{"id":33380,"date":"2023-08-02T05:35:55","date_gmt":"2023-08-02T03:35:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33380"},"modified":"2023-08-02T05:35:55","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T03:35:55","slug":"dmitrij-bavyrin-sojgova-navsteva-v-severni-koreji-vydesila-usa-z-deseti-duvodu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/02\/dmitrij-bavyrin-sojgova-navsteva-v-severni-koreji-vydesila-usa-z-deseti-duvodu\/","title":{"rendered":"Dmitrij Bavyrin: \u0160ojgova n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva v Severn\u00ed Koreji vyd\u011bsila USA z deseti d\u016fvod\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Reakce Washingtonu na n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu Sergeje \u0160ojgua v Severn\u00ed Koreji je st\u00e1le zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Podle americk\u00e9ho velvyslance p\u0159i OSN jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ipraveny poskytnout obyvatel\u016fm KLDR nezbytnou humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoc, pokud Pchjongjang otev\u0159e sv\u00e9 hranice. Pozoruhodn\u00fd v\u00fdrok \u2013 zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b ve sv\u011btle prvotn\u00ed reakce Ameri\u010dan\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201cRusko se zoufale sna\u017e\u00ed naj\u00edt zbran\u011b.\u201d T\u011bmito slovy komentoval americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u00a0 Anthony Blinken n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu\u00a0 rusk\u00e9ho ministra obrany Sergeje \u0160ojgua v Korejsk\u00e9 lidov\u011b demokratick\u00e9 republice.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1tn\u00ed tajemn\u00edk je nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed a p\u0159ekrucuje realitu. S ohledem na KLDR, pro\u010d bychom m\u011bli n\u011bco hledat? Pokud se zept\u00e1te, Korejci sami uk\u00e1\u017eou a provedou podrobnou prohl\u00eddku. Velmi r\u00e1di p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bchy sv\u00e9ho vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu, ale to mohou zat\u00edm jen p\u0159ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi nebo rusk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00e1tely.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee n\u00e1m Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 z\u00e1vid\u00ed \u2013 ale ne, nez\u00e1vid\u00ed n\u00e1m. Jsou zd\u011b\u0161eni. Samotn\u00e1 my\u0161lenka dod\u00e1vek zbran\u00ed z KLDR do Ruska je extr\u00e9mn\u011b d\u011bs\u00ed a maj\u00ed pro to nejm\u00e9n\u011b deset d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina prvn\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0Pokud zem\u011b NATO kriticky vy\u010derpaly sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby munice kv\u016fli dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m\u00a0 ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m Ukrajiny, pak Severn\u00ed Korea, jak se obecn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, m\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00fd a dokonce nena\u010dat\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lem \u2013 na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159epo\u010dtu na hlavu, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b. Jeden z dvaceti m\u00edstn\u00edch obyvatel, v\u010detn\u011b d\u011bt\u00ed a star\u00fdch lid\u00ed, slou\u017e\u00ed bu\u010f v arm\u00e1d\u011b, nebo je p\u0159id\u011blen k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu druhu polovojensk\u00e9 formace.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ed SVO a mobilizac\u00ed p\u0159evy\u0161ovaly pravideln\u00e9 jednotky KLDR Rusy, zaost\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v po\u010dtu pouze za arm\u00e1dami \u010c\u00edny, Indie a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. P\u0159itom ani ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, ani v Indii a dokonce ani v \u010c\u00edn\u011b nem\u00e1 arm\u00e1da takov\u00fd vliv na ve\u0159ejnou politiku jako v KLDR. V\u0161estrann\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost lid\u00ed na ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch a priorita z\u00e1jm\u016f arm\u00e1dy je jedn\u00edm z nosn\u00fdch pil\u00ed\u0159\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00ed ideologie \u010cu\u010dche.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em je suverenita na druhou, uzav\u0159en\u00fd cyklus, pln\u00e1 podpora \u017eivota. Ne v\u017edy to u spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed a dokonce i potravin vyjde. Ale pro pot\u0159eby arm\u00e1dy a obrany v\u016fbec ne\u0161et\u0159\u00ed \u2013 a hodn\u011b dok\u00e1zali, \u017eivot je donutil. St\u00e1le v\u0161ak mluv\u00edme o syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd vznikl a existoval v re\u017eimu hrozby jeho \u00fapln\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed, jako tomu bylo v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b\u00a0 SSSR. V tomto smyslu je vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed KLDR n\u011bkter\u00fdmi odborn\u00edky jako zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho druhu \u201eban\u00e1nov\u00e9 republiky\u201c fale\u0161n\u00e9:\u00a0\u201eban\u00e1nov\u00e9 republiky\u201c nevypou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed satelity, nemaj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 ponorky a nevyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervy KLDR jsou zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u2013 a mohou hr\u00e1t v\u00fdznamnou roli v historii konfrontace na\u00a0 Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 nabyla charakteru opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina.<\/strong>\u00a0Severn\u00ed Korea je v tomto konfliktu jednozna\u010dn\u00fdm spojencem Ruska. Kim Jo-\u010dong, \u010dlenka severokorejsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, v\u00fdznamn\u00fd stranick\u00fd ideolog, osobn\u00ed vyslankyn\u011b Kim \u010cong-una a hlavn\u011b jeho vlastn\u00ed sestra, prohl\u00e1sil: \u201cJsme s Ruskem ve stejn\u00e9m z\u00e1kopu.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pchjongjang samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed na\u0161\u00edm jedin\u00fdm spojencem, ale ostatn\u00ed spojenci nic takov\u00e9ho neuvedli. I b\u011blorusk\u00fd prezident je v\u00e1gn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010cili pokud to Rusko opravdu pot\u0159ebuje, tak mu ur\u010dit\u011b pom\u016f\u017ee jedna z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch arm\u00e1d planety. Kimovo slovo.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina.<\/strong>\u00a0Rysem severokorejsk\u00e9ho vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu jsou sov\u011btsk\u00e9 ko\u0159eny, a\u0165 u\u017e mluv\u00edme o r\u00e1\u017e\u00edch nebo \u0159\u00eddic\u00edch syst\u00e9mech. Ot\u00e1zku lze vzn\u00e9st nap\u0159\u00edklad o kvalit\u011b n\u00e1boj\u016f (nehled\u011b na to, \u017ee nekvalitn\u00ed v\u00fdrobky pro arm\u00e1dn\u00ed pot\u0159eby se v KLDR trestaj\u00ed, nutno myslet), ale v mnohem men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e o kompatibilit\u011b s rusk\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, jak siln\u011b ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 doufaj\u00ed v nedostatek gran\u00e1t\u016f, n\u00e1boj\u016f v rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b, by je tato okolnost m\u011bla rozru\u0161it.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina \u010dtvrt\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed infrastruktura pro vojenskou pomoc Rusku ze strany KLDR byla formalizov\u00e1na ji\u017e p\u0159ed rokem, kdy Pchjongjang ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uznal nez\u00e1vislost DLR a LLR, kter\u00e9 se pozd\u011bji staly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace (co\u017e tak\u00e9 uznal).<\/p>\n

Pokud tedy zem\u011b NATO dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed zbran\u011b Ukrajin\u011b pod z\u00e1minkou uzn\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti v r\u00e1mci hranic z roku 1991, pak m\u016f\u017ee KLDR dodat sv\u00e9 zbran\u011b do z\u00f3ny konfliktu s od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost Ruska v r\u00e1mci hranic roku 2022.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina p\u00e1t\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0Moskva m\u00e1 Pchjongjangu co nab\u00eddnout v\u00fdm\u011bnou za rakety nebo munici, pokud jsou skute\u010dn\u011b pot\u0159eba. KLDR je p\u0159i sv\u00fdch zahrani\u010dn\u011b-obchodn\u00edch aktivit\u00e1ch zvykl\u00e1 vyu\u017e\u00edvat barter a jako platebn\u00ed prost\u0159edek p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1 spoustu v\u011bc\u00ed \u2013 obil\u00ed, kovy, auta. Tedy to, na co je Rusko bohat\u00e9 a bohat\u00e9 bude i p\u0159es ekonomick\u00e9 sankce, kter\u00e9 jsou proti n\u011bmu zavedeny.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina \u0161est\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0V t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nebudou moci pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u016fj obl\u00edben\u00fd n\u00e1stroj proti KLDR \u2013 sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed sankce, proto\u017ee potenci\u00e1l i prim\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed proti Severn\u00ed Koreji je ji\u017e d\u00e1vno vy\u010derp\u00e1n. Ekonomika \u010du\u010dche, a\u0165 je jak\u00e1koli, nez\u00e1vis\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, a proto nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u201epotrest\u00e1na\u201c.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina sedm\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0USA nejsou schopny zablokovat hypotetickou vojenskou dohodu mezi Ruskem a Severn\u00ed Koreou jen proto, \u017ee na\u0161e zem\u011b spolu soused\u00ed. K tomu budou muset zv\u00fd\u0161it s\u00e1zky p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm raketov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00fazem\u00ed jadern\u00e9 mocnosti, a\u0165 u\u017e rusk\u00e9 nebo severokorejsk\u00e9. Tedy p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a prvn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Jadern\u00fd potenci\u00e1l po desetilet\u00ed zaji\u0161\u0165uje Ruskou federaci a KLDR proti vojensk\u00e9 agresi ze strany\u00a0 Ameriky. Bude tomu tak i nad\u00e1le.