{"id":33157,"date":"2023-07-30T05:59:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T03:59:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=33157"},"modified":"2023-07-30T05:59:57","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T03:59:57","slug":"andrew-korybko-zde-je-navod-jak-polsko-lstive-prebira-kontrolu-nad-zapadni-ukrajinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/30\/andrew-korybko-zde-je-navod-jak-polsko-lstive-prebira-kontrolu-nad-zapadni-ukrajinou\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Zde je n\u00e1vod, jak Polsko lstiv\u011b p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 kontrolu nad z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajinou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jejich politick\u00e1 moc se upevnila loni v l\u00e9t\u011b pot\u00e9, co Rada ud\u011blila Pol\u00e1k\u016fm prakticky stejn\u00e1 pr\u00e1va jako Ukrajinc\u016fm v souladu se slibem, kter\u00fd Zelenskij dal Dudovi v kv\u011btnu 2022, zat\u00edmco ekonomick\u00fd aspekt byl pos\u00edlen otev\u0159en\u00edm prvn\u00ed\u00a0 kancel\u00e1\u0159 ve Lvov\u011b \u201eUkrajinsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby pro obnovu\u201c v polovin\u011b \u010dervence. \u201c\u00a0 Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed nen\u00ed ani pot\u0159eba, krom\u011b presti\u017ee, aby Polsko form\u00e1ln\u011b rozm\u00edstilo voj\u00e1ky na Ukrajinu, i kdy\u017e to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se tak nestane.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00e1 \u201eUkrajinsk\u00e1 rekonstruk\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eba\u201c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00e1 zmocn\u011bnkyn\u011b pro polsko-ukrajinskou rozvojovou spolupr\u00e1ci\u00a0<\/span>Jadwiga Emilewiczov\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>otev\u0159ela 17. \u010dervence ve Lvov\u011b prvn\u00ed var\u0161avskou kancel\u00e1\u0159 \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Ukrajinsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby pro obnovu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c (URS) ve Lvov\u011b na ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e1 mimo tyto dv\u011b zem\u011b p\u0159il\u00e1kala jen malou pozornost mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed.\u00a0Ve\u0159ejn\u011b financovan\u00e9 Polskie Radio informovalo o semin\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00fd ten den po\u0159\u00e1dala pod z\u00e1\u0161titou\u00a0<\/span>Var\u0161avsk\u00e9ho podnikov\u00e9ho institutu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/a>, stejn\u011b jako z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00edho dne v sousedn\u00edm hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b Voly\u0148sk\u00e9 oblasti Lucku\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Emilewicz ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee se brzy otev\u0159ou dal\u0161\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e jinde na Ukrajin\u011b a \u017ee \u201ep\u0159ipravujeme poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje pro polsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti\u201c.\u00a0Dodala, \u017ee \u201echceme b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edtomni na m\u00edst\u011b, abychom podpo\u0159ili polsk\u00e9 podnikatele p\u0159i navazov\u00e1n\u00ed kontakt\u016f a monitorovali investi\u010dn\u00ed pot\u0159eby…Vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00edme platformu pro dialog mezi polsk\u00fdmi a ukrajinsk\u00fdmi podniky a zapojujeme rozvojov\u00e9 instituce, stejn\u011b jako n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Oba semin\u00e1\u0159e se z\u00fa\u010dastnily vlivn\u00e9 osobnosti.\u00a0Na tom ve Lvov\u011b se z\u00fa\u010dastnil krajsk\u00fd hejtman Maxim Kozitsky, kter\u00fd se na sv\u00e9m kan\u00e1lu Telegram pod\u011blil o podrobnosti o aktivit\u00e1ch URS v tomto\u00a0<\/span>regionu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm se semin\u00e1\u0159e v Lucku z\u00fa\u010dastnil n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk vojensk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy sousedn\u00ed Rivnesk\u00e9 oblasti Vitalij Koval, kter\u00fd pozval polsk\u00e9 firmy, aby tam okam\u017eit\u011b investovaly.