{"id":36945,"date":"2023-09-26T01:05:17","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T23:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=36945"},"modified":"2023-09-25T18:25:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T16:25:53","slug":"nova-era-zlata-odhadovane-oficialni-svetove-zasoby-zlata-dosahuji-rekordni-urovne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/09\/26\/nova-era-zlata-odhadovane-oficialni-svetove-zasoby-zlata-dosahuji-rekordni-urovne\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eNov\u00e1 \u00e9ra zlata\u201c: Odhadovan\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zlata dosahuj\u00ed rekordn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span>M\u016fj odhad glob\u00e1ln\u00edch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch zlat\u00fdch rezerv dos\u00e1hnou ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 38 764 tun, \u010d\u00edm\u017e p\u0159ekon\u00e1m p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rekord z roku 1965. Nov\u00e9 maximum potvrzuje, \u017ee sv\u011bt vstoupil do nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry zlata.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky budou nad\u00e1le hromadit zlato a role kovu v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm m\u011bnov\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu poroste na \u00fakor americk\u00e9ho dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Analytici \u010dasto pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu (MMF) pro celkovou ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed dr\u017ebu zlata, ani\u017e by vzali v \u00favahu, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o odhad fondu.\u00a0Jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno v m\u00e9m p\u0159edchoz\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku o ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch zlat\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch \u010c\u00edny, ne v\u0161echny centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou transparentn\u00ed, pokud jde o jejich dr\u017ebu zlata.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka \u010c\u00edny (PBoC) tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vlastn\u00ed 2 113 tun, zat\u00edmco ve zlat\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu je ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm, \u017ee PBoC vlastn\u00ed mnohem v\u00edce \u2013 podle m\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy kolem 5 000 tun.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad: Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka S\u00fdrie p\u0159estala v roce 2011 vykazovat sv\u00e9 dr\u017eby zlata.\u00a0MMF pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 posledn\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00fd datov\u00fd bod k v\u00fdpo\u010dtu glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sob a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee S\u00fdrie m\u00e1 st\u00e1le 26 tun.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>M\u016fj osobn\u00ed odhad sv\u011btov\u00fdch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch zlat\u00fdch rezerv je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zalo\u017een na zp\u016fsobu, jak\u00fdm MMF sestavuje sv\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed data, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e hlavn\u00edm rozd\u00edlem jsou \u201enehl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy\u201c sledovan\u00e9 zasv\u011bcenci z oboru, kter\u00e9 zahrnuji do sv\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f.\u00a0M\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Z\u00e1kladem jsou posledn\u00ed vyk\u00e1zan\u00e9 objemy v\u0161ech centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a m\u011bnov\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e l\u00e9ta nevykazuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Pro \u010c\u00ednu pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1m sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed \u00fadaje z roku 1995.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed nehl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank jin\u00fdch ne\u017e PBoC, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 rozd\u00edlem mezi odhadovan\u00fdmi celkov\u00fdmi n\u00e1kupy World Gold Council na z\u00e1klad\u011b ter\u00e9nn\u00edch studi\u00ed a hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami v\u0161ech centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank dohromady.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Zahrnuty jsou zn\u00e1m\u00e9 rezervy st\u00e1tn\u00edch investi\u010dn\u00edch fond\u016f*.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>V \u00favahu se bere i zlato vlastn\u011bn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi institucemi, jako je Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka a Z\u00e1padoafrick\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 a m\u011bnov\u00e1 unie.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Swapy v rozvah\u00e1ch tureck\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a banky pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby (BIS) jsou ode\u010dteny.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Podle m\u00e9 metody dos\u00e1hnou sv\u011btov\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby zlata v \u010dervnu 2023 v\u00edce ne\u017e 38 764 tun, co\u017e je zhruba o 400 tun v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed vrchol 38 347 tun v roce 1965.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/chart2_20.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Nov\u00fd rekord odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed touhu centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b odklonit se od americk\u00e9ho dolaru, jeho\u017e rizika protistrany jsou st\u00e1le zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Zlom v dr\u017een\u00ed zlata centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami nastal kr\u00e1tce po velk\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v roce 2008 a od t\u00e9 doby nakoupily v\u00edce ne\u017e 7000 tun.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Hodnota glob\u00e1ln\u00edch zlat\u00fdch rezerv se od t\u00e9 doby zv\u00fd\u0161ila o 66 %, zat\u00edmco devizov\u00e9 rezervy vzrostly o 30 %.\u00a0Pod\u00edl zlata na sv\u011btov\u00fdch m\u011bnov\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch (zlato a devizy) se z historick\u00e9ho minima v roce 2015 op\u011bt zvy\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/chaRT3_1.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Pokud se pod\u00edl zlata na celkov\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch (aktu\u00e1ln\u011b 17 %) je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkdy p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9mu dlouhodob\u00e9mu pr\u016fm\u011bru (58 %), st\u00e1le by byl velk\u00fd prostor pro r\u016fst ceny zlata.\u00a0V p\u0159edchoz\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku jsem spekuloval, \u017ee by cena zlata mohla v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed stoupnout na 8000 dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na pozad\u00ed rostouc\u00edho geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed, siln\u00e9ho dolaru a vysok\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho dluhu (historicky tlumen\u00e9ho inflac\u00ed) budou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti nad\u00e1le nakupovat zlato.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nov\u00fd rekord zlat\u00fdch rezerv je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm symbolick\u00fdm miln\u00edkem.\u00a0Trendy, kter\u00e9 jsem popsal, nov\u00e1 deska nem\u011bn\u00ed, pouze se potvrzuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky dr\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy (pokladnice) jako dolarov\u00e1 aktiva.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco jejich zlat\u00e9 rezervy rostou, jejich nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed dr\u017eba vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f z\u016fstala v posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u00e1.\u00a0Tak\u017ee zat\u00edmco americk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem masivn\u011b roste, pod\u00edl zahrani\u010dn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, kter\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed tento dluh, neust\u00e1le kles\u00e1.\u00a0Tato dynamika by mohla v\u00e9st ke krizi financov\u00e1n\u00ed v USA a d\u00e1le podkopat p\u0159ita\u017elivost dolaru jako rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/chart1_19.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>*Nen\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b zn\u00e1mo, jak MMF vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla, ale m\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee nezahrnuj\u00ed zlato dr\u017een\u00e9 suver\u00e9nn\u00edmi investi\u010dn\u00edmi fondy.\u00a0Moje \u010d\u00edsla zahrnuj\u00ed kolem 100 tun pro tyto fondy.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/new-era-gold-estimated-world-official-gold-holdings-reach-record-high\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stranapro.cz\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-30218 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1375\" height=\"165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-768x93.png 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner.png 849w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1375px) 100vw, 1375px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u016fj odhad glob\u00e1ln\u00edch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch zlat\u00fdch rezerv dos\u00e1hnou ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 38 764 tun,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,276,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36945"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36945"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36946,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36945\/revisions\/36946"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}