{"id":34581,"date":"2023-08-24T00:59:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T22:59:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34581"},"modified":"2023-08-23T14:13:31","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T12:13:31","slug":"joerg-thomas-vysledek-valky-prognoza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/24\/joerg-thomas-vysledek-valky-prognoza\/","title":{"rendered":"Joerg Thomas: V\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky \u2013 progn\u00f3za"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Od jara 2014 zu\u0159\u00ed na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny v\u00e1lka.\u00a0S preventivn\u00edm z\u00e1sahem Ruska s c\u00edlem zabr\u00e1nit ukrajinsk\u00e9 invazi na Donbas 24. \u00fanora 2022 se konflikt dostal do dom\u00e1c\u00edho p\u00e1sma.\u00a0Proto\u017ee to nebylo Rusko, kdo rozpoutal v\u00e1lku.\u00a0Ale Rusko to ukon\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0S ohledem na ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenzivu Ukrajinc\u016f jsou po\u017eadavky na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edce sly\u0161et i na Z\u00e1pad\u011b.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, jak by mohl vypadat budouc\u00ed m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Stoltenberg m\u011bl sv\u00e9, Ukrajina by byla p\u0159ijata do NATO hned po v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politici v\u0161ak zast\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee k urychlen\u00e9mu vstupu Ukrajiny do NATO nedojde.\u00a0Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed i pro vstup do EU.\u00a0Ani zde nebudou pro Ukrajinu platit \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed p\u0159edpisy.\u00a0Vysoc\u00ed politici zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se pov\u00e1le\u010dnou Ukrajinou v\u0161ak ve sv\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho hr\u00e1\u010de a vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho partnera \u2013 Rusko.\u00a0A\u0165 u\u017e si kter\u00fdkoli z\u00e1padn\u00ed politik p\u0159eje pro Ukrajinu jakoukoli budoucnost, je to pov\u011bstn\u00e1 kalkulace bez hostitele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom si mohli troufnout na polovi\u010dn\u00ed realistickou progn\u00f3zu budoucnosti Ukrajiny, je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v \u00favahu z\u00e1jmy jednotliv\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f.\u00a0Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di na z\u00e1padn\u00ed stran\u011b jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b USA a jejich vazalsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Evrop\u011b.\u00a0Jak zn\u00e1mo, v USA se bude koncem roku 2024 volit nov\u00fd prezident.\u00a0V\u00e1lka je ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed.\u00a0Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 prodat oby\u010dejn\u00fdm Ameri\u010dan\u016fm, \u017ee americk\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost je ohro\u017eena.\u00a0V\u00e1lka p\u0159itom spolyk\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 by se daly rozumn\u011bji vyu\u017e\u00edt v dom\u00e1c\u00ed politice.\u00a0USA by tedy m\u011bly m\u00edt z\u00e1jem dostat se z po\u010dtu nejpozd\u011bji do jara 2024, sp\u00ed\u0161e d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0Tak\u00e9 USA pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed voln\u00e9 kapacity, intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed i finan\u010dn\u00ed, aby se mohly soust\u0159edit na sv\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho rivala, \u010c\u00ednu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka v\u017edy po\u0161kod\u00ed ob\u011b strany\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z geopolitick\u00e9ho hlediska dos\u00e1hly USA sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, jak jen to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, c\u00edlem bylo vojensky a ekonomicky oslabit Rusko, mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b izolovat Rusko, sou\u010dasn\u011b ekonomicky oslabit z\u00e1padoevropskou konkurenci a pos\u00edlit vlastn\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee pokusy o vojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed Ruska a jeho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed izolace nep\u0159inesly optim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdsledek, v\u00e1lka m\u011bla za n\u00e1sledek tak\u00e9 mnoho lidsk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t v Rusku a st\u00e1la spoustu pen\u011bz, kter\u00e9 mohly b\u00fdt jist\u011b vynalo\u017eeny l\u00e9pe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vztah mezi z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropou (zejm\u00e9na N\u011bmeckem) a Ruskem je nav\u00edc dlouhodob\u011b zni\u010den.\u00a0USA p\u0159itom t\u011b\u017ece po\u0161kodily z\u00e1padoevropskou ekonomiku sankcemi proti Rusku, kter\u00fdmi se z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 vazalsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty musely \u0159\u00eddit.\u00a0Od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed od levn\u00e9 energie je st\u00e1le v\u00edce n\u011bmeck\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed nuceno zav\u0159\u00edt nebo opustit N\u011bmecko.