{"id":39847,"date":"2023-11-08T01:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-08T00:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=39847"},"modified":"2023-11-07T17:54:01","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T16:54:01","slug":"olivier-chambrin-prehled-euroasijske-geostrategicke-situace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/11\/08\/olivier-chambrin-prehled-euroasijske-geostrategicke-situace\/","title":{"rendered":"Olivier Chambrin: P\u0159ehled euroasijsk\u00e9 geostrategick\u00e9 situace"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span>Tento dokument je pokusem o interpretaci ud\u00e1lost\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se Ruska s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k dostupn\u00fdm informac\u00edm.\u00a0Nen\u00ed to ani proroctv\u00ed, ani imperativn\u00ed v\u00fdklad samozvan\u00fdch pravd.\u00a0Jak v\u0161ak shrnuje vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed str\u00e1nka zebrastationpolaire.over-blog.com, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 b\u00fdt otev\u0159en\u00fd anal\u00fdz\u00e1m \u201e\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><em><span>p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00edm alternativn\u00ed \u00fahel pohledu, v opozici k takzvan\u00fdm syndikovan\u00fdm \u201eanal\u00fdz\u00e1m\u201c \u201esvobodn\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed\u201c &#8222;z\u00e1padn\u00ed demokracie<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0&#8222;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pro francouzsk\u00e9 (a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pro n\u011b samotn\u00e9) cesta prezidenta Macrona do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie klade ot\u00e1zku: Je to pokus z\u00edskat zp\u011bt ztracen\u00fd vliv v Africe a Libanonu [1], ut\u011b\u0161it ego, zran\u011bn\u00e9 Jupiterem odsouzen\u00fdm k pomluv\u00e1m\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref1\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn1\"><span>ve<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0vlastn\u00ed zemi?\u00a0Nebo vedle jeho zmizen\u00ed z kremelsk\u00fdch obrazovek vlo\u017een\u00ed do Velk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 hry zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch front proti Rusku?<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Vyu\u017eit\u00ed perifern\u00edch strategi\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Stejn\u011b jako N\u011bmecko, a mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce, i T\u0159et\u00ed \u0158\u00edm, euroasijsk\u00fd most mezi V\u00fdchodem a Z\u00e1padem, zn\u00e1 strach z druh\u00e9 fronty.\u00a0Severoameri\u010dt\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 ze sv\u00e9 strany integrovali a udr\u017eovali geopolitickou vizi kruh\u016f definovan\u00fdch Mc Kinderem a Spykmanem\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref2\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn2\"><span>[2]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0I p\u0159es vst\u0159ikov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f jako jsou st\u00edha\u010dky F16, star\u00e9 Leopardy 1 a hlavn\u011b rakety (ATACMS, SCALP\/\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Storm Shadow<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Neptune<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0, M39A1 modernizovan\u00e9 na HIMARS,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>TAURUS<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<span>(?) domorod\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Trembita ,\u00a0<\/span><\/em><em><span>Totchka<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0, S 200 a\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Grom<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0p\u0159estav\u011bn\u00e9&#8230; ) kter\u00e9 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed obt\u011b\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed r\u00e1dius Kyjeva na v\u00edce ne\u017e 200, dokonce 300 km pod liniemi (tedy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd Krym), v kombinaci s nucen\u00fdm narukov\u00e1n\u00edm st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti obyvatelstva se nezd\u00e1, \u017ee by fronta byla p\u0159edur\u010dena k rychl\u00e9mu Zm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Rusk\u00e1 federace ve skute\u010dnosti vede v\u00e1lku \u201eo ekonomice\u201c\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref3\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn3\"><span>[3]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, co\u017e j\u00ed umo\u017e\u0148uje testovat jej\u00ed vybaven\u00ed (hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Kindjal, Onyx,<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0vrtuln\u00edky\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Alligator<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0Ka 50\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref4\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn4\"><span>[4]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, klouzav\u00e9 bomby s nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdm FAB, Mig 31\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref5\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn5\"><span>[ 5 ]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, protidru\u017eicov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, gener\u00e1tor elektromagnetick\u00fdch impuls\u016f bez jadern\u00e9ho v\u00fdbuchu\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Alabuga\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref6\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn6\"><strong><span>[6]<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><span>\u00a0, mno\u017estv\u00ed modernizovan\u00fdch dron\u016f, letouny AWACS A-50\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref7\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn7\"><span>[7]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, houfnice Koalitsya a\u2026) a rozv\u00edjet sv\u00e9 doktr\u00edny a z\u00e1rove\u0148 znovu spou\u0161t\u011bt sv\u016fj komplexn\u00ed vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref8\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn8\"><span>[8]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a t\u00edm, \u017ee \u0161et\u0159\u00ed sv\u016fj person\u00e1l, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b s ohledem na p\u0159\u00edpravu (p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm mo\u017enost p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat) p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci s NATO\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref9\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn9\"><span>[9]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0USA se zase sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet prost\u0159edky nab\u00edzej\u00edc\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9 kritick\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed, aby se postavily \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice.\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref10\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn10\"><span>[10]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Je tedy jasn\u011b patrn\u00e9, \u017ee strategie USA\/NATO spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve snaze zmrazit ukrajinskou frontu\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref11\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn11\"><span>[11]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zv\u00fd\u0161it po\u010det iniciativ na obch\u00e1zen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref12\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn12\"><span>[12]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Severn\u00ed fronta<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>(Pozn\u00e1mka: pojem \u201ep\u0159edn\u00ed\u201c je zde koncep\u010dn\u00ed a neodr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b geografii)<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>Finsko a \u0160v\u00e9dsko\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref13\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn13\"><span>[13]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0sv\u00fdm<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0vstupem do NATO zablokovaly severn\u00ed frontu.\u00a0Tyto dva n\u00e1rody disponuj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi technick\u00fdmi a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi schopnostmi, pokud jde o v\u00fdzbroj\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref14\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn14\"><span>[14]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a arm\u00e1dy, kter\u00e9 jsou mal\u00e9, ale dob\u0159e vybaven\u00e9 a vycvi\u010den\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref15\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn15\"><span>[15]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0T\u011bmto sil\u00e1m v\u0161ak vyhovuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm obrann\u00fd postoj a ve skute\u010dnosti pro Rusko nep\u0159edstavuj\u00ed hrozbu.\u00a0Integrace do NATO jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed zm\u011bn\u00ed situaci spolupr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 existuje po desetilet\u00ed a kter\u00e1 se ve Skandin\u00e1vii od roku 2017 zv\u00fd\u0161ila\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref16\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn16\"><span>[16]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Skute\u010dn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my jsou 1) v tom, \u017ee se Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e st\u00e1v\u00e1 jezerem NATO, co\u017e bude m\u00edt d\u016fsledky p\u0159i budouc\u00edm \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed arktick\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras po oteplen\u00ed, a \u017ee 2) z\u00e1kladny USA budou instalov\u00e1ny na hranici Ruska, a\u010dkoli teoreticky jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b by tam nem\u011bly b\u00fdt rozm\u00edst\u011bny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0(Loty\u0161sko a Estonsko, v\u00edce ne\u017e Litva) vstoupily do aktivn\u00ed rusofobie, co\u017e m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd tlak na ob\u010dany rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edho p\u016fvodu (z\u00e1kaz rusk\u00e9ho jazyka, potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v, potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edch a zdravotn\u00edch v\u00fdhod, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b star\u0161\u00ed populace, kulturn\u00ed z\u00e1kazy, konfiskace atd.).\u00a0Situace p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 situaci francouzsk\u00fdch Pieds-noirs b\u011bhem nez\u00e1vislosti Al\u017e\u00edrska.\u00a0Speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace v\u0161ak byla spu\u0161t\u011bna jak proto, \u017ee NATO hrozilo odtr\u017een\u00edm Ukrajiny od slovansk\u00e9ho sv\u011bta, tak kv\u016fli pom\u011brn\u011b srovnateln\u00fdm akc\u00edm, kter\u00e9 Kyjev od roku 2014 provedl proti rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edmu lidu Donbasu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Polsko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo svou zdr\u017eenlivost ohledn\u011b v\u00fdvozu ukrajinsk\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee jeho pozici ospravedl\u0148uje sp\u00ed\u0161e nen\u00e1vist k Rusku ne\u017e l\u00e1ska k banderistick\u00fdm Ukrajinc\u016fm u moci v Kyjev\u011b, o nich\u017e nen\u00ed pochyb. historicky za\u010dal existovat prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm protipolsk\u00e9ho terorismu.\u00a0Projekt Pilsudskij\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Mi\u0119dzymorze<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0(neboli intermarum), kter\u00fd je zalo\u017een na nostalgii po polsko-litevsk\u00e9 hegemonii a kter\u00fd se v roce 2016 za\u010dal realizovat se Spole\u010denstv\u00edm t\u0159\u00ed mo\u0159\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b naraz\u00ed na \u00fazemn\u00ed pokrok Ruska, v\u010detn\u011b Od\u011bsy.