{"id":34153,"date":"2023-08-16T06:10:18","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T04:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=34153"},"modified":"2023-08-16T06:10:18","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T04:10:18","slug":"william-engdahl-proc-cina-nemuze-vytahnout-svet-z-nove-velke-krize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/16\/william-engdahl-proc-cina-nemuze-vytahnout-svet-z-nove-velke-krize\/","title":{"rendered":"William Engdahl: Pro\u010d \u010c\u00edna nem\u016f\u017ee vyt\u00e1hnout sv\u011bt z nov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 krize"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Za posledn\u00edch dvacet let od p\u0159ijet\u00ed \u010c\u00edny do WTO dos\u00e1hla jej\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna neb\u00fdval\u00e9ho pokroku a stala se p\u0159edn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm v\u00fdrobcem v mnoha v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch oblastech. Akademick\u00e9 debaty o tom, zda je HDP \u010c\u00edny v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e HDP USA, nejsou na m\u00edst\u011b. HDP je jako m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko skute\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomiky do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry bezcenn\u00fd. M\u011b\u0159eno skute\u010dnou fyzickou ekonomickou produkc\u00ed \u010c\u00edna nechala USA a v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed v prachu. Proto je budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby v \u010c\u00edn\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pro budoucnost sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky. Globalizace sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky to tak u\u010dinila.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
V\u00fdroba oceli je st\u00e1le nejlep\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem rostouc\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomiky. V roce 2021 \u010c\u00edna vyrobila v\u00edce ne\u017e dvan\u00e1ctkr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ton\u00e1\u017e oceli ne\u017e USA, tedy p\u0159es jednu miliardu tun. USA, kdysi sv\u011btov\u00fd l\u00eddr, zvl\u00e1dly pidi 86 milion\u016f tun. V tun\u00e1ch uhl\u00ed \u010c\u00edna produkuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 % celkov\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed. Ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 70 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eby vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin a v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 % jejich zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed, a to d\u00edky podivn\u00fdm politick\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm USA, kter\u00e1 trvaj\u00ed ji\u017e n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna je dnes zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdrobcem motorov\u00fdch vozidel, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e USA, s 27 miliony kus\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e bude v roce 2022 t\u0159etina sv\u011btov\u00e9ho celku. \u010c\u00edna je zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdrobcem cementu nezbytn\u00e9ho pro stavebnictv\u00ed a je p\u0159edn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdrobcem hlin\u00edku. V roce 2022 to bude 40 milion\u016f tun, zat\u00edmco v USA ani ne jeden milion tun. Je tak\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm spot\u0159ebitelem m\u011bdi. Seznam by mohl pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n

To jen nazna\u010duje, jak z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdznam m\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika pro sv\u011btov\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst v posledn\u00edch dvou desetilet\u00edch. P\u0159ed pouh\u00fdmi \u010dty\u0159mi desetilet\u00edmi byla \u010c\u00edna z hlediska sv\u011btov\u00e9 re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomiky bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e1. Pokud se tedy \u010c\u00edna dostane do hlubok\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho poklesu, bude m\u00edt tentokr\u00e1t dopad celosv\u011btov\u00fd. A pr\u00e1v\u011b to nyn\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je poznamenat, \u017ee kontrakce za\u010dala d\u00e1vno p\u0159ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm t\u0159\u00edlet\u00fdm zablokov\u00e1n\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho nulov\u00e9ho kovidu. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, \u010c\u00edn\u011b se od takzvan\u00e9 velk\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v roce 2008 poda\u0159ilo vytvo\u0159it finan\u010dn\u00ed bublinu, jej\u00ed\u017e velikost sv\u011bt nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm neza\u017eil. Tato bublina se za\u010dala vypou\u0161t\u011bt, po\u010d\u00ednaje nemovitostmi, kolem roku 2019. Jej\u00ed rozsah je syst\u00e9mov\u00fd a teprve za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed oddlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a skryt\u00fd dluh<\/h2>\n

Obrovsk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho modelu v posledn\u00edch dvou desetilet\u00edch byla skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se jednalo o finan\u010dn\u00ed model zalo\u017een\u00fd na dluhu, kter\u00fd se masivn\u011b soust\u0159edil na spekulace s nemovitostmi nad r\u00e1mec toho, co ekonomika dok\u00e1\u017ee str\u00e1vit.<\/p>\n

