{"id":37231,"date":"2023-09-30T01:04:21","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T23:04:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=37231"},"modified":"2023-09-29T08:32:35","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T06:32:35","slug":"casovana-bomba-vysoky-statni-dluh-a-rostouci-urokove-sazby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/09\/30\/casovana-bomba-vysoky-statni-dluh-a-rostouci-urokove-sazby\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010casovan\u00e1 bomba: vysok\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh a rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo p\u0159edpov\u00eddal recesi v USA a s n\u00ed spojen\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu, m\u00e1 pot\u00ed\u017ee.\u00a0Alespo\u0148 to tak vypad\u00e1.\u00a0Hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt USA vzrostl ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 o 2,1 procenta po 2,0 procenta v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti byla pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1 na 3,8 procenta v srpnu 2023 a index S&P 500 byl asi o 10 procent ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e index 4 460 bod\u016f. rekord 4 818 bod\u016f v lednu 2022. P\u0159esto existuje mnoho prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 d\u00e1vaj\u00ed prorok\u016fm zk\u00e1zy bod.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e1 inflace sn\u00ed\u017eila re\u00e1ln\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy ob\u010dan\u016f a firem a t\u00edm i jejich popt\u00e1vku po zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eb\u00e1ch.\u00a0R\u016fst v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f, kter\u00fd za\u010dal zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zpomal\u00ed (p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm) spot\u0159ebu a investice a povede k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f.\u00a0V\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka v USA je nav\u00edc vysoce p\u0159evr\u00e1cen\u00e1, co\u017e ukazuje na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se recesi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nelze zapomenout na tlak na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cen aktiv, zejm\u00e9na cen nemovitost\u00ed, ze strany rostouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.\u00a0To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tlak na banky a \u010din\u00ed je opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159i p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch rizik.\u00a0Nab\u00eddka \u00fav\u011br\u016f pro spot\u0159ebitele a podniky vysych\u00e1 a zdra\u017euje ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s levn\u00fdmi a hojn\u00fdmi \u00fav\u011bry v posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed.\u00a0Se zpomaluj\u00edc\u00edm r\u016fstem bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f se zpomaluje i r\u016fst pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby v ekonomice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaje za USA ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee r\u016fst bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zpomalil \u2013 v srpnu meziro\u010dn\u011b o 0,5 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 10,1 % v srpnu 2012. To zase ovliv\u0148uje pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1sobu M2, kter\u00e1 v \u010dervenci klesla o 3,7 % oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu roku.\u00a0(Krom\u011b poklesu bankovn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f sehr\u00e1ly roli i dal\u0161\u00ed faktory, nap\u0159. \u00farokovou sazbou \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd p\u0159esun od bankovn\u00edch vklad\u016f zahrnut\u00fdch do M2 k vklad\u016fm nezahrnut\u00fdm v M2, co\u017e p\u0159isp\u011blo k poklesu pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby americk\u00fdch komer\u010dn\u00edch banky).<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e je to v\u0161e nepochybn\u011b pravda, je v t\u00e9to souvislosti t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v \u00favahu i \u201efaktor \u010dasu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dky a kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady vy\u017eaduj\u00ed \u010das, aby ovlivnily celkovou ekonomiku.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti se ekonomick\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed dopad vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f projev\u00ed a\u017e postupem \u010dasu, tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc po mal\u00fdch kroc\u00edch.\u00a0Dlu\u017en\u00edci maj\u00ed obvykle profil splatnosti sv\u00fdch dluh\u016f.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ne v\u0161echny dluhy jsou splatn\u00e9 ve stejnou dobu, ale \u017ee term\u00edny splatnosti jsou rozlo\u017eeny do let.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad pouze \u010d\u00e1st \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho portfolia spole\u010dnosti bude muset b\u00fdt v roce 2023 refinancov\u00e1na za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Postupem \u010dasu se v\u0161ak n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dky zvy\u0161uj\u00ed, proto\u017ee st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st nesplacen\u00e9ho dluhu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt refinancov\u00e1na za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.