\u00a0N\u00e1vrat z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajiny kolem Lvova do polsk\u00e9ho vr\u00e1sn\u011bn\u00ed v t\u00e9 \u010di on\u00e9 podob\u011b\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref17\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn17\"><span>[17]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed interpozi\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly, referendum, bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohoda opakuj\u00edc\u00ed a roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed dohodu z roku 2014 atd.) je mo\u017enou hypot\u00e9zou.\u00a0Var\u0161ava pokra\u010duje v masov\u00e9m z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 techniky (americk\u00e9 a korejsk\u00e9 tanky, americk\u00e1 letadla, korejsk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo atd. hrazen\u00e9 z prost\u0159edk\u016f EU) s ambic\u00ed srovnat prvn\u00ed evropskou arm\u00e1du a vytla\u010dit Berl\u00edn do role prvn\u00ed vazal USA na z\u00e1pad\u011b kontinentu\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref18\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn18\"><span>[18]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, zda zem\u011b se 40 miliony obyvatel s pr\u016fm\u011brnou ekonomikou infuz\u00ed EU bude schopna dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eet takovou vojenskou s\u00edlu.\u00a0Z\u00edskan\u00fd pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd a technologick\u00fd potenci\u00e1l nebude v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v kontextu v\u00e1lky s vysokou intenzitou konkurovat moskevsk\u00e9mu.\u00a0A\u0165 u\u017e v\u0161ak polsk\u00e9 parlamentn\u00ed volby dopadnou jakkoli, je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9, \u017ee se pozice zem\u011b v\u016f\u010di Moskv\u011b nijak drasticky nezm\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref19\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn19\"><span>[19]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0P\u0159edm\u011bt znepokojen\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 Kaliningradu;\u00a0Byly tam rozm\u00edst\u011bny rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 zbran\u011b.\u00a0Situace rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy a postoje jej\u00edch pobaltsk\u00fdch a polsk\u00fdch soused\u016f vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed riziko posunu, mo\u017en\u00e1 nukle\u00e1rn\u00edho, proto\u017ee doktr\u00edna, kterou p\u0159ipomn\u011bl prezident Putin, kter\u00fd 5. \u0159\u00edjna objasnil, \u017ee nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed prahu aplikace, stanov\u00ed, \u017ee tyto zbran\u011b mohou a mus\u00ed b\u00fdt pou\u017eity pouze k obran\u011b \u00fazem\u00ed nebo existence rusk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref20\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn20\"><span>[20]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>B\u011blorusko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 se b\u011bhem Wagnerovy krize uk\u00e1zalo jako siln\u00fd spojenec, pokra\u010duje v roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s Moskvou;\u00a01. listopadu p\u0159ipravilo\u00a0<\/span><sup><span>setk\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/sup><span>\u00a0Putin\/Luka\u010denko dal\u0161\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed Rady pro kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Organizace Smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a potvrdilo strategick\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed mezi ob\u011bma st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed fronta<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>N\u011bmecko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 poci\u0165ovat dopady zhor\u0161en\u00ed ekonomiky spojen\u00e9 s n\u00e1klady na energie a (paradoxn\u011b) sankcemi.\u00a0Pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se hegemonovi USA v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref21\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn21\"><span>[21]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, o \u010dem\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed (ne)veden\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed Nord Streamu 1 a zhor\u0161en\u00ed stavu Nord Streamu 2, jeho\u017e bylo N\u011bmecko p\u0159esto spolufinancovatelem. ob\u011b\u0165.\u00a0N\u011bmeck\u00e1 pod\u0159\u00edzenost, kter\u00e1 j\u00ed zajistila ekonomick\u00e9 a posl\u00e9ze politick\u00e9 prvenstv\u00ed v r\u00e1mci EU na \u00fakor Francie, se ji\u017e nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt pln\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1.\u00a0NSR, d\u0159\u00edve t\u011b\u017e\u00edc\u00ed z privilegovan\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu a bez koloni\u00e1ln\u00edho d\u011bdictv\u00ed \u2013 nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u2013 dok\u00e1zala p\u0159ekonat teroristickou a protestn\u00ed vlnu 70. let, pot\u00e9 i n\u00e1klady na znovusjednocen\u00ed (d\u00edky p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9mu p\u0159eorientov\u00e1n\u00ed Evropy);\u00a0zem\u011b se nyn\u00ed jev\u00ed stejn\u011b neschopn\u00e1 jako Francie, Belgie a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, pokud jde o zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed ciz\u00ed populace a rostouc\u00ed nepokoje ve spole\u010densk\u00e9m \u0159\u00e1du.\u00a0Proklamovan\u00e1 touha vr\u00e1tit lesk sp\u00edc\u00edmu\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Bundeswehru<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0masivn\u00edm n\u00e1kupem modern\u00ed techniky naraz\u00ed na n\u011bmeckou demografickou situaci, kter\u00e1 by zemi odsoudila k vyzbrojen\u00ed sv\u00fdch jednotek tureck\u00fdm person\u00e1lem, pokud by po\u010dty byly skute\u010dn\u011b nafouknut\u00e9.\u00a0V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, navzdory projevu Pro NATO a omezen\u00fdm dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m prost\u0159edk\u016f do Kyjeva, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 politika odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed tato v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed a svou aporetickou situaci: Berl\u00edn se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt neschopn\u00fd od\u0159\u00edznout se od Washingtonu, kter\u00fd mu zaji\u0161\u0165uje vojenskou bezpe\u010dnost od roku 1945 [22] , ale je si v\u011bdom\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref22\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn22\"><span>toho<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, \u017ee konflikt vy\u00fastil ve zma\u0159en\u00ed jak\u00e9koli vyhl\u00eddky na plodnou ekonomickou spolupr\u00e1ci s Moskvou, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e toto odd\u011blen\u00ed pokra\u010duje se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm hodnocen\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu t\u011b\u017ece zasa\u017een\u00fdm americk\u00fdm dikt\u00e1tem, kter\u00fd sni\u017euje odbyti\u0161t\u011b a zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady.\u00a0Vzhledem k nedostatku zdroj\u016f se zd\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se n\u011bmeck\u00e1 politika v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m nebo st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu z\u00e1sadn\u011b vyv\u00edjela, zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na \u201ep\u0159evzet\u00ed vl\u00e1dy\u201c na Ukrajin\u011b v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sta\u017een\u00ed USA.\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref23\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn23\"><span>[23]<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>Francie\u00a0dos\u00e1hla konce sv\u00e9 materi\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacity\u00a0<a id=\"_ftnref24\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn24\">[24]<\/a>\u00a0, co\u017e ministr ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Lecornu zofici\u00e1lnil potvrzen\u00edm zastaven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek do Kyjeva, ty by \u201em\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u00fdjimkou a ne pravidlem\u201c\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span>To pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vysv\u011btluje Macronovu diplomatickou politiku ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, jako zprost\u0159edkovatele vlivu na akce USA v t\u00e9to oblasti, pokusem vyu\u017e\u00edt toho, co zb\u00fdv\u00e1 z mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho vlivu Francie.\u00a0Francouzsk\u00fd prezident, viditeln\u011b zdiskreditovan\u00fd v o\u010d\u00edch sv\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho prot\u011bj\u0161ku, ji\u017e nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd majetek k existenci, zapleten\u00fd v africk\u00e9m debaklu, ob\u011b\u0165 (a autor) destrukce francouzsk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 politiky, v \u010dele zem\u011b v procesu zb\u00edda\u010den\u00ed a vystaven\u00ed velk\u00fdm a opakovan\u00fdm soci\u00e1ln\u00edm, etnon\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdm, migra\u010dn\u00edm a politick\u00fdm kriz\u00edm\u00a0<a id=\"_ftnref25\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn25\">[25]<\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0V t\u00e9to souvislosti je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 vid\u011bt, jak by Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e do ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu rozhodn\u011b nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b zas\u00e1hla.\u00a0Na druhou stranu se Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e sna\u017e\u00ed nab\u00eddnout \u201et\u0159et\u00ed cestu\u201c zem\u00edm St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, mimo rusk\u00e9 a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vlivy.\u00a0Berl\u00edn d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e;\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee Turecko je v tomto z\u00e1vod\u011b um\u00edst\u011bno l\u00e9pe.\u00a0Americkou strategi\u00ed nav\u00edc nen\u00ed oblast pacifikovat a regulovat, ale naopak v n\u00ed znovu rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1vat nepokoje v r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9 strategie nap\u011bt\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm (op\u011bt) islamismu.\u00a0Francie se v tomto ohledu jev\u00ed jako zraniteln\u00e1 a riskuje, \u017ee utrp\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u201espojenc\u016f\u201c v ekonomick\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech.\u00a0<a id=\"_ftnref26\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn26\">[26]<\/a><\/span><a id=\"_ftnref24\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn24\"><\/a><a id=\"_ftnref25\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn25\"><\/a><a id=\"_ftnref26\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn26\"><\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>Velk\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>Brit\u00e1nie<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, navzdory odchodu B. Johnsona, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1l\u00fdm a zaho\u0159kl\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem Ruska.