{"id":33543,"date":"2023-08-05T01:09:25","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T23:09:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33543"},"modified":"2023-08-04T17:00:38","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T15:00:38","slug":"zbynek-fiala-strasidlo-deflace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/05\/zbynek-fiala-strasidlo-deflace\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Stra\u0161idlo deflace"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco u n\u00e1s pokra\u010duje dvoucifern\u00e1 inflace \u2013 ro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br m\u00e1 p\u0159es\u00e1hnout 11 procent \u2013 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b ceny v\u00fdrobc\u016f soustavn\u011b klesaj\u00ed, i kdy\u017e spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 to zat\u00edm nepoc\u00edtili. Mohlo by n\u00e1m to b\u00fdt jedno, kdyby to nebyl p\u0159edstihov\u00fd sign\u00e1l, co p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed stahuj\u00edc\u00ed se nov\u00e1 \u017eelezn\u00e1 opona pohlcuj\u00edc\u00ed d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna je dlouhodob\u011b ekonomicky nejdynami\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed sv\u011bta, ale te\u010f se to trochu zadrhlo. R\u016fstov\u00e1 tempa znovu klesaj\u00ed, v\u00a0prvn\u00edm pololet\u00ed u\u017e na 5,5 procenta. Je to v\u00edc ne\u017e kdekoliv jinde, ale na \u010c\u00ednu je to m\u00e1lo, proto\u017ee r\u016fst mus\u00ed obslou\u017eit i vysok\u00fd proud nov\u00fdch z\u00e1jemc\u016f o pracovn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. Extr\u00e9mn\u011b varovn\u00fd je proto fakt, \u017ee nezam\u011bstnanost mlad\u00fdch vysko\u010dila nad 20 procent a postihuje i \u010derstv\u00e9 absolventy vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol.<\/p>\n

Mohou to b\u00fdt probl\u00e9my obnovy, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna byla v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech opravdu v\u00a0t\u00edsni a mnoh\u00e9 z\u00a0toho pokra\u010duje. T\u0159i zlov\u011bstn\u00e9 sudi\u010dky, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed promlouvat do budoucnosti, se jmenuj\u00ed pandemie, klima a geopolitika. Probudit zemi s\u00a01,4 miliardou obyvatel z\u00a0ochromen\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00edho lockoutu za Covidu-19 nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9. Komplikuj\u00ed to katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky zm\u011bny klimatu, naposledy zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed povodn\u011b v\u00a0Pekingu a okoln\u00edch provinci\u00edch, a s\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e9 pokusy zablokovat obchodn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnu se \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdmi technologiemi i v\u0161\u00edm, co n\u011bjak p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k\u00a0jejich vzniku. P\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed m\u00e1 americk\u00fd prezident podepsat n\u011bkdy p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden. Fakticky t\u00edm spust\u00ed novou \u017eeleznou oponu.<\/p>\n

Tyto probl\u00e9my se na sebe vr\u0161\u00ed a projevuj\u00ed se zejm\u00e9na soustavn\u00fdm poklesem cen \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed na sebe nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed na zahu\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9m men\u0161\u00edm trhu. Americk\u00fd ekonom Stephen Roach z\u00a0Morgan Stanley tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je to sp\u00ed\u0161 d\u016fsledek obrovsk\u00e9 makroekonomick\u00e9 nerovnov\u00e1hy. Zat\u00edmco p\u0159\u00edjmy z\u00a0pr\u00e1ce v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b dorostly do 60 procent HDP (v \u010cesku je to o p\u011bt procentn\u00edch bod\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b), spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed se pod\u00edl\u00ed na HDP jen 38 procenty. Rozd\u00edl je d\u00e1n t\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159etina p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do \u00faspor.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0Americe je to opa\u010dn\u011b, v\u00edc se spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1 ne\u017e vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1, proto tam tak prudce nar\u016fstaj\u00ed zadlu\u017eenost obyvatelstva a st\u00e1tu spolu se schodky zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu. Roach je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee pokusy americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy tvrd\u011b p\u0159ibrzdit obchod s \u010c\u00ednou jsou hysterickou reakc\u00ed na tyto obchodn\u00ed schodky. Tak\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b doporu\u010duje klidn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakci a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159eby. Ob\u00e1v\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee americk\u00e9 kroky si \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o \u010d\u00ednskou odplatu.<\/p>\n

