{"id":34925,"date":"2023-08-28T01:06:39","date_gmt":"2023-08-27T23:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34925"},"modified":"2023-08-27T17:22:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-27T15:22:17","slug":"zbynek-fiala-sila-brics-plus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/28\/zbynek-fiala-sila-brics-plus\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: S\u00edla BRICS Plus"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159inese v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed koordinace zem\u00ed Jihu a V\u00fdchodu v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zm\u011bny v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed architektu\u0159e? N\u00e1zory se li\u0161\u00ed podle toho, zda jsou p\u0159ej\u00edc\u00ed, nebo nep\u0159ej\u00edc\u00ed. Fakta n\u00e1stup t\u00e9to zm\u011bny sp\u00ed\u0161e potvrzuj\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00e1r dn\u00ed po skon\u010den\u00ed jak summitu BRICS, kter\u00e9 se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm zm\u011bnilo v\u00a0BRICS Plus<\/em>, tak navazuj\u00edc\u00edho summitu\u00a0BRICS Outreach<\/em>\u00a0za \u00fa\u010dasti dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1jemc\u016f o \u010dlenstv\u00ed nebo spolupr\u00e1ci, kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed hlub\u0161\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159e. N\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed a think-tank\u016f Z\u00e1padu ozna\u010duj\u00ed ud\u00e1lost za celkem bezv\u00fdznamnou, pom\u011br sil se nem\u011bn\u00ed. Takhle to shrnulo i \u010desk\u00e9 Echo24 \u2013 Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed BRICS ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad chladn\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/echo24.cz\/a\/HcFST\/zpravy-svet-rozsireni-brics-zapad-nezaskocilo-kazda-zeme-hleda-nejvhodnejsi-partnery<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00fd Spiegel je opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Zam\u011b\u0159uje se na v\u011bci, ve kter\u00fdch jde o hodn\u011b, jako je zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed surovin pro digitalizaci a obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje. Popisuje boj Australan\u016f s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou o kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby lithia v\u00a0Demokratick\u00e9 republice Kongo. Samotn\u00e9 m\u011bste\u010dko Manobno, kter\u00e9 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed nad jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch nalezi\u0161\u0165, je chud\u00e9, a tak to m\u011blo z\u016fstat. Australan\u00e9 maj\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 smlouvy z\u00a0minula, ale povolen\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b v\u00e1zne, proto\u017ee vl\u00e1da v\u00a0Kinshase obrac\u00ed a za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 d\u00e1vat p\u0159ednost \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm. To by znamenalo, \u017ee pom\u011br sil se m\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/world\/a-race-between-the-world-powers-can-the-west-regain-its-lost-footing-in-africa-a-e557e65d-e363-44db-bd90-b19777523fa5<\/a><\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b to vid\u00ed zdroje z\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Afriky, Indie nebo \u010c\u00edny, nemluv\u011b o tisku men\u0161\u00edch z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kde se hodn\u011b mluv\u00ed o nov\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u00edch, postupech, potenci\u00e1lu a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostech. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed najdeme na port\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u011bdy\u00a0Scientific Research Publishing (SCIRP)<\/em>, kde nab\u00edzej\u00ed obs\u00e1hl\u00fd souhrn zpravodajstv\u00ed, anal\u00fdz i v\u00fdzkumu k\u00a0summitu a programu BRICS. S\u00e1m do n\u011bj v\u00a0navazuj\u00edc\u00edm textu s\u00e1hnu.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.scirp.org\/journal\/paperinformation.aspx<\/a><\/p>\n

Ne-z\u00e1padn\u00ed skupina BRICS Plus (po roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed) p\u0159edstavuje 31,5 procenta sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP, zat\u00edmco za skupinou G7, reprezentuj\u00edc\u00ed Z\u00e1pad, je jenom 30 procent HDP. Tuto zm\u011bnu pom\u011bru sil hl\u00e1s\u00ed indick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza\u00a0Megh Updates<\/em>\u00a0spolu s\u00a0progn\u00f3zou, \u017ee rozd\u00edl se bude zv\u011bt\u0161ovat, proto\u017ee r\u016fstov\u00e1 tempa rozvojovek a nov\u00fdch trh\u016f jsou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jinou v\u011bc\u00ed je, \u017ee zastoupen\u00ed t\u011bchto zem\u00ed v\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch instituc\u00edch jako je Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond nebo Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka je mnohem men\u0161\u00ed, st\u00e1ty BRICS tam maj\u00ed jen 15 procent hlasovac\u00edch pr\u00e1v. Proto se mluv\u00ed o pot\u0159eb\u011b zm\u011bny \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00ed architektury\u201c, kter\u00e1 by tyto nerovnosti odstra\u0148ovala. Je tu jist\u011b prostor pro diplomacii, ale nelze spol\u00e9hat na to, \u017ee t\u00e9to zm\u011bny lze dos\u00e1hnout jen p\u0159itvrzov\u00e1n\u00edm rezoluc\u00ed z\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch f\u00f3r. Proto se v\u00edce mluv\u00ed o vlastn\u00edch instituc\u00edch BRICS.<\/p>\n