Pln\u00fdch 25 a\u017e 30 % celkov\u00e9ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho HDP poch\u00e1z\u00ed z investic do nemovitost\u00ed, dom\u016f, byt\u016f a kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. To je v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee nemovitosti, zejm\u00e9na byty, se v \u010c\u00edn\u011b po v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed jevily jako zaru\u010den\u00fd zdroj pen\u011bz jak pro majitele, tak pro stavitele a banky a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro m\u00edstn\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky. Ceny rostly ro\u010dn\u011b dvoucifern\u00fdm tempem, n\u011bkdy a\u017e o 20 %. Miliony \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f ze st\u0159edn\u00ed t\u0159\u00eddy si nekoupily jen jeden, ale dva nebo v\u00edce byt\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ten druh\u00fd vyu\u017eily jako investici na budouc\u00ed d\u016fchod. Pozemky v \u010c\u00edn\u011b vlastn\u00ed komunistick\u00e1 strana, a to na m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00farovni. Je dlouhodob\u011b pronaj\u00edm\u00e1na stavebn\u00edm firm\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 si pak na v\u00fdstavbu p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zde se to st\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00fdm. Pro \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky m\u00edstn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy \u010cKS jsou p\u0159\u00edjmy z pron\u00e1jmu m\u00edstn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed a jejich infrastrukturn\u00edch projekt\u016f hlavn\u00edm zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Dosud jsou dan\u011b z obecn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed zak\u00e1z\u00e1ny, a to i p\u0159es obrovsk\u00fd tlak m\u00edstn\u00edch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n

V m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch 2018 a 2019 dos\u00e1hly ceny \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch nemovitost\u00ed vrcholu. Od t\u00e9 doby dlouhodob\u011b klesaj\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 jedine\u010dn\u00fd model nemovitost\u00ed, kter\u00fd je velmi n\u00e1chyln\u00fd ke zneu\u017eit\u00ed. Obvykle mus\u00ed kupuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edem zaplatit celou kupn\u00ed cenu, kdy\u017e developer teprve zah\u00e1jil v\u00fdstavbu. \u201eKupte dnes, proto\u017ee z\u00edtra bude cena je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed\u201c, zn\u011bla mantra. K tomu si bere hypot\u00e9ku, obvykle od m\u00edstn\u00edch bank. Pokud stavitel nedokon\u010d\u00ed stavbu v\u010das, mus\u00ed kupuj\u00edc\u00ed hypot\u00e9ku st\u00e1le spl\u00e1cet. A to i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee developer zkrachuje, jako se to d\u011bje nyn\u00ed, a z\u016fstane po n\u011bm opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 nedokon\u010den\u00e9 bydlen\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 jin\u00e1 zem\u011b tento model nepou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1. V z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch obvykle sta\u010d\u00ed mal\u00e1 z\u00e1loha na d\u016fm, kter\u00e1 se rezervuje do dokon\u010den\u00ed. Hypot\u00e9ka p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed, kdy\u017e je nemovitost dokon\u010dena. V \u010c\u00edn\u011b ne.<\/p>\n

Dokud ceny dom\u016f v \u010c\u00edn\u011b neust\u00e1le rostly, zd\u00e1nliv\u011b to fungovalo a trh s domy se roz\u0161i\u0159oval. Kdy\u017e se tato cenov\u00e1 inflace z nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f zastavila a byla je\u0161t\u011b prohloubena mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdmi kovidov\u00fdmi blokacemi, za\u010dala tehdy kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed realitn\u00ed bublina splask\u00e1vat. Podle ekonoma Roberta Pettise z Pekingsk\u00e9 univerzity \u201eod za\u010d\u00e1tku krize na trhu s nemovitostmi v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a \u0159\u00edjnu 2021 klesly ceny nemovitost\u00ed ve v\u00edce ne\u017e dvou t\u0159etin\u00e1ch ze sedmdes\u00e1ti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch m\u011bst (a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i ve v\u0161ech men\u0161\u00edch), a co je je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, prodeje nov\u00fdch byt\u016f v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce (2022) se zhroutily\u201c. [i]<\/p>\n

