{"id":34355,"date":"2023-08-20T01:01:59","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T23:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34355"},"modified":"2023-08-19T15:11:37","modified_gmt":"2023-08-19T13:11:37","slug":"michael-snyder-protoze-to-co-planuji-zcela-znici-americkou-ekonomiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/20\/michael-snyder-protoze-to-co-planuji-zcela-znici-americkou-ekonomiku\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Snyder: Proto\u017ee to, co pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed, zcela zni\u010d\u00ed americkou ekonomiku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Vzpomenete si na ud\u00e1losti roku 2008?\u00a0Mnoho lid\u00ed se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se r\u00fdsuje dal\u0161\u00ed historick\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed krize, kter\u00e1 by mohla m\u00edt potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed dopady na americkou ekonomiku.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vno jsem psal o investorovi jm\u00e9nem Michael Burry, kter\u00fd ve skute\u010dnosti vsadil 1,6 miliardy dolar\u016f, \u017ee akciov\u00fd trh spadne.\u00a0Jeho progn\u00f3za se v roce 2008 uk\u00e1zala jako spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 a v roce 2023 je rozhodnuto m\u00edt op\u011bt pravdu (\u010dl\u00e1nek v n\u011bm\u010din\u011b\u00a0<\/span>zde<\/span><\/a>).\u00a0Je bohu\u017eel zar\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace se v mnoh\u00e9m podob\u00e1 roku 2008: trh reziden\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed je prakticky ne\u010dinn\u00fd a ceny komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed klesaj\u00ed alarmuj\u00edc\u00edm tempem.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel, p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu signalizuj\u00ed, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b nedokon\u010dili stabilizaci ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby hypot\u00e9k tento t\u00fdden p\u0159es\u00e1hly 7 procent, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 za v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>20 let<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby hypot\u00e9k tento t\u00fdden p\u0159es\u00e1hly 7 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 za v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba obl\u00edben\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky s fixn\u00ed sazbou na 30 let vzrostla tento t\u00fdden na 7,09 % z 6,96 % v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm t\u00fddnu, uvedl ve \u010dtvrtek Freddie Mac.\u00a0To je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od prvn\u00edho dubnov\u00e9ho t\u00fddne 2002 a teprve pot\u0159et\u00ed se \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby od t\u00e9 doby dostaly nad 7 %.\u00a0Naposledy to bylo v \u0159\u00edjnu a listopadu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, kdy sazba dos\u00e1hla 7,08 %.<\/span><\/cite>Vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby hypot\u00e9k samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch paralyzuj\u00ed realitn\u00ed trh.<\/span><\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b roku byly prodeje st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch dom\u016f o ohromn\u00fdch 18,9 procenta ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ve stejnou dobu v roce 2022…<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkov\u00e9 prodeje st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch dom\u016f \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b dokon\u010den\u00fdch transakc\u00ed za rodinn\u00e9 domy, m\u011bstsk\u00e9 domy, byty a dru\u017estva \u2013 v \u010dervnu oproti kv\u011btnu klesly o 3,3 %.\u00a0Sez\u00f3nn\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edra \u010dinila 4,16 milionu tr\u017eeb.\u00a0Meziro\u010dn\u011b tr\u017eby klesly o 18,9 %, co\u017e je pokles z 5,13 milionu prodej\u016f v \u010dervnu 2022.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ur\u010dit\u011b je mnoho lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed by si r\u00e1di koupili bydlen\u00ed, ale s vysok\u00fdmi sazbami hypot\u00e9k si to prost\u011b nemohou dovolit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bydlen\u00ed se v t\u00e9to zemi stalo extr\u00e9mn\u011b nedostupn\u00fdm.\u00a0Podle Redfina pod\u00edl u\u010ditel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed si mohou dovolit koupit d\u016fm pobl\u00ed\u017e \u0161koly, kde pracuj\u00ed, klesl\u00a0<\/span>na pouh\u00fdch 12 procent…<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Podle \u00fadaj\u016f spole\u010dnosti Redfin po\u010det u\u010ditel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed si mohou dovolit dostupn\u00e9 bydlen\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m \u0161koln\u00edm obvodu na celost\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00farovni, klesl na pouh\u00fdch 12 %, ze 17 % loni v l\u00e9t\u011b a 30 % v roce 2019, uprost\u0159ed nejhor\u0161\u00ed krize dostupnosti bydlen\u00ed. generace.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Redfinova anal\u00fdza pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch plat\u016f u\u010ditel\u016f v roce 2022 v 50 velk\u00fdch m\u011bstech pro v\u00edce ne\u017e 70 000 ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch a soukrom\u00fdch \u0161kol PreK-12 zjistila, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd u\u010ditel v San Jose a San Diegu si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit byt v dojezdov\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti do sv\u00fdch \u0161kol, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 domov a pr\u00e1ce jsou 20 minut j\u00edzdy b\u011bhem typick\u00e9 \u0161pi\u010dky.<\/span><\/cite>Tolik \u0161kod u\u017e bylo nap\u00e1ch\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale o\u010dividn\u011b se p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed v\u00edce masakr\u016f, proto\u017ee nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>na stole je dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb…<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina p\u0159edstavitel\u016f Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu na sv\u00e9m \u010dervencov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed signalizovala, \u017ee vysok\u00e1 inflace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hrozbou, kter\u00e1 by si letos mohla vy\u017e\u00e1dat dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pis ze zased\u00e1n\u00ed rady Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu USA z 25. a\u017e 26. \u010dervence zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd ve st\u0159edu ukazuje, \u017ee p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky poznamenali, \u017ee inflace z\u016fstala v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad 2% c\u00edlem Fedu \u2013 a tv\u016frci politik \u201ena\u0161li dal\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1mky.