\u00a0Podle Institutu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky zaznamenalo N\u011bmecko v roce 2022 \u010dist\u00fd odliv kapit\u00e1lu do zahrani\u010d\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 125 miliard EUR.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed odliv kapit\u00e1lu ze v\u0161ech 46 zkouman\u00fdch zem\u00ed a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 historii.\u00a0Spolkov\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad z\u00e1rove\u0148 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00e9 tr\u017eby v sektoru maloobchodu s potravinami nad\u00e1le klesaj\u00ed.\u00a0Ale v\u017edy se mus\u00ed j\u00edst.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prosp\u00edv\u00e1 pouze vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak americk\u00e1 ekonomika vzkv\u00e9t\u00e1.\u00a0Pr\u016fmysl frakov\u00e1n\u00ed ropy a plynu hodn\u011b vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 na z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch koloni\u00ed v Evrop\u011b a americk\u00fd zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 radost ze zak\u00e1zek z Evropy, zejm\u00e9na N\u011bmecka.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee pot\u00e9, co byla v\u011bt\u0161ina c\u00edl\u016f v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b spln\u011bna, star\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed NATO byly na Ukrajin\u011b zlikvidov\u00e1ny a t\u00e1bory jsou nyn\u00ed op\u011bt voln\u00e9, nastal \u010das rozlou\u010dit se s konfliktem.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Druh\u00fdm velk\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem v t\u00e9to \u201eh\u0159e\u201c je Rusko.\u00a0Rusko spr\u00e1vn\u011b vid\u011blo sv\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy ohro\u017een\u00e9 neust\u00e1l\u00fdm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm NATO na v\u00fdchod.\u00a0Rusko nav\u00edc muselo zabr\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00edmu \u00fatoku Ukrajiny na Donbas a Krym a tam \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo, a proto bylo nuceno vojensky zas\u00e1hnout.\u00a0Deklarovan\u00fdmi c\u00edli Ruska je zabr\u00e1nit Ukrajin\u011b ve vstupu do NATO, demilitarizovat Ukrajinu a denacifikovat ji.\u00a0K dosa\u017een\u00ed t\u011bchto c\u00edl\u016f m\u00e1 Rusko pouze dv\u011b mo\u017enosti.\u00a0Bu\u010f v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed faktickou kapitulac\u00ed Ukrajiny (varianta z\u00e1chrany tv\u00e1\u0159e pro Z\u00e1pad), tedy jedn\u00e1n\u00edm,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd konec v\u00e1lky m\u016f\u017ee Rusko akceptovat?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 c\u00edle by mohlo m\u00edt Rusko ve vztahu k Ukrajin\u011b?\u00a0Oblasti d\u0159\u00edve osvobozen\u00e9 Ruskem se v referendu p\u0159ipojily k Rusku a nyn\u00ed jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Ruska a na tom se nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0Mohlo by se ale st\u00e1t, \u017ee obyvatel\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00edch region\u016f (Lwow a Lutz), kte\u0159\u00ed jsou tradi\u010dn\u011b v\u00edce proz\u00e1padn\u00ed, uspo\u0159\u00e1daj\u00ed tak\u00e9 referenda o odd\u011blen\u00ed t\u011bchto region\u016f od Ukrajiny a jejich pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k Polsku.\u00a0Rusko by pak muselo tato referenda uznat bez ohledu na jejich v\u00fdsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjev by se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b musel zav\u00e1zat, \u017ee z\u016fstane neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed a za \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed nebude vstupovat do NATO.\u00a0Nav\u00edc by arm\u00e1da musela b\u00fdt z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rozpu\u0161t\u011bna, v\u0161echny t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zbran\u011b by musely b\u00fdt odevzd\u00e1ny a zni\u010deny a org\u00e1ny \u010dinn\u00e9 v trestn\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by musely st\u00edhat a trestat v\u0161echny zn\u00e1m\u00e9 a p\u0159e\u017eiv\u0161\u00ed nacisty a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zlo\u010dince na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Zelenskij a dal\u0161\u00ed elity pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159eb\u011bhnou do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, Izraele nebo z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy.\u00a0To sam\u00e9 asi plat\u00ed pro v\u0161echny potetovan\u00e9 n\u00e1cky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee se v\u0161ak Rusko ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee spol\u00e9hat na uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ze Z\u00e1padu nebo smlouvy typu Minsk II, lze tyto podm\u00ednky prosadit pouze tehdy, pokud bude na Ukrajin\u011b z\u0159\u00edzena alespo\u0148 jedna, mo\u017en\u00e1 n\u011bkolik, rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da mus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopna kontrolovat ni\u010den\u00ed zbran\u00ed a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby i pr\u00e1ci donucovac\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f.\u00a0Vstup do NATO by tak byl trvale vylou\u010den, stejn\u011b jako vstup do EU.