{"id":37216,"date":"2023-09-29T05:05:53","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T03:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=37216"},"modified":"2023-09-29T05:05:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T03:05:53","slug":"andrew-korybko-polsko-si-vybralo-spravny-cas-k-dokonceni-vysetrovani-incidentu-v-przewodow-z-lonskeho-listopadu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/09\/29\/andrew-korybko-polsko-si-vybralo-spravny-cas-k-dokonceni-vysetrovani-incidentu-v-przewodow-z-lonskeho-listopadu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Polsko si vybralo spr\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010das k dokon\u010den\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed incidentu v Przewodow z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho listopadu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V posledn\u00edch deseti dnech Kyjev \u017ealoval Polsko u WTO, Zelenskij nazna\u010dil, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed soused jeho zem\u011b pln\u00ed nab\u00eddku Ruska, Var\u0161ava se sna\u017eila vydat ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u201ehrdinu\u201c z Kanady za podez\u0159en\u00ed z v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010din\u016f a Polsko dosp\u011blo k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Kyjev byl zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za lo\u0148sk\u00fd listopadadov\u00fd incident, kter\u00fd zabil dva Pol\u00e1ky. Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee kumulativn\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm toho v\u0161eho je, \u017ee vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi Pol\u00e1ky se t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi volbami 15. \u0159\u00edjna pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rzeczpospolita\u00a0<\/span><\/a>za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee pol\u0161t\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ovatel\u00e9 dosp\u011bli k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee za lo\u0148sk\u00fd listopadov\u00fd incident v Przewodow, kter\u00fd zabil dva Pol\u00e1ky, z \u010deho\u017e Kyjev tehdy fale\u0161n\u011b obvinil Rusko, byla zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 sv\u00e9hlav\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 raketa protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany S-300.\u00a0Na velmi kr\u00e1tkou chv\u00edli existovala\u00a0<\/span>re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mo\u017enost vypuknut\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ale na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed pol\u0161t\u00ed a ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed tohoto re\u017eimu rychle zavrhli.\u00a0Zelenskyj st\u00e1le trval na tom, \u017ee Kreml za\u00fato\u010dil na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO, ale nyn\u00ed Polsko v\u00ed, \u017ee to byl Kyjev.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto odhalen\u00ed nebylo n\u00e1hodn\u00e9, proto\u017ee n\u00e1sleduje po zhor\u0161en\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>polsko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>–\u00a0<\/span>ukrajinsk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>vztah\u016f\u00a0<\/a>od poloviny z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0Var\u0161ava\u00a0jednostrann\u011b zachovala z\u00e1kaz\u00a0<\/a>dovozu ukrajinsk\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f po vypr\u0161en\u00ed do\u010dasn\u00e9 dohody Evropsk\u00e9 komise ze za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho jara, co\u017e Zelensk\u00e9ho vyprovokovalo k tomu, \u017ee\u00a0b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho projevu na Valn\u00e9m shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN navrhl\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Polsko pln\u00ed nab\u00eddku Ruska.\u00a0Polsko pot\u00e9 ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee nepo\u0161le modern\u00ed zbran\u011b na Ukrajinu a jeho p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9\u00a0tento re\u017eim tak\u00e9\u00a0odsoudili .<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli tak\u00e9 znovu potvrdili svou podporu \u00faloze Kyjeva ve veden\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky NATO proti Rusku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, iluzorn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bra, kter\u00e1 dosud charakterizovala jejich bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy za posledn\u00edch 19 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, byla nesporn\u011b naru\u0161ena.\u00a0Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u00edmto rychl\u00fdm sledem ud\u00e1lost\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl na za\u010d\u00e1tku srpna Zelensk\u00e9ho poradce Michail Podoljak\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee se vztahy t\u011bchto dvou zem\u00ed po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu vr\u00e1t\u00ed ke sv\u00e9 historicky konkuren\u010dn\u00ed povaze. Netu\u0161il, \u017ee se do toho bodu vr\u00e1t\u00ed o pouh\u00fdch \u0161est t\u00fddn\u016f pozd\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v pat\u00e1ch dal\u0161\u00edho souvisej\u00edc\u00edho skand\u00e1lu v jejich vztaz\u00edch pot\u00e9, co Zelenskij nad\u0161en\u011b povzbuzoval ukrajinsk\u00e9ho nacistu, kter\u00fd byl minul\u00fd p\u00e1tek v kanadsk\u00e9m parlamentu ocen\u011bn jako \u201ehrdina\u201c.\u00a0Brzy se zjistilo, \u017ee se dobrovoln\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00e1sil do divize, kter\u00e1 genocidovala Pol\u00e1ky, co\u017e p\u0159im\u011blo polsk\u00e9ho ministra \u0161kolstv\u00ed, aby\u00a0<\/span>usiloval o vyd\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho zlo\u010dince\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0Vzhledem k sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu stavu polsko-ukrajinsk\u00fdch vztah\u016f p\u0159edstavuje tento krok dal\u0161\u00ed zhor\u0161en\u00ed jejich vazeb.<\/span><\/p>\n

V uplynul\u00fdch deseti dnech tak Kyjev \u017ealoval Polsko u WTO, Zelenskij nazna\u010dil, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed soused jeho zem\u011b pln\u00ed nab\u00eddku Ruska, Var\u0161ava se sna\u017eila vydat ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u201ehrdinu\u201c z Kanady za podez\u0159en\u00ed z v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010din\u016f a Polsko dosp\u011blo k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Kyjev byl odpov\u011bdn\u00fd za posledn\u00ed listopadov\u00fd incident, kter\u00fd zabil dva Pol\u00e1ky. Sta\u010d\u00ed \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee kumulativn\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm toho v\u0161eho je, \u017ee vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi Pol\u00e1ky se t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi volbami 15. \u0159\u00edjna pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