K z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu zlomu do\u0161lo v roce 2021 v souvislosti se selh\u00e1n\u00edm spole\u010dnosti China Evergrande Group v oblasti dolarov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. Tehdy \u0161lo o nejzadlu\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00ed realitn\u00ed konglomer\u00e1t na sv\u011bt\u011b s dluhy v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edmi 300 miliard dolar\u016f. V roce 2018 byla Evergrande podle Wikipedie pova\u017eov\u00e1na za \u201enejhodnotn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed realitn\u00ed skupinu na sv\u011bt\u011b\u201c. To bylo na pap\u00ed\u0159e. V dob\u011b platebn\u00ed neschopnosti vlastnila tak\u00e9 z\u00e1bavn\u00ed parky, spole\u010dnost vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed elektromobily, letoviska a dostatek pozemk\u016f pro 10 milion\u016f lid\u00ed. Dokud Peking v opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 snaze o ochlazen\u00ed bubliny neodm\u00edtl Evergrande zachr\u00e1nit, poskytovali \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee velc\u00ed dlu\u017en\u00edci budou zachr\u00e1n\u011bni \u2013 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velc\u00ed na to, aby selhali. Peking se pou\u010dil z chybn\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed americk\u00fdch bank po p\u00e1du banky Lehman Bros.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Vy\u0161lo najevo, \u017ee Evergrande vytvo\u0159ila v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed Ponziho podvod. Nebyly ojedin\u011bl\u00e9. Po spekulativn\u00edm realitn\u00edm boomu po roce 2010 se \u0161patn\u011b regulovan\u00e9 m\u00edstn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy po cel\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b st\u00e1le v\u00edce obracely k nemovitostem, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159\u00edjmy a naplnily c\u00edle Pekingu v oblasti r\u016fstu HDP, co\u017e byla de facto m\u011bnov\u00e1 verze sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho centr\u00e1ln\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nafukov\u00e1n\u00ed hodnoty m\u00edstn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed bylo zp\u016fsobem, jak splnit m\u00edstn\u00ed c\u00edle HDP. M\u00edstn\u00edm \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016fm byl stanoven pod\u00edl na ro\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku k HDP, kter\u00fd m\u011bl b\u00fdt spln\u011bn. Nemovitosti se staly ide\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159edkem pro spln\u011bn\u00ed c\u00edl\u016f HDP a generov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Dokud ceny rostly, banky a st\u00e1le v\u00edce neregulovan\u00e9 m\u00edstn\u00ed \u201est\u00ednov\u00e9 banky\u201c se p\u0159ipojovaly k \u201eoboustrann\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9\u201c bonanze. Podle den\u00edku South China Morning Post dos\u00e1hl do roku 2020 a za\u010d\u00e1tku kvida\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdch v\u00fdluk p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek prodeje pozemk\u016f a dan\u00ed z nemovitost\u00ed k fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjm\u016fm m\u00edstn\u00edch samospr\u00e1v vrcholu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 37,6 %. [ii]<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 platebn\u00ed neschopnost spole\u010dnosti Evergrande vyvolala v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m realitn\u00edm sektoru paniku, kterou se \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci zoufale a ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b sna\u017eili zvl\u00e1dnout. Jednalo se pouze o prvn\u00ed velkou ob\u011b\u0165 v r\u00e1mci syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho kolapsu. Pekingsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v marn\u00e9 snaze omezit implozi zavedly ostr\u00e9 limity pro poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f na nemovitosti, takzvan\u00e9 t\u0159i \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry. T\u00edm se imploze realitn\u00ed bubliny je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161ila. V roce 2022 se prodeje nov\u00fdch dom\u016f v \u010c\u00edn\u011b propadly o 22 % oproti roku 2021. Od \u00fanora 2023 klesaly ceny dom\u016f v \u010c\u00edn\u011b 16 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v \u0159ad\u011b. Prodeje 100 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch developer\u016f v zemi v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce dos\u00e1hly pouze 60 % \u00farovn\u011b z roku 2021. Prodej pozemk\u016f, kter\u00fd obvykle tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 % p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f m\u00edstn\u00edch vl\u00e1d, se zhroutil. [iii]<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 domy a rostouc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost<\/h2>\n

