{"id":34377,"date":"2023-08-20T01:00:55","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T23:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34377"},"modified":"2023-08-19T18:06:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-19T16:06:56","slug":"zbynek-fiala-co-chysta-brics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/20\/zbynek-fiala-co-chysta-brics\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Co chyst\u00e1 BRICS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nejm\u00e9n\u011b 40 hlav st\u00e1t\u016f nebo vl\u00e1d se z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed skupiny BRICS v jihoafrick\u00e9m Johannesburgu, kter\u00e1 se t\u00edm za\u010dne m\u011bnit na z\u00e1sadn\u00ed organizaci Glob\u00e1ln\u00edho jihu s nez\u00e1padn\u00ed nebo i protiz\u00e1padn\u00ed orientac\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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P\u0159ed p\u00e1r lety to byla jen zaj\u00edmavost z\u00a0excentrick\u00fdch koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f, ale sv\u011bt se najednou zm\u011bnil a skupina BRICS za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159ipravovat na z\u00e1sadn\u00ed revizi s\u00edt\u011b mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f, jak byla nastavena po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Na gigantickou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konferenci p\u016fvodn\u011b jen potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed skupiny Braz\u00edlie, Ruska, Indie, \u010c\u00edny a Jihoafrick\u00e9 republiky (se\u0159azen\u00e9 tak, aby zkratka m\u011bla lep\u0161\u00ed zvuk), p\u0159ijede ve dnech od 22. do 24. srpna \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching osobn\u011b, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00fd prezident Vladim\u00edr Putin se objev\u00ed jen virtu\u00e1ln\u011b na obrazovk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Hostitelem je jihoafrick\u00fd prezident Cyril Ramaphosa, kter\u00fd u\u017e zd\u016fraznil bojov\u00fd charakter setk\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee odm\u00edtl p\u0159\u00edtomnost francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Emmanuele Macrona. Jednat budou zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed z\u00a0neokoloni\u00e1ln\u00ed minulosti definitivn\u011b vyb\u0159ednout, nikoliv ji zakonzervovat n\u011bjakou cukrovou polevou.<\/p>\n

Indick\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nar\u00e9ndra M\u00f3d\u00ed a brazilsk\u00fd prezident Lula da Silva tam budou tak\u00e9 a budou trochu brzdit \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 a rusk\u00e9 nad\u0161en\u00ed pro rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed skupiny. Z\u00e1jemc\u016f je pr\u00fd a\u017e 80, ale zat\u00edm se mluvilo hlavn\u011b o \u00cdr\u00e1nu, jeho\u017e prezident Ebr\u00e1h\u00edm Ra\u00eds\u00ed v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dnech jednal v\u00a0Moskv\u011b s\u00a0rusk\u00fdm prezidentem Putinem.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti by do skupiny r\u00e1da vstoupilo v\u00edce zem\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho a St\u0159edn\u00edho v\u00fdchodu, kter\u00e9 byly s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem dlouhodob\u011b znep\u0159\u00e1teleny, jako Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie nebo Sjednocen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty. Je to jeden z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f toho, jak podn\u011bt BRICS m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u011bt \u2013 a pokud by m\u011blo j\u00edt o trval\u00fd pokles nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed, pak k\u00a0lep\u0161\u00edmu.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1jemce o vstup do velk\u00e9 organizace Glob\u00e1ln\u00edho jihu, kter\u00e1 se n\u00e1m tak rod\u00ed p\u0159ed o\u010dima, spojuje hlavn\u011b to, co necht\u011bj\u00ed. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm se hodlaj\u00ed br\u00e1nit nadvl\u00e1d\u011b dolaru a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed pod kontrolou USA. V\u0161ichni zneklidn\u011bli nad t\u00edm, jak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty za\u010daly pod\u0159izovat sv\u011bt a jeho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed sv\u00e9mu vnit\u0159n\u00edmu pr\u00e1vu, kter\u00e9 vymezuje, kdo s\u00a0k\u00fdm a s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm sm\u00ed obchodovat nebo dokonce jak zach\u00e1zet s\u00a0v\u00fdrobky, kter\u00e9 se jen dotkly americk\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ekvapil tak\u00e9 charakter americk\u00fdch a evropsk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku, jejich\u017e sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed je zabaven\u00ed rusk\u00fdch devizov\u00fdch rezerv v\u00a0zahani\u010dn\u00edch (hlavn\u011b tedy americk\u00fdch) bank\u00e1ch. Do americk\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00edzn\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee dostat prakticky kdokoliv, kdo se nyn\u00ed zaj\u00edm\u00e1 o \u010dlenstv\u00ed v\u00a0nov\u00e9m uskupen\u00ed kolem BRICS. Hazardn\u00ed krok USA byl proto p\u0159ijat jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed a podn\u011bt k\u00a0takov\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b finan\u010dn\u00edch tok\u016f, kter\u00e1 by riziko zabaven\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eila nebo zcela odstranila.<\/p>\n

