{"id":37990,"date":"2023-10-11T07:07:37","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T05:07:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=37990"},"modified":"2023-10-11T07:07:37","modified_gmt":"2023-10-11T05:07:37","slug":"abbas-juma-izrael-utrpi-touto-valkou-mnohem-vetsi-skody-nez-by-se-dalo-ocekavat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/10\/11\/abbas-juma-izrael-utrpi-touto-valkou-mnohem-vetsi-skody-nez-by-se-dalo-ocekavat\/","title":{"rendered":"Abbas Juma: Izrael utrp\u00ed touto v\u00e1lkou mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody, ne\u017e by se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Co m\u016f\u017ee Hizball\u00e1h p\u0159edv\u00e9st v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b plnohodnotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s Izraelem?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

7. \u0159\u00edjna sv\u011bt \u0161okovalo dal\u0161\u00ed vzplanut\u00ed palestinsko-izraelsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, tentokr\u00e1t velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho.\u00a0Ham\u00e1s nejen \u017ee vyp\u00e1lil rakety na Izrael, ale pronikl i na izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Operace nazvan\u00e1 Povode\u0148 Al-Aks\u00e1 byla bezprecedentn\u00ed z hlediska odvahy a pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Odhaduje se, \u017ee v\u00edce ne\u017e tis\u00edc Izraelc\u016f bylo zabito a v\u00edce ne\u017e 3 500 zran\u011bno, \u00fazem\u00ed byla dobyta, vojensk\u00fd person\u00e1l a civilist\u00e9 byli zajati jako rukojm\u00ed.\u00a0Izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu ozn\u00e1mil zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky v pln\u00e9m rozsahu a sl\u00edbil, \u017ee zanech\u00e1 p\u00e1smo Gazy v trosk\u00e1ch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti byly d\u016fsledkem nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho selh\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu v novodob\u00e9 historii.\u00a0V\u00e1\u017en\u011b ot\u0159\u00e1sli v\u00edrou ve \u201ev\u0161udyp\u0159\u00edtomnost\u201c Mossadu (izraelsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby) a neporazitelnost izraelsk\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch sil (IDF).\u00a0Po mnoho hodin byla izraelsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da naprosto bezmocn\u00e1, kdy\u017e na zemi za\u00fato\u010dily palestinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 skupiny.\u00a0Izraelsk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdce se tak\u00e9 nepoda\u0159ilo katastrof\u011b nijak zabr\u00e1nit.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm byl i den, kter\u00fd Ham\u00e1s zvolil pro zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operace, zcela symbolick\u00fd \u2013 50. v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed Jomkipursk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v roce 1973.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasnosti maj\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady jedin\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko \u2013 sm\u00fdt svou potupu krv\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele.\u00a0Toho by se dalo dos\u00e1hnout sta\u017een\u00edm pozemn\u00edch jednotek do Gazy a zasazen\u00edm ni\u010div\u00e9ho \u00faderu Hamasu.\u00a0V\u011bci v\u0161ak d\u00e1le komplikuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Hamas nen\u00ed s\u00e1m.\u00a0Podporuje ji \u00cdr\u00e1n a libanonsk\u00e1 militantn\u00ed organizace Hizball\u00e1h.\u00a0Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve Hizball\u00e1h sl\u00edbil otev\u0159en\u00ed druh\u00e9 fronty a dnes se otev\u0159en\u011b p\u0159ipojil k ozbrojen\u00e9mu konfliktu na stran\u011b Palestinc\u016f.\u00a0Dosud zas\u00e1hla pouze z pohrani\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0Strany si vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fadery, Hizball\u00e1h u\u017e m\u00e1 mrtv\u00e9, za co\u017e veden\u00ed hnut\u00ed sl\u00edbilo pomstu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h vlastn\u00ed pokro\u010dil\u00e9 zbran\u011b, zna\u010dn\u00e9 bojov\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti a m\u00e1 plnou podporu Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed t\u0159eba soupe\u0159e podce\u0148ovat\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Mike Pompeo varoval, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h je v posledn\u00edch letech nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy.\u00a0S velk\u00fdmi v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edmi na boji\u0161ti v S\u00fdrii, obrovsk\u00fdm zbrojn\u00edm arzen\u00e1lem v Libanonu a mocn\u00fdmi spojenci v cel\u00e9m regionu je Hizball\u00e1h na vrcholu sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 moci a je nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed od sv\u00e9ho zalo\u017een\u00ed v roce 1985.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u011b zn\u00e1mo, jak\u00fd p\u0159esn\u011b typ zbran\u00ed Hizball\u00e1h vlastn\u00ed a kolik zbran\u00ed m\u00e1, ani jak velk\u00e9 jsou bojov\u00e9 jednotky organizace (Hizball\u00e1h nen\u00ed jen polovojensk\u00e1 formace, ale legitimn\u00ed politick\u00e1 strana v Libanonu).