\u00a0Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee v\u0161echny t\u0159i regiony \u2013 Lvov, Voly\u0148 a Rivne \u2013 b\u00fdvaly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed meziv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho Polska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dva vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 v\u00fdvojov\u00e9 trendy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Aktivity URS v t\u011bchto \u010d\u00e1stech z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161ina Pol\u00e1k\u016f st\u00e1le pova\u017euje za ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 tis\u00edcilet\u00e9 civilizace, jsou p\u0159irozen\u00fdm vy\u00fast\u011bn\u00edm dvou vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00fdch v\u00fdvoj\u016f z kv\u011btna 2022. Polsk\u00fd prezident Andrzej Duda nav\u0161t\u00edvil Kyjev a promluvil v Rad\u011b na dne 22. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/sup>t\u00e9ho\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce, b\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby se on a jeho ukrajinsk\u00fd prot\u011bj\u0161ek Vladimir Zelenskyj zav\u00e1zali urychlit komplexn\u00ed integraci sv\u00fdch zem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dapln\u00e9 anglick\u00e9 p\u0159episy jejich projev\u016f si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst na p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0V kontextu t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy bylo hlavn\u00edm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm z Dudova projevu to, \u017ee se pod\u011blil o jejich pl\u00e1ny na zefektivn\u011bn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho silni\u010dn\u00edho, \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edho a dal\u0161\u00edho propojen\u00ed infrastruktury.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm Zelenskyj \u0159ekl, \u017ee vytvo\u0159\u00ed spole\u010dnou hrani\u010dn\u00ed a celn\u00ed kontrolu.\u00a0Prohl\u00e1sil tak\u00e9, \u017ee Kyjev poskytne Pol\u00e1k\u016fm v jeho zemi prakticky stejn\u00e1 pr\u00e1va, jako maj\u00ed Ukrajinci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc Dudovy pozn\u00e1mky o tom, \u017ee \u201epolsko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 hranice by m\u011bla spojovat, ne rozd\u011blovat\u201c a Zelensk\u00e9ho o tom, \u017ee \u201emezi n\u00e1mi by nem\u011bly b\u00fdt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 hranice nebo bari\u00e9ry\u201c, siln\u011b nazna\u010dovaly z\u00e1m\u011br nakonec se slou\u010dit do de facto konfederace, jak bylo hodnoceno v tomto anal\u00fdza v t\u00e9 dob\u011b\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edho dne, 23. kv\u011btna 2022, se Zelenskyj virtu\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00fa\u010dastnil leto\u0161n\u00edho\u00a0<\/span>Sv\u011btov\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho f\u00f3ra\u00a0<\/span><\/a>(WEF) v Davosu a p\u0159ednesl projev, kter\u00fd si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v pln\u00e9m zn\u011bn\u00ed v angli\u010dtin\u011b na jeho ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, \u017ee ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee \u201enab\u00edz\u00edme speci\u00e1ln\u00ed – historicky v\u00fdznamn\u00fd – model rekonstrukce.\u00a0Kdy\u017e ka\u017ed\u00e1 z partnersk\u00fdch zem\u00ed nebo partnersk\u00fdch m\u011bst nebo partnersk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed bude m\u00edt p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost \u2013 historickou \u2013 p\u0159evz\u00edt patron\u00e1t nad ur\u010dit\u00fdm regionem Ukrajiny, m\u011bstem, komunitou nebo pr\u016fmyslem.\u201c\u00a0Kyjev v podstat\u011b pl\u00e1nuje oplatit sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dce t\u00edm, \u017ee jim poskytne pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 privilegia v jejich preferovan\u00fdch regionech, co\u017e jsou v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Polska \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve ovl\u00e1dalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdokonalov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f Konfederace De Facto<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto dva vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti z kv\u011btna 2022 p\u0159\u00edmo vedly k tomu, \u017ee Polsko o 14 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji otev\u0159elo svou prvn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 URS ve Lvov\u011b.