Vedle roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed skupiny na\u00a0BRICS Plus<\/em>\u00a0(pro kter\u00e9 byla v\u00a0Johannesburgu stanovena pravidla, ale podl\u00e9h\u00e1 nad\u00e1le souhlasu \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f) p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed tak\u00e9 \u010dlenov\u00e9\u00a0Nov\u00e9 rozvojov\u00e9 banky NDB<\/em>, kter\u00e1 je otev\u0159en\u00e1 a je to tedy voln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Te\u010f se p\u0159idali Egypt, Sjednocen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1t a Banglad\u00e9\u0161. Je tak st\u00e1le z\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee NDB chce p\u0159evz\u00edt iniciativu ve vyu\u017eit\u00ed vlivu a bohatstv\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u010dlen\u016f, tedy hlavn\u011b \u010c\u00edny a ropn\u00fdch velmoc\u00ed, pro inkluz\u00edvn\u00ed rozvoj zem\u00ed na opa\u010dn\u00e9m konci \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku bohatstv\u00ed, jako je Argentina nebo pr\u00e1v\u011b nesm\u00edrn\u011b lidnat\u00fd Banglad\u00e9\u0161.<\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1l t\u011bchto zchudl\u00fdch nebo chronicky chud\u00fdch zem\u00ed je posuzov\u00e1n nov\u011b s perspektivou, \u017ee se zbav\u00ed neokoloni\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti a uvoln\u00ed se ze sev\u0159en\u00ed zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nesplatiteln\u00fdch dluh\u016f. Tenhle typ rozvoje by m\u011bla nab\u00edzet Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka, ale tato instituce s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed ve Washingtonu je sp\u00ed\u0161e prodlou\u017eenou rukou americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vid\u00ed sv\u011bt trochu jinak. NDB tak bude objektivn\u011b vytla\u010dovat Sv\u011btovou banku, a zas\u00e1hne do toho mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm kapit\u00e1lem.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to hodn\u011b zjednodu\u0161\u00edme, jde o to, aby zdrojem b\u00eddy klientsk\u00e9 zem\u011b nebylo pr\u00e1v\u011b jej\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na bou\u0159\u00edc\u00ed se Niger, kter\u00fd je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm dodavatelem uranu pro jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny EU, ale zem\u011b sama pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011bm nejchud\u0161\u00edm na sv\u011bt\u011b. Princip odkrven\u00ed zem\u011b s\u00a0velk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi zdroji je jednoduch\u00fd. Jakmile p\u0159istoup\u00ed na voln\u00fd trh a zp\u0159\u00edstupn\u00ed se zahrani\u010dn\u00edm investic\u00edm, p\u0159\u00edliv zahrani\u010dn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed za\u010dne od\u010derp\u00e1vat z devizov\u00fdch rezerv, zat\u00edmco exporty se ocitnou pod kontrolou zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f a devizov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00e9 ekonomiky odplouvaj\u00ed kamsi do d\u00e1li v\u00a0podob\u011b zahrani\u010dn\u00edho zisku.<\/p>\n

Lobbing velk\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu prosazuje deregulaci, sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dan\u00ed a \u00fastup vl\u00e1dy do bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho pozad\u00ed. Ochran\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v\u00a0takto \u201erozv\u00edjen\u00e9\u201c zemi jsou zak\u00e1z\u00e1na. Nap\u011bt\u00ed ve ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00edch se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edm dluhem, ale podm\u00ednkou je voln\u00fd pohyb kapit\u00e1lu. Brzy za\u010dne j\u00edt hlavn\u011b o pohyb sm\u011brem ven. P\u0159id\u00e1 se i dom\u00e1c\u00ed honorace. Jakmile dom\u00e1c\u00ed m\u011bna oslab\u00ed, \u0161pi\u010dka spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e1 na zm\u011bn\u00e1ch vyd\u011blala, za\u010dne ul\u00e9vat \u00faspory do bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho zahrani\u010d\u00ed. T\u00edm tla\u010d\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed hodnoty dom\u00e1c\u00ed m\u011bny. \u00daroky rostou, zdroje vysychaj\u00ed a dluh se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 mimo kontrolu. N\u00e1sleduje dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdprodej n\u00e1rodn\u00edho bohatstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Takhle nemus\u00ed zchudnout jen zem\u011b kr\u00e1tce po startu. Odlivem rezerv do zahrani\u010d\u00ed a soustavn\u00fdm zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm dluhu je pravideln\u011b pokl\u00e1d\u00e1na t\u0159eba Argentina, chronick\u00fd klient Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu. Naposledy se Argentina zachr\u00e1nila srpnov\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem \u010c\u00edny, kter\u00e1 zemi poskytla swapovou linku, umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed spl\u00e1cet dluh MMF p\u0159es j\u00fcany.<\/p>\n