\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 informace jsou v\u0161ak k dispozici.\u00a0Ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e1 data a pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako informace od lid\u00ed sv\u00e1zan\u00fdch s organizac\u00ed, n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed vyvodit ur\u010dit\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1l p\u0159ekvapit\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Na bojovn\u00edky Hizball\u00e1hu lze teoreticky p\u0159ev\u00e9st v\u0161e, co \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex nab\u00edz\u00ed.\u00a0To zahrnuje des\u00edtky typ\u016f raket a dron\u016f.\u00a0Teher\u00e1n nav\u00edc Hizball\u00e1hu pom\u00e1h\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u011b stovkami milion\u016f dolar\u016f.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h m\u016f\u017ee Izraeli kl\u00e1st v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd odpor nejen na sou\u0161i, ale tak\u00e9 na mo\u0159i a ve vzduchu.\u00a0Existuj\u00ed d\u016fkazy, \u017ee v posledn\u00edch letech Hizball\u00e1h z\u00edskal pokro\u010dil\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b protilodn\u00edch \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Yakhont a C-802, stejn\u011b jako ponorky UAV.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00e1 tak\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely.\u00a0Experti tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee dosah \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket je 500 a\u017e 700 kilometr\u016f, co\u017e jim umo\u017e\u0148uje zas\u00e1hnout jak\u00fdkoli bod na map\u011b v Izraeli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o po\u010det bojovn\u00edk\u016f, p\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk Hizball\u00e1hu\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee organizace m\u00e1 asi 100 000 vycvi\u010den\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f.\u00a0Hassan Nasrall\u00e1h zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee jde pouze o po\u010det profesion\u00e1ln\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f.\u00a0Organizace m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 z\u00edskat podporu mnoha spojeneck\u00fdch skupin a n\u00e1sledovn\u00edk\u016f z cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na rakety a dal\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Arzen\u00e1l raketov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu od roku 2006 (druh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v Libanonu) neust\u00e1le roste.\u00a0Podle\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1v<\/span><\/a>\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00ed m\u00e1 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b asi 200 000 raket, v\u010detn\u011b vysoce p\u0159esn\u00fdch inteligentn\u00edch raketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, stejn\u011b jako dron\u016f a syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd protitankov\u00fd raketov\u00fd syst\u00e9m Kornet byl pou\u017eit b\u011bhem boj\u016f v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu v roce 2006 a dok\u00e1zal zas\u00e1hnout izraelsk\u00e9 tanky Merkava.\u00a0Pokud jde o vysoce p\u0159esn\u00e9 st\u0159ely, kter\u00e9 Netanjahu zm\u00ednil v OSN v letech 2017 a 2018, jedn\u00e1 se o d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 rakety Zelzal (dost\u0159el 160 km), kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n aktivn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edval ve v\u00e1lce s Ir\u00e1kem (1980-1988), d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 rakety Zelzal-2 ( dosah 210 km) a balistick\u00e1 st\u0159ela zem\u011b-zem\u011b Fateh-110.\u00a0Ten byl\u00a0<\/span>pou\u017eit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0b\u011bhem operace Martyr Soleimani, kterou zah\u00e1jily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy (IRGC) proti americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b v Ir\u00e1ku v reakci na atent\u00e1t na velitele jednotek Quds, gener\u00e1la Qassema Soleimaniho, kter\u00fd byl zabit v Bagd\u00e1du.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci p\u0159edali nespo\u010det d\u011bl a gran\u00e1t\u016f sv\u00fdm libanonsk\u00fdm koleg\u016fm.\u00a0Nav\u00edc Hizball\u00e1h vlastn\u00ed mnoho t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch obrn\u011bn\u00fdch vozidel.\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 z nich jsme vid\u011bli b\u011bhem syrsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad tanky T-55, T-72 a T-80.\u00a0Organizace d\u00e1le disponuje r\u016fzn\u00fdmi typy bojov\u00fdch vozidel p\u011bchoty a obrn\u011bn\u00fdch transport\u00e9r\u016f, samohybnou houfnic\u00ed 2S1 Carnation, protiletadlov\u00fdm samohybn\u00fdm zbra\u0148ov\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem Shilka a dal\u0161\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hizball\u00e1h je schopen odp\u00e1lit 3000 raket denn\u011b p\u0159es izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a m\u016f\u017ee zas\u00e1hnout c\u00edle na jakoukoli vzd\u00e1lenost.\u00a0Odborn\u00edci tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee od roku 2021 m\u011bla libanonsk\u00e1 strana asi 2000 bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f (UAV).\u00a0Vzhledem k velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch bojov\u00fdch dron\u016f nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee je to skute\u010dn\u011b pravda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/span><\/h2>\n