To je t\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011bm \u00favah o \u201ededolarizaci\u201c vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch o\u017ebchodn\u00edch vztah\u016f, nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159echodem na n\u011bjakou spole\u010dnou m\u011bnu BRICS. Ten v\u0161ak zrovna te\u010f nevypad\u00e1 nejnad\u011bjn\u011bji. Rusk\u00fd rubl v\u00a0minul\u00fdch dnech oslabil na polovinu hodnoty, kterou m\u011bl p\u0159ed rokem paradoxn\u011b v\u00a0reakci na evropsk\u00e9 sankce, zp\u016fsobuj\u00edc\u00ed prudk\u00fd r\u016fst ceny ropy. Tenhle extr\u00e9m u\u017e m\u00e1me za sebou, ale ne\u010dekan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv bohatstv\u00ed do Ruska vyvolal chu\u0165 spot\u0159ebitel\u016f nakupovat dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b toho embargovan\u00e9ho, kter\u00e9 do zem\u011b proudilo jinudy. To spolu s\u00a0obrovsk\u00fdmi ve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi v\u00fddaji zp\u016fsobilo tlak na obchodn\u00ed bilanci.<\/p>\n

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Po t\u00fddnu se situace s rublem trochu zklidnila, ale na povrch vyplavaly spory o to, jak reagovat. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka prudce zvedla z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou m\u00edru z\u00a08,5 na 12 procent, ale vyhnula se tr\u017en\u00ed intervenci. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed m\u00edsta odr\u00e1\u017eela kritiku, \u017ee za pokles kurzu rublu mohou p\u0159ehnan\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, kter\u00e9 jsou diktov\u00e1ny pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-08-18\/no-one-in-russia-could-agree-on-how-to-wrest-control-of-the-ruble<\/a><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna zase odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1znaky finan\u010dn\u00ed krize spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0prasknut\u00edm bubliny realitn\u00edho trhu. Ve zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch vysko\u010dily n\u00e1zvy dosud prakticky nezn\u00e1m\u00fdch realitn\u00edch fond\u016f, kter\u00fdm se neda\u0159\u00ed spl\u00e1cet kupony sv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, proto\u017ee b\u011bhem pandemie klesla stavebn\u00ed aktivita a oslabil p\u0159\u00edliv pen\u011bz do oboru. To m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci, kter\u00e1 by za\u010dala pot\u00e1p\u011bt napojen\u00e9 banky. Vl\u00e1da reagovala urychlen\u00edm p\u0159ipravovan\u00fdch reforem na trhu cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka poskytla bank\u00e1m novou hotovost a intervenovala na trhu proti poklesu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 m\u011bny RMB.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o ty reformy, v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o pos\u00edlen\u00ed likvidity, \u010dili aby obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo p\u0159\u00edstupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, snaz\u0161\u00ed a levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To by m\u011blo p\u0159it\u00e1hnout z\u00e1jem investor\u016f o \u010d\u00ednskou m\u011bnu a nahradit tak to, co nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed lepit centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka sv\u00fdmi intervencemi.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/investing\/investors-fear-chinas-lehman-moment-is-looming-4364855d<\/a><\/p>\n

Jak sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9, tak rusk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my nejsp\u00ed\u0161 p\u0159ibrzd\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy spole\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011bny BRICS, ve kter\u00e9 by tyto n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny\u00a0\u0159en-min-pi<\/em>\u00a0(RMB) a rubl nemohly chyb\u011bt, ale na druhou stranu, je to u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1 lekce. Nem\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o m\u011bnu, kter\u00e1 je vhodn\u00e1 jen pro kr\u00e1sn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed. Vytvo\u0159en\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 m\u011bny v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159edb\u011bhnuto v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm n\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u011bn v\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b v bl\u00edzk\u00e9m sousedstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nemus\u00ed to v\u0161ak zabrzdit p\u0159em\u011bnu st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed Nov\u00e9 rozvojov\u00e9 banky NDB, co\u017e je banka BRICS, v jakousi\u00a0n\u00e1hradu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed skupiny Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky. A velk\u00fdm t\u00e9matem bude tak\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed potravinov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Ta je ohro\u017eena v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b a zm\u011bt\u00ed sankc\u00ed, na kter\u00fdch se sice poda\u0159ilo n\u011bkter\u00fdm z\u00e1padn\u00edm obchodn\u00edk\u016fm s\u00a0obil\u00edm a hnojivy poh\u00e1dkov\u011b vyd\u011blat, ale tvrd\u00fd dopad zam\u00ed\u0159il hlavn\u011b do Afriky.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee konference zem\u00ed BRICS a jejich sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9ho klubu se kon\u00e1 zrovna v\u00a0Africe odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zm\u011bnu sebev\u011bdom\u00ed kontinentu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching m\u00e1 vedle BRICS na programu i jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0jihoafrick\u00fdch prezidentem. P\u0159edehru k\u00a0tomu \u010dinil pekingsk\u00fd podpis dvac\u00edtky dohod o n\u00e1kupu jihoafrick\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed za 2,2 miliardy dolar\u016f, p\u00ed\u0161e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd tisk.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3231482\/brics-summit-african-countries-wait-wings-expansion-economic-bloc<\/a><\/p>\n