A\u017e do roku 2022, kdy za\u010dala bublina splask\u00e1vat v souvislosti se selh\u00e1n\u00edm spole\u010dnosti Evergrande, rostly \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ceny nemovitost\u00ed v pom\u011bru k p\u0159\u00edjm\u016fm dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e v USA. Je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed zb\u011bsil\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 inflace vytvo\u0159ila doslova m\u011bsta duch\u016f a miliony pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch byt\u016f.\u00a0Odhaduje se, \u017ee v roce 2021 bylo v \u010c\u00edn\u011b pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch 65 milion\u016f byt\u016f, co\u017e by sta\u010dilo na cel\u00fd francouzsk\u00fd n\u00e1rod.<\/b>\u00a0[iv] Byl to d\u016fsledek dvou \u010di v\u00edce desetilet\u00ed, kdy obce a develope\u0159i stav\u011bli nad r\u00e1mec skute\u010dn\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky, proto\u017ee ob\u010dan\u00e9 kupovali za \u00fa\u010delem investice, nikoli bydlen\u00ed. Podle jednoho z odhad\u016f byla p\u011btina a\u017e \u010dtvrtina celkov\u00e9ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho bytov\u00e9ho fondu, zejm\u00e9na v \u017e\u00e1dan\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bstech, ve vlastnictv\u00ed spekulativn\u00edch kupc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v nich nem\u011bli v \u00famyslu bydlet ani je pronaj\u00edmat. V \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 kultu\u0159e je pou\u017eit\u00fd byt pova\u017eov\u00e1n za neatraktivn\u00ed[v] a s klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi cenami se tyto domy st\u00e1vaj\u00ed nesplatiteln\u00fdmi.<\/p>\n

Bezprecedentn\u00ed t\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9 v\u00fdluky z prodeje byt\u016f, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1hle skon\u010dily loni v prosinci, situaci nepomohly. Tis\u00edce zahrani\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdrobc\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b spole\u010dnost\u00ed Apple, Foxconn, Samsung a Sony, za\u010daly opou\u0161t\u011bt \u010c\u00ednu a odch\u00e1zet do jin\u00fdch lokalit v Asii nebo dokonce do Mexika, co\u017e podn\u011bcuje rostouc\u00ed krizi nezam\u011bstnanosti, kter\u00e1 v samosp\u00e1dem \u017eiv\u00ed krizi bydlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku t\u00e9to pomal\u00e9 imploze v cel\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b se poprv\u00e9 od velk\u00e9 expanze st\u00e1v\u00e1 nezam\u011bstnanost velmi v\u00e1\u017enou. Letos v b\u0159eznu ofici\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010dila nezam\u011bstnanost mlad\u00fdch lid\u00ed 20 %. Miliony \u010derstv\u00fdch absolvent\u016f vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol nemohou naj\u00edt pr\u00e1ci a Peking je za\u010dal pos\u00edlat na pr\u00e1ci na venkov, co\u017e p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Maovu \u00e9ru. To nev\u011bst\u00ed nic dobr\u00e9ho pro budouc\u00ed prodej dom\u016f. Stahuj\u00edc\u00ed se bublina m\u00e1 za\u010darovanou dynamiku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b do doby kon\u00e1n\u00ed olympijsk\u00fdch her v Pekingu v roce 2008 byly investice do nemovitost\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b produktivn\u00ed. Vypl\u0148ovaly obrovsk\u00fd deficit kvalitn\u00edho bydlen\u00ed, proto\u017ee nov\u00e1 st\u0159edn\u00ed t\u0159\u00edda se st\u00e1vala st\u00e1le bohat\u0161\u00ed. Zhruba po roce 2010 se to za\u010dalo m\u011bnit ve stav bubliny, proto\u017ee miliony \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f ze st\u0159edn\u00ed t\u0159\u00eddy a bohat\u00fdch \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f za\u010daly kupovat druh\u00e9 a dokonce t\u0159et\u00ed bydlen\u00ed \u010dist\u011b ze spekulace, proto\u017ee ceny rostly dvoucifern\u00fdm tempem. M\u00edra centr\u00e1ln\u00edho dohledu nad financemi m\u00edstn\u00edch samospr\u00e1v byla voln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch letech m\u00edstn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, aby se vyhnuly centr\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1sah\u016fm pekingsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f, kter\u00e9 se ob\u00e1valy splasknut\u00ed nov\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 bubliny, vytvo\u0159ily, \u010dasto za skryt\u00e9 domluvy s ob\u0159\u00edmi st\u00e1tn\u00edmi bankami, nebankovn\u00ed ekonomiku, \u201est\u00ednov\u00e9 banky\u201c, v\u0161e mimo rozvahu. Jedn\u00edm z v\u00fdsledk\u016f je, \u017ee navzdory opat\u0159en\u00edm pekingsk\u00fdch regula\u010dn\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem bylo zvl\u00e1dnout krach na trhu s nemovitostmi a zabr\u00e1nit n\u00e1kaze, dos\u00e1hl celkov\u00fd ve\u0159ejn\u00fd i soukrom\u00fd dluh v \u010c\u00edn\u011b podle agentury Bloomberg do \u00fanora 2023 alarmuj\u00edc\u00edch 280 % HDP. [vi]<\/p>\n