A na to taky do\u0161lo. Ve h\u0159e je i ta geopolitika, zejm\u00e9na strach Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna se sbl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed s\u00a0Tchajwanem a z\u00edsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0z\u00e1vod\u016fm TSCM, kde se vyr\u00e1b\u00ed snad dev\u011bt desetin sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce nejpokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00edch \u010dip\u016f. Tchajwansk\u00e9 z\u00e1vody p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed outsourcing americk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje slo\u017eit\u00fdch elektronick\u00fdch struktur, kter\u00e9 jsou uvnit\u0159 \u010dipu. Ameri\u010dan vymysl\u00ed a Tchajwanec vyrob\u00ed to, co by Ameri\u010dan s\u00e1m nedok\u00e1zal p\u0159ev\u00e9st do reality.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna zas ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 dev\u011bt desetin rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fdch kapacit pro kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly pro tuto v\u00fdrobu. USA jsou vysoce z\u00e1visl\u00e9 tak\u00e9 na dovozu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho galia a germania, bez kter\u00fdch tento polovodi\u010dov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl nem\u016f\u017ee existovat.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee je tu i druh\u00e1 strana mince, \u010dipy, jimi\u017e nakonec obchoduj\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 n\u011bjak\u00fd odbyt. Podle americk\u00e9ho oborov\u00e9ho sdru\u017een\u00ed Semiconductor Industry Association je \u010c\u00edna nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm trhem, kde tyto americk\u00e9 firmy z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed 36 procent sv\u00fdch tr\u017eeb. Boj\u00ed se, \u017ee je polo\u017e\u00ed, kdy\u017e o tohle p\u0159ijdou. Je to patov\u00e1 situace a Roachova \u00favaha o hysterick\u00fdch reakc\u00edch napov\u00edd\u00e1, pro\u010d se tyto vztahy vyv\u00edjej\u00ed nerozumn\u011b.<\/p>\n

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V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b je na okraji t\u011bchto probl\u00e9m\u016f, \u010c\u00edna ji neodsoudila, ale ani se do n\u00ed nezapojila. Vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k\u00a0pos\u00edlen\u00ed vztah\u016f s\u00a0Ruskem, co\u017e m\u00e1 podle analytik\u016f dlouhodob\u00fd strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam, proto\u017ee ekonomiky obou zem\u00ed maj\u00ed komplement\u00e1rn\u00ed charakter. Sp\u00ed\u0161e se dopl\u0148uj\u00ed, ne\u017e aby si konkurovaly. Rusku to pom\u00e1h\u00e1 obej\u00edt americk\u00e9 a evropsk\u00e9 sankce a \u010c\u00edn\u011b zas p\u0159esouvat trhy, kter\u00e9 m\u011bla \u0161krtit americk\u00e1 uz\u00e1v\u011bra.<\/p>\n

Sankce se skv\u011ble prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00a0hlavn\u00edm vys\u00edlac\u00edm \u010dase, ale historie potvrzuje, \u017ee m\u00edvaj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek. Pokud v\u00e1s n\u011bkdo zbav\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu na voln\u00fd trh, nemus\u00edte dodr\u017eovat jeho pravidla jako je st\u00e1tn\u00ed podpora, ochran\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed vlastnictv\u00ed, cokoliv. Na voln\u00e9m trhu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt docela t\u011b\u017eko, vl\u00e1dne tam ten nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a ostatn\u00ed v\u00a0jeho st\u00ednu se mus\u00ed podhazovat nebo krn\u00ed. Sankce proto mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00ednosem, proto\u017ee nab\u00edzej\u00ed \u00falevu od tohoto tlaku a fakticky usnad\u0148uj\u00ed doh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed ostatn\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Tak to funguje dlouhodob\u011b, ale co te\u010f? Plot, kter\u00fd spou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, m\u00e1 dv\u011b strany. My jsme na t\u00e9 druh\u00e9, ale taky za plotem. T\u011b\u017eko pochopit, pro\u010d se tak nad\u0161en\u011b pod\u00edl\u00edme na jeho spou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. I n\u00e1\u0161 trh se p\u0159ece zmen\u0161uje. Je to patrn\u00e9 na \u010d\u00edslech o nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zk\u00e1ch v\u00a0pr\u016fmyslu, kde jsou setrvale z\u00e1porn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla. Ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b obor\u016f kles\u00e1 tak\u00e9 p\u0159idan\u00e1 hodnota, s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fd v\u0161ak za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nar\u00e1\u017eet na v\u016fbec nejdrsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zm\u011bnu vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek reprezentovan\u00fdch n\u00e1stupem atraktivn\u00edch americk\u00fdch a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch elektrick\u00fdch aut.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o \u010distou ekonomiku, skl\u00edz\u00edme plody tvrdo\u0161\u00edjn\u00e9ho setrv\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0prav\u011bk\u00fdch p\u0159edstav\u00e1ch o konkurenceschopnosti, spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edch ve \u017ed\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed toho, co m\u00e1me, proto\u017ee investice jsou n\u00e1klady, a n\u00e1klady stoj\u00ed v\u00a0cest\u011b cenov\u00e9mu podb\u00edzen\u00ed. Extr\u00e9m t\u00e9to politiky jsme za\u017eili p\u0159ed deseti lety, kdy \u010cNB p\u0159idala i sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed kurzu koruny (\u201ekurzov\u00fd z\u00e1vazek\u201c).<\/p>\n

