{"id":37558,"date":"2023-10-05T01:01:39","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T23:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=37558"},"modified":"2023-10-04T17:18:37","modified_gmt":"2023-10-04T15:18:37","slug":"jiri-paroubek-probiha-velka-sachova-hra-o-zmenu-financniho-radu-sveta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/10\/05\/jiri-paroubek-probiha-velka-sachova-hra-o-zmenu-financniho-radu-sveta\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Prob\u00edh\u00e1 velk\u00e1 \u201c\u0161achov\u00e1\u201d hra o zm\u011bnu finan\u010dn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du sv\u011bta"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

A jak prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0161achov\u00e1 partie skon\u010d\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd sen si chce splnit ka\u017ed\u00fd Ameri\u010dan i Evropan. Je to pojem, kter\u00fd se p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ve v\u00edru. Ve v\u00edru v to, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tvrd\u011b pracuje, je dost chytr\u00fd, anebo m\u00e1 dobr\u00e9 n\u00e1pady a um\u00ed je dob\u0159e prodat, zbohatne a m\u016f\u017ee se st\u00e1t milion\u00e1\u0159em. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd sen, oproti tomu, je takov\u00fd, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tvrd\u011b pracuje, dok\u00e1\u017ee prosp\u00edvat rozvoji a r\u016fstu st\u00e1tu, a t\u00edm i ka\u017ed\u00e9mu jedinci, kter\u00fd v n\u011bm \u017eije a tedy i sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nau\u010dili jsme se v\u011b\u0159it americk\u00e9mu snu, a pova\u017eujeme ten \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd za pro Evropany nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd. Nau\u010dili jsme se v\u011b\u0159it americk\u00fdm film\u016fm o l\u00e1sce, tak\u00e9 Facebooku i dolaru, stejn\u011b tak, jako v\u011b\u0159\u00edme Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu m\u011bnov\u00e9mu fondu a Sv\u011btov\u00e9 bance. Jen\u017ee p\u0159i\u0161la v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b. A v\u00e1lka v\u017edy v\u011bci ukazuje v prav\u00e9m sv\u011btle, srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 figurky na \u0161achovnici a m\u011bn\u00ed taktiku.<\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond a Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka, \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 USA k ovl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9ho fian\u010dn\u00edho po\u0159\u00e1dku, jsou dv\u011b hlavn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 organizace s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed ve Washingtonu, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1kladem sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu. Spole\u010dn\u011b maj\u00ed udr\u017eovat stabilitu kurzu, a prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u016fj\u010dek podporovat hospod\u00e1\u0159sky slab\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty. Sv\u011bt obchoduje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v dolarech. To bude fungovat do t\u00e9 doby, kdy USA bude m\u00edt sv\u011btu co nab\u00eddnout, a\u0165 u\u017e finan\u010dn\u011b nebo ideov\u011b. P\u0159ed ukrajinsk\u00fdm konfliktem, resp. p\u0159ed zaveden\u00edm sankc\u00ed na Rusko, se drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina (cca 90%) mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodu a transakc\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bla v dolarech. V\u011bci se ale pon\u011bkud zm\u011bnily. Pokud v\u00fdvoj bude pokra\u010dovat sou\u010dasn\u00fdm tempem, tak to v roce 2025 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e polovina.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak i devizov\u00e9 rezervy st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159ed ukrajinskou v\u00e1lkou byly vedeny z velk\u00e9 \u010dasti v dolarech (cca 60%), z men\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti v eurech (cca 25%) a teprve pak v dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Na Rusko uvalen\u00e9 sankce tak paradoxn\u011b pom\u00e1haj\u00ed vzniknout nov\u00e9mu, zdrav\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu finan\u010dn\u00edmu \u0159\u00e1du, kter\u00fd ale p\u0159irozen\u011b mus\u00ed ten sou\u010dasn\u011b panuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d v „\u0161achov\u00e9 h\u0159e“ porazit. Skupiny \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f BRICS+, \u0160OS, ASEAN (atd.) se sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu, pro n\u011b nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9mu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s nekontrolovateln\u011b ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdmi dolary bou\u0159\u00ed. Zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodu v n\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se tak\u00e9 pokou\u0161ej\u00ed vytvo\u0159it novou rezervn\u00ed m\u011bnu, kter\u00e1 by odpov\u00eddala hodnot\u011b bohatstv\u00ed st\u00e1tu. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d, ve kter\u00e9m m\u00e1 m\u011bna st\u00e1tu b\u00fdt podlo\u017eena odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnotou, bohatstv\u00edm st\u00e1tu, zlatem, anebo jinou hmatatelnou hodnotou.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1 se tak o pom\u011brn\u011b jednoduchou „\u0161achovou hru“ s pevn\u011b dan\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi pravidly. Tah, kter\u00fd te\u010f m\u016f\u017ee Washington ud\u011blat, je pokusit se BRICS rozd\u011blit.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Zem\u011b BRICS se na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b \u0161achovnice sna\u017e\u00ed odst\u0159ihnout od dolaru. Pokud by se jim to poda\u0159ilo, polovina dolar\u016f mimo vnit\u0159n\u00ed trh USA – nazv\u011bme to t\u0159eba „mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm dolarem“, kter\u00fd by nebyl kryt\u00fd ni\u010d\u00edm – nebude pot\u0159eba. Vtipn\u00e9 je, \u017ee dolar\u016f mimo USA je\u00a0mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e\u00a0toho\u00a0„vnit\u0159n\u00edho\u00a0dolaru“ pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9ho k transakc\u00edm uvnit\u0159 USA. Rozd\u011blen\u00ed dolaru na vnit\u0159n\u00ed a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd do budoucna zabr\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00fdm nepokoj\u016fm. Aby USA udr\u017eely d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost dolaru, mohou ho do budoucna kr\u00fdt zlatem. Nikdo ale bohu\u017eel neum\u00ed \u0159\u00edct, kolik dolar\u016f ve sv\u011bt\u011b v\u016fbec koluje, proto\u017ee USA mno\u017estv\u00ed vyti\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch dolar\u016f u\u017e d\u00e1vno p\u0159estaly zve\u0159ej\u0148ovat. U\u017eivatel\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho dolaru, ti kte\u0159\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkazy americk\u00e9ho \u201d\u0161achov\u00e9ho kr\u00e1le\u201d, tedy mohou o\u010dek\u00e1vat dal\u0161\u00ed vysokou inflaci.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed krok, kter\u00fd Washington m\u016f\u017ee ud\u011blat, je ob\u011btovat\u00a0euro, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by pos\u00edlil dolar, a t\u00edm si koupit p\u00e1r let nav\u00edc. Na rozd\u00edl od dolaru, euro nem\u016f\u017ee zav\u00e9st n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnu, proto\u017ee jednodu\u0161e nen\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnou. A za eurem tak nestoj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zlat\u00e9 rezervy.\u00a0Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka bude muset sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00faroky, aby zadlu\u017een\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Evropy nezkrachovaly, co\u017e op\u011bt z\u00e1sadn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed inflaci.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 dolarov\u00e9 rezervy ve\u00a0form\u011b US dluhopis\u016f, o kter\u00e9 by\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u00e1du dolaru neradi p\u0159i\u0161li.\u00a0Pokud st\u00e1ty BRICS zavedou zlatem podlo\u017een\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny, cena zlata v\u00fdrazn\u011b\u00a0vzroste, a to pokryje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty z US dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tak jako tak, a\u017e bude po v\u0161em, USA si d\u00edky tomu budou moci udr\u017eet svou ekonomickou pozici. Pozici sv\u011btov\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed velmoci u\u017e ale nadobro ztrat\u00ed.<\/p>\n