\u00a0Britsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby podporuj\u00ed kyjevsk\u00e9 teroristick\u00e9 akce, jako jsou c\u00edlen\u00e9 atent\u00e1ty (viz pokus proti Olegu Carevovi, podle Kyjeva \u201elegitimn\u00edmu\u201c c\u00edli; intoxikace, kterou Ramzan Kadyrov trp\u011bl, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u011b nevysv\u011btlen\u00e1) nebo masov\u00e9 [27] , vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed dron\u016f\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref27\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn27\"><span>za<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0hranice linek\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref28\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn28\"><span>[28]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, subverze na \u00fazem\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref29\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn29\"><span>[29]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b v okoln\u00edch st\u00e1tech (p\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee SAS\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref30\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn30\"><span>[30]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0byla nasazena v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu k v\u00fdcviku mud\u017eahed\u00edn\u016f, pot\u00e9 v \u010ce\u010densku a dokonce i s Bos\u0148\u00e1ky a UCK. Anonymn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd zdroj v\u0161ak Telegraphu \u0159ekl,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>\u017ee<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii doch\u00e1zej\u00ed zbran\u011b pro z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny 4. \u0159\u00edjna 2023.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Ji\u017en\u00ed Evropa zaujala opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj, kter\u00fd se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee si zachov\u00e1, proto\u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee postaven\u00ed Kyjeva se zhor\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>K Ma\u010farsku<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0se nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipojuje\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>Slovensko\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref31\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn31\"><span>[31]<\/span><\/a><\/strong><span>\u00a0mezi st\u00e1ty EU nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 k anga\u017em\u00e1 pro Kyjev a proti Rusku, ale spole\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Bruselu a Washingtonu se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na Balk\u00e1n.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Ji\u017en\u00ed fronta<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>Turecko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0je st\u00e1le str\u00e1\u017ecem \u201eji\u017en\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla NATO\u201c.\u00a0Ankara \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b provedla rovnov\u00e1hu, aby si udr\u017eela nebo dokonce zv\u00fd\u0161ila region\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><em><span>veden\u00ed<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0, ani\u017e by se zcela roze\u0161la s ostatn\u00edmi hlavn\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di.\u00a0Prezident Erdogan byl znovu zvolen, navzdory zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zas\u00e1hlo Turecko, neobnoven\u00ed dohody o obilovin\u00e1ch a zachov\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby G\u00fclena, uprchl\u00edka v USA [32], kter\u00fd z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 mapou\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref32\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn32\"><span>a<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0prost\u0159edkem tlak od toho druh\u00e9ho.\u00a0Bez definitivn\u00edho sporu s Moskvou se Erdoganovi poda\u0159ilo zatla\u010dit \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n proti Arm\u00e9nii p\u0159i jeho znovudobyt\u00ed (ve skute\u010dnosti v souladu s mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm pr\u00e1vem) Horn\u00edho Karabachu v roce 2023, po por\u00e1\u017ece Jerevanu v roce 2020. Nav\u00edc nen\u00ed zn\u00e1m tureck\u00fd vliv v Africe ale skute\u010dn\u00fd.\u00a0Krom\u011b sv\u00e9 podpory pro libyjsk\u00e9 Misratis\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref33\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn33\"><span>[33]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0je \u010cern\u00e1 Afrika pro Ankaru d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem.\u00a0Vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed Francie z kontinentu (krom\u011b \u010cadu, ale na jak dlouho je\u0161t\u011b?), reorganizace ChVK Wagner\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref34\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn34\"><span>[34]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, diplomatick\u00e1 role sv\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 gener\u00e1lu Surovikinovi, to jsou \u00fadaje, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed vz\u00edt tureck\u00fd re\u017eim v \u00favahu, s v\u011bdom\u00edm v zejm\u00e9na, \u017ee G\u00fclenovy s\u00edt\u011b hr\u00e1ly p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed roli v subsaharsk\u00e9m tureck\u00e9m vlivu.\u00a0Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee nov\u00fd po\u017e\u00e1r na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed karty mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, Egyptem a Muslimsk\u00fdmi bratry Turecka\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref35\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn35\"><span>[35]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a Katarem, sponzory Hamasu.\u00a0Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee Rusko intervenovalo ve dvou ze t\u0159\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00fdch zem\u00ed Bratrstva (S\u00fdrie, Libye a Tunisko) od jejich repres\u00ed v Egypt\u011b v roce 2013.\u00a0Krom\u011b sv\u00e9ho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed migra\u010dn\u00edm proudem s EU m\u00e1 Turecko prosp\u011bch ze zalo\u017een\u00ed Brat\u0159\u00ed v Evrop\u011b;\u00a0krom\u011b toho jej\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 pozice v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i umo\u017enila Anka\u0159e zpen\u011b\u017eit svou podporu vstupu Finska a \u0160v\u00e9dska do NATO a prosadit se v Kyjev\u011b i v Moskv\u011b;\u00a0v\u0161echny tyto kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy by nem\u011bly zakr\u00fdvat skute\u010dnost, \u017ee jeho panturkismus a jeho n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd radikalismus (v rivalit\u011b s wahabisty a dynastick\u00fdmi isl\u00e1msk\u00fdmi frakcemi, v protikladu k politick\u00e9 filozofii brat\u0159\u00ed) vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu kolizn\u00ed kurz, s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii a na Kavkaze\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref36\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn36\"><span>[36]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0V bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti by se osmansk\u00e1 pozice nem\u011bla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u011bnit, pokud Rusko zcela neobnov\u00ed severn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a\u017e po Od\u011bsu, co\u017e je mo\u017en\u00e9 a dokonce pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Vl\u00e1da\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>Moldavska<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, mal\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, ale soused\u00edc\u00edho s Ukrajinou, z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b hraje protiruskou kartou, sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed ke \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU, navzdory nejist\u00e9mu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed v tomto ohledu, a ekonomice napojen\u00e9 na Rusko.\u00a0Hovo\u0159\u00edme o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edsta pro udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed stavu z\u00e1padn\u00edho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu dod\u00e1van\u00e9ho na Ukrajinu (zejm\u00e9na n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho, srovnateln\u00e9 m\u00edsto v Polsku zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed sledov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9 techniky), stejn\u011b jako o vojensk\u00e9m nasazen\u00ed NATO [ 37\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref37\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn37\"><span>]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Tento posledn\u00ed bod, kter\u00fd \u010del\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, by vytvo\u0159il dal\u0161\u00ed faktor velk\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Bulharsko a Rumunsko<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0se ze v\u0161ech sil sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout konfliktu, zejm\u00e9na v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0Bulharsk\u00fd ministr obrany v\u0161ak koncem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee chce povolit z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1kladny NATO v Bulharsku za 55 milion\u016f USD hrazen\u00fdch NATO (co\u017e by zdvojn\u00e1sobilo z\u00e1kladnu USA v Camp Bondsteel v Kosovu\u00a0<\/span><em><span>)<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0a Evropsk\u00e1 unie ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee t\u0159icet miliard eur bude v\u011bnov\u00e1no na p\u0159istoupen\u00ed nebo pos\u00edlen\u00ed vazeb s balk\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.\u00a0Navzdory ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 spojeno se slovansk\u00fdm bratrstvem, zejm\u00e9na v Sofii (v t\u00e9 dob\u011b p\u0159ezd\u00edvan\u00e9 \u201e\u0161estn\u00e1ct\u00e1 republika SSSR\u201c), evropsk\u00e9 dotace a velmi \u201ebalk\u00e1nsk\u00e1\u201c forma demokracie nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee uzam\u010den\u00ed na jihu pomine. tento region.\u00a0P\u0159ita\u017elivost EU by se mohla t\u00fdkat i Srbska\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>,<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0kter\u00e9 je pod siln\u00fdm tlakem Washingtonem na d\u00e1lku vedeno p\u0159es Kosova\u0159e a navzdory v\u016fli v\u011bt\u0161iny obyvatel, kte\u0159\u00ed nezapomn\u011bli na zlo\u010diny NATO [\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref38\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn38\"><span>38]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0v roce 1999. Pom\u011brn\u011b rozporupln\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Prezident Vu\u010di\u010d, kter\u00fd se stal jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a tvrd\u0161\u00edm koncem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref39\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn39\"><span>[39]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o t\u00e9to nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 situaci.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed fronta<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>B\u00fdval\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 republiky st\u0159edn\u00ed (a perifern\u00ed) Asie jsou p\u0159edm\u011btem mnoha pokus\u016f o vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0USA se tam sna\u017e\u00ed prosadit, aby kompenzovaly sv\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed z Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu a destabilizovaly region a o\u017eivily ohniska krize na pozad\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Rusku nebo dokonce \u010c\u00edn\u011b [40\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref40\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn40\"><span>]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Tento p\u0159\u00edstup je p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161en vazalsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.\u00a0V letech 1996 a 1999 podpora \u010de\u010densk\u00fdch separatist\u016f s c\u00edlem destabilizovat ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 SNS vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 Moskvou a naru\u0161it projekty p\u0159epravy uhlovod\u00edk\u016f zmobilizovala monarchie v Z\u00e1livu a britsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, jim\u017e pom\u00e1hali (ji\u017e) pobalt\u0161t\u00ed \u017eold\u00e1ci.