Si bude v\u00a0Johannesburgu tak\u00e9 p\u0159edsedat \u010c\u00ednsko-africk\u00e9mu dialogu, kde budou zastoupeny zem\u011b jako Al\u017e\u00edrsko, Egypt, Etiopie, Nigerie nebo Senegal. Ale nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1lost \u010d\u00ednsko-africk\u00fdch vztah\u016f se odehr\u00e1la pod touto \u00farovn\u00ed. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 provincie Chu-nan, le\u017e\u00edc\u00ed na pozemn\u00ed trase P\u00e1su a stezky a s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstupem ke kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm n\u00e1kladn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm. R\u00e1da by se stala hlavn\u00edm prost\u0159edn\u00edkem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch vztah\u016f s\u00a0Afrikou.<\/p>\n

Specializace m\u011bst a provinci\u00ed je v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b b\u011b\u017en\u00e1, tohle by m\u011bla b\u00fdt jedna z\u00a0nich. V\u00a0posledn\u00edm roce se objem v\u00fdm\u011bny s\u00a0Afrikou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm provincie Chu-nan zdvojn\u00e1sobil, ale zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz z\u00a0t\u00e9to provincie do Afriky vzrostl skoro 17kr\u00e1t. Perspektivu nazna\u010dil t\u0159et\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00edk v\u00fdstavy a veletrhu\u00a0China -Africa Economic and Trade Expo<\/em>\u00a0(CAETE) v\u00a0provin\u010dn\u00edm centru \u010cang-\u0161a. P\u0159il\u00e1kal z\u00e1stupce 50 africk\u00fdch zem\u00ed a p\u0159isp\u011bl k\u00a0uzav\u0159en\u00ed smluv za 10 miliard dolar\u016f (v p\u0159epo\u010dtu, teprve uvid\u00edme, v\u00a0jak\u00fdch m\u011bn\u00e1ch se to bude platit).<\/p>\n

Nejde jen o v\u00fdstavy a podepisovan\u00e1 lejstra. Provincie v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech vybudovala obchodn\u00ed infrastrukturu pro zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho centra pro obchody s\u00a0kakaem. Dal\u0161\u00ed africk\u00e9 komodity, kter\u00fdm se tu otev\u00edr\u00e1 vstup, jsou k\u00e1va (dod\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee etiopsk\u00e1 \u010di ke\u0148sk\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed sv\u011btovou \u0161pi\u010dku) nebo med. Rozv\u00edj\u00ed se tak\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce v\u00a0leteck\u00e9 doprav\u011b, kde dominuj\u00ed Ethiopian Air.<\/p>\n

Dopl\u0148uj\u00ed to n\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohody o obchodn\u00edch platb\u00e1ch v\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch a RMB, kter\u00e9 u\u017e byly uzav\u0159eny se \u0161esti st\u00e1ty africk\u00e9ho kontinentu. Provincie Chu-nan pl\u00e1nuje vznik z\u00f3ny voln\u00e9ho obchodu, kter\u00e1 by je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce otev\u0159ela br\u00e1ny africk\u00fdm dovoz\u016fm. Clearingov\u00e9 centrum pro obchody za \u010d\u00ednskou m\u011bnu m\u00e1 nab\u00eddnout \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 a obchodn\u00ed banka ICBC.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/thechinaproject.com\/2023\/07\/06\/why-a-chinese-provinces-trade-plans-could-be-a-game-changer-for-africa\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Setk\u00e1n\u00ed BRICS tedy nebude festivalem hesel, jak u\u017e to s\u00a0takov\u00fdmi b\u00fdv\u00e1. Budeme hl\u00eddat podrobnosti programu, takhle ud\u00e1lost stoj\u00ed za to.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/em><\/div>\n
\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom.<\/em><\/div>\n
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Nejm\u00e9n\u011b 40 hlav st\u00e1t\u016f nebo vl\u00e1d se z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed skupiny BRICS v jihoafrick\u00e9m Johannesburgu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1161,59,45,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34377"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}