Vizitkou je \u010desk\u00e1 p\u0159ezam\u011bstnanost za nepatrn\u00e9 mzdy. Nejsou lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed by byli ochotni za mizern\u00fd pen\u00edz vlastn\u00edma rukama nahrazovat chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed modern\u00ed linky. Tak ty lidi dovezeme, t\u0159eba z\u00a0Asie, a je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l sraz\u00edme \u010deskou mzdovou \u00farove\u0148. Jen\u017ee n\u00edzk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy znamenaj\u00ed i n\u00edzkou kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu. Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed monopolizace \u010desk\u00e9ho trhu umo\u017e\u0148uje nasadit ceny v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e jinde a dr\u017eet je tam d\u00e9le, ale nikoliv v\u011b\u010dn\u011b. Co se stane, a\u017e lidem dojdou pen\u00edze?<\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da to m\u016f\u017ee jenom zhor\u0161it. Obrovsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zadlu\u017eenost sice vyhovuje neoliber\u00e1ln\u00edm strategi\u00edm, jak lidi p\u0159ipravit o ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby a prosadit jejich privatizaci, proto\u017ee st\u00e1t u\u017e je nedok\u00e1\u017ee financovat. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat, co se d\u011bje kolem po\u0161ty. Jen\u017ee my bychom te\u010f pot\u0159ebovali nasko\u010dit do rozjet\u00e9ho vlaku dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 revoluce, a to bez c\u00edlev\u011bdom\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed podpory prost\u011b nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9. Investice do vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, poradensk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, subvence technologi\u00ed a tr\u017en\u00ed podpory, to v\u0161echno jsou plenky, bez kter\u00fdch miminko nep\u0159e\u017eije.<\/p>\n

Deflace je situace, kdy je budoucnost zaml\u017een\u00e1 a v\u00fddaje se mus\u00ed odlo\u017eit, ne\u017e bude jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Dne\u0161n\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, kter\u00e9 si hraj\u00ed s\u00a0desetinami procenta nahoru \u010di dol\u016f, hled\u00ed do t\u00e9 mlhy. Pokud bude neregulovan\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh \u017ed\u00edmat lidi d\u00e9le, p\u0159ijdou o v\u00edc pen\u011bz, a pak do toho spadneme o to prud\u010deji. Pokud vl\u00e1da zachov\u00e1 bohorovnou lhostejnost k\u00a0tomu, co se v\u00a0ekonomice d\u011bje, okoln\u00ed sv\u011bt n\u00e1s prost\u011b semele. Je to p\u0159itom tvrd\u00e9 i pro ty, kdo um\u00ed, jak ukazuje sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je zat\u00edm zahled\u011bna jinam a d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost rozvojov\u00e9 pomoci Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, pro kter\u00e9 je zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl jedn\u00edm z\u00a0m\u00e1la obor\u016f, kdy se v\u00a0USA je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bco re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho vyr\u00e1b\u00ed. Americk\u00e9 st\u00edha\u010dky, do kter\u00fdch vraz\u00edme se v\u0161\u00edm v\u0161udy stovky miliard korun, nejsou ur\u010deny pro jadern\u00fd \u00fader na Moskvu, jak se domn\u00edval Vrabel a vyfasoval za to \u010dty\u0159m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednku. Jde o ty prachy, ne o ty letadla.<\/p>\n

Nikdo by p\u0159ece n\u011bco tak drah\u00e9ho nevyslal do opravdov\u00e9ho boje proti n\u011bkomu jin\u00e9mu, ne\u017e jsou pastevci velbloud\u016f. Leda\u017ee by posledn\u00ed bitva vzpl\u00e1la, ale pak je zas jedno, co tam vy\u0161lu. Tohle jsou letadla, kter\u00e1 maj\u00ed zdobit aerosalony a exhibice p\u0159i sv\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm odpoledni leteck\u00e9ho dne. Nikdo nestoj\u00ed o to, aby se vedle t\u011bchto z\u00e1b\u011br\u016f ukazovaly taky sest\u0159elen\u00e9 hromady roztrou\u0161en\u00e9ho plechu. To by se \u0161patn\u011b prod\u00e1valo. Proto se na Ukrajinu pos\u00edl\u00e1 star\u0161\u00ed \u0161rot, aby se neni\u010dily marketingov\u00e9 iluze, jak by to dopadlo, kdyby m\u011bli\u2026<\/p>\n

Zapla\u0165 dv\u011b procenta HDP a nebude\u0161 m\u00edt probl\u00e9my. Nezaplat\u00ed\u0161, p\u0159ijdou. To je podstata na\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. Span\u00ed n\u00e1m to nezlep\u0161\u00ed, je tu je\u0161t\u011b ta ekonomika.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f n\u00e1s dus\u00ed inflace, ale m\u016f\u017ee se to obr\u00e1tit, a bude to hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vzd\u00e1len\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a>
\n\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom<\/em><\/p>\n

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Zat\u00edmco u n\u00e1s pokra\u010duje dvoucifern\u00e1 inflace \u2013 ro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br m\u00e1 p\u0159es\u00e1hnout 11 procent \u2013 v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[30,59,1203,683,29],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33543"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33543"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33543\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}