\u00a0Bylo tedy dosa\u017eeno hmatateln\u00e9ho pokroku v lehce maskovan\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech jejich v\u016fdc\u016f slou\u010dit se do de facto konfederace prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho \u2013 historicky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho \u2013 modelu\u201c, kter\u00fd Zelenskij popsal b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho projevu na WEF.\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee Kyjev tehdy ud\u011blil Polsku \u201ez\u00e1\u0161titu\u201c nad z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajinou, Var\u0161av\u011b a\u017e dosud trvalo, ne\u017e spustila souvisej\u00edc\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd mechanismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed lze vysv\u011btlit pot\u0159ebou prov\u00e9st aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed studie a spojit v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany, aby se po otev\u0159en\u00ed prvn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e URS mohlo v\u0161e pohybovat zrychlen\u00fdm tempem.\u00a0Kozitsk\u00e9ho d\u0159\u00edve citovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek Telegram se dotkl t\u0159\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch infrastrukturn\u00edch projekt\u016f, kter\u00e9 prosazuj\u00ed Dudovu vizi zefektivn\u011bn\u00ed polsko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 konektivity.\u00a0Ve spojen\u00ed s pl\u00e1ny na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed sd\u00edlen\u00e9ho celn\u00edho prostoru se to v podstat\u011b rovn\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e9mu rozm\u011bru jejich de facto konfederace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 pomoc a z\u00e1ruka bezpe\u010dnosti po\u017eaduje<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed aspekt t\u011bchto pl\u00e1n\u016f se tak\u00e9 posouv\u00e1 kup\u0159edu.\u00a0Polsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed v b\u0159eznu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Var\u0161ava poskytla Ukrajin\u011b v roce 2022 vojenskou pomoc\u00a0<\/span>v hodnot\u011b\u00a0<\/a><\/span>zhruba 6,2 miliardy eur\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e z Polska ud\u011blalo t\u0159et\u00edho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho st\u00e1tu na\u00a0<\/span>tamn\u00ed \u00farovni mezi\u00a0NATO\u00a0<\/a><\/span>a Ruskem .\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Zpr\u00e1vy o polsk\u00fdch \u017eold\u00e1c\u00edch bojuj\u00edc\u00edch o Kyjev se tak\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159ily od za\u010d\u00e1tku rusk\u00e9\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace\u00a0<\/a>a \u201e\u00a0Polsk\u00fd dobrovolnick\u00fd sbor\u00a0<\/a>\u201c se dokonce v kv\u011btnu zaslou\u017eil o n\u00e1let na ruskou B\u011blgorodskou oblast.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opakovan\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v\u00fdzvy\u00a0<\/a>Polska\u00a0k \u201ebezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm z\u00e1ruk\u00e1m\u201c pro Ukrajinu by mohly poslou\u017eit jako spojovac\u00ed dr\u00e1t k tomu, aby tam\u00a0form\u00e1ln\u011b rozm\u00edstila sv\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly\u00a0<\/a>v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee budou roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159eny, a\u0165 u\u017e multilater\u00e1ln\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fa\u010dasti Var\u0161avy v tomto sch\u00e9matu, nebo bilater\u00e1ln\u011b s Kyjevem, i kdy\u017e je dos\u00e1hl v tajnosti.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va Politico\u00a0<\/a>z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho listopadu o bezprecedentn\u00edm nahromad\u011bn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy v Polsku nazna\u010duje, \u017ee pl\u00e1nuje m\u00edt nadbyte\u010dnou kapacitu pot\u0159ebnou pro rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed nasazen\u00ed n\u011bkdy v budoucnu. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sm\u011brem ke konven\u010dn\u00ed polsk\u00e9 intervenci na Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jej\u00ed v\u00fddaje na obranu budou zv\u00fd\u0161eny na 5 % HDP, do roku 2035 bude m\u00edt 300 000 aktivn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f a nakupuje miliardy modern\u00edho vybaven\u00ed z USA a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje.\u00a0Polsko je \u010dlenem NATO s\u00a0<\/span>garanc\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obrany podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ze strany americk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 supervelmoci, tak\u017ee v\u0161echny tyto kroky jsou p\u0159ehnan\u00e9, pokud se Var\u0161ava cht\u011bla pouze chr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed spekulativn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm \u00fatokem.\u00a0Toto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Polsko se skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipravuje na konven\u010dn\u00ed vojenskou intervenci na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e to bude trvat je\u0161t\u011b mnoho let, ne\u017e dokon\u010d\u00ed sv\u00e9 ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Polsko m\u016f\u017ee teoreticky rozm\u00edstit v zahrani\u010d\u00ed cokoliv, co je moment\u00e1ln\u011b dostupn\u00e9 doma, ani\u017e by se muselo b\u00e1t, \u017ee Rusko za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed, proto\u017ee jadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk USA od toho odrazuje.\u00a0 Rusk\u00e9 a b\u011blorusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed berou tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, jak dokazuj\u00ed jejich z\u00e1stupci na konci \u010dervence jen n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pot\u00e9, co Polsko 17. dne\u00a0<\/span>toho\u00a0<\/span><\/sup>m\u011bs\u00edce otev\u0159elo svou prvn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 URS ve Lvov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko a B\u011blorusko varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed polsk\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny pro Ukrajinu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160\u00e9f rusk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby Sergej Nary\u0161kin varoval p\u0159ed hromad\u011bn\u00edm arm\u00e1dy Polska pobl\u00ed\u017e ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic 21. \u010dervence b\u011bhem zased\u00e1n\u00ed Rady bezpe\u010dnosti, jeho\u017e p\u0159epis v angli\u010dtin\u011b si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v pln\u00e9m zn\u011bn\u00ed na ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Kremlu\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Putin odhalil polsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed pl\u00e1ny ve snaze je odstra\u0161it\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, ale tak\u00e9 \u0159ekl, \u017ee \u201ePokud se [Kyjev] chce [[s]] n\u011b\u010deho vzd\u00e1t nebo prodat (Polsku), aby zaplatil sv\u00fdm \u0161\u00e9f\u016fm, jak to obvykle d\u011blaj\u00ed zr\u00e1dci, to je jejich v\u011bc.\u00a0Nebudeme zasahovat.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho jedinou \u010dervenou lini\u00ed v tomto ohledu je, aby Polsko neza\u00fato\u010dilo na B\u011blorusko, proto\u017ee \u201eby to znamenalo zah\u00e1jen\u00ed agrese proti Rusk\u00e9 federaci.\u00a0Odpov\u00edme na to v\u0161emi prost\u0159edky, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1me k dispozici.“\u00a0Pokud jde o tohoto \u010dlena svazov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, prezident Alexandr Luka\u0161enko nav\u0161t\u00edvil Petrohrad o dva dny pozd\u011bji, 23. \u010dervence, co\u017e byl necel\u00fd t\u00fdden pot\u00e9, co Polsko otev\u0159elo svou prvn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159 URS.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco tam byl, tak\u00e9 zazvonil na poplach ohledn\u011b pl\u00e1n\u016f Polska v pozn\u00e1mk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst na ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Kremlu\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011blorusk\u00fd v\u016fdce se na tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 c\u00edtil jinak ne\u017e jeho rusk\u00fd prot\u011bj\u0161ek, proto\u017ee jej ozna\u010dil za \u201enep\u0159ijateln\u00fd\u201c kv\u016fli bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozb\u011b, kterou by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b mohl p\u0159edstavovat pro ji\u017en\u00ed hranice st\u00e1tu Unie.