{"id":34238,"date":"2023-08-18T01:04:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T23:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34238"},"modified":"2023-08-17T14:15:44","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T12:15:44","slug":"jak-skonci-valka-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/18\/jak-skonci-valka-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak skon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Pokus\u00edm se to popsat jednodu\u0161e.\u00a0Je to slo\u017eit\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, ale mus\u00edme se nad n\u00ed zamyslet, pokud se m\u00e1 sv\u011bt vyhnout jadern\u00e9mu holocaustu.\u00a0Jsou v podstat\u011b t\u0159i mo\u017enosti:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e1 kapitulace<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>dojednan\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu a vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed, tedy patov\u00e1 situace.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu vojensk\u00e1 operace na Ukrajin\u011b nen\u00ed v\u00e1lkou.\u00a0V\u00e1lka znamen\u00e1 zni\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele \u2013 fyzicky, materi\u00e1ln\u011b i politicky.\u00a0Na rozd\u00edl od toho, co tvrd\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed propaganda, Rusko se vyhnulo zp\u016fsobov\u00e1n\u00ed masov\u00fdch civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Rusko se nepokusilo zni\u010dit z\u00e1padn\u00ed platformy ISR, ukrajinskou vl\u00e1dn\u00ed infrastrukturu ani ukrajinsk\u00e9 politiky.\u00a0Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Rusko hr\u00e1lo jen n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze sv\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch karet.\u00a0Kdo jde do v\u00e1lky, hraje se v\u0161emi kartami.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ukrajina a jej\u00ed spojenci v NATO jsou diametr\u00e1ln\u011b odli\u0161n\u00ed: jde o ruskou \u00fato\u010dnou v\u00e1lku.\u00a0Ukrajina na rozd\u00edl od Ruska nejen mobilizovala sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1ceschopn\u00e9 obyvatelstvo, ale tak\u00e9 natla\u010dila mlad\u00e9 lidi do 18 let a mu\u017ee mezi 45 a 65 lety do uniforem a poslala je na frontu jako potravu pro d\u011bla.\u00a0Schopnost Ukrajiny udr\u017eet v\u00e1lku zcela z\u00e1vis\u00ed na dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch pen\u011bz a zbran\u00ed ze strany USA a dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed NATO.\u00a0Bez zahrani\u010dn\u00ed podpory nem\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina v\u00e9st modern\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Poj\u010fme se tedy pod\u00edvat na n\u011bkter\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 fakta:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Ukrajina trp\u00ed ni\u010div\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami a nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vycvi\u010den\u00e9 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 by se mohly rozm\u00edstit na boji\u0161ti.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Ukrajina nem\u00e1 funk\u010dn\u00ed flotilu bojov\u00fdch letadel.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Ukrajina nem\u00e1 z\u00e1soby tank\u016f, vozidel, d\u011bl a d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Ukrajina nem\u00e1 na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 bezpe\u010dn\u00e1 v\u00fdcvikov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ani z\u00e1kladny a p\u0159i v\u00fdcviku se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na jin\u00e9 zem\u011b NATO.\u00a0(To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u0161kolen\u00ed je omezen\u00e9 a nen\u00ed standardizovan\u00e9).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Ukrajinsk\u00e1 protiofenz\u00edva na prolomen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany Surovikin selhala a Ukrajina nem\u00e1 bojovou schopnost eskalovat \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Rusko m\u00e1 naproti tomu velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed vycvi\u010den\u00fdch vojskov\u00fdch z\u00e1loh, d\u011blost\u0159eleckou munici, d\u011blost\u0159electvo (mobiln\u00ed i stacion\u00e1rn\u00ed), \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely, drony, v\u00edce ne\u017e tis\u00edc letadel s pevn\u00fdmi k\u0159\u00eddly, \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 vrtuln\u00edky a masivn\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Rusko m\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nerostn\u00e9 zdroje, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuje k z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Rusko ji\u017e nen\u00ed obchodn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na Z\u00e1pad\u011b a jeho ekonomika roste navzdory z\u00e1padn\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm sankc\u00edm.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Mnoho z\u00e1padn\u00edch analytik\u016f tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee situace na Ukrajin\u011b uv\u00e1zla na mrtv\u00e9m bod\u011b a \u017ee v\u00e1lka s Ruskem bude trvat roky.\u00a0To je nesmysl.\u00a0Vzhledem k v\u00fd\u0161e nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm skute\u010dnostem jsou v\u00fdhody pln\u011b na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b.\u00a0Ukrajina v sou\u010dasnosti nem\u00e1 oproti Rusku \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdhodu.\u00a0Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00e1lka mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou skon\u010d\u00ed patovou situac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A vyjednan\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed?\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1, ale jak\u00e1koliv dohoda bude za podm\u00ednek Ruska.\u00a0Rusko bude trvat na tom, aby Krym, Cherson, Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, Don\u011bck a Luhansk byly mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uzn\u00e1ny jako trval\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1sti Ruska.\u00a0To je nesmlouvav\u00e9.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed nad\u00e1le trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee o tom nelze vyjedn\u00e1vat.\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy: dohoda nen\u00ed v nedohlednu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>T\u0159et\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e1 kapitulace.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m posouv\u00e1 k bodu zlomu.\u00a0Ukrajina nem\u00e1 vycvi\u010den\u00e9 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edky, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli sp\u011bchat do p\u0159edn\u00edch lini\u00ed, aby prolomili ruskou obranu.\u00a0Ukrajina je v podobn\u00e9 situaci jako konfedera\u010dn\u00ed gener\u00e1l Robert E. Lee v Appomattoxu.\u00a0Leeova potlu\u010den\u00e1 arm\u00e1da cht\u011bla pokra\u010dovat v boji proti Severu, ale i p\u0159es jejich bojovn\u00e9ho ducha jim chyb\u011bla logistika a pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla, aby mohli pokra\u010dovat.\u00a0Lee rozpoznal bezv\u00fdchodnost situace a p\u0159ijal velkorys\u00e9 podm\u00ednky gener\u00e1la Ulyssese Granta.