{"id":33320,"date":"2023-08-02T01:03:28","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T23:03:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33320"},"modified":"2023-08-01T16:36:34","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T14:36:34","slug":"jp-morgan-predpovida-rekordni-ceny-zlata-pro-rok-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/08\/02\/jp-morgan-predpovida-rekordni-ceny-zlata-pro-rok-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"JP Morgan p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 rekordn\u00ed ceny zlata pro rok 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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JP Morgan p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee ceny zlata do konce roku dos\u00e1hnou 2 000 USD a v roce 2024 d\u00e1le vzrostou na rekordn\u00ed maximum.<\/p>\n

Greg Shearer, v\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0159editel Global Commodities Research v JP Morgan, ve sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed studii o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee cena zlata se bude ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2024 pohybovat v pr\u016fm\u011bru kolem 2 175 dolar\u016f za unci.\u00a0To by znamenalo n\u00e1r\u016fst o 11 % oproti sou\u010dasn\u00e9 cen\u011b.<\/p>\n

Shearer v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee cyklus zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu skon\u010d\u00ed po \u010dervencov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do poloviny roku 2024.\u00a0Pokud by americk\u00e1 ekonomika klesla do recese, \u017elut\u00fd kov by m\u011bl je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed r\u016fstov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l.\u00a0\u010c\u00edm hlub\u0161\u00ed bude recese, t\u00edm v\u00edce bude muset Fed sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, z \u010deho\u017e budou m\u00edt prosp\u011bch ceny zlata.<\/p>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee vlastnit zlato a m\u00edt dlouhodobou alokaci do zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra je vynikaj\u00edc\u00edm diverzifik\u00e1torem jak v pozdn\u00edm cyklu, tak v pr\u016fb\u011bhu n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 12-18 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

S r\u016fstem HDP ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed silou na trhu pr\u00e1ce se st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det expert\u016f domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee se USA vyma\u0148uj\u00ed z recese, p\u0159esto\u017ee Fed zv\u00fd\u0161il \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na 16let\u00e9 maximum.\u00a0P\u0159edseda Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Jerome Powell \u0159ekl, \u017ee ekonomov\u00e9 Fedu nyn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed r\u016fstu od konce roku, „ale vzhledem k odolnosti ekonomiky v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b ji\u017e neo\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed recesi.“<\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak \u010detn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se recese, v\u010detn\u011b 15 po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch pokles\u016f indexu kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f (nejprud\u0161\u00ed pokles v \u0159ad\u011b od let 2007\u20132008), p\u0159evr\u00e1cen\u00e9 v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky a rostouc\u00edho po\u010dtu bankrot\u016f spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Fed p\u0159ipravuje ekonomiku o \u017eivotod\u00e1rnou m\u00edzu o snadn\u00e9 pen\u00edze, hlubok\u00e1 recese se zd\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy.\u00a0Ekonomika byla postavena na um\u011ble n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch a kvantitativn\u00edm uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0V roce 2008 jsme vid\u011bli, co se stane s nadm\u011brn\u011b zadlu\u017eenou ekonomikou, kdy\u017e Fed vyt\u00e1hne snadn\u00e9 pen\u00edze.\u00a0Situace je dnes mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tehdy, s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zadlu\u017een\u00edm a v\u00edce \u0161patn\u00fdmi investicemi.<\/p>\n

Podle pololetn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy JP Morgan analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee ceny zlata budou v druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku v pr\u016fm\u011bru kolem 2 012 USD za unci.<\/p>\n

Trend pozorovan\u00fd v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku by tak pokra\u010doval.\u00a0Navzdory slab\u00e9mu \u010dervnu vzrostly ceny zlata za prvn\u00edch \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f roku o 5,4 procenta, co\u017e z n\u011bj d\u011bl\u00e1 druhou nejv\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed t\u0159\u00eddu aktiv po akci\u00edch na rozvinut\u00fdch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Shearer \u0159ekl, \u017ee mana\u017ee\u0159i fond\u016f letos zv\u00fd\u0161ili sv\u00e9 \u010dist\u00e9 dlouh\u00e9 pozice ve futures na zlato, ale obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le nen\u00ed p\u0159epln\u011bn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u0158ekl tak\u00e9, \u017ee institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1kupy podpo\u0159\u00ed silnou maloobchodn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku, proto\u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky pokra\u010duj\u00ed v diverzifikaci od dolaru a zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed se proti geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Existuje velk\u00e1 ochota nakupovat a diverzifikovat alokaci mimo m\u011bny.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b zlat\u00e9 rezervy glob\u00e1ln\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky vzrostly v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 o 228 tun.\u00a0To je o 38 % v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rekordn\u00ed hodnota z prvn\u00edho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2013.<\/p>\n

Podle pr\u016fzkumu centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank Gold Reserves Survey z roku 2023, kter\u00fd zve\u0159ejnila World Gold Council, 24 procent centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank pl\u00e1nuje v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 rezervy.\u00a0Sedmdes\u00e1t jedna procent dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se celkov\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 glob\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0To odpov\u00edd\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fstu o deset procentn\u00edch bod\u016f oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu roku.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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JP Morgan p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee ceny zlata do konce roku dos\u00e1hnou 2 000 USD a v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,528,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33320"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33320\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}