Podle serveru Commodity.com \u010din\u00ed celkov\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh \u010c\u00edny v roce 2023 v\u00edce ne\u017e 9,4 bilionu dolar\u016f. K\u010d, av\u0161ak bez zahrnut\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f (LGFV). \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 m\u00edstn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na podrozvahov\u00e9 LGFV, aby z\u00edskaly prost\u0159edky na m\u00edstn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnou v\u00fdstavbu \u2013 bydlen\u00ed, vysokorychlostn\u00ed \u017eeleznice, p\u0159\u00edstavy, leti\u0161t\u011b. Dluhy v\u0161ech t\u011bchto LGFV se odhaduj\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00edch zhruba 27 bilion\u016f USD. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaj o celkov\u00e9m st\u00e1tn\u00edm dluhu nezahrnuje ani dluh st\u00e1tn\u00edch bank a st\u00e1tn\u00edch podnik\u016f, kter\u00fd je zjevn\u011b tak\u00e9 zna\u010dn\u00fd, ale nen\u00ed zve\u0159ejn\u011bn. Tento celkov\u00fd dluh je rovn\u011b\u017e bez nezn\u00e1m\u00e9 velikosti m\u00edstn\u00edch st\u00ednov\u00fdch bank, kter\u00e9 \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd n\u00e1rodn\u00ed institut pro finance a rozvoj v roce 2018 odhadl na dal\u0161\u00edch zhruba 6 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. V\u00fdsledkem v\u0161ech t\u011bchto opomenut\u00ed je tituln\u00ed \u00fadaj, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 uklidnit z\u00e1padn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00fd ve\u0159ejn\u00fd i soukrom\u00fd dluh. Nen\u00ed tomu tak. Celkov\u011b lze velmi zhruba spo\u010d\u00edtat mamut\u00ed kumulaci dluhu ve v\u00fd\u0161i hodn\u011b p\u0159es 42 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, co\u017e je ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed suma pro ekonomiku, kter\u00e1 byla je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u0159emi desetilet\u00edmi na \u00farovni nerozvinut\u00e9 ekonomiky. [vii]<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem financov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edch rozpo\u010dt\u016f jsou nezaru\u010den\u00e9 a z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti neregulovan\u00e9 komun\u00e1ln\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed dluhopisy. Na rozd\u00edl od tradi\u010dn\u00edho komun\u00e1ln\u00edho dluhu v z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch nemohou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 m\u00edstn\u00ed LGFV vyu\u017e\u00edvat da\u0148ov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy k financov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farok\u016f nebo spl\u00e1tek jistiny sv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. M\u00edstn\u00ed samospr\u00e1vy by tedy vyu\u017eily rostouc\u00edho trhu s bydlen\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee by dlouhodob\u011b pronaj\u00edmaly sv\u00e9 pozemky developer\u016fm, aby mohly financovat spl\u00e1tky sv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. Vznikl tak syst\u00e9m, v n\u011bm\u017e trval\u00fd pokles bytov\u00e9 v\u00fdstavby, prodej\u016f a cen nyn\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed syst\u00e9movou hrozbu. Ten nyn\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1 v cel\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b. B\u011bhem pouh\u00fdch dvou desetilet\u00ed vytvo\u0159ila \u010c\u00edna druh\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed trh podnikov\u00e9ho dluhu na sv\u011bt\u011b za USA a zdaleka nejv\u00edce z n\u011bj p\u0159ipad\u00e1 na neregulovan\u00fd dluh v podob\u011b komun\u00e1ln\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku tohoto jedine\u010dn\u00e9ho propojen\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky m\u00edstn\u00edch vl\u00e1d s m\u00edstn\u00edmi trhy s bydlen\u00edm v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles cen byt\u016f nebo pozemk\u016f zna\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il m\u00edru rizika nesplacen\u00ed dluh\u016f m\u00edstn\u00edch vl\u00e1d. V \u010dervenci 2022 m\u011bsto Zunyi v provincii Guizhou nespl\u00e1celo velk\u00e9 dluhopisy, co\u017e vedlo ke kolapsu cel\u00e9ho neregulovan\u00e9ho trhu s m\u00edstn\u00edmi dluhopisy, nebo\u0165 emise m\u00edstn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f se pot\u00e9 propadly o 85 %. Dluhopisy byly zp\u016fsobem refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edho dluhu a tento kan\u00e1l je nyn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 uzav\u0159en, a to i p\u0159es injekce likvidity ze strany Pekingu na po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023. Investory byli v\u011bt\u0161inou m\u00edstn\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u00ed \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017eili vyd\u011blat na \u00faspor\u00e1ch. Letos v dubnu p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 m\u011bsta Guiyang, kter\u00e9 se rovn\u011b\u017e nach\u00e1z\u00ed v provincii Guizhou, sd\u011blili Pekingu, \u017ee nen\u00ed schopno financovat sv\u00e9 dluhy nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 za deset let ve stavebn\u00edch projektech v\u010detn\u011b bytov\u00e9 v\u00fdstavby. [viii] T\u00edm se otev\u00edr\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze dluhov\u00e9 imploze. N\u011bkolik \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch obc\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b sni\u017euje mzdy, omezuje dopravn\u00ed slu\u017eby a sni\u017euje dotace na pohonn\u00e9 hmoty v zoufal\u00e9 snaze vyhnout se platebn\u00ed neschopnosti.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 definice n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti<\/h2>\n

