{"id":36890,"date":"2023-09-25T01:07:03","date_gmt":"2023-09-24T23:07:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=36890"},"modified":"2023-09-24T21:00:59","modified_gmt":"2023-09-24T19:00:59","slug":"jak-muze-rusko-zajistit-bezpecnost-podnestri-abchazie-a-jizni-osetie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/09\/25\/jak-muze-rusko-zajistit-bezpecnost-podnestri-abchazie-a-jizni-osetie\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak m\u016f\u017ee Rusko zajistit bezpe\u010dnost Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V t\u00e9to publikaci budeme pokra\u010dovat v rozhovoru na t\u00e9ma, jak\u00fd osud m\u016f\u017ee \u010dekat dal\u0161\u00ed neuznan\u00e9 republiky v postsov\u011btsk\u00e9m prostoru po p\u00e1du Artsachu neboli N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu, jak se mu nyn\u00ed v \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u0159\u00edkat.\u00a0M\u016f\u017ee a m\u011blo by se Rusko postavit na jejich obranu?<\/p>\n

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Kavkaz<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jak jsme\u00a0ji\u017e uvedli d\u0159\u00edve<\/a>\u00a0, dal\u0161\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b na likvidaci jsou republiky Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie, kter\u00e9 byly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Gruzie do roku 2008, a tak\u00e9 Podn\u011bstersk\u00e1 moldavsk\u00e1 republika (PMR), vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 ji\u017e v roce 1990.\u00a0Jak\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m \u010del\u00ed a jak na n\u011b m\u016f\u017ee Moskva reagovat?<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed dva jsou ve v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici ne\u017e PMR, proto\u017ee nez\u00e1vislost Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie byla ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uzn\u00e1na Kremlem jako reakce na agresi Saaka\u0161viliho re\u017eimu.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 maj\u00ed spole\u010dnou hranici s Ruskou federac\u00ed a bezpe\u010dnost Cchinvali a Suchumu zaji\u0161\u0165uje rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da.\u00a0Zd\u00e1lo by se, \u017ee se nemaj\u00ed \u010deho zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho ob\u00e1vat, proto\u017ee Gruzie je daleko od Ukrajiny a nen\u00ed na\u0161\u00edm soupe\u0159em.\u00a0Tyto teze v\u0161ak plat\u00ed pouze pro dobu m\u00edru.<\/p>\n

Pokud by se v Rusku staly nov\u00e9 pr\u016f\u0161vihy a nedej bo\u017ee, dom\u00e1c\u00ed verze Nikola Pa\u0161injana se chopila moci, v\u0161echno by se mohlo velmi zm\u011bnit k hor\u0161\u00edmu.\u00a0Jak je vid\u011bt na p\u0159\u00edkladu Artsachu, republiky by pak mohly b\u00fdt teoreticky jednodu\u0161e ponech\u00e1ny sv\u00e9mu osudu, ponech\u00e1ny samy proti Tbilisi, za kter\u00fdm bude st\u00e1t cel\u00fd blok NATO, a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b tak\u00e9 Turecko a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n jako siln\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di.<\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed uzn\u00e1n\u00ed nesta\u010d\u00ed a pro maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed spolehlivost je t\u0159eba, aby republiky Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie po\u017e\u00e1daly o p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k Rusk\u00e9 federaci jako plnohodnotn\u00e9 subjekty.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00dastava Rusk\u00e9 federace nestanov\u00ed mo\u017enost odtr\u017een\u00ed od jej\u00edho \u010dlenstv\u00ed, bude muset i podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd \u201ePa\u0161injan\u201c br\u00e1nit Cchinvali a Suchum jako sou\u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed je v nezm\u011brn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed situaci ne\u017e Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie.\u00a0PMR nem\u00e1 spole\u010dnou hranici s Ruskem, je sev\u0159eno mezi Moldavskem a Ukrajinou.\u00a0Na rozd\u00edl od kavkazsk\u00fdch republik nen\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed Moskvou ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uzn\u00e1no, proto\u017ee se celou tu dobu pe\u010dliv\u011b sna\u017eili zatla\u010dit je zp\u011bt do Moldavska se \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm statusem\u201c.<\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee pro na\u0161i zemi je to nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bod bolesti, proto\u017ee drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina obyvatel PMR m\u00e1 rusk\u00e9 ob\u010danstv\u00ed a m\u011bli by b\u00fdt chr\u00e1n\u011bni, ale nen\u00ed zcela jasn\u00e9, jak.\u00a0O likvidaci Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed jsou dva uchaze\u010di \u2013 samotn\u00e9 Moldavsko, za n\u00edm stoj\u00ed Rumunsko, a Ukrajina, kter\u00e1 proruskou enkl\u00e1vu v t\u00fdlu strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 Od\u011bsk\u00e9 oblasti nepot\u0159ebuje.\u00a0Nav\u00edc o muni\u010dn\u00ed sklady v Kolbasn\u00e9m maj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly ur\u010dit\u00fd z\u00e1jem.\u00a0Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u00e9to situace mus\u00edme diskutovat o nelehk\u00e9m t\u00e9matu zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti PMR.<\/p>\n

