\u00edch.\u00a0Od \u00fanorov\u00e9ho incidentu s bal\u00f3nem, kter\u00fd vykolejil tuto velkou strategickou trajektorii, se toho stalo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho, ale um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1 s\u00e9rie vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kompromis\u016f je skute\u010dn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho, aby svou rivalitu vy\u0159e\u0161ili, slou\u017eili by jen k tomu, aby ji l\u00e9pe zvl\u00e1dali.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezidenti Si a Biden se poprv\u00e9 po roce setkali ve st\u0159edu na Asijsko-pacifick\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 konferenci (APEC) v San Franciscu.\u00a0K jejich setk\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>do\u0161lo, kdy\u017e se USA\u00a0postupn\u011b\u00a0<\/a>odpoutaly\u00a0<\/a>od\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/a>konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>a uprost\u0159ed\u00a0ne\u010dekan\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi Izraelem a Ham\u00e1sem\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1hle odvr\u00e1tila svou pozornost od v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch euroasijsk\u00fdch front.\u00a0Tento kontext vedl k souvisej\u00edc\u00edm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m o budoucnosti jej\u00ed velk\u00e9 strategie, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b o tom, zda by se m\u011bla \u201e\u00a0oto\u010dit (zp\u011bt) do Asie\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, jak bylo pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no, nebo zv\u00e1\u017eit n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby byly vy\u010derp\u00e1ny kv\u016fli v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016fm ozbrojen\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b, ale nyn\u00ed jsou nata\u017eeny k bodu zlomu v d\u016fsledku jej\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f v\u016f\u010di Izraeli.\u00a0USA si proto nemohou dovolit nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed do jak\u00fdchkoli v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch konflikt\u016f v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, a p\u0159esto je to p\u0159esn\u011b to, co proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b provokuj\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na podporou\u00a0filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/a>n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch n\u00e1rok\u016f a\u00a0tchajwansk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/a>separatismu\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0V\u0161echno by se mohlo rychle vymknout kontrole, pokud se tato politika brzy nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 moudrost souhlasu s\u00a0obnoven\u00edm vojensk\u00e9 komunikace\u00a0<\/a>s \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1sleduje po\u00a0potvrzen\u00ed odvol\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>b\u00fdval\u00e9ho ministra obrany Li Shangfua t\u00fddny p\u0159ed jeho dlouh\u00fdm zmizen\u00edm.\u00a0Bez ohledu na to, co mohlo b\u00fdt za t\u00edmto druh\u00fdm krokem, jeho v\u00fdznam pro Summit Xi-Biden spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee umo\u017enil v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 komunikace.\u00a0To zase pom\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee jejich\u00a0nov\u00e1 studen\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1\u00a0<\/a>rivalita povede k velk\u00e9mu konfliktu nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm odhadem.<\/p>\n

Bylo by p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 usuzovat, \u017ee jejich p\u0159edchoz\u00ed implikovan\u00e9 rozhovory o \u201e\u00a0nov\u00e9m uvoln\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c nebo o s\u00e9rii vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kompromis\u016f nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d mnoha dom\u00e9nami, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je dos\u00e1hnout \u201enov\u00e9ho norm\u00e1lu\u201c v jejich vazb\u00e1ch, jsou zp\u011bt na spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 cest\u011b.\u00a0Od \u00fanorov\u00e9ho incidentu s bal\u00f3nem, kter\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>vykolejil tuto velkou strategickou trajektorii,\u00a0se toho stalo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho , ale um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1 s\u00e9rie vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kompromis\u016f je skute\u010dn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho, aby svou rivalitu vy\u0159e\u0161ili, slou\u017eili by jen k tomu, aby ji l\u00e9pe zvl\u00e1dali.<\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdsledek by byl \u010dist\u00fdm pozitivem pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu, ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje ur\u010dit\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy pro dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00ed z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 transformaci\u00a0<\/a>, zejm\u00e9na Indii a Rusko.\u00a0Ti dva to nikdy ne\u0159eknou p\u0159\u00edmo, ale ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed se n\u00e1vratu a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9ho omezen\u00ed\u00a0kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho bi-multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho obdob\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, kdy \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e1 souhra ne\u00fam\u011brn\u011b formovala sv\u011bt.\u00a0K tomu do\u0161lo zhruba od konce roku 2010 do zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace a nebylo to ide\u00e1ln\u00ed ani pro jedno ani druh\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Aby bylo jasno, USA z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch partner\u016f Indie\u00a0<\/a>kdekoli na sv\u011bt\u011b, zat\u00edmco Rusko je v\u00a0neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>dohod\u011b\u00a0<\/a>s \u010c\u00ednou, ale ka\u017ed\u00fd z jejich prot\u011bj\u0161k\u016f pova\u017euje \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jejich soupe\u0159en\u00ed z nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky za d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jejich vazby s \u010c\u00ednou. Indie, respektive Rusko.\u00a0V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee po\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m pro Indii a Rusko, a\u0165 u\u017e ne\u00famysln\u011b nebo z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b.<\/p>\n