Transparentnost finan\u010dn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f byla v \u010c\u00edn\u011b v\u017edy probl\u00e9mem. P\u0159ed t\u0159iceti lety nem\u011bla zem\u011b rozvinut\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. Dokud v\u0161ak ekonomika rostla, nebyla to priorita. Nyn\u00ed je, ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b.<\/p>\n

Sign\u00e1lem toho, jak v\u00e1\u017enou se situace st\u00e1v\u00e1, je, \u017ee pekingsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady za\u010daly omezovat zve\u0159ej\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edch a podnikov\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f zahrani\u010dn\u00edm firm\u00e1m a ozna\u010duj\u00ed to za ot\u00e1zku \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti\u201c.<\/p>\n

Agentura Bloomberg 9. kv\u011btna uvedla: \u201e\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 omezen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu zahrani\u010dn\u00edch firem k \u00fadaj\u016fm zvy\u0161uje obavy z toho, jak Peking kontroluje tok informac\u00ed v zemi, co\u017e investor\u016fm zt\u011b\u017euje posouzen\u00ed stavu ekonomiky.\u201c Podle nich jsou posti\u017eeny informace jako akademick\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce, soudn\u00ed rozsudky, ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u017eivotopisy politik\u016f a transakce na trhu s dluhopisy. Americk\u00e1 poradensk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Bain &Co. m\u011bla ned\u00e1vno v r\u00e1mci n\u00e1rodn\u00ed kampan\u011b na ochranu dat z\u00e1tah na sv\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Takov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 na n\u011bjakou dobu udr\u017e\u00ed realitu ze str\u00e1nek Wall Street Journal nebo CNBC, ale z\u00e1kladn\u00ed skute\u010dnost kolapsu nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed budovy se bude skr\u00fdvat obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Letos v kv\u011btnu Dalian Wanda Group, dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fd \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd realitn\u00ed konglomer\u00e1t s investicemi do \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f americk\u00fdch kin, australsk\u00fdch nemovitost\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch, odhalil jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se sv\u00fdmi hlavn\u00edmi bank\u00e9\u0159i o restrukturalizaci obrovsk\u00fdch dluh\u016f uprost\u0159ed krize likvidity. Britsk\u00fd list Financial Times 9. kv\u011btna informoval, \u017ee nad\u011bje na o\u017eiven\u00ed \u010c\u00edny po skon\u010den\u00ed epidemie ch\u0159ipky se rozpl\u00fdvaj\u00ed: \u201eCeny \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u017eelezn\u00e9 rudy klesly na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, proto\u017ee slab\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k d\u016fkaz\u016fm, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed zem\u011b po tvrd\u00e9 v\u00fdluce zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 koronavirem m\u016f\u017ee ochabovat… optimismus a aktivita, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledovaly po ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00fdluky, se vytratily, co\u017e vedlo ke \u201ezhroucen\u00ed\u201c trhu s ocel\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee vyhl\u00eddky na to, \u017ee by \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika byla lokomotivou r\u016fstu, kter\u00e1 by pozvedla zbytek sv\u011bta z hroz\u00edc\u00ed deprese, jsou v tuto chv\u00edli