{"id":36552,"date":"2023-09-20T01:06:56","date_gmt":"2023-09-19T23:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=36552"},"modified":"2023-09-19T14:13:17","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T12:13:17","slug":"michael-d-swaine-cinska-armada-se-stava-globalni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/09\/20\/michael-d-swaine-cinska-armada-se-stava-globalni\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael D. Swaine: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se st\u00e1v\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The New York Times vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy z \u00fadajn\u00e9ho roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, ale realita je slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b d\u011bsiv\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u010dera The New York Times publikoval p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek Craiga Singletona, \u010dlena Nadace pro obranu demokraci\u00ed, nazvan\u00fd \u201e\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se st\u00e1v\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c. Singleton tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Peking je na dobr\u00e9 cest\u011b vybudovat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 \u201estrategick\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen pod\u00e9l kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch, energetick\u00fdch a surovinov\u00fdch tras\u201c, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enou vojenskou hrozbu pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dadajn\u011b nov\u00e1 pekingsk\u00e1 strategie \u201epod radarem\u201c, kter\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 strukturu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka pro projekty komer\u010dn\u00ed infrastruktury, p\u0159\u00edmo zpochyb\u0148uje schopnost Washingtonu prov\u00e1d\u011bt kritick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 mise v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b obrany Tchaj-wanu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V reakci na tuto rostouc\u00ed hrozbu Singleton vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 Washington, aby vypracoval strategii k \u201epreventivn\u00ed\u201c neutralizaci \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch krok\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b \u201epob\u00eddek nebo sankc\u00ed\u201c pro hostitelsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je s podivem, \u017ee New York Times c\u00edtil pot\u0159ebu takov\u00fd esej zve\u0159ejnit, proto\u017ee je pln\u00fd zkreslen\u00ed, nads\u00e1zky a spekulac\u00ed.\u00a0Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee vojensk\u00e9 aktivity \u010c\u00edny v zahrani\u010d\u00ed si zaslou\u017e\u00ed kontrolu, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed v citliv\u00fdch oblastech.\u00a0Takov\u00e9 zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak vy\u017eaduje pe\u010dlivou anal\u00fdzu skute\u010dn\u00fdch skute\u010dnost\u00ed, jasn\u011b rozli\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed mezi navrhovan\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny, skute\u010dn\u00fdmi podniky, obchodn\u00edmi versus vojensk\u00fdmi (a nevojensk\u00fdmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi) \u00fa\u010dely a pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi v\u00fdhodami pro \u010c\u00ednu plynouc\u00edmi z konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed lokality nebo lokality Operace m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt, je t\u0159eba rozli\u0161ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nam\u00edsto toho, aby se Singleton dr\u017eel t\u011bchto pokyn\u016f, hraje si s d\u016fkazy t\u00edm, \u017ee oslabuje sv\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdmi fr\u00e1zemi jako \u201emohl by\u201c, \u201eby mohl\u201c, \u201em\u011bl by\u201c, \u201enavrhuje\u201c, \u201epravd\u011bpodobn\u011b\u201c atd.\u00a0Nicm\u00e9n\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00e1 mysliteln\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u00e1 nebo nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 komer\u010dn\u00ed, v\u011bdeck\u00e1 nebo bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u201ep\u0159\u00edtomnost\u201c v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed je pops\u00e1na jako sou\u010d\u00e1st promy\u0161len\u00e9, koordinovan\u00e9, vojensky orientovan\u00e9 strategie zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed\u201c ve prosp\u011bch Pekingu, a tedy za ohro\u017eovat USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti \u010c\u00edna z\u0159\u00eddila pouze jedinou vojenskou z\u00e1kladnu v Africk\u00e9m rohu, v D\u017eibuti, a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b z\u0159izuje n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu v Kambod\u017ei.\u00a0Ale existuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 limity toho, jak daleko m\u016f\u017ee \u010c\u00edna zaj\u00edt p\u0159i kop\u00edrov\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00fdch m\u00edst.\u00a0Jak upozornil Isaac Kardon z Carnegie Endowment, \u010c\u00edna nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 form\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 aliance (krom\u011b pochybn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edpadu Severn\u00ed Koreje) a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b do \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho vstoupila, co\u017e v\u00e1\u017en\u011b omezuje jej\u00ed schopnost zakl\u00e1dat v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.