Argentina m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit v\u00a0defaultu. Pom\u016f\u017ee j\u00ed BRICS?, pt\u00e1 se\u00a0Nick Corbishley<\/a>\u00a0na americk\u00e9m levicov\u00e9m webu\u00a0Naked capitalism<\/em>. Pova\u017euje za nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Argentina v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 dob\u011b obdr\u017eela finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoc od multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f BRICS, a to ze dvou d\u016fvod\u016f: zaprv\u00e9, nov\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 BRICS ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vstoup\u00ed do klubu a\u017e 1. ledna 2024, a zadruh\u00e9: dva ze t\u0159\u00ed kandid\u00e1t\u016f v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v Argentin\u011b, kter\u00e9 se uskute\u010dn\u00ed 22. \u0159\u00edjna, Javier Milei a Particia Bullrich, odm\u00edtli rozhodnut\u00ed Fern\u00e1ndezovy vl\u00e1dy vstoupit do BRICS.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed kolo argentinsk\u00fdch voleb asi nep\u0159inese jednozna\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o t\u011bsn\u00fd souboj t\u0159\u00ed kon\u00ed. Av\u0161ak kampa\u0148 Sergia Massy m\u00e1 eso v ruk\u00e1vu: m\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee pokud zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed, jeho vl\u00e1da se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t prvn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjemcem pomoci z BRICS, nejsp\u00ed\u0161e prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \/jeho syst\u00e9mu na vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed platebn\u00edch bilanc\u00ed<\/em>\/ CRA. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Argentina mohla v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit nebo – v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b z\u00e1chrann\u00e9ho \u00fav\u011bru pokr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho celou hodnotu p\u016fj\u010dky MMF – dokonce odstranit svou z\u00e1vislost na MMF, jak se stalo v roce 2006. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Argentina by mohla m\u00edt jinou budoucnost, soud\u00ed Corbishley.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00e1chrana Argentiny by byla pro \u010dleny BRICS relativn\u011b m\u00e1lo rizikov\u00e1. Argentina m\u00e1 sice dlouhou a slavnou historii nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed dluh\u016f, ale m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 dv\u011b nesm\u00edrn\u011b cenn\u00e1 aktiva, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1t do z\u00e1stavy: obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zemn\u00edho plynu v oblasti Vaca Muerta, kter\u00e9 se teprve uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed do provozu, a rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1, dosud nevyu\u017eit\u00e1 lo\u017eiska lithia na severu zem\u011b, o n\u011b\u017e m\u00e1 Peking velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem. Argentina m\u00e1 nav\u00edc pro BRICS z\u00e1sadn\u00ed strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam, nebo\u0165 je druhou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomikou Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, tedy regionu, kter\u00fd ji\u017e nyn\u00ed obchoduje s \u010c\u00ednou v\u00edce ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd a je pr\u00e1v\u011b z tohoto d\u016fvodu v hled\u00e1\u010dku ji\u017en\u00edho velen\u00ed USA.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2023\/08\/now-its-a-full-fledged-brics-member-could-argentina-be-first-country-to-receive-a-brics-bailout.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Vstup Argentiny do BRICS Plus je tedy sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed velk\u00e9 hry. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed za \u00fa\u010dasti NDB m\u016f\u017ee technicky zahrnovat v\u00fdhybku od dolaru v\u00a0podob\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho zapojen\u00ed\u00a0 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny (nov\u011b do 30 procent) nebo v\u00fdhledov\u011b u\u017eit\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011bny BRICS. Vedle toho m\u016f\u017ee vstoupit do hry dal\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj, kter\u00fd vznikl je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed \u00favahami o spole\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b.\u00a0 Je j\u00edm zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd syst\u00e9m vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1h platebn\u00ed bilance\u00a0Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA<\/em>) z\u00a0roku 2015, vracej\u00edc\u00ed se k\u00a0p\u016fvodn\u00edm p\u0159edstav\u00e1m o funkc\u00edch MMF. Jen \u010c\u00edna do n\u011bj vlo\u017eila 100 miliard dolar\u016f a ostatn\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 tak\u00e9 p\u0159isp\u011bli.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.investmentmonitor.ai\/features\/brics-future-alternative-china-brazil-russia-india-southafrica\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Pod\u00edl \u010c\u00edny je ve v\u0161ech t\u011bchto inciativ\u00e1ch rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna se nechce sm\u00ed\u0159it s\u00a0rozpadem globalizace, v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0mo\u017enosti vzniku rovnopr\u00e1vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed varianty. Proto rozjela tak\u00e9\u00a0Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rozvojovou iniciativu (GDI)<\/em>, kter\u00e1 se posouv\u00e1 od ryze infrastrukturn\u00ed politiky\u00a0P\u00e1su a stezky<\/em>. Sni\u017euje pod\u00edl p\u016fj\u010dek na projektech a je v\u00edce orientov\u00e1na na nov\u00e9 technologie a re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Na konferenci\u00a0BRICS Outreach<\/em>\u00a0o tom mluvil \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching:<\/p>\n