prakticky nulov\u00e9. Masivn\u00ed iniciativa P\u00e1smo a stezka se ut\u00e1p\u00ed ve stovk\u00e1ch miliard dolar\u016f p\u016fj\u010dek zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 nejsou schopny obsluhovat dluh, zat\u00edmco sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rostou a r\u016fst se zastavuje. Pokusy podpo\u0159it dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd r\u016fst spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00edm na spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fd boom jsou v sou\u010dasnosti ze zjevn\u00fdch uveden\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f odsouzeny k z\u00e1niku, stejn\u011b jako v\u00fdzva Si \u0164in-pchinga, aby se z\u00e1kladem nov\u00e9ho boomu staly technologie 5G, um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence a podobn\u00e9 technologie, nebo\u0165 americk\u00e9 sankce zna\u010dn\u011b brzd\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd pokrok v oblasti IT.<\/p>\n

Pozn\u00e1mky<\/h2>\n

[i] Michael Pettis, What\u2019s in Store for China\u2019s Mortgage Market?, August 12, 2022,
\nhttps:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/chinafinancialmarkets\/87664<\/a><\/p>\n

[ii] Luna Sun, China cracks down on \u2018characteristic towns\u2019 that misused land, real estate while racking up massive debt, 6 November, 2021,\u00a0https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3155055\/china-cracks-down-characteristic-towns-misused-land-real<\/a><\/p>\n

[iii] Laura He, China s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70 year olds, February 20, 2023\u00a0https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2023\/02\/17\/economy\/china-mortgage-age-95-property-market-intl-hnk\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[iv] Lina Batarags, China has at least 65 million empty homes \u2014 enough to house the population of France. It offers a glimpse into the country\u2019s massive housing-market problem, Business Insider, October 14, 2021,\u00a0https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10<\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

[v] Michael Pettis, What Does Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China?, September, 20, 2021,\u00a0https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/chinafinancialmarkets\/85391<\/a><\/p>\n

[vi] Bloomberg, China\u2019s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to Record 279.7% on Credit Boom, 8 May, 2023,\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-08\/china-s-debt-to-gdp-ratio-rises-to-record-279-7-on-credit-boom#xj4y7vzkg<\/a><\/p>\n

[vii] Commodity.com, China\u2019s National Debt Clock: What\u2019s the Current Figure (and What\u2019s Included), May 12, 2023,\u00a0https:\/\/commodity.com\/data\/china\/debt-clock\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[viii] The Economist, China\u2019s local-debt crisis is about to get nasty, May 4, 2023,\u00a0https:\/\/www.economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2023\/05\/04\/chinas-local-debt-crisis-is-about-to-get-nasty<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Why China Can\u2019t Pull the World Out of a New Great Depression<\/a>\u00a0vy\u0161el 15.8.2023 na Global Research. P\u0159eklad \u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Za posledn\u00edch dvacet let od p\u0159ijet\u00ed \u010c\u00edny do WTO dos\u00e1hla jej\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna neb\u00fdval\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,59,371,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34153\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}