{"id":33466,"date":"2023-08-04T01:01:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T23:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33466"},"modified":"2023-08-03T15:15:49","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T13:15:49","slug":"putin-pripravuje-na-ukrajine-jeste-vetsi-valku-zapad-zapomina-na-ruske-zdroje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/04\/putin-pripravuje-na-ukrajine-jeste-vetsi-valku-zapad-zapomina-na-ruske-zdroje\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin p\u0159ipravuje na Ukrajin\u011b je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Z\u00e1pad zapom\u00edn\u00e1 na rusk\u00e9 zdroje"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z\u00e1kon, kter\u00fd Kremlu umo\u017e\u0148uje vyslat do boje dal\u0161\u00ed statis\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f, odhaluje smutnou pravdu: Vladimir Putin zdaleka nehled\u00e1 cestu z v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, ale p\u0159ipravuje se na je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee mnoz\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b a na Z\u00e1pad\u011b cht\u011bj\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee rusk\u00fd prezident je zahn\u00e1n do kouta.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad zat\u00edm z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jednotn\u00fd v podpo\u0159e Kyjeva a toky modern\u00edch zbran\u00ed a pen\u011bz napom\u00e1haj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9mu v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9mu \u00fasil\u00ed.\u00a0Kone\u010dn\u011b, povst\u00e1n\u00ed zinscenovan\u00e9 v\u016fdcem Wagnerov\u00fdch \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f Jevgenijem Prigozhinem a viditeln\u00e9 boje o moc mezi nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ruskou arm\u00e1dou vzbuzuj\u00ed nad\u011bje, \u017ee se kremelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie hrout\u00ed.\u00a0Ale spojenci Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho zapom\u00ednaj\u00ed, jak\u00e9 zdroje Rusko m\u00e1 \u2013 m\u016f\u017ee si dovolit dlouhou v\u00e1lku, varuje politolog Alexandr Gabuev, \u0159editel Carnegie Eurasia Center v Berl\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory sankc\u00edm se v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 hru\u010f Kremlu st\u00e1le vyboul\u00ed, a to d\u00edky lo\u0148sk\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm zisk\u016fm a tak\u00e9 d\u00edky p\u0159izp\u016fsobivosti rusk\u00fdch export\u00e9r\u016f komodit, kte\u0159\u00ed si na\u0161li nov\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky a prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed platby z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti v j\u00fcanech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 tlaky zes\u00edlily, mohla by rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka d\u00e1le devalvovat rubl, co\u017e by voj\u00e1k\u016fm a pracovn\u00edk\u016fm obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu ulevilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o samotnou v\u00e1lku, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Putina ukrajinsk\u00e1 protiofenz\u00edva nezklamala.\u00a0I kdy\u017e Kyjev ud\u011bl\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed pokroky, Kreml je m\u016f\u017ee odm\u00edtnout jako do\u010dasn\u00e9.\u00a0Putin odhaduje, \u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u011b mobilizovateln\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla v Rusku je t\u0159ikr\u00e1t a\u017e \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na Ukrajin\u011b a jedin\u00fdm nal\u00e9hav\u00fdm \u00fakolem je vyu\u017e\u00edt tento zdroj podle libosti: mobilizovat mnohem v\u00edce lid\u00ed, vyzbrojit je, vycvi\u010dit a poslat do bitvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Horn\u00ed v\u011bkov\u00e1 hranice pro odvod se zv\u00fd\u0161ila z 27 na 30 let a v budoucnu by se mohla je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it.\u00a0Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed a masivn\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed investice do roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fdroby by m\u011bly Putinovi pomoci vybudovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a l\u00e9pe vybavenou arm\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paraleln\u00ed taktikou je \u0161krcen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ekonomiky.\u00a0S v\u011bdom\u00edm, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd rozpo\u010det z\u00e1vis\u00ed na podpo\u0159e od jej\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00edch spojenc\u016f, chce Kreml p\u0159ipravit Kyjev o v\u0161echny zdroje p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.\u00a0Moskva proto nejen odstoupila od dohody o obil\u00ed, kter\u00e1 umo\u017enila ukrajinsk\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd export p\u0159es \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e, ale tak\u00e9 zah\u00e1jila masivn\u00ed n\u00e1lety na ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, aby zni\u010dila jakoukoli \u0161anci na o\u017eiven\u00ed dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u00e1 logika je z\u00e1kladem rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1let\u016f na civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu: jejich c\u00edlem je u\u010dinit ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta neobyvateln\u00fdmi a br\u00e1nit rekonstrukci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychl\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed decimace ukrajinsk\u00e9 ekonomiky a ozbrojen\u00fdch sil povedou k rostouc\u00ed frustraci na Z\u00e1pad\u011b a poklesu materi\u00e1ln\u00ed podpory Kyjeva.\u00a0Aby tento proces urychlila a zlomila v\u016fli Z\u00e1padu, vyhro\u017euje Moskva eskalac\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO p\u0159es B\u011blorusko s pomoc\u00ed tam um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch Wagnerov\u00fdch \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin ud\u011blal mnoho chyb.\u00a0Ale dokud bude u moci, bude vyu\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 st\u00e1le obrovsk\u00e9 zdroje k realizaci sv\u00e9 posedlosti ni\u010dit a podma\u0148ovat si Ukrajinu.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u016fdci p\u0159em\u00edtaj\u00ed o opat\u0159en\u00edch na podporu Ukrajiny ve t\u0159et\u00edm roce t\u00e9to katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky, jak\u00e1koli dlouhodob\u00e1 strategie mus\u00ed br\u00e1t tuto realitu v \u00favahu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Z\u00e1kon, kter\u00fd Kremlu umo\u017e\u0148uje vyslat do boje dal\u0161\u00ed statis\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f, odhaluje smutnou pravdu: Vladimir Putin…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[102,22,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33466"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33466"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33468,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33466\/revisions\/33468"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}