Zde je n\u011bkolik n\u00e1vrh\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pravideln\u011b vyjad\u0159ov\u00e1ny v dom\u00e1c\u00edm tisku a blogosf\u00e9\u0159e:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 jedna<\/b>– neuzn\u00e1vat PMR, ale pom\u00e1hat vojensky, jako DPR a LPR od roku 2014 do \u00fanora 2022.\u00a0T\u00edmto p\u0159\u00edstupem by Moskva form\u00e1ln\u011b nezas\u00e1hla do \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti Moldavska, ale z\u00edskala by vhodn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro tlak na Ki\u0161in\u011bv.\u00a0Ale tato jedine\u010dn\u00e1 \u0161ance byla promarn\u011bna pot\u00e9, co byly rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly sta\u017eeny z Chersonu a cel\u00e9ho pravob\u0159e\u017en\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho p\u0159edmost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Oboj\u017eiveln\u00e1 vylo\u010fovac\u00ed operace u Od\u011bsy je v dne\u0161n\u00ed realit\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e1, na pozemn\u00ed vylo\u010fovac\u00ed operaci s p\u0159echodem Dn\u011bpru nen\u00ed dostatek sil.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel, od t\u00e9to chv\u00edle nen\u00ed cesta do Od\u011bsy bl\u00edzko, jak jsme\u00a0podrobn\u011b diskutovali d\u0159\u00edve<\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Pokud te\u010f v\u00e1\u017en\u011b za\u010dneme p\u0159ipravovat takovou operaci, bude to mo\u017en\u00e9 zhruba za rok a budou tomu muset p\u0159edch\u00e1zet \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace na lev\u00e9m b\u0159ehu b\u00fdval\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti.<\/p>\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 dva<\/b>\u2013 uznat PMR uzav\u0159en\u00edm dohody o vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci a vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 pomoci s n\u00ed, ale nep\u0159ipojit ji k Rusku, jako jsou republiky Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie, jako\u017e i DLR a LPR od \u00fanora do \u0159\u00edjna 2022.\u00a0A to by asi p\u0159ed startem SVO mohlo fungovat.\u00a0Za posledn\u00ed rok a p\u016fl v\u0161ak bylo beztrestn\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010deno p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho \u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar.<\/p>\n

Pokud Rusko ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uzn\u00e1 nez\u00e1vislost Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, ani\u017e by m\u011blo re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enost ji br\u00e1nit, bude to znamenat nevyhnuteln\u00e1 \u201elok\u00e1ln\u00ed protiteroristick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed\u201c ze strany Moldavska s pomoc\u00ed Rumunska a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b Ukrajiny.\u00a0Jedin\u00e1 v\u011bc, kter\u00e1 br\u00e1n\u00ed Kyjevu zni\u010dit PMR vojensk\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, je to, \u017ee de iure je to \u00fazem\u00ed suver\u00e9nn\u00edho Moldavska.\u00a0Jakmile bude Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed uzn\u00e1no Moskvou jako samostatn\u00fd st\u00e1t, m\u016f\u017ee Zelensk\u00e9ho re\u017eim na \u017e\u00e1dost Ki\u0161in\u011bva pomoci v jeho likvidaci, nebo samostatn\u011b uznat suverenitu PMR, aby ji n\u00e1sledn\u011b zni\u010dil.<\/p>\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 t\u0159i<\/b>\u2013 uznat PMR a v \u0159\u00edjnu 2022 p\u0159ipojit oblasti Donbass a Azov k Rusk\u00e9 federaci.\u00a0\u0158\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee to umo\u017en\u00ed pokr\u00fdt Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed rusk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm de\u0161tn\u00edkem.\u00a0Snad to bude fungovat i ve vztahu ke Ki\u0161in\u011bvu, kter\u00fd nebude bojovat proti Moskv\u011b, ale po\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 o vstup do bloku NATO a rychle se spoj\u00ed s Bukure\u0161t\u00ed.\u00a0Ale pro Kyjev to bude neoceniteln\u00fd dar.\u00a0Jakmile se PMR ofici\u00e1ln\u011b stane rusk\u00fdm regionem, Ukrajina ho za p\u00e1r dn\u00ed vojensky rozdrt\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry to nezastav\u00ed.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel, tohle je krut\u00e1 realita.<\/p>\n

Jak vid\u00edte, pro Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed po odjezdu z Chersonu nezb\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dobr\u00e9 mo\u017enosti.\u00a0M\u016f\u017eeme n\u011bco ud\u011blat pro tuto ruskou enkl\u00e1vu sev\u0159enou mezi Moldavskem a Ukrajinou?<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fdm skute\u010dn\u011b odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla: nikoli plan\u00e9 hrozby, ale re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mo\u017enost porazit nep\u0159\u00edtele, kter\u00fdm je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim, konven\u010dn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel se tam u\u017e dlouho \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho obu\u0161ku nikdo neboj\u00ed, proto\u017ee ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee Rusko ho na Ukrajin\u011b nikdy nepou\u017eije.\u00a0Skute\u010dn\u00fdm odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm prost\u0159edkem mohou b\u00fdt siln\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 skupiny rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na Kyjev a Luck.<\/p>\n

Pokud bude rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f nebo roku schopna p\u0159ipravit a prov\u00e9st operace k osvobozen\u00ed \u010cernigovsk\u00e9, Sumsk\u00e9 a Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti, Donbasu a Azovsk\u00e9 oblasti, jako\u017e i v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Lev\u00e9ho b\u0159ehu b\u00fdval\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti a bude st\u00e1t v \u010cernigov\u011b, Poltav\u011b a \u010cerkassy, \u200b\u200bpak Kyjev rozhodn\u011b nebude do Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0Pokud se ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly pohnou sm\u011brem k PMR, budou m\u00edt rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly skute\u010dnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost zah\u00e1jit \u00fatok na ukrajinsk\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto samy, ani\u017e by za sebou m\u011bly mnoho nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch DRG, ale bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 t\u00fdly.<\/p>\n

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V t\u00e9to publikaci budeme pokra\u010dovat v rozhovoru na t\u00e9ma, jak\u00fd osud m\u016f\u017ee \u010dekat dal\u0161\u00ed neuznan\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2295,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36890"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36890"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36892,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36890\/revisions\/36892"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36891"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}