O t\u011bch se vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strana \u201ePr\u00e1vo a spravedlnost\u201c (PiS) sna\u017e\u00ed odrazit siln\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy opozi\u010dn\u00ed \u201eOb\u010dansk\u00e9 platformy\u201c (PO) a anti\u00a0<\/span>-establishmentov\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a>strany Konfederace\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Rozhodla se proto u\u010dinit\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem sv\u00e9 platformy pro znovuzvolen\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 kontext k tomu, pro\u010d se Polsko nakonec postavilo Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 pozn\u00e1mky\u00a0<\/a>ministra obrany Mariusze Blaszczaka\u00a0ke sporu o obil\u00ed lze odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem interpretovat tak, \u017ee do t\u00e9to zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 problematiky vkl\u00e1daj\u00ed relevantn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rozm\u011br.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159\u00edstup slou\u017e\u00ed volebn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm PiS v\u016f\u010di t\u011bmto dv\u011bma d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm stran\u00e1m, proto\u017ee je zam\u011b\u0159en na op\u011btovn\u00e9 potvrzen\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159edstavitele v reakci na obvin\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>PO z pokrytectv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>spolu se snahou z\u00edskat na svou stranu n\u011bkter\u00e9 protiukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznivce Konfederace.\u00a0Kone\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem je udr\u017eet n\u00e1skok p\u0159ed PO a omezit vzestup Konfederace, aby tato m\u011bla men\u0161\u00ed vliv na PiS ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, \u017ee se tito dva po nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch pr\u016fzkumech dohodnou na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed koali\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto volebn\u00ed motivace a souvisej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj vytvo\u0159ily pozad\u00ed pro spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 pochopen\u00ed na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed polsk\u00e9ho prozrazen\u00ed, \u017ee Kyjev je zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za incident z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho listopadu, kter\u00fd zabil dva Pol\u00e1ky.\u00a0Tento posledn\u00ed krok m\u00e1 maxim\u00e1ln\u011b rozdm\u00fdchat lidovou nelibost v\u016f\u010di ukrajinsk\u00e9mu re\u017eimu, i kdy\u017e, co\u017e je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, ne ukrajinsk\u00e9mu lidu, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 pomoci PiS vyhr\u00e1t znovuzvolen\u00ed co nej\u0161ir\u0161\u00edm mo\u017en\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strana v\u00ed, \u017ee se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uk\u00e1\u017ee jako nemo\u017en\u00e9 pln\u011b potla\u010dit tento nacionalistick\u00fd sentiment, a proto existuj\u00ed d\u016fvody k podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee za jeho nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u011bstov\u00e1n\u00edm mohou b\u00fdt postrann\u00ed motivy.\u00a0Klidn\u011b by se mohlo st\u00e1t, \u017ee po volb\u00e1ch budou cht\u00edt podporu ve\u0159ejnosti, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee vyhraj\u00ed a bez ohledu na to, zda budou muset vytvo\u0159it koali\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1du s Konfederac\u00ed, pro dosa\u017een\u00ed nejlep\u0161\u00edch mo\u017en\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch a investi\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednek s Ukrajinou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem by o to mohli usilovat nam\u00edsto restituce ze strany zkrachoval\u00e9 Ukrajiny za jej\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 zabit\u00ed t\u011bchto dvou Pol\u00e1k\u016f loni v listopadu, jinak by PiS mohla hrozit eskalac\u00ed jejich prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Polsk\u00fd trumf spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee kontroluje p\u0159\u00edstup t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech t\u0159et\u00edch stran do t\u00e9to zem\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00fdch silni\u010dn\u00edch a \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edch tras, kter\u00fdm se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd jin\u00fd st\u00e1t EU nem\u016f\u017ee rovnat, pokud jde o kvalitu nebo kvantitu, co\u017e vede ke sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee br\u00e1nit jejich obchodu a investic\u00edm. vztahy s Ukrajinou, dokud nebude tento spor vy\u0159e\u0161en.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by se t\u00fdkalo p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm N\u011bmecka, kter\u00e9 hraje velkou mocenskou hru na Ukrajin\u011b na \u00fakor Polska, jak bylo d\u0159\u00edve vysv\u011btleno v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0S touto nov\u011b objevenou geostrategickou v\u00fdzvou by Polsko mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b podpo\u0159it tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, aby udr\u017eelo N\u011bmecko pod kontrolou a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si zajistilo svou <\/span>p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou \u201esf\u00e9ru vlivu\u201c na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b prok\u00e1zan\u00e1 role Kyjeva v incidentu v Przewodow poskytuje perfektn\u00ed z\u00e1minku pro dosa\u017een\u00ed t\u011bchto dvou c\u00edl\u016f. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se PiS z jak\u00e9hokoli d\u016fvodu vyvaruje vyu\u017eit\u00ed t\u00e9to p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, mo\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli americk\u00e9mu tlaku v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by se Washington za\u010dal ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee se polsko-ukrajinsk\u00fd spor vymkne kontrole, pak tato strana pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1 n\u011bjak\u00e9 politick\u00e9 body sv\u00fdm posledn\u00edm odhalen\u00edm.\u00a0Faktem je, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00ed Pol\u00e1ci nyn\u00ed v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee Zelensk\u00e9ho re\u017eim m\u00e1 na rukou krev jejich dvou krajan\u016f navzdory jeho pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by mu odpustili, \u017ee se to sna\u017eil zakr\u00fdt.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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V posledn\u00edch deseti dnech Kyjev \u017ealoval Polsko u WTO, Zelenskij nazna\u010dil, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed soused jeho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,31,26,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37216"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}