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina osm\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0Americk\u00e1 administrativa nen\u00ed v pozici, aby proti takov\u00e9mu obchodu pou\u017eila \u201emetodu aukce\u201c, kter\u00e1 fungovala v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. To je docela tradi\u010dn\u00ed taktika Kim\u016f \u2013 nejprve situaci vygradovat a pot\u00e9 deeskalovat v\u00fdm\u011bnou za obchodn\u00ed \u00fastupky.<\/p>\n

Zde je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee toho sou\u010dasn\u00e1 administrativa Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f nen\u00ed schopna, a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty u\u017e v z\u00e1sad\u011b ne. Takov\u00fd diplomatick\u00fd trik, kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed flexibilitu a hbitost, fyzicky nezvl\u00e1dne: Blinken kv\u016fli jeho extr\u00e9mn\u011b ideologick\u00fdm a dogmatick\u00fdm postoj\u016fm, Biden prost\u011b kv\u016fli sv\u00e9mu v\u011bku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina dev\u00e1t\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0Vytvo\u0159en\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b funguj\u00edc\u00ed obrann\u00e9 aliance mezi Moskvou a Pchjongjangem bude z\u00e1rove\u0148 osobn\u00edm selh\u00e1n\u00edm tandemu Biden-Blinken, proto\u017ee \u201eprobl\u00e9m Severn\u00ed Koreje a jej\u00edho raketov\u00e9ho programu\u201c byl p\u016fvodn\u011b prohl\u00e1\u0161en za jeho hlavn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u011b-politickou prioritu. Pak ale za\u010dalo SVO, priority se n\u00e1hle zm\u011bnily na konfrontaci s Ruskem a nyn\u00ed je situace takov\u00e1, \u017ee s\u00e1zka na tzv. protiofenz\u00edvu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny a nedostatek n\u00e1boj\u016f Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Rusk\u00e9 federace nefungovaly a \u201eprobl\u00e9m Severn\u00ed Koreje\u201c nabral ne\u010dekan\u00fd spad. V\u00fdsledkem je naprost\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed obou priorit.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina des\u00e1t\u00e1.<\/strong>\u00a0Washington v\u00ed, \u017ee povzbuzuj\u00edc\u00edm motivem veden\u00ed KLDR, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eit v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed \u00favahy, je p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed nasolit Americe, proto\u017ee Severn\u00ed Korea poci\u0165uje, \u017ee je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho odporu v\u016f\u010di Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm a chce v t\u00e9to konfrontaci sehr\u00e1t v\u00fdznamnou roli.\u00a0(Krom\u011b jin\u00e9ho tak\u00e9 pro obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed mrtv\u00fdch d\u00edky okupaci Amerikou Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje. I d\u00edky Korejsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Severn\u00ed Korea bojuje neust\u00e1le o sjednocen\u00ed obou dvou korejsk\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed. Je zde naprost\u00fd rozd\u00edl \u2013 Severn\u00ed Korea \u2013\u00a0 po\u010det obyvatel roste a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea m\u00e1 nejhor\u0161\u00ed ukazatel porodnosti na sv\u011bt\u011b \u2026 to vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o mnoh\u00e9m, ne? \u2013 pozn.p\u0159ekl.)<\/em><\/p>\n

Jak \u0159ekla Kim Jo \u010cong:\u00a0\u201cSv\u011bt bez Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f bude jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a m\u00edrumilovn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je nyn\u00ed.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ne \u017ee by v Rusku uva\u017eovali stejn\u011b. Ale proto\u017ee USA u\u010dinily aktivn\u00ed vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s na\u0161\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem normou, nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dnou mor\u00e1ln\u00ed povinnost se tomu vyh\u00fdbat.<\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u0159eklad Peter 008<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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Reakce Washingtonu na n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu Sergeje \u0160ojgua v Severn\u00ed Koreji je st\u00e1le zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Podle americk\u00e9ho velvyslance…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33073,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1644,502,22,2249,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33380"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33380\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}