USA by nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0mohly p\u0159imhou\u0159it o\u010di\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159ed n\u011bkter\u00fdmi \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi tahy v Himal\u00e1j\u00edch \u2013 Ladakhu, Bh\u00fat\u00e1nu anebo Arun\u00e1\u010dalprad\u00e9\u0161i \u2013 kter\u00e9 Indie pova\u017euje za hrozbu pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, pokud dojdou k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee by to p\u0159esm\u011brovalo jejich zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed od n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch spor\u016f, a tedy odvr\u00e1tit mo\u017enou \u010d\u00ednsko-americkou v\u00e1lku. Podobn\u011b by \u010c\u00edna mohla povzbudit v\u00edce sv\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, aby se pod\u0159\u00eddily americk\u00fdm protirusk\u00fdm sankc\u00edm, pokud dojde k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee by to mohlo pomoci urychlit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9 rozhovory zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed jejich obchodn\u00ed\u00a0v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Oba sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e by se mohly rozvinout ne\u00famysln\u011b kv\u016fli tomu, jak politici vn\u00edmaj\u00ed objektivn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy sv\u00e9 zem\u011b, nebo z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b, pokud jejich prot\u011bj\u0161ky diskr\u00e9tn\u011b po\u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed o takovou protihodnotu.\u00a0\u00da\u010delem tohoto zd\u016frazn\u011bn\u00ed nen\u00ed vyvolat strach z budoucnosti indicko-americk\u00fdch nebo \u010d\u00ednsko-rusk\u00fdch vazeb, ale jednodu\u0161e upozornit na nov\u011b nalezen\u00fd impuls pro dal\u0161\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed indicko-rusk\u00fdch vazeb.\u00a0To je v souladu se snahou experta z Valdai Club Andrey Sushentsova vymyslet nov\u00fd \u201e\u00a0velk\u00fd n\u00e1pad\u00a0<\/a>\u201c pro jejich vazby.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edchoz\u00ed hyperlinkov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza navrhuje, \u017ee koncept tri-multipolarity, kter\u00fd je v n\u00ed podrobn\u011b pops\u00e1n a byl ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve hyperlinkov\u00e1n v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku s ohledem na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9movou transformaci, by mohl uspokojit tuto velkou strategickou pot\u0159ebu.\u00a0R\u00e1muje v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159echod zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdznam souhry t\u011bchto \u010dty\u0159 velmoc\u00ed pro utv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed budouc\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du.\u00a0Vzhledem k po\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edmu t\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed v jejich zem\u00edch je tento posledn\u00ed Summit Xi-Biden d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve.<\/p>\n

Jak ji\u017e bylo naps\u00e1no d\u0159\u00edve, v\u00fdsledek jejich setk\u00e1n\u00ed je \u010dist\u00fdm pozitivem pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu, i kdy\u017e s sebou nese tak\u00e9 nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy pro Indii a Rusko, nemluv\u011b o men\u0161\u00edch a st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech s men\u0161\u00ed suverenitou ne\u017e\u00a0tyto\u00a0<\/a>dva.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna a USA maj\u00ed pr\u00e1vo prosazovat sv\u00e9 objektivn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy tak, jak je ch\u00e1pou tv\u016frci politik, stejn\u011b jako Indie, Rusko a v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed.\u00a0V ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude dosa\u017eeno pragmatick\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy t\u011bchto z\u00e1jm\u016f, i kdy\u017e to nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejmost.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Bylo by p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 usuzovat, \u017ee jejich p\u0159edchoz\u00ed implikovan\u00e9 rozhovory o \u201enov\u00e9m uvoln\u011bn\u00ed\u201c nebo o s\u00e9rii…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,1060,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40449"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40449"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40449\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40451,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40449\/revisions\/40451"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}