\u00a0V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a Britov\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed znovu rozdm\u00fdchat uhl\u00edky\u00a0<\/span><em><span>d\u017eih\u00e1du<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0a znovu aktivovat rozbroje, aby oslabili rusk\u00fd feder\u00e1ln\u00ed a multietnick\u00fd st\u00e1t\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref41\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn41\"><span>[41]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Prvn\u00edm krokem je diplomaticky, politicky a ekonomicky distancovat st\u00e1ty v p\u00e1su \u201ebl\u00edzk\u00e9ho zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u201c od Moskvy.\u00a0Pak, zadruh\u00e9, pokusit se podpo\u0159it iredentismus nebo odst\u0159ediv\u00fd kryptonacionalismus v r\u00e1mci samotn\u00e9 Federace.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>V Gruzii<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba oznamuje riziko pokusu o p\u0159evrat pot\u00e9, co z\u00edskali status kandid\u00e1ta na vstup do EU ze strany p\u0159\u00edbuzn\u00fdch b\u00fdval\u00e9ho prezidenta Saaka\u0161viliho a v\u016fdce Gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 legie na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Arm\u00e9nie<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0byla p\u0159edm\u011btem ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy Nancy Pelosiov\u00e9, p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f USA, v roce 2022. Od t\u00e9 doby se premi\u00e9r Pa\u0161injan, kter\u00fd je siln\u011b zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1n pro sv\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed konfliktu s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, pokou\u0161\u00ed dostat bl\u00ed\u017ee k Washingtonu, EU (prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed z 21. \u0159\u00edjna) a Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e (kv\u016fli velk\u00e9 arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 diaspo\u0159e ve Francii\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref42\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn42\"><span>[42]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0);\u00a0tyto kroky doprov\u00e1z\u00ed protirusk\u00fd projev\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref43\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn43\"><span>[43]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed odchod rusk\u00fdch interpozi\u010dn\u00edch sil\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref44\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn44\"><span>[44]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a kritizuj\u00edc\u00ed Moskvu za ztr\u00e1tu provincie Horn\u00ed Karabach (p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee tato provincie, z\u00edskan\u00e1 n\u00e1sil\u00edm,\u00a0<\/span><em><span>de iure<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0pat\u0159ila \u00c1zerbajd\u017e\u00e1n).\u00a0\u201eSou\u010dasn\u011b\u201c arm\u00e9nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zve\u0159ejnila pr\u00e1vn\u00ed n\u00e1vrh, kter\u00fd umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjezd prezidenta Putina bez uplatn\u011bn\u00ed mand\u00e1tu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho trestn\u00edho soudu, kter\u00fd 14. \u0159\u00edjna ratifikoval prezident Cha\u010daturjan.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jerevansk\u00fd re\u017eim, ji\u017e vnit\u0159n\u011b zpochybn\u011bn\u00fd, se sna\u017e\u00ed hr\u00e1t na houpa\u010dce, aby se udr\u017eel.\u00a0Ztr\u00e1ta Karabachu odzbrojila m\u00edstn\u00ed milice, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017eovaly jeho moc, ale vys\u00eddlen\u00ed 70 000 obyvatel, vyhnan\u00fdch \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi n\u00e1sil\u00edm, vytvo\u0159\u00ed prvek nerovnov\u00e1hy.\u00a0Volby Moskvy budou tak\u00e9 slo\u017eit\u00e9, ale vojensk\u00e1 opozice se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt vysoce nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 ze strany Arm\u00e9nie, kter\u00e1 je ji\u017e ohro\u017eena \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nskou hrozbou.\u00a0Situace od\u016fvodnila vytvo\u0159en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed konzulta\u010dn\u00ed platformy ve form\u00e1tu 3+3 (\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, Arm\u00e9nie, Gruzie plus Rusko, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Turecko).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>V \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, korunovan\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm v Karabachu, za kter\u00e9 vd\u011b\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b tureck\u00e9 pomoci\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref45\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn45\"><span>[45]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(a mo\u017en\u00e1 rusk\u00e9 neutralit\u011b), je re\u017eim v Baku pod kontrolou Ankary, ale nezauj\u00edm\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd postoj k Rusku.\u00a0Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Baku znovu za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Arm\u00e9nii, kter\u00e1 odm\u00edt\u00e1 otev\u0159\u00edt koridor pro p\u0159ipojen\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu ke sv\u00e9 enkl\u00e1v\u011b.\u00a0Mezi Baku a Moskvou budou uzav\u0159eny dohody o t\u011b\u017eb\u011b plynu a ropy.\u00a0Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Vladimirem Vladimirovi\u010dem Putinem a Reccepem Tayipem Erdoganem se neomezuj\u00ed pouze na \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e a Ukrajinu, ale zahrnuj\u00ed Afriku a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, a to na z\u00e1klad\u011b realistick\u00e9 politiky a nikoli d\u011btsk\u00fdch egoher.\u00a0Vazby nav\u00e1zan\u00e9 mezi Moskvou a Teher\u00e1nem budou hr\u00e1t roli i lok\u00e1ln\u011b, a\u010dkoli v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ankary i \u00cdr\u00e1nu hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se pozornost zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na situaci na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>V Kazachst\u00e1nu<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0se tokajevsk\u00e9mu re\u017eimu dvo\u0159\u00ed USA, N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref46\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn46\"><span>[46]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a Francie, 1. listopadu cesta prezidenta Macrona do Astany\u00a0<\/span><sup><span>(<\/span><\/sup><span>\u00a0n\u00e1sledovala cesta Erdogana\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref47\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn47\"><span>[47]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, pot\u00e9 cesta Orbana)\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref48\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn48\"><span>[48]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0P\u0159edn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd producent uranu\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref49\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn49\"><span>[49]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, rovn\u011b\u017e bohat\u00e9ho na vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy, se tato rozlehl\u00e1 zem\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed distancovat od Ruska a t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze z\u00e1jmu \u010c\u00edny (kter\u00e1 vystupovala jako garant jej\u00edch hranic).\u00a0Rusko v\u0161ak st\u00e1le z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm partnerem a sousedem, kter\u00e9ho nelze opom\u00edjet.\u00a0Je to v\u0161ak velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 udr\u017eet rovnov\u00e1hu;\u00a0tak pot\u00e9, co prezident Tokajev b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy N\u011bmecka deklaroval svou podporu protirusk\u00e9mu sank\u010dn\u00edmu re\u017eimu a ukon\u010dil dod\u00e1vky 106 produkt\u016f, po\u017e\u00e1dal ruskou podporu k vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nedostatku paliva.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1mka dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle, n\u00e1jemn\u00ed smlouva na pozemek Bajkonur, uzav\u0159en\u00e1 do roku 2050, nebyla nav\u00fd\u0161ena.\u00a0M\u016f\u017eeme si myslet, \u017ee radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bna z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e jako n\u011bkolik jej\u00edch soused\u016f mus\u00ed zem\u011b, ze 70 % muslimsk\u00e1, ale sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed, \u010delit islamistick\u00e9 hrozb\u011b.\u00a0A kone\u010dn\u011b, vztahy s ob\u010dany zem\u011b imigruj\u00edc\u00edmi do Ruska jsou obecn\u011b dobr\u00e9, na rozd\u00edl od jin\u00fdch sousedn\u00edch n\u00e1rodnost\u00ed.\u00a0Nav\u00edc v lednu 2022 zdegenerovalo siln\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si vynutilo z\u00e1sah ODKB, pota\u017emo rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 re\u017eim zachr\u00e1nila.\u00a0M\u00edstn\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 velmi podporuj\u00ed VV Putina a jsou sp\u00ed\u0161e sinofobn\u00ed.\u00a0O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee prezident Putin bude v Astan\u011b p\u0159ijat 9. listopadu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0je \u010dlenem \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci a tak\u00e9 Smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti (OTSC) a je velmi z\u00e1visl\u00fd na Rusku, kter\u00e9 v\u00edt\u00e1 velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed t\u00e1d\u017eick\u00fdch imigrant\u016f (33 % pracovn\u00edk\u016f emigruje, z toho 90 % v Rusku).\u00a0Obyvatelstvo je spojeno s Persi\u00ed a zem\u011b trp\u011bla sousedstv\u00edm Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, kde T\u00e1d\u017eikov\u00e9 vystupuj\u00ed proti Pa\u0161tun\u016fm;\u00a0krom\u011b rusk\u00e9ho sousedstv\u00ed soused\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou a \u00cdr\u00e1n nav\u00e1zal dobr\u00e9 vztahy s T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd ho sponzoroval pro vstup do \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizace.\u00a0Zem\u011b p\u0159iznala z\u00e1kladny NATO (Francie m\u011bla z\u00e1kladnu v Du\u0161anbe) b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.\u00a0V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b tam Rusko udr\u017euje vojenskou z\u00e1kladnu 201.\u00a0Vztahy jsou slo\u017eit\u00e9, siln\u00e1 remanence rusk\u00e9 a sov\u011btsk\u00e9 minulosti, ale politika derusifikace v roce 2007;\u00a0Du\u0161anbe zav\u00e1d\u00ed dohodu IPT.\u00a0Re\u017eim se siln\u011b ob\u00e1v\u00e1 radik\u00e1ln\u00edho islamismu.\u00a0Je tedy nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se vztahy s Moskvou n\u00e1hle zhor\u0161ily, ale jsou zde z\u00e1rodky neshod, kter\u00e9 se anglosask\u00e1 politika \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm chaosu sna\u017e\u00ed znovu rozdm\u00fdchat.\u00a0T\u00e1d\u017eick\u00e1 enkl\u00e1va Vorough je nav\u00edc p\u0159edm\u011btem st\u0159et\u016f s Kyrgyzst\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd musel evakuovat 60 000 lid\u00ed.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v oblasti nar\u016fst\u00e1 nap\u011bt\u00ed, co\u017e by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vedlo ke stabiliza\u010dn\u00ed intervenci ze strany ciz\u00edch mocnost\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b Rusk\u00e9 federace (ale kolektivn\u00ed akce ze strany CSTO by byla zjevn\u011b diplomati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed).\u00a0Nakonec, na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022, po spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed SVO\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref50\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn50\"><span>[50]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a sta\u017een\u00ed z K\u00e1bulu, Pentagon kontaktoval t\u00e1d\u017eick\u00e9 a uzbeck\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady, aby v t\u011bchto dvou zem\u00edch z\u0159\u00eddily z\u00e1kladny.\u00a0Pokud se Rusko zd\u00e1lo b\u00fdt poskytovatelem bezpe\u010dnosti a \u010c\u00edna ekonomick\u00e9ho rozvoje, pozorujeme, \u017ee Peking rozv\u00edj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vztahy v\u00edce ne\u017e Moskva, a to i na vojensk\u00e9 \u00farovni\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref51\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn51\"><span>[51]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Moskva a Peking se v\u0161ak dohodly, \u017ee se pokus\u00ed zatla\u010dit z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv v regionu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>V Kyrgyzst\u00e1nu<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0je uzav\u0159ena hranice s T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nem a nap\u011bt\u00ed vedlo p\u0159ed deseti lety k vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed 300 000 Uzbek\u016f.\u00a0USA udr\u017eovaly z\u00e1kladnu v Manasu pobl\u00ed\u017e Bi\u0161keku b\u011bhem operac\u00ed v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.\u00a0V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u00e1 Rusko z\u00e1kladnu Kant.\u00a0Spolupr\u00e1ce Bi\u0161keku s Moskvou je dobr\u00e1, o \u010dem\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta loni v \u0159\u00edjnu, p\u0159ed jeho cestou do \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Uzbekist\u00e1n a Turkmenist\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0jsou od rozpadu SSSR pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za st\u0159edoasijsk\u00e9 republiky nejodoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016f\u010di rusk\u00e9mu vlivu.\u00a0Uzbekist\u00e1n\u00a0je zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dlenem Shanghai Organization a \u010dlenem CSTO\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span>Ta\u0161kent z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00edm m\u011bstem zem\u011b velmi zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a bavlnu a siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na emigraci sv\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f do Ruska, a\u010dkoli le\u017e\u00ed na Hedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezce a je objektem z\u00e1padn\u00edho z\u00e1jmu (srov. cesta prezidenta Macrona).\u00a0V Rusku jsou uzbeck\u00e9 komunity, z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159\u00edtomn\u00e9 v centrech MMA, mnoh\u00fdmi pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za kriminogenn\u00ed a import\u00e9ry radik\u00e1ln\u00edho isl\u00e1mu;\u00a0Uzbekist\u00e1n je v\u0161ak sekul\u00e1rn\u00edm st\u00e1tem, i kdy\u017e z 94 % je muslimsk\u00fd\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref52\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn52\"><span>[52]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Zem\u011b formalizovala svou podporu Ukrajin\u011b, odm\u00edtnut\u00ed anga\u017eovat voj\u00e1ky v prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm konfliktu a uznat republiky Don\u011bck a Lugansk v roce 2022. Od t\u00e9 doby je ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed lini\u00ed neutralita a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Ukrajinu podporuj\u00ed pouze pokrok\u00e1\u0159i.\u00a0Prezident Chavkan Mizroiev, znovuzvolen\u00fd v \u010dervenci 2023 (87 % hlas\u016f), je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za reform\u00e1tora.\u00a0Skoncoval s odstupem od Moskvy, o kter\u00e9m rozhodl jeho p\u0159edch\u016fdce, a p\u0159ijal linii rovnov\u00e1hy s Ruskem.\u00a0Rozvinul tak\u00e9 vztahy s \u010c\u00ednou\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref53\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn53\"><span>[53]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0a p\u0159eje si otev\u0159\u00edt svou zemi spolupr\u00e1ci se zahrani\u010d\u00edm.\u00a0Pokud dojde k v\u00fdvoji mezi Moskvou a Ta\u0161kentem, m\u011bl by se\u00a0<\/span><em><span>a priori<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0t\u00fdkat sp\u00ed\u0161e migra\u010dn\u00edch vztah\u016f a zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s uzbeck\u00fdmi komunitami v Rusku.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Turkmenist\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0deklaroval svou neutralitu v OSN v roce 1995 a nevstoupil do \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z region\u00e1ln\u00edch organizac\u00ed (v t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 smlouva, CSTO, SNS atd.);\u00a0je to nicm\u00e9n\u011b strategick\u00fd st\u00e1t pro Moskvu\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref54\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn54\"><span>[54]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 slou\u017e\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu a m\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165\u00a0<\/span><em><span>potrub\u00ed<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0a plynovod\u016f u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdch pro energetick\u00e9 vztahy s \u010c\u00ednou.\u00a0Nov\u00fd turkmensk\u00fd prezident (n\u00e1stupce po sv\u00e9m otci) Serdar Berdymuhamedov p\u0159ijal prezidenta Putina a vyzdvihl strategick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed a p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 vazby mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi, \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed SVO na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Byl pozv\u00e1n na posledn\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00edk Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho f\u00f3ra v Petrohrad\u011b.\u00a0A\u0161chabad p\u0159esto v roce 1992 nav\u00e1zal partnerstv\u00ed s NATO, v roce 1994 se stal \u010dlenem Partnerstv\u00ed pro m\u00edr a v roce 1997 se p\u0159ipojil k Euroatlantick\u00e9 rad\u011b partnerstv\u00ed.\u00a0Od roku 2015 nedo\u0161lo k poskytnut\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f kv\u016fli politice neutrality zem\u011b ani k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm spole\u010dn\u00fdm aktivit\u00e1m. Navzdory z\u00e1jmu o EU mimo Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e se zd\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by zem\u011b v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu zm\u011bnila politiku v\u016f\u010di Moskv\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Historick\u00e9 a kulturn\u00ed vazby, energetick\u00e1 a ekonomick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slabost v oblasti vystaven\u00e9 hrozb\u011b radik\u00e1ln\u00edho islamismu a etnick\u00e9 opozice zakazuj\u00ed st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm Kazachst\u00e1n, Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, Uzbekist\u00e1n, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n a Turkmenist\u00e1n postavit se Rusku p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159\u00edmo\u010da\u0159e.\u00a0Existuje v\u0161ak postkoloni\u00e1ln\u00ed pocit a touha osvobodit se od rusk\u00e9ho dohledu z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u00fdch partnerstv\u00ed;\u00a0\u010c\u00edna, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Turecko a dokonce i Indie jsou p\u0159ipraveny tento po\u017eadavek splnit.\u00a0Vztahy se v tomto sm\u011bru sna\u017e\u00ed rozv\u00edjet i Z\u00e1pa\u010fan\u00e9, na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b N\u011bmci a Francouzi, na druh\u00e9m USA.\u00a0M\u016f\u017eeme v\u0161ak nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 okam\u017eit\u00e1 zm\u011bna se nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt mo\u017en\u00e1, navzdory ekonomick\u00fdm dopad\u016fm z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed a ur\u010dit\u00e9 distancov\u00e1n\u00ed se od SVO na Ukrajin\u011b ze strany vl\u00e1d, ne-li obyvatel.\u00a0Na z\u00e1klad\u011b ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00edho radik\u00e1ln\u00edho driftu pokou\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho se importovat do regionu formu netradi\u010dn\u00edho isl\u00e1mu by v\u0161ak destabiliza\u010dn\u00ed operace anglosask\u00fdch slu\u017eeb mohly v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnit situaci.\u00a0Na konci \u0159\u00edjna FSB vybrala Uzbekist\u00e1n, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n, Kazachst\u00e1n a Kyrgyzst\u00e1n jako pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 c\u00edle pro pokusy o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00edho chal\u00edf\u00e1tu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"block-title\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Dom\u00e1c\u00ed fronta<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Jak je pravidlem b\u011bhem konflikt\u016f, otev\u0159en\u00fdch nebo latentn\u00edch, ukrajinsk\u00e9 a anglosask\u00e9 (a mo\u017en\u00e1 i francouzsk\u00e9) slu\u017eby prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed operace k destabilizaci Rusk\u00e9 federace (viz v\u00fd\u0161e\u00a0<\/span><em><span>)<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Prezident Putin s odkazem na \u201e\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><em><span>americk\u00e9 elity t\u011b\u017e\u00edc\u00ed z glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nestability<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0\u00a0\u201c hovo\u0159il o \u201epavoukovi ve sv\u00e9 s\u00edti\u201c, kter\u00fd se pokou\u0161\u00ed aktivovat vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a vnit\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b.\u00a0Ud\u00e1losti z 29. \u0159\u00edjna 2023 na leti\u0161ti Macha\u010dkala v Republice Dagest\u00e1n, kdy se dav pokusil napadnout cestuj\u00edc\u00ed v letadle\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Red Wing<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00edm z Tel Avivu, byly pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za pokus o Majdan v Dagest\u00e1nu.\u00a0Tento st\u00e1t federace (kter\u00fd m\u00e1 22), kter\u00fd trp\u011bl konfliktem v \u010ce\u010densku a ozbrojen\u00fdm radik\u00e1ln\u00edm islamismem v letech 1996 a\u017e 2015, je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti muslimsk\u00fd (83 % populace), ale etnicky r\u016fznorod\u00fd;\u00a0Je pova\u017eov\u00e1na za sou\u010d\u00e1st \u201eKavkazsk\u00e9ho chal\u00edf\u00e1tu\u201c sv\u00fdmi zast\u00e1nci, je hlavn\u00edm zdrojem mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016f z Ruska a za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst salafistick\u00e9ho vlivu.\u00a0V\u00fdzvy na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch a kan\u00e1lu\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Outro Dagestan\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref55\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn55\"><strong><span>[55]<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><span>\u00a0podn\u011bcovaly \u00fatoky na izraelsk\u00e9 cestuj\u00edc\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref56\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn56\"><span>[56]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0\u00da\u0159ady reagovaly vysl\u00e1n\u00edm velk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch sil a 282 lid\u00ed z 850 \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f bylo zat\u010deno bez krveprolit\u00ed.\u00a0Dagest\u00e1nsk\u00e1 hlava st\u00e1tu Melikov stigmatizoval pachatele tohoto n\u00e1sil\u00ed proti \u017eidovsk\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm a cel\u00fd rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed apar\u00e1t se rozhodl tento typ agrese odsoudit, potla\u010dit a zabr\u00e1nit [57\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref57\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn57\"><span>]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.