\u00a0V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1la Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho brzy \u010dek\u00e1 podobn\u00fd okam\u017eik pravdy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je hlubok\u00e1 roztr\u017eka mezi Zelensk\u00fdm a jeho vojensk\u00fdmi veliteli ohledn\u011b toho, zda pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1lce.\u00a0V\u016fle Ukrajinc\u016f bojovat nen\u00ed n\u00e1hradou za poskytnut\u00ed nezbytn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, za v\u00fdcvik voj\u00e1k\u016f k pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed.\u00a0V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neexistuje pro Ukrajinu sch\u016fdn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak pokra\u010dovat ve vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00edch bez zaru\u010den\u00e9 podpory NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>NATO je v tomto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu vtip\u00e1lkem.\u00a0V nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se USA nebo dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO rozhodnou zas\u00e1hnout a vyslat na Ukrajinu vlastn\u00ed voj\u00e1ky.\u00a0To by byl konec \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace\u201c a za\u010d\u00e1tek plnohodnotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud v\u00e1s zaj\u00edm\u00e1 \u201ev\u011bda\u201c o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky, zde je n\u011bkolik odkaz\u016f na akademick\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce na toto t\u00e9ma.\u00a0Nesouhlas\u00edm ani neschvaluji n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry, ale myslel jsem si, \u017ee by mohly b\u00fdt u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed se cht\u011bj\u00ed do t\u00e9matu pono\u0159it hloub\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/hls.harvard.edu\/courses\/how-wars-end-the-role-of-negotiation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/hls.harvard.edu\/courses\/how-wars-end-the-role-of-negotiation\/\"><span>How Wars End: The Role of Negotiation<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(Harvardsk\u00fd kurz)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><span>V\u00e1lky podle v\u0161eobecn\u00e9ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed kon\u010d\u00ed po rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 bitv\u011b kone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm \u2013 jedna strana se vzd\u00e1v\u00e1, druh\u00e1 vych\u00e1z\u00ed jako v\u00edt\u011bz.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 historie ve skute\u010dnosti ukazuje, \u017ee v\u011bci jsou obvykle mnohem komplikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mezi konfliktn\u00edmi stranami obvykle hraje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed roli p\u0159i ukon\u010den\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f.\u00a0Jen si vzpome\u0148te na Koreu, Vietnam, Bosnu, Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n a Ir\u00e1k.\u00a0Tato \u010dten\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 skupina zkoum\u00e1 roli vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159i ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lek.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691140605\/how-wars-end\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/books\/paperback\/9780691140605\/how-wars-end\"><span>How Wars End<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(kniha od Dana Reitera)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Dan Reiter vysv\u011btluje, jak informace o v\u00fdsledc\u00edch boj\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch faktorech mohou v\u00e9st v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1rod k tomu, aby v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b po\u017eadoval p\u0159i m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch, a pro\u010d m\u016f\u017ee n\u00e1rod odm\u00edtnout vyjedn\u00e1vat o omezen\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch a m\u00edsto toho tvrdohlav\u011b usilovat o p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jeho nep\u0159\u00edtel nedodr\u017e\u00ed m\u00edr. dohoda.\u00a0Tuto teorii rozv\u00e1d\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u011b testuje na v\u00edce ne\u017e dvaceti p\u0159\u00edpadech ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b rozhodnut\u00ed u\u010din\u011bn\u00fdch b\u011bhem americk\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, obou sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00e1lek a korejsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Reiter pom\u00e1h\u00e1 vy\u0159e\u0161it n\u011bkter\u00e9 z nejtrvalej\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1had vojensk\u00e9 historie, v\u010detn\u011b toho, pro\u010d Abraham Lincoln vydal prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o emancipaci,<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine\"><span>jak to skon\u010d\u00ed\u00a0Co se m\u016f\u017eeme nau\u010dit z minul\u00fdch v\u00e1lek o z\u00e1chran\u011b Ukrajiny<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(CSIS dokument)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Nastal \u010das krizov\u00e9 diplomacie.\u00a0\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le v\u00e1lka trv\u00e1, ani\u017e by jedna ze stran d\u011blala \u00fastupky, t\u00edm je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159eroste v vlekl\u00fd konflikt.\u00a0Navzdory state\u010dnosti ukrajinsk\u00e9ho lidu tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 rusk\u00e9 agresi je to nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 vyhl\u00eddka.\u00a0Uprchlick\u00e1 krize bude s\u00edlit.\u00a0Zem\u0159e v\u00edce civilist\u016f.\u00a0Rusko se st\u00e1v\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b paranoidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a iracion\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.\u00a0Krom\u011b sankc\u00ed pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ru\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i \u017eivotaschopn\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 obav\u00e1m v\u0161ech stran.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegatewaypundit.com\/2023\/08\/how-will-war-ukraine-end\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-33819 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ces1-300x157.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1343\" height=\"703\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ces1-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ces1-1024x536.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ces1-768x402.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ces1.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1343px) 100vw, 1343px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stranapro.cz\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-30218 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1342\" height=\"161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner-768x93.png 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/PRO-banner.png 849w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1342px) 100vw, 1342px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pokus\u00edm se to popsat jednodu\u0161e.\u00a0Je to slo\u017eit\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, ale mus\u00edme se nad n\u00ed zamyslet, pokud&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34238"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34238\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}