\u00a0Tady za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my \u2013 a st\u00e1v\u00e1 se to matouc\u00ed.\u00a0Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady sni\u017euj\u00ed zisky spole\u010dnost\u00ed, zat\u00edmco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby tlum\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po jejich zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eb\u00e1ch.\u00a0To jsou typick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, za kter\u00fdch ekonomika zpomaluje nebo dokonce kles\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i m\u016f\u017ee vl\u00e1da samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u016fj deficit a pokusit se odvr\u00e1tit recesi stimulac\u00ed agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.\u00a0To je v\u0161ak riskantn\u00ed n\u00e1vrh, kdy\u017e je vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh ji\u017e velmi vysok\u00fd a v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady jsou vysok\u00e9.\u00a0Investo\u0159i by mohli snadno zpochybnit \u00fa\u010dinnost programu deficitn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f a ob\u00e1vat se o bonitu vl\u00e1dy, co\u017e by mohlo m\u00edt katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee zk\u00e1zy, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddali recesi a krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu, byli p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00ed, mohlo b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee \u201ev\u0161e nen\u00ed v po\u0159\u00e1dku\u201c.\u00a0Snad nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou v t\u00e9to souvislosti je ot\u00e1zka \u00farovn\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb za posledn\u00ed rok a p\u016fl ji\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovlivnil mnoho trh\u016f aktiv \u2013 sta\u010d\u00ed si vzpomenout na sektor nemovitost\u00ed.\u00a0F\u00e1ze p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed aktiv je\u0161t\u011b nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt dokon\u010dena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimo jin\u00e9 se ceny akci\u00ed v USA pom\u011brn\u011b odd\u011blily od cen dluhopis\u016f.\u00a0To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ceny akci\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed bu\u010f ke korekci sm\u011brem dol\u016f \u2013 za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ceny dluhopis\u016f z\u016fstanou na sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch nebo budou d\u00e1le klesat \u2013 nebo \u017ee ceny dluhopis\u016f se koriguj\u00ed sm\u011brem nahoru, aby podpo\u0159ily vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny akci\u00ed, nebo n\u011bjakou kombinaci obou, ve kter\u00e9 jsou ceny akci\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9 m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi cenami dluhopis\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zky bezesporu jsou: Z\u016fstanou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vysok\u00e9, nebo budou d\u00e1le r\u016fst?\u00a0Nebo se \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vr\u00e1t\u00ed k klesaj\u00edc\u00edmu trendu, na kter\u00e9m byly od po\u010d\u00e1tku 80. let, a\u017e do roku 2022?\u00a0Odpov\u011bd\u011bt na tyto ot\u00e1zky se rovn\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u011b \u201evelk\u00e9mu rozhodnut\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0Pro predikci vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v budoucnu je nepochybn\u011b nutn\u00e9 vz\u00edt v \u00favahu \u0159adu \u00favah.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude odpov\u011b\u010f na tyto ot\u00e1zky s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed v souladu s argumenty pro vlastnictv\u00ed fyzick\u00e9ho zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra.\u00a0Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby toti\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povedou k pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e9 \u201e\u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti\u201c, zat\u00edmco dal\u0161\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy by signalizovaly (o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd) n\u00e1vrat k infla\u010dn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice \u2013 pokus o pos\u00edlen\u00ed cen aktiv, devalvaci m\u011bny a p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed recese, a\u0165 je jak\u00e1koliv. bere.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedno je v\u0161ak jist\u00e9.\u00a0Bou\u0159e, kter\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b nevzty\u010dila svou o\u0161klivou hlavu, p\u0159ijde v podob\u011b recese, vysok\u00e9 nezam\u011bstnanosti a \u2013 pokud centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky op\u011bt sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a d\u00e1le roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1sobu \u2013 chronicky vysok\u00e9 inflace cen zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Autor: Dr. Thorsten Polleit<\/strong> je hlavn\u00edm ekonomem spole\u010dnosti Degussa a \u010destn\u00fdm profesorem na univerzit\u011b v Bayreuthu.\u00a0P\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 jako investi\u010dn\u00ed poradce.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo p\u0159edpov\u00eddal recesi v USA a s n\u00ed spojen\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1324,59,683,371,2831,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}