U\u017e p\u0159ed finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed v roce 2008 bylo n\u011bkter\u00fdm ekonom\u016fm z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m nen\u00ed\u00a0\u017eivotaschopn\u00fd, a nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt. B\u011bhem pandemie covidu se o zm\u011bn\u011b finan\u010dn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du za\u010dalo pomalu mluvit. Dnes jsme p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdmi sv\u011bdky prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bny sv\u011btov\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du. Partie je u\u017e rozehran\u00e1. A\u017e tato hra skon\u010d\u00ed, p\u0159ijde mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f a ob\u010dan\u016f o velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz.<\/p>\n

Pokud se nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed, bude \u010cesko jedn\u00edm z t\u011bchto st\u00e1t\u016f. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proto, \u017ee jeho politici nyn\u00ed slep\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed pokyny, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed z Washingtonu. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, se na\u0161e zem\u011b stala p\u011b\u0161\u00e1kem pro pomysln\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho „\u0161achov\u00e9ho kr\u00e1le“, a preferuje ciz\u00ed ideologick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy p\u0159ed sv\u00fdmi vlastn\u00edmi.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd by tedy m\u011bl b\u00fdt postup \u010desk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu?<\/p>\n

\u010cesko by m\u011blo b\u00fdt odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, a\u010d se to m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t b\u00fdt sebe v\u00edc romanticky \u0159e\u010den\u00e9. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed je dnes odvaha se otev\u0159en\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159it, a odvaha st\u00e1t si za sv\u00fdmi n\u00e1zory. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u011btikoalice nem\u00e1 odvahu se politicky vyjad\u0159ovat, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proto, \u017ee by t\u00edm odhalila, jak moc je ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b nejednotn\u00e1, a t\u00edm by se sama zni\u010dila. P\u0159i tak velk\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed „\u0161achov\u00e9 h\u0159e“, u\u017e dnes ale nesta\u010d\u00ed mluvit skryt\u011b, a v n\u00e1znac\u00edch.\u00a0Je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed naj\u00edt odvahu, p\u0159ekonat obavy, a \u0159\u00edct co je pot\u0159eba d\u011blat.<\/p>\n

Je pot\u0159eba ud\u011blat zm\u011bny ve vnit\u0159n\u00ed politice. Vnit\u0159n\u00ed politika je dnes u n\u00e1s paradoxn\u011b odrazem, deriv\u00e1tem zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky st\u00e1tu. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika by m\u011bla m\u00edt samostatnou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku. Nemus\u00ed slep\u011b n\u00e1sledovat sankce proti Rusku \u010di v budoucnu proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Stejn\u011b tak, jako nemus\u00ed bez kritick\u00e9ho hodnocen\u00ed podporovat zkorumpovan\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd re\u017eim, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e zn\u00e1me analogick\u00e9 situace z Vietnamu a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A jak prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0161achov\u00e1 partie skon\u010d\u00ed? Americk\u00fd sen si chce splnit ka\u017ed\u00fd Ameri\u010dan i Evropan….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1324,45,29,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37558"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37558"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37558\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37559,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37558\/revisions\/37559"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}