{"id":33740,"date":"2023-08-09T01:05:15","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T23:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33740"},"modified":"2023-08-08T16:18:37","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T14:18:37","slug":"udelejte-mir-vy-idioti-zastupna-valka-ameriky-s-ruskem-udelala-z-ukrajiny-hrbitov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/09\/udelejte-mir-vy-idioti-zastupna-valka-ameriky-s-ruskem-udelala-z-ukrajiny-hrbitov\/","title":{"rendered":"Ud\u011blejte m\u00edr vy idioti! Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka Ameriky s Ruskem ud\u011blala z Ukrajiny h\u0159bitov"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Inkrementalismus \u2013 tendence postupovat pomalu vp\u0159ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e podnikat odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 kroky \u2013 je typicky up\u0159ednost\u0148ov\u00e1n politick\u00fdmi a vojensk\u00fdmi v\u016fdci ve v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed, proto\u017ee pou\u017eit\u00ed men\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu sil vystavuje person\u00e1l riziku a teoreticky slibuje \u0159adu zlep\u0161en\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu, \u010dasto kv\u016fli opot\u0159eben\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 1950 spole\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk \u0161t\u00e1bu veden\u00fd tehdej\u0161\u00edm p\u0159edsedou gener\u00e1lem J. Lawtonem Collinsem doporu\u010dil kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed pod\u00e9l korejsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, aby se postupn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila americko-spojeneck\u00e1 enkl\u00e1va zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako Pusan \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bPerimeter.\u00a0To m\u011blo z\u00edskat \u010das na shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00fdch sil pro pr\u016flom pod\u00e9l linie Normandie.\u00a0Ale gener\u00e1l Douglas MacArthur nesouhlasil.\u00a0Obhajoval odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, hlubok\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 slibovalo od\u0159\u00edznout severokorejsk\u00e9 s\u00edly ji\u017en\u011b od 38. rovnob\u011b\u017eky, kter\u00e1 obklopovala Pusan.<\/span><\/p>\n

MacArthur m\u011bl pravdu.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed v\u00edme, \u017ee kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed bylo p\u0159esn\u011b to, co se severokorejsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed chystalo porazit.\u00a0Zp\u011btn\u011b lze s jistotou \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Severokorejci, stejn\u011b jako jejich \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed spojenci, byli obezn\u00e1meni s opera\u010dn\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm americk\u00fdch a spojeneck\u00fdch sil ve druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Eisenhowerovo trv\u00e1n\u00ed na strategii \u0161irok\u00e9 fronty, p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed milion\u016f voj\u00e1k\u016f v n\u011bkolika arm\u00e1d\u00e1ch paraleln\u011b se st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropou p\u0159es Francii a N\u011bmecko, odpov\u00eddalo vzorci n\u00edzk\u00e9ho rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k t\u00e9to historii bylo pro Severokorejce rozumn\u00e9 v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee MacArthur nikdy nerozd\u011bl\u00ed sv\u00e9 s\u00edly a nezah\u00e1j\u00ed oboj\u017eiveln\u00fd \u00fatok daleko za severokorejsk\u00fdmi liniemi.\u00a0To bylo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 riskantn\u00ed.\u00a0Inchon\u016fv koncept operac\u00ed tak\u00e9 nebyl v souladu s t\u00edm, jak byly americk\u00e9 s\u00edly rozm\u00edst\u011bny v ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u2013 ve v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch vyhran\u00fdch opot\u0159ebov\u00e1n\u00edm, nikoli man\u00e9vrem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u00fanoru 2022 se rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin rozhodl pro postupn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci\u201c na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Putin poslal m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 100 000 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f do zem\u011b velikosti Texasu, aby za\u00fato\u010dili v pln\u00e9m rozsahu.\u00a0Po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 15 letech, kdy se nepoda\u0159ilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Washington a \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1pad o odporu Moskvy v\u016f\u010di postupu NATO na v\u00fdchod, se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee Putin dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee okam\u017eit\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu a jeho spojenc\u016f v NATO by byla zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbou, dala by p\u0159ednost v\u00e1lce s nev\u00fdslovn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin se m\u00fdlil.