\u00a0Jen m\u00e1lo zem\u00ed, pokud v\u016fbec n\u011bjak\u00e9, se chce zav\u00e1zat k hostov\u00e1n\u00ed plnohodnotn\u00fdch, rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohly roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it \u010d\u00ednskou vojenskou moc v cel\u00e9m regionu a vyvolat tak americkou reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho mnoho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 Singleton uv\u00e1d\u00ed jako d\u016fkaz pro sv\u016fj argument, slou\u017e\u00ed jin\u00fdm funkc\u00edm ne\u017e vojensk\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad:\u00a0B. boj proti pir\u00e1tstv\u00ed, udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edru OSN, evakuace nebojuj\u00edc\u00edch osob v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nouze nebo ochrana bl\u00edzk\u00fdch investic.\u00a0A jejich schopnost vyvinout se nad r\u00e1mec t\u011bchto \u00fakol\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstane velmi omezen\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00edc\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f chce p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd obchod a investice.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti mnoho z \u00fadajn\u00fdch nov\u00fdch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen nebo protoz\u00e1kladen citovan\u00fdch Singletonem sest\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z komer\u010dn\u00ed nebo civiln\u00ed v\u011bdeck\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9 maj\u00ed pouze nejasn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l pro vojensk\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0N\u011bkolik existuj\u00edc\u00edch komer\u010dn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed (nap\u0159\u00edklad ve Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech) by mohlo plnit omezen\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 funkce, ale v mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech to z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9.\u00a0N\u011bkdo m\u016f\u017ee nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee takov\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed str\u00e1nky slou\u017e\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9mu strategick\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu, ale jako sou\u010d\u00e1st snah Pekingu st\u00e1t se hlavn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed a v\u011bdecko-technologickou velmoc\u00ed, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo ohro\u017eovat americkou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vojenskou p\u0159evahu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A i kdyby mnoho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch z\u00e1mo\u0159sk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed m\u011blo jasnou vojenskou funkci, nen\u00ed zdaleka jasn\u00e9, \u017ee by ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f poskytly Pekingu ten druh d\u011bsiv\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00ednosu, kter\u00fd Singleton tvrd\u00ed.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici kambod\u017esk\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad tvrdili, \u017ee to CHKO poskytne jen m\u00e1lo nov\u00fdch provozn\u00edch v\u00fdhod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je Singleton\u016fv argument aktualizovanou a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159enou verz\u00ed tzv. \u201e\u0161\u0148\u016fry perel\u201c, kter\u00e1 se objevila p\u0159ed mnoha lety.\u00a0Koncept, vytvo\u0159en\u00fd americkou spole\u010dnost\u00ed, se sna\u017eil spojit n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze z\u00e1mo\u0159sk\u00fdch aktivit \u010c\u00edny v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a pod\u00e9l Indick\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, aby vytvo\u0159il hlavn\u00ed strategick\u00fd krok \u010c\u00edny k vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 nadvl\u00e1d\u011b v regionu.\u00a0Realita stejn\u011b jako u sou\u010dasn\u00e9 verze v\u00fdrazn\u011b zaostala za o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, v\u011bt\u0161inou z podobn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kone\u010dn\u011b je znepokojiv\u00e9, \u017ee Singleton doporu\u010duje, aby Washington pou\u017eil jak pob\u00eddky, tak donucovac\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed k preventivn\u00ed neutralizaci \u00fadajn\u011b hanebn\u00fdch aktivit \u010c\u00edny v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0Aplikovan\u00fd na v\u011bt\u0161inu p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f takov\u00fdch aktivit, kter\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, by se takov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup mohl snadno obr\u00e1tit proti, proto\u017ee c\u00edlov\u00e9 zem\u011b vykl\u00e1daj\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu jako pokus podkopat to, co pova\u017euj\u00ed za legitimn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed a v\u011bdeck\u00e9 transakce s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rostouc\u00ed obchodn\u00ed, v\u011bdeck\u00e1 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost \u010c\u00edny v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed nepochybn\u011b vy\u017eaduje pe\u010dlivou a pe\u010dlivou kontrolu.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel tato esej takovou anal\u00fdzu neposkytuje.\u00a0New York Times sv\u00fdm zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e vyvolal je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed inflaci hrozeb, ne\u017e ji\u017e existuje ve Washingtonu a jinde.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The New York Times vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy z \u00fadajn\u00e9ho roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, ale…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[80,30,2181,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}