\u00a0Prezident Putin b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho projevu ke Dni jednoty 3. listopadu ozna\u010dil pokusy Z\u00e1padu organizovat pogromy na \u017didy v Rusku za \u201eneuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b nechutn\u00e9\u201c.\u00a0Mufti z Dagest\u00e1nu tak\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u011b odsoudil tento pokus o kolektivn\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed a propustil dva vedouc\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed byli p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 horliv\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 podpo\u0159e Hamasu;\u00a0ale je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed im\u00e1mov\u00e9 a m\u00edstn\u00ed celebrity (zejm\u00e9na \u0161ampioni MMA) volali po shov\u00edvavosti pro pachatele.\u00a0V\u016fdce \u010ce\u010denska rovn\u011b\u017e odsoudil\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref58\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn58\"><span>[58]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0tato nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1 poru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kona v Rusku, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b na pokyn Moskvy;\u00a0ve sv\u00e9m nenapodobiteln\u00e9m stylu navrhoval\u00a0\u00a0pachatel\u016fm \u201e\u00a0<\/span><em><span>vyp\u00e1lit t\u0159i varovn\u00e9 v\u00fdst\u0159ely do vzduchu a \u010dtvrt\u00fd do \u010dela\u00a0 \u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokus o vyu\u017eit\u00ed etnick\u00e9ho, n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho a soci\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi nep\u0159\u00edtelem je zjevn\u011b velkou klasikou podvracen\u00ed.\u00a0Reakce n\u011bkter\u00fdch Dagest\u00e1nc\u016f a masivn\u00ed a pravideln\u00e9 vyho\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed migrant\u016f z Ruska\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref59\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn59\"><span>[59]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, jejich obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ze zlo\u010dinu \u010detn\u00fdmi kan\u00e1ly soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 rusk\u00fdm ministrem vnitra Kolokolcevem\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref60\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn60\"><span>[ 60]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, jejich nadm\u011brn\u00e9 zastoupen\u00ed v n\u00e1silnostech ud\u00e1losti, \u010dasto spojen\u00e9 s etnick\u00fdmi bojov\u00fdmi sportovn\u00edmi kluby\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref61\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn61\"><span>[61]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, mohly nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee tato strategie m\u00e1 \u0161anci z\u00edskat stejn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky jako v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady maj\u00ed kapacitu hromadn\u011b vyh\u00e1n\u011bt a vyjedn\u00e1vat se zem\u011bmi odchodu z pozice s\u00edly, tvrd\u011b potla\u010dovat zlo\u010diny a p\u0159estupky spojen\u00e9 s drogami [62] , a \u017ee vlasteneck\u00e1 mystika st\u00e1le\u00a0<\/span><a id=\"_ftnref62\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftn62\"><span>nach\u00e1z\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0ozv\u011bnu v republik\u00e1ch (tak\u017ee 25 000 Dagest\u00e1nc\u016f slou\u017eilo nebo slou\u017e\u00ed b\u011bhem speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace a st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci okrajov\u00fdch republik jsou v pom\u011bru k jejich populaci nadm\u011brn\u011b zastoupeni v sil\u00e1ch anga\u017eovan\u00fdch na Ukrajin\u011b).\u00a0M\u016f\u017eeme tedy jen doufat, \u017ee odm\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 pevnost, kterou prok\u00e1zaly rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady, umo\u017en\u00ed vyhnout se op\u011btovn\u00e9mu spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed islamistick\u00e9ho terorismu, kter\u00fd by vytvo\u0159il druhou frontu.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"abh_name fn name\"><em><strong>Autor: Olivier CHAMBRIN<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n<div class=\"description note abh_description\"><span>B\u00fdval\u00fd arm\u00e1dn\u00ed d\u016fstojn\u00edk, kter\u00fd slou\u017eil jako zpravodajsk\u00fd analytik na ambas\u00e1d\u00e1ch a v n\u00e1rodn\u00ed policii<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator aligncenter has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn1\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref1\"><span>[1]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Po dvou prezidentsk\u00fdch \u201ez\u00e1jezdech\u201c, kter\u00e9 se uk\u00e1zaly jako v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 selh\u00e1n\u00ed, a koali\u010dn\u00ed iniciativ\u011b proti HAMAS zah\u00e1jen\u00e9 v Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b, kter\u00e1 nez\u00edskala jasnou podporu<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn2\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref2\"><span>[2]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Vize, z n\u00ed\u017e vych\u00e1z\u00ed Wolfovitzova doktr\u00edna, diplomaticko-vojensk\u00e9 orientace definovan\u00e9 Z. Brzezinskim, historicko-politick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy E.\u00a0Luttwak.\u00a0Odlesky Huntingtona, v sou\u010dasnosti Mearshimera nebo R. Kagana j\u00edm z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b prodchnuty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn3\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref3\"><span>[3]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0I kdy\u017e speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace nyn\u00ed dos\u00e1hla \u00farovn\u011b pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jej\u00ed\u017e masov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky jsou mimo dosah zem\u00ed NATO s v\u00fdjimkou USA, m\u00e1 mnoho spole\u010dn\u00fdch bod\u016f se \u0161pan\u011blskou v\u00e1lkou v letech 1936-1939, pokud jde o technick\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed, taktick\u00e9 inovace a p\u0159\u00edprava na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn4\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref4\"><span>[4]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 a kone\u010dn\u011b se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee prolom\u00ed kyjevskou ofenz\u00edvu<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn5\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref5\"><span>[5]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u00edky tomu bude mo\u017en\u00e9 posoudit pot\u0159eby budouc\u00edho Su 57<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn6\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref6\"><span>[6]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0A priori dosud nepou\u017eito<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn7\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref7\"><span>[7]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Jeho\u017e vzhled odpov\u00eddal skute\u010dn\u00e9mu masakru kyjevsk\u00e9ho letectva<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn8\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref8\"><span>[8]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Rusk\u00fd obrann\u00fd rozpo\u010det se v roce 2024 zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed a dos\u00e1hne 6 % HDP, pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla se na z\u00e1klad\u011b smlouvy zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed o 380 000 mu\u017e\u016f, do slu\u017eby budou uvedeny nov\u00e9 zbran\u011b a modernizovan\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, aby bylo \u201ebojem ov\u011b\u0159eno\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn9\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref9\"><span>[9]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Jadern\u00e9 s\u00edly tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z modernizac\u00ed, star\u00e9 Tu 95 pravideln\u011b l\u00e9taj\u00ed a nesou modern\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely, nov\u00fd ICBM Sarmat vstoupil do slu\u017eby a SSBN nesouc\u00ed autonomn\u00ed torp\u00e9da (ex Poseidon), rakety se zm\u011bnou modernizovan\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed (ex Bulava ) nebo samonosn\u00fd podvodn\u00ed d\u016fl SDMD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn10\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref10\"><span>[10]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Strategick\u00fd c\u00edl glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonie, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dosa\u017een\u00fd po p\u00e1du SSSR prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 s\u00edly a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed kontroly, se v sou\u010dasnosti zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v procesu eroze.\u00a0Schopnosti po\u017eadovan\u00e9 z hlediska technologie a financov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn11\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref11\"><span>[11]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u201ekorejsk\u00e9ho stylu\u201c (kter\u00e9 by bylo v letech 1954 a\u017e 1989 stejn\u011b \u201en\u011bmeck\u00e9\u201c, kter\u00e9 se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt pochybn\u00e9 s ohledem na definovan\u00e9 c\u00edle ze strany Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn12\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref12\"><span>[12]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Tato nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 strategie je ze strany thalassokracie logick\u00e1 a p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9m n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvu Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, proti Francii obecn\u011b a Napoleonovi I.\u00a0<\/span><sup><span>zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b<\/span><\/sup><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn13\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref13\"><span>[13]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Sult\u00e1n Erdogan po\u017e\u00e1dal tureck\u00fd parlament o potvrzen\u00ed jeho souhlasu ve prosp\u011bch \u0160v\u00e9dska dne 23. \u0159\u00edjna 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn14\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref14\"><span>[14]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Lehk\u00e9 zbran\u011b, st\u0159elivo, st\u0159ely, obrn\u011bn\u00e1 vozidla a dokonce i letadla.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn15\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref15\"><span>[15]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a030 000 aktivn\u00edch a 25 000 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f, ale potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed skupina 4 milion\u016f mu\u017e\u016f a \u017een pro \u0160v\u00e9dsko, 34 000 aktivn\u00edch v\u010detn\u011b 12 000 profesion\u00e1l\u016f, ale skupina 2 200 000 mu\u017e\u016f a \u017een pro Finsko.