\u00a0U\u010dinil fale\u0161n\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad zalo\u017een\u00fd na teorii racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volby.\u00a0Teorie racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volby se pokou\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddat lidsk\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee lid\u00e9 v podnik\u00e1n\u00ed, politice a ka\u017edodenn\u00edm \u017eivot\u011b jsou navykl\u00ed v rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 slou\u017e\u00ed jejich osobn\u00edmu blahu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m t\u00e9to teorie je, \u017ee lid\u00e9 nejsou racion\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti je lidsk\u00e1 mysl jakousi \u010dernou sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148kou.\u00a0D\u00e1 se pozorovat, co jde do \u010dern\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ky a jak\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed se odtud d\u011blaj\u00ed, ale vlastn\u00ed rozhodovac\u00ed proces, kter\u00fd se v \u010dern\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ce odehr\u00e1v\u00e1, je nepr\u016fhledn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

V mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztaz\u00edch a v\u00e1lce mus\u00ed ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed charakteristiky lidsk\u00e9 identity \u2013 historie, geografie, kultura, n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed, jazyk, rasa nebo etnicita \u2013 hr\u00e1t d\u016fle\u017eitou roli v jak\u00e9mkoli strategick\u00e9m hodnocen\u00ed.\u00a0MacArthur d\u00edky sv\u00e9 kultu\u0159e, zku\u0161enostem a charakteru riskoval.\u00a0Jak sv\u00fdm \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Peter Drucker, kultura je z\u00e1kladem lidsk\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu.\u00a0Tyto skute\u010dnosti pravideln\u011b vyvracej\u00ed nerealistick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vyvolan\u00e1 teori\u00ed racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volby.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto aby se Washington p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil k jednac\u00edmu stolu, obnovil opatrnost, kter\u00e1 v minulosti charakterizovala jedn\u00e1n\u00ed USA s Moskvou tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 rusk\u00e9mu jadern\u00e9mu arzen\u00e1lu.\u00a0Washingtonsk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti nerozum\u011bla ani Rusku, ani v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, se p\u0159ihl\u00e1sila k n\u00e1zoru zesnul\u00e9ho sen\u00e1tora Johna McCaina, \u017ee Rusko je \u201e\u010derpac\u00ed stanic\u00ed pro jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin nen\u00ed riskantn\u00ed.\u00a0Opustil v\u0161ak inkrementalismus a rychle p\u0159e\u0161el rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly na strategickou obranu, co\u017e je silov\u011b-ekonomick\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je minimalizovat rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a z\u00e1rove\u0148 maximalizovat ztr\u00e1ty Ukrajiny, dokud nebudou moci rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly op\u011bt operovat ofenzivn\u011b.\u00a0Zm\u011bna rusk\u00e9 strategie zafungovala.\u00a0I p\u0159es bezprecedentn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky modern\u00edch zbran\u00ed, pen\u011bz, zahrani\u010dn\u00edch bojovn\u00edk\u016f a z\u00e1sadn\u00edch zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly je z\u00e1stupce Washingtonu hotov\u00fd.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e9 nemocnice se to hem\u017e\u00ed zlomen\u00fdmi lidmi a na boji\u0161t\u00edch le\u017e\u00ed mrtv\u00ed Ukrajinci.\u00a0Kyjev je srde\u010dn\u00ed pacient, kter\u00fd pot\u0159ebuje podporu \u017eivota.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 strategie opot\u0159ebov\u00e1n\u00ed dos\u00e1hla pozoruhodn\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, ale tento \u00fasp\u011bch dnes \u010din\u00ed konflikt nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm od za\u010d\u00e1tku v \u00fanoru 2022. Pro\u010d?\u00a0Obrann\u00fdmi operacemi se v\u00e1lky nevyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed a Washington st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington zanedb\u00e1v\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ty Ukrajiny a zveli\u010duje ztr\u00e1ty Ruska.