{"id":32358,"date":"2023-07-19T01:02:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T23:02:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=32358"},"modified":"2023-07-18T17:17:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T15:17:39","slug":"ekonomicky-a-demograficky-pokles-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/19\/ekonomicky-a-demograficky-pokles-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomick\u00fd a demografick\u00fd pokles Ukrajiny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k v\u00edce ne\u017e rok trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b a z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm proti Rusku se pozornost mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed a odborn\u00edk\u016f soust\u0159ed\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b na ruskou stranu.\u00a0O skute\u010dn\u00fdch pom\u011brech na Ukrajin\u011b se naproti tomu z\u00e1padn\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed mainstream dosud jen z\u0159\u00eddka nebo st\u011b\u017e\u00ed podrobn\u011b zab\u00fdval.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v t\u00e9to krizov\u00e9 zemi je znepokojiv\u00fd, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o obyvatelstvo a hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.\u00a0Proto\u017ee tyto oblasti jsou v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b na \u00fastupu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V z\u00e1sad\u011b je t\u0159eba zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee tento pokles neza\u010dal ruskou invaz\u00ed v roce 2022, ale mnohem d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0Ji\u017e s rozpadem Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu na po\