\u00a0Odhl\u00e9dneme-li od jejich rozd\u00edln\u00fdch n\u00e1zor\u016f, tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 a b\u011blorusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Polsko by mohlo brzy zah\u00e1jit konven\u010dn\u00ed vojenskou intervenci na Ukrajin\u011b, aby doplnilo svou ekonomickou kontrolu nad z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u00e9to zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1minkou, kterou by Polsko mohlo vyu\u017e\u00edt k realizaci sv\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>hegemonick\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pl\u00e1n\u016f\u00a0<\/a>, by mohl b\u00fdt rusk\u00fd pr\u016flom p\u0159es Kontaktn\u00ed linii nebo \u00fatok pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou proti polsk\u00fdm projekt\u016fm na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 na\u00a0sv\u011bdom\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00fd Wagner\u00a0<\/a>, a\u010dkoli jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 i jin\u00e9 \u201espou\u0161t\u011bc\u00ed ud\u00e1losti\u201c.\u00a0Existuje dokonce mo\u017enost, \u017ee by Kyjev mohl otev\u0159en\u011b vyzvat k t\u00e9to intervenci b\u011bhem nebo po\u00a0zd\u00e1nliv\u011b\u00a0<\/a>nevyhnuteln\u00fdch\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edch anebo m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovorech s Ruskem jako sou\u010d\u00e1st bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed nebo multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ebezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 my\u0161lenky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9m stavu Polsko ji\u017e lstiv\u011b ovl\u00e1dlo z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajinu, ani\u017e by muselo vyst\u0159elit.\u00a0Jej\u00ed politick\u00e1 moc se upevnila loni v l\u00e9t\u011b pot\u00e9, co Rada ud\u011blila Pol\u00e1k\u016fm\u00a0<\/span>prakticky stejn\u00e1 pr\u00e1va\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jako Ukrajinc\u016fm v souladu se slibem, kter\u00fd Zelenskij dal Dudovi v kv\u011btnu 2022, zat\u00edmco ekonomick\u00fd aspekt byl pokro\u010dil v polovin\u011b \u010dervence otev\u0159en\u00edm prvn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e URA ve Lvov\u011b.\u00a0 Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed nen\u00ed ani pot\u0159eba, krom\u011b presti\u017ee, aby Polsko form\u00e1ln\u011b rozm\u00edstilo voj\u00e1ky na Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu by se to mohlo nakonec st\u00e1t, jednak proto, \u017ee by to mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it vyhl\u00eddky vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strany ve volb\u00e1ch p\u0159ed leto\u0161n\u00edmi podzimn\u00edmi volbami, a tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee by to sv\u011btu uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee Polsko \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b obnovuje sv\u00e9 dlouho ztracen\u00e9 status velmoci.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee form\u00e1ln\u00ed integrace z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajiny do Polska nen\u00ed hotov\u00e1 v\u011bc, i kdyby k tomu do\u0161lo, proto\u017ee by to riskovalo vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed intenzivn\u00edho pobou\u0159en\u00ed nacionalistick\u00fdch sil na obou stran\u00e1ch hranice.<\/span><\/p>\n

S ohledem na tyto obavy, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a dokonce latentn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed d\u016fsledky, je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 jednoho dne formalizace sou\u010dasn\u00e9 de facto polsko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 konfederace mnohem realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kdyby si Var\u0161ava ukousla z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9to b\u00fdval\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 republiky.\u00a0T\u00edm by se dos\u00e1hlo stejn\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho c\u00edle, kter\u00fdm je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed polsk\u00e9 \u201esf\u00e9ry vlivu\u201c na \u010d\u00e1st jeho b\u00fdval\u00e9ho Commonwealthu, ani\u017e by riskovali n\u011bjakou v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zp\u011btnou r\u00e1nu.\u00a0Po pravd\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nevyhnuteln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko<\/a><\/p>\n

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Jejich politick\u00e1 moc se upevnila loni v l\u00e9t\u011b pot\u00e9, co Rada ud\u011blila Pol\u00e1k\u016fm prakticky stejn\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,31,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33157"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}