\u00a0D\u016fstojn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed se \u00fa\u010dastnili sch\u016fz\u00ed v Pentagonu, mi \u0159ekli, \u017ee mal\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na boji\u0161ti (kter\u00e1 jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 okam\u017eit\u011b zru\u0161ena) hraj\u00ed velkou roli v diskus\u00edch, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve \u010dty\u0159hv\u011bzdi\u010dkov\u00e9m velitelstv\u00ed, v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b, a jsou vedeny do Foggy Bottom.\u00a0Tyto zpr\u00e1vy jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nevyvratiteln\u00fd d\u016fkaz nevyhnuteln\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ukrajiny.\u00a0V tomto klimatu se d\u016fstojn\u00edci gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu zdr\u00e1haj\u00ed vyzdvihnout efektivn\u00ed v\u00fdkon rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy nebo dopad rostouc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia tento postoj posiluj\u00ed tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 a jejich ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou nefunk\u010dn\u00ed, ut\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed v korupci a setrva\u010dnosti a \u017ee Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t, pokud z\u00edsk\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed podporu.\u00a0Je tedy pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Washington a jeho spojenci budou nad\u00e1le dod\u00e1vat vybaven\u00ed a munici, i kdy\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ne v mno\u017estv\u00ed a kvalit\u011b ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Var\u0161ava, jej\u00ed\u017e veden\u00ed v protirusk\u00e9 k\u0159\u00ed\u017eov\u00e9 v\u00fdprav\u011b NATO je ve Washingtonu cen\u011bno, nach\u00e1z\u00ed \u00fat\u011bchu ve v\u00ed\u0159e ve vojenskou slabost Ruska.\u00a0Natolik, \u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Var\u0161ava je ochotna riskovat p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci s Moskvou.\u00a0Podle francouzsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f ve Var\u0161av\u011b, pokud by byly ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly zatla\u010deny, \u201ePol\u00e1ci by mohli pozd\u011bji v tomto roce pozvednout prvn\u00ed divizi slo\u017eenou z Pol\u00e1k\u016f, Balt\u016f a ur\u010dit\u00e9ho po\u010dtu Ukrajinc\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed Washington \u0161patn\u011b hodnot\u00ed Moskvu.\u00a0Rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed velitelsk\u00e9 org\u00e1ny mohly p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee akce Var\u0161avy odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011br\u016fm Washingtonu.\u00a0P\u0159\u00edkaz prezidenta Bidena roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it rizikov\u00fd plat na americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, kte\u0159\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b slou\u017e\u00ed (a nem\u011bli by b\u00fdt) na Ukrajin\u011b, tento n\u00e1zor jist\u011b posiluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee polsk\u00fd ocas chce vrt\u011bt americk\u00fdm psem.\u00a0Pol\u00e1ci v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee jejich vojensk\u00e1 intervence na historick\u00e9 hali\u010dsk\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b vyvol\u00e1 vojenskou reakci B\u011bloruska i Ruska, ale Var\u0161ava tak\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by letectvo a pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly Washingtonu v Evrop\u011b z\u016fstaly klidn\u00e9 na Ukrajin\u011b, v Rumunsku a na zbytku sv\u011btov\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e, zat\u00edmco polsk\u00e9 s\u00edly sv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed prohranou bitvu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka Ameriky s Ruskem ud\u011blala z Ukrajiny h\u0159bitov.\u00a0Podlehnut\u00ed polsk\u00e9 v\u00e1\u0161ni pro v\u00e1lku s Ruskem povzbuzuje Polsko, aby n\u00e1sledovalo ukrajinsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad.\u00a0Pouh\u00e1 my\u0161lenka mus\u00ed nechat Moskvu jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e nasadit ve\u0161kerou ruskou vojenskou s\u00edlu sou\u010dasn\u011b proti Ukrajin\u011b, ne\u017e se kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad dostane do region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Ud\u011blejte m\u00edr, vy hlup\u00e1ci, ne\u017e bude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Douglas MacGregor<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Inkrementalismus \u2013 tendence postupovat pomalu vp\u0159ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e podnikat odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 kroky \u2013 je typicky up\u0159ednost\u0148ov\u00e1n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[29,565,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33740"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}