Situaci Izraele d\u00e1le komplikuje existence rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b podzemn\u00edch tunel\u016f pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch bojovn\u00edky Hizball\u00e1hu pro pohyb, p\u0159epravu vojensk\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu a skladov\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed.\u00a0IDF pravideln\u011b ni\u010d\u00ed tunely t\u00e1hnouc\u00ed se od ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu po severn\u00ed Izrael, ale i izraelsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da si uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee po\u010det tajn\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch chodeb je ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed a nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 je v\u0161echny zni\u010dit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gadi Eizenkot, 21. n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu IDF, \u010dasto poznamenal, \u017ee tyto tunely umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu prov\u00e1d\u011bt neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 \u00fadery.\u00a0Organizace se v\u0161ak d\u00e1le rozv\u00edj\u00ed;\u00a0\u0161kol\u00ed hackery a st\u00e1le v\u00edce se v\u011bnuje informa\u010dn\u00edm technologi\u00edm.\u00a0P\u0159ed p\u011bti lety jsem mohl\u00a0<\/span>ud\u011blat rozhovor s<\/span><\/a>\u00a0medi\u00e1ln\u00edm d\u016fstojn\u00edkem Hizball\u00e1hu Muhammadem Afifem.\u00a0Tohle mi tenkr\u00e1t \u0159ekl.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSv\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm \u010del\u00edme na v\u0161ech mo\u017en\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, speci\u00e1ln\u00edch jednotek, ideologie a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b internetu.\u00a0V ni\u010dem za na\u0161imi soupe\u0159i nehodl\u00e1me zaost\u00e1vat.\u00a0Hizball\u00e1h bedliv\u011b sleduje ka\u017ed\u00fd krok Izraele.\u00a0Jakoukoli novou technologii, kterou maj\u00ed oni, m\u00e1me tak\u00e9 my.\u00a0Hizball\u00e1h m\u00e1 jednotku, kter\u00e1 se specializuje na elektronick\u00fd boj a hackery.\u00a0Velkou pozornost v\u011bnujeme reklam\u011b, PR a soci\u00e1ln\u00edm s\u00edt\u00edm.\u00a0Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b se ned\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee bychom v tomto byli bezkonkuren\u010dn\u00ed, ale je to perspektivn\u00ed sm\u011br.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na mezi mlad\u00fdmi lidmi, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed pracovat online a v\u011bd\u00ed, jak na to.\u00a0Z na\u0161\u00ed strany jim poskytujeme v\u0161e, co pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ke \u0161kolen\u00ed a pr\u00e1ci.\u00a0Nejsou zapojeni pouze Libanonci \u2013 Hizball\u00e1h podporuje mnoho mlad\u00fdch lid\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Vzhledem ke v\u0161emu v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9mu m\u016f\u017eeme vyvodit n\u011bkolik d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f.\u00a0Pokud Izrael vyhraje v\u00e1lku s Hizball\u00e1hem v pln\u00e9m rozsahu, bude to jist\u011b Pyrrhovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.\u00a0Hizball\u00e1h tak\u00e9 utrp\u00ed nenapraviteln\u00e9 \u0161kody v d\u016fsledku p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho st\u0159etu s Izraelem.\u00a0Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed rozd\u00edl je v\u0161ak v principech obou stran.\u00a0Hizball\u00e1h je organizace, kter\u00e1 byla vytvo\u0159ena (a existuje), aby bojovala a um\u00edrala, jakmile spln\u00ed sv\u00e9 posl\u00e1n\u00ed smrteln\u011b zranit nep\u0159\u00edtele.\u00a0Ot\u00e1zkou je, byl by Izrael p\u0159ipraven ud\u011blat tot\u00e9\u017e?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor: Abbas\u00a0<\/strong> <\/span>Juma<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159, politick\u00fd koment\u00e1tor,\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/em>specialista na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a Afriku<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Co m\u016f\u017ee Hizball\u00e1h p\u0159edv\u00e9st v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b plnohodnotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s Izraelem? 7. \u0159\u00edjna sv\u011bt \u0161okovalo dal\u0161\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37991,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2306,107,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37990"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}