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho by mohla b\u00fdt zaru\u010dena podpora pro Rusy \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed a pro tam um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, pokud by do\u0161lo k pokusu o vstup do NATO.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Co m\u016f\u017ee Rusko po\u017eadovat od Z\u00e1padu?<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho by Rusko mohlo vzn\u00e9st dal\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavky na Z\u00e1pad, jako je n\u00e1vrat k Zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmu aktu NATO-Rusko (co\u017e by m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek sta\u017een\u00ed v\u0161ech voj\u00e1k\u016f NATO z nov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f NATO) nebo sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch a rusk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed z Evropa.\u00a0Ale to by bylo pro Rusko st\u011b\u017e\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0I kdyby v tomto ohledu existovaly smluvn\u00ed dohody, nezaru\u010dilo by to, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad z\u00edtra smlouvy znovu neporu\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ohledn\u011b sankc\u00ed bude Rusko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vat opatrn\u011b.\u00a0Krom\u011b sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di jednotlivc\u016fm a odd\u011blen\u00ed od platebn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu SWIFT by Rusko nem\u011blo b\u00fdt z ostatn\u00edch sankc\u00ed tak ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9.\u00a0Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee sankce p\u016fsob\u00ed nejen jako trest proti sankcionovan\u00e9 zemi, ale tak\u00e9 jako protekcionista pro ekonomiku sankcionovan\u00e9 zem\u011b, je z\u0159ejm\u00e1, kdy\u017e si vzpomeneme na vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed cel prezidentem Trumpem.\u00a0Prezident Trump mimo jin\u00e9 navrhl 20% clo na dovoz n\u011bmeck\u00fdch aut do USA.\u00a0To by znamenalo 20% zdra\u017een\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fdch aut v USA a vedlo by tak k pos\u00edlen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu.\u00a0Tento zp\u016fsob ochrany dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu p\u0159ed levn\u00fdm dovozem se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 protekcionismus.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sankce podpo\u0159ily ruskou ekonomiku\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed sank\u010dn\u00ed re\u017eim tak chr\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fd trh p\u0159ed levn\u00fdm z\u00e1padn\u00edm dovozem a umo\u017e\u0148uje tak m\u00edstn\u00ed ekonomice, aby sama zakl\u00e1dala p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 firmy.\u00a0Nav\u00edc tov\u00e1rny a v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1vody z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 opustily Rusko, nebyly vyvlastn\u011bny, ale velmi levn\u011b zakoupeny.\u00a0Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 n\u00e1vratnost z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed je tedy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e1.\u00a0Rusko v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude trvat na vyplacen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho majetku zmrazen\u00e9ho na Z\u00e1pad\u011b.\u00a0Pro USA by to m\u011bl b\u00fdt jen mal\u00fd probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee z americk\u00e9ho pohledu je t\u011bch cca 300 miliard dolar\u016f pouze ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd pap\u00edr, ale z rusk\u00e9ho jsou to pohled\u00e1vky ve v\u00fd\u0161i 300 miliard v\u016f\u010di v\u0161em st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 akceptuj\u00ed dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, existuje vysok\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee konflikt skon\u010d\u00ed bu\u010f de facto kapitulac\u00ed, nebo skute\u010dnou kapitulac\u00ed.\u00a0Korejsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 (zmrazen\u00fd konflikt) je tak vylou\u010den, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee by probl\u00e9m pro Rusko nevy\u0159e\u0161il, pouze odlo\u017eil do budoucnosti.\u00a0S nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed bude Ukrajina okupovanou zem\u00ed s omezenou suverenitou, trochu jako N\u011bmecko.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed investice na Ukrajin\u011b budou proto v budoucnu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b velmi opatrn\u00e9, zat\u00edmco Rusko se bude sna\u017eit Ukrajin\u011b jako bratrsk\u00e9 zemi pomoci dos\u00e1hnout rusk\u00e9 \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna a Indie nav\u00edc z\u00edskaj\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv, Ukrajina je p\u0159ece velk\u00fdm dodavatelem obil\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Joerg Thomas\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Od jara 2014 zu\u0159\u00ed na v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny v\u00e1lka.\u00a0S preventivn\u00edm z\u00e1sahem Ruska s c\u00edlem zabr\u00e1nit ukrajinsk\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[29,565,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34581"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34581\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}