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn16\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref16\"><span>[16]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0N\u00e1vrat k odvodu ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku, dohoda s USMC a americk\u00fdm letectvem ve Vaernes v Norsku, vytvo\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny ve Finsku ozn\u00e1men\u00e9 v kv\u011btnu 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn17\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref17\"><span>[17]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0V analytick\u00e9 pr\u00e1ci je n\u011bkdy t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 odolat poku\u0161en\u00ed politick\u00e9 fikce, ale tato mo\u017enost se nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt zcela v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e1 a na\u0161la odezvu v Rusku i na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b Bugu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn18\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref18\"><span>[18]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Britov\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na po brexitu, si udr\u017euj\u00ed sv\u016fj \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vztah\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn19\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref19\"><span>[19]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Tlak z Bruselu a pot\u00e9 z Washingtonu neutralizuje politick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, k n\u011bmu\u017e by volby mohly v\u00e9st, jak ukazuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpady It\u00e1lie, v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e Slovenska a mimo EU Srbska a Arm\u00e9nie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn20\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref20\"><span>[20]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0To nebyl p\u0159\u00edpad SSSR, jeho\u017e doktr\u00edna p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala \u201eliber\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c pou\u017eit\u00ed divadeln\u00edch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0Sou\u010dasn\u00fd koncept je zcela srovnateln\u00fd s francouzsk\u00fdm Dissuasion, na kter\u00fd odp\u016frci rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta zapom\u00ednaj\u00ed, kdy\u017e mluv\u00ed o jeho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch, nav\u00edc odm\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch, na toto t\u00e9ma.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn21\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref21\"><span>[21]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 zdroje uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed vazby sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho kancl\u00e9\u0159e z SPD na CIA.\u00a0Kupodivu se O. Scholtz neobjevuje v Atlantiku Br\u00fccke, kter\u00fd \u010d\u00edt\u00e1 do sv\u00fdch \u0159ad posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i kancl\u00e9\u0159e, H. Kissinger, sou\u010dasn\u00fd prezident a gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel Airbus Industries (co\u017e mnoh\u00e9 vysv\u011btluje), b\u00fdval\u00fd p\u0159edseda Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu atd. \u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn22\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref22\"><span>[22]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0A se kter\u00fdm bylo podeps\u00e1no pouze p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed faktickou okupaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn23\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref23\"><span>[23]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0N\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk \u0161t\u00e1bu a n\u011bkolik n\u011bmeck\u00fdch gener\u00e1l\u016f tvrdili, \u017ee Bundeswehr je vy\u010derpan\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn24\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref24\"><span>[24]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Francouzsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dos\u00e1hne definovan\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f v roce 2030, kter\u00e9 uspokoj\u00ed pot\u0159eby\u2026 2010. S flotilami p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b pod 24 tun, prvenstv\u00ed kola nad housenkou, n\u00e1kup p\u0159esn\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed, ale p\u0159i \u00fapln\u00e9 absenci hmoty , tato arm\u00e1da je orientov\u00e1na na expedi\u010dn\u00ed.\u00a0Se v\u0161emi schopnostmi, ale v uk\u00e1zkov\u00e9m re\u017eimu, p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 stav c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy z roku 1870, veden\u00e9 k\u00e1dry vycvi\u010den\u00fdmi v taktice napoleonsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry nebo v koloni\u00e1ln\u00edch partyz\u00e1nech a \u010del\u00edc\u00ed modern\u00ed prusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b.\u00a0Francie u\u017e dlouho musela z\u0159\u00eddit dv\u011b spole\u010dn\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, liniovou arm\u00e1du pro Evropu a lehkou arm\u00e1du pro kolonie;\u00a0V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b z\u00e1vazky formovaly lehkou arm\u00e1du, v tomto kontextu efektivn\u00ed, ale nevhodnou pro vysokou intenzitu a pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00e1lku.\u00a0Osud AMX 10 RC na Ukrajin\u011b je neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn25\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref25\"><span>[25]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Diaspory ve Francii p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed sv\u00e9 opozice lok\u00e1ln\u011b, jak ukazuj\u00ed reakce na po\u017e\u00e1r Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu ve Francii samotn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn26\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref26\"><span>[26]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Francie je 5. ekonomick\u00fdm partnerem Kazachst\u00e1nu \u2013 zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky TOTAL \u2013, odkud dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed 40 % sv\u00e9ho uranu a Francouzsk\u00e1 rozvojov\u00e1 agentura si klade za c\u00edl prohloubit v\u00fdm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn27\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref27\"><span>[27]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a022 prorusk\u00fdch civilist\u016f bylo \u00fadajn\u011b zavra\u017ed\u011bno ozbrojenci Prav\u00e9ho sektoru v Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti 8. \u0159\u00edjna<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn28\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref28\"><span>[28]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Podle ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u00fanik\u016f byl polone\u00fasp\u011bch \u00fatoku na krymsk\u00fd most p\u0159edm\u011btem sledov\u00e1n\u00ed MI6 se spole\u010dn\u00fdm spisem britsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f Donnellyho a Warda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn29\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref29\"><span>[29]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 zdroje dokonce uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 are\u00e1ly pod z\u00e1\u0161titou MI 6. Ve skute\u010dnosti byla jadern\u00e1 elektr\u00e1rna Kursk p\u0159edm\u011btem \u00fatoku bezpilotn\u00edho letadla, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem byl podle \u0159editele FSB \u00fatok na Novovoronej. 21. \u0159\u00edjna a Zaparodj\u00e8 je \u010dast\u00fdm c\u00edlem d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 palby a dron\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn30\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref30\"><span>[30]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Special Air Service, komanda speci\u00e1ln\u00edch sil zap\u016fj\u010den\u00e1 MO MI6 pro vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1sahy<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn31\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref31\"><span>[31]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Nov\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Fica, nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9ho k vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed do v\u00e1lky mezi Kyjevem a Moskvou, podporuje Lubo\u0161 Bl\u00e1ha, nyn\u00ed p\u0159edseda slovensk\u00e9ho parlamentu, velmi anti-NATO a rusofil.\u00a0Povzbudily je parlamentn\u00ed volby, kter\u00e9 demonstrovaly odm\u00edtnut\u00ed slovensk\u00e9 politiky anga\u017eovanosti po boku Kyjeva od roku 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn32\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref32\"><span>[32]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Nov\u00fdm kyjevsk\u00fdm ministrem obrany je Tatar pat\u0159\u00edc\u00ed ke g\u00fclenistick\u00e9mu hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 bylo obvin\u011bno z pokusu o pu\u010d v roce 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn33\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref33\"><span>[33]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Osud gener\u00e1la Haftara, podporovan\u00e9ho Wagnerem s mal\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem, bude nepochybn\u011b z\u00e1viset na rusko-tureck\u00e9 dohod\u011b<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn34\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref34\"><span>[34]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed byl ozn\u00e1men prodej majetku spole\u010dnosti rodinou Prigozhinov\u00fdch, po\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu 2023 jmenov\u00e1n\u00ed Prigozhinova syna Pavla do \u010dela spole\u010dnosti;\u00a0ale \u0161\u00e9f obrann\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru dumy Kartapolov ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee ChVK Wagner definitivn\u011b zanikla, jej\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci byli z v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti anga\u017eov\u00e1ni v Rusk\u00e9 gard\u011b nebo m\u011bli smlouvu s feder\u00e1ln\u00ed arm\u00e1dou.\u00a0Situace v B\u011blorusku z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e1.\u00a0V moskevsk\u00e9m regionu reklamy vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed lidi, aby se p\u0159ipojili k neidentifikovan\u00e9mu \u201eelitn\u00edmu sboru\u201c, p\u0159ihl\u00e1\u0161ky p\u0159ijat\u00e9 do 25. listopadu za 1 milion rubl\u016f a podle podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed podm\u00ednky z\u00e1vazk\u016f u Wagnera, a zm\u00ednka o cestov\u00e1n\u00ed z Moskvy po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b .\u00a0Nakonec podot\u00fdk\u00e1me, \u017ee 29. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 p\u0159ijal prezident Putin A. Tro\u0161eva, b\u00fdval\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Wagnera, s n\u00e1m\u011bstkem ministra obrany Jekurovem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn35\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref35\"><span>[35]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Uvedeno na feder\u00e1ln\u00edm seznamu teroristick\u00fdch a extremistick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn36\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref36\"><span>[36]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0I s Evropou na Kypru, kter\u00fd \u010del\u00ed \u0158ecku a kde jsou v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 tureck\u00e9 diaspory, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad v N\u011bmecku a v pom\u011bru k po\u010dtu obyvatel v Nizozemsku, Belgii, Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a Francii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn37\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref37\"><span>[37]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Ki\u0161in\u011bv by po polsk\u00e9m a rumunsk\u00e9m odm\u00edtnut\u00ed souhlasil s p\u0159ijet\u00edm F16 dodan\u00fdch na Ukrajinu na jej\u00edm leti\u0161ti Merculesti, pokud EU zaplat\u00ed 310 milion\u016f eur za jeho rekonstrukci, kter\u00e1 by vystavila sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed (ne\u010dlensk\u00e9 NATO) rusk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn38\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref38\"><span>[38]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed civiln\u00edch m\u00edst, podporovan\u00e9 a chv\u00e1len\u00e9 ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Clintonovy administrativy&#8230; jist\u00fdm Joe Bidenem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn39\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref39\"><span>[39]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0\u0160\u00e9f Evropsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru pro roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO G. Fehlinger p\u0159\u00edmo vyzval k bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed B\u011blehradu 24. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn40\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref40\"><span>[40]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Naru\u0161en\u00edm \u201eHedv\u00e1bn\u00fdch stezek\u201c a o\u017eiven\u00edm etnicko-n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 opozice, kter\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rezonuje v samotn\u00e9 \u010cLR.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn41\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref41\"><span>[41]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0V severoamerick\u00fdch my\u0161lenkov\u00fdch kruz\u00edch NEOCON existuje n\u011bkolik projekt\u016f na rozkouskov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska na mikrost\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 nach\u00e1zej\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 ucho v Evrop\u011b (Polsko, pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty atd.).\u00a0Je to imperialistick\u00e1 logika, kter\u00e1 \u0159\u00eddila zni\u010den\u00ed Jugosl\u00e1vie v 90. letech 20. stolet\u00ed.Je to tak\u00e9 Rooseveltovsk\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011blo rozkouskov\u00e1n\u00ed Francie;\u00a0ne\u00fasp\u011bch projektu AMGOT a gaullistick\u00fd postoj zabr\u00e1nily tomuto projektu v \u00fasp\u011bchu, ale zni\u010den\u00ed koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e bylo p\u0159esto dosa\u017eeno d\u00edky americk\u00e9 podpo\u0159e pro oponenty.\u00a0Prezident Vladimir Vladimirovi\u010d ve sv\u00fdch projevech systematicky trval na nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 pot\u0159eb\u011b zachovat sou\u017eit\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f a etnick\u00fdch skupin v r\u00e1mci Rusk\u00e9 federace, co\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201eantirasist\u00e9\u201c nikdy nezd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn42\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref42\"><span>[42]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee francouzsk\u00fd prezident ozn\u00e1mil 45 milion\u016f eur pro uprchl\u00edky z Artsakh, ale sedm bylo vyplaceno na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u0159\u00edjna.\u00a0Dv\u011b pozv\u00e1n\u00ed do Jerevanu byla odm\u00edtnuta, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e prezidenta nahradil ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn43\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref43\"><span>[43]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Premi\u00e9r Pa\u0161injan 26. \u0159\u00edjna 2023 prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Kreml mu chce vz\u00edt moc a \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ijmout ochrann\u00e1, protirusk\u00e1 a protiopozi\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed veden\u00e1 b\u00fdval\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Manukyanem.\u00a0Podle Moskvy bylo do Jerevanu vysl\u00e1no 270 \u017eensk\u00fdch a mu\u017esk\u00fdch agent\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9 GUR a SBU, aby zah\u00e1jili protirusk\u00e9 demonstrace, jako byl \u00fatok na velvyslanectv\u00ed v Jerevanu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn44\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref44\"><span>[44]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0A jejich nahrazen\u00ed Francouzi a Ameri\u010dany, ti posledn\u011b jmenovan\u00ed po\u017eaduj\u00ed, aby jejich jednotky zaru\u010den\u011b neutrp\u011bly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed (sic).\u00a0Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Mirzoyana p\u0159ed Radou bezpe\u010dnosti OSN dne 22. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn45\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref45\"><span>[45]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Dod\u00e1vky zdroj\u016f, zejm\u00e9na slavn\u00fdch Bayrakatarsk\u00fdch bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 podpora velen\u00ed v doktr\u00edn\u011b a \u0161t\u00e1bu a na zemi s tureck\u00fdmi komandy.\u00a0To pom\u011brn\u011b dob\u0159e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed podm\u00ednky rusk\u00e9 podpory Dama\u0161ku, Ankara za\u017eila ur\u010dit\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy v S\u00fdrii (kde byl sp\u00e1len prvn\u00ed Leopard 2 um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fd v opera\u010dn\u00ed situaci).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn46\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref46\"><span>[46]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Na summitu N\u011bmecko-st\u0159edn\u00ed Asie se za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna 2023 se\u0161li prezidenti Kazachst\u00e1nu, Kyrgyzst\u00e1nu, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nu a Turkmenist\u00e1nu<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn47\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref47\"><span>[47]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0od roku 2021 Organizace turkick\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f (OET) sdru\u017euje v\u0161echny turkicky mluv\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1ty St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie: Kazachst\u00e1n, Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, Uzbekist\u00e1n (\u010dlenov\u00e9) a Turkmenist\u00e1n (pozorovatel)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn48\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref48\"><span>[48]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0\u200b\u200bPartnerstv\u00ed bylo podeps\u00e1no s EU v listopadu 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn49\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref49\"><span>[49]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed dodavatel 56 francouzsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch reaktor\u016f na 27 %, p\u0159ed Uzbekist\u00e1nem, Namibi\u00ed a Austr\u00e1li\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pochybn\u00fdm zdrojem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 Niger.\u00a0Ka\u017ed\u00fd rok je pot\u0159eba 8000 tun uranu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn50\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref50\"><span>[50]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Spetsialna\u00efa Voenna\u00efa Operatsia, p\u0159elo\u017eeno jako \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 operace\u201c ve francouz\u0161tin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn51\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref51\"><span>[51]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0\u010c\u00edna monitoruje radik\u00e1ln\u00ed islamismus a riziko n\u00e1kazy mezi Ujgury a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zaji\u0161\u0165uje strategick\u00e9 osy t\u00e9to z\u00f3ny setk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch imperialism\u016f, rusk\u00e9ho, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho, persk\u00e9ho, tureck\u00e9ho a \u017ee se stav\u00ed proti posilov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn52\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref52\"><span>[52]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Ale kdo zakazuje no\u0161en\u00ed nik\u00e1bu a propagandu ve prosp\u011bch mnoho\u017eenstv\u00ed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn53\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref53\"><span>[53]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Vladimir Putin a Xi Ji Ping srde\u010dn\u011b blahop\u0159\u00e1li prezidentu Uzbekist\u00e1nu k jeho znovuzvolen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn54\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref54\"><span>[54]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Prezident Putin podnikl v l\u00e9t\u011b 2022 dv\u011b cesty do T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1nu a Turkmenist\u00e1nu<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn55\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref55\"><span>[55]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Channel re\u017e\u00edrovan\u00fd Abakarem Abakarovem, Dagest\u00e1ncem, kter\u00fd \u017eil v Od\u011bse v roce 2016 a spolupracoval s ukrajinskou SBU a s\u00eddl\u00ed v Turecku, podle rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn56\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref56\"><span>[56]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Francouzsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia se vz\u00e1cn\u00fdm (?) zl\u00fdm \u00famyslem o\u017eivila vzpom\u00ednku na historick\u00e9 pogromy v Rusku (zapomn\u011bla na Polsko), ani\u017e by zm\u00ednila slovo \u201eisl\u00e1m\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn57\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref57\"><span>[57]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Od 5. listopadu byl ministerstvem vnitra Dagest\u00e1nsk\u00e9 republiky zaveden pos\u00edlen\u00fd re\u017eim vym\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1va.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn58\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref58\"><span>[58]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 odsuzovat izraelsk\u00e9 akce v Gaze<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn59\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref59\"><span>[59]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Patriarcha Kyrill, p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc dobr\u00e9 vztahy s rusk\u00fdmi muslimy, nicm\u00e9n\u011b zd\u016fraznil rizika spojen\u00e1 s masovou isl\u00e1mskou imigrac\u00ed pro ruskou civilizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn60\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref60\"><span>[60]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee mezi lety 2022 a 2023 vzrostly trestn\u00e9 \u010diny a trestn\u00e9 \u010diny sp\u00e1chan\u00e9 migranty o 32 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u010dtvrtina z nich souvisela s drogov\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn61\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref61\"><span>[61]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Rada pro lidsk\u00e1 pr\u00e1va Rusk\u00e9 federace vyzvala k uzav\u0159en\u00ed podzemn\u00edch klub\u016f MMA, kter\u00e9 jsou \u201e\u017eivnou p\u016fdou pro radikalismus\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"_ftn62\" href=\"https:\/\/stratpol.com\/tour-dhorizon-de-la-situation-geostrategique-eurasienne\/#_ftnref62\"><span>[62]<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed za roky v trestaneck\u00fdch koloni\u00edch PAK vyho\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jejich ciz\u00edm pachatel\u016fm<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stranapro.cz\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-30218 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1367\" height=\"164\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-768x93.png 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner.png 849w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1367px) 100vw, 1367px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tento dokument je pokusem o interpretaci ud\u00e1lost\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se Ruska s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k dostupn\u00fdm informac\u00edm.\u00a0Nen\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2181,122,22,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39847"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39847\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39849,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39847\/revisions\/39849"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}