{"id":32496,"date":"2023-07-21T01:08:12","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T23:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=32496"},"modified":"2023-07-20T17:10:11","modified_gmt":"2023-07-20T15:10:11","slug":"studie-soudneho-dne-neni-to-klimaticka-apokalypsa-ktera-vyhladi-lidstvo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/21\/studie-soudneho-dne-neni-to-klimaticka-apokalypsa-ktera-vyhladi-lidstvo\/","title":{"rendered":"Studie soudn\u00e9ho dne: Nen\u00ed to klimatick\u00e1 apokalypsa, kter\u00e1 vyhlad\u00ed lidstvo"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u0161ichni zem\u0159eme!\u00a0Fantazie o soudn\u00e9m dni v sou\u010dasnosti za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed boom d\u00edky zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m o katastrof\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 se na n\u00e1s neust\u00e1le val\u00ed.\u00a0Takzvan\u00ed experti a prognostici nyn\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edtali\u00a0<\/span>riziko vyhynut\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0lidstva do roku 2100 a identifikovali spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d mo\u017en\u00e9 nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed apokalypsy.\u00a0P\u0159ekvapen\u00ed: Nen\u00ed to zm\u011bna klimatu, co n\u00e1s zabije.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho je um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence ozna\u010dena za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbu pro lidstvo.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle kuri\u00f3zn\u00ed \u201estudie\u201c americk\u00e9ho institutu pro v\u00fdzkum p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed je riziko konce sv\u011bta do roku 2100 mezi 1 a 6 procenty.\u00a0Do t\u00e9 doby se ned\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat klimatick\u00e1 apokalypsa, proto\u017ee jin\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e konce sv\u011bta jsou pr\u00fd mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm pro vyhuben\u00ed lidstva je tedy um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, pokud by se vymkla kontrole.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e1 studie m\u00e1 n\u00e1zev \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Progn\u00f3zov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0existen\u010dn\u00edch rizik\u201c.\u00a0\u00dadaje k tomu poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z diskusn\u00ed sout\u011b\u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u011b pro tuto studii, kter\u00e1 prob\u00edhala od \u010dervna do \u0159\u00edjna 2022.\u00a0Tento turnaj se naz\u00fdval Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) a byl navr\u017een tak, aby prozkoumal potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozby pro lidstvo v tomto stolet\u00ed.\u00a0\u201eTurnaj\u201c samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zn\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e jako z\u00e1bavn\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost \u2013 tak\u017ee o smyslu a nesmyslnosti cel\u00e9 v\u011bci se jist\u011b m\u016f\u017eete dohadovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edmi t\u00e9maty byla um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence, pandemie, p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed katastrofy (klima) a jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.\u00a0<\/span>V sout\u011b\u017ei by se m\u011bly r\u016fzn\u00e9 expertn\u00ed skupiny a tzv. superprognostici \u010di superprognostici navz\u00e1jem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit o sv\u00e9m hodnocen\u00ed rizik.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Term\u00edn super-prognostik se vrac\u00ed k psychologovi Philipu E. Tetlockovi, kter\u00fd tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee objevil, \u017ee existuj\u00ed lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b p\u0159esn\u00ed, pokud jde o p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.\u00a0P\u0159es m\u011bs\u00edce diskus\u00ed se b\u011bhem sout\u011b\u017ee zm\u011bnilo jen m\u00e1lo n\u00e1zor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

AI jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Ob\u011b skupiny do\u0161ly k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed pro lidstvo \u010d\u00edh\u00e1 z nekontrolovateln\u00e9 um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 proti lidem.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Odborn\u00edci vid\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee p\u0159esn\u011b to se stane do roku 2100 na 2 procenta, superprognostici na 0,38 procenta.\u00a0Sami odborn\u00edci z oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence dokonce ohodnotili riziko na 3 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Odborn\u00edci odhaduj\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na 0,19 procenta, superprognostici na 0,074 procenta a vojen\u0161t\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 na 0,55 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed katastrofou, kter\u00e1 by mohla v\u00e9st k vyhuben\u00ed lidstva, by byl nap\u0159\u00edklad dopad asteroidu nebo komety, obrovsk\u00e1 slune\u010dn\u00ed bou\u0159e nebo v\u00fdbuch hv\u011bzd.\u00a0V\u0161ichni odborn\u00edci odhaduj\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost takov\u00e9 katastrofy na 0,004 procenta a superprognostici na 0,0043 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, \u017ee by lidstvo mohlo b\u00fdt vyhubeno \u010dlov\u011bkem vytvo\u0159en\u00fdm patogenem, je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e riziko, \u017ee bude vyhubeno p\u0159irozen\u00fdm patogenem.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Odborn\u00edci vid\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost toho na 0,1 procenta, zat\u00edmco superprognostici to vid\u00ed jen na 0,01 procenta.\u00a0U odborn\u00edk\u016f z l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 \u010di v\u011bdeck\u00e9 oblasti je riziko dokonce 1,0 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naproti tomu u p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho patogenu je riziko 0,008 procenta pro odborn\u00edky, 0,0018 procenta pro superprognostiky a 0,01 procenta pro l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 a v\u011bdeck\u00e9 odborn\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b odborn\u00edci odhaduj\u00ed riziko vyhynut\u00ed do roku 2100 na 6 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco superprognostici odhaduj\u00ed 1 procento.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledky studie ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee takzvan\u00ed experti hodnotili rizika v\u017edy v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e superprognostici.\u00a0Odborn\u00edci s odborn\u00fdmi znalostmi v p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 oblasti posuzovan\u00e9ho rizika tak\u00e9 v\u017edy odhadovali pravd\u011bpodobnost vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nespecializovan\u00ed kolegov\u00e9.\u00a0(Dalo by se tak\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci: Ka\u017ed\u00fd pova\u017euje sv\u016fj obor za zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd pro dal\u0161\u00ed rozvoj lidstva.)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 klimatick\u00e1 apokalypsa<\/span><\/h3>\n

V\u00fdsledky studie by mohly klimatick\u00e9 apokalyptiky p\u0159ekvapit, nebo\u0165 se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v tomto stolet\u00ed nebudeme muset sho\u0159et v pekeln\u00e9m ohni (\u00fadajn\u011b zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bkem) glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>M\u00edsto toho je nyn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence varov\u00e1na jako \u201eriziko vyhynut\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0Koho v t\u00e9to souvislosti nenapadnou hned filmy o Termin\u00e1torovi, v nich\u017e stroje uchv\u00e1tily moc a zotro\u010dily lidi, jejich tv\u016frce?\u00a0Dojde k tomu n\u011bkdy?\u00a0Proroctv\u00ed o konci sv\u011bta u\u017e bylo dost, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 se zat\u00edm nenaplnilo…<\/span><\/p>\n

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V\u0161ichni zem\u0159eme!\u00a0Fantazie o soudn\u00e9m dni v sou\u010dasnosti za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed boom d\u00edky zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m o katastrof\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32497,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3101,2421,276,2194],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32496"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32496"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32496\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32498,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32496\/revisions\/32498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}