\u201c pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed vid\u011bt agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku a agreg\u00e1ty. nab\u00eddka se posune do lep\u0161\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy, aby bylo jist\u00e9, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky polevuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/cite>Ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u011blej to.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdyby \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u016fstaly na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farovni, budeme m\u00edt extr\u00e9mn\u00ed bolest.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb by bylo sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee to stejn\u011b ud\u011blaj\u00ed, a to by mohlo\u00a0<\/span>posunout sazby hypot\u00e9k k hranici 8 procent…<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee pokud bude ekonomika nad\u00e1le vykazovat zn\u00e1mky s\u00edly a americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka se rozhodne sazby znovu zv\u00fd\u0161it, sazby hypot\u00e9k by mohly vzr\u016fst nad 8 procent.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby hypot\u00e9k nebyly tak vysok\u00e9 od roku 2000, podle \u00fadaj\u016f sestaven\u00fdch Freddie Macem.<\/span><\/cite>Opravdu ti odpov\u011bdn\u00ed z Fedu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1\u0161 syst\u00e9m zvl\u00e1dne tak vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud Fed nezm\u011bn\u00ed kurz, trh s nemovitostmi tot\u00e1ln\u011b zkolabuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b trh komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed u\u017e imploduje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chaos, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e r\u00fdsuje, t\u011b\u017ece dol\u00e9h\u00e1 na na\u0161e finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce a Fitch varuje, \u017ee by mohlo brzy doj\u00edt ke\u00a0<\/span>sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed velkoobchodn\u00edho ratingu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0bankovn\u00edho sektoru…<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytik Fitch Ratings varoval, \u017ee americk\u00fd bankovn\u00ed sektor se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil k dal\u0161\u00edmu zdroji ot\u0159es\u016f \u2013 riziku rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed ratingu des\u00edtek americk\u00fdch bank, kter\u00e9 by mohly zahrnovat i JPMorgan Chase<\/span><\/em>
\n.<\/span>
\nRatingov\u00e1 agentura v \u010dervnu sn\u00ed\u017eila sv\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed zdrav\u00ed sektoru, co\u017e je krok, kter\u00fd podle analytika Chrise Wolfe z\u016fstal do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed, proto\u017ee nevedl k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed bank.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V mnoha ohledech m\u00e1m pocit, jako bych sledoval opakov\u00e1n\u00ed roku 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu p\u0159esn\u011b vid\u00ed, co se d\u011bje, ale trvaj\u00ed na tom, aby se v\u011bci zhor\u0161ily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee douf\u00e1m, \u017ee jste se p\u0159ipravili na turbulentn\u00ed \u010dasy, proto\u017ee v\u011bci se zbl\u00e1zn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel v\u011bt\u0161ina Ameri\u010dan\u016f nen\u00ed p\u0159ipravena na hor\u0161\u00ed \u010dasy.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum zjistil, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>72 procent Ameri\u010dan\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je finan\u010dn\u011b nejist\u00fdch…<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro mnoho Ameri\u010dan\u016f nem\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdplata p\u0159ij\u00edt dostate\u010dn\u011b brzy.\u00a0Podle zpr\u00e1vy LendingClub \u017eilo v \u010dervnu 61 % dosp\u011bl\u00fdch od v\u00fdplaty k v\u00fdplat\u011b.\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy, jsou odk\u00e1z\u00e1ni na pravideln\u00e9 v\u00fdplaty, aby pokryly z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, a nezb\u00fdvaj\u00ed jim \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pen\u00edze.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny, 72 % Ameri\u010dan\u016f tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nejsou finan\u010dn\u011b zabezpe\u010deni vzhledem ke sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed situaci, a v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtina uvedla, \u017ee podle pr\u016fzkumu Bankrate pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nikdy nebudou finan\u010dn\u011b zabezpe\u010deni.<\/span><\/cite>Mnoho z t\u011bchto lid\u00ed v t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 krizi p\u0159ijde o pr\u00e1ci a bez finan\u010dn\u00edho pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159e, o kter\u00fd by se mohli op\u0159\u00edt, mnoz\u00ed z nich nakonec ztrat\u00ed i sv\u00e9 domovy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdchoz\u00ed sazby ji\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed r\u016fst a to by n\u00e1s v\u0161echny m\u011blo hluboce znepokojovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale to, co jsme zat\u00edm vid\u011bli, je jen \u0161pi\u010dka ledovce.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipravte se na to, co v\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1, proto\u017ee odsud to bude jen hrbolat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vzpomenete si na ud\u00e1losti roku 2008?\u00a0Mnoho lid\u00ed se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se r\u00fdsuje dal\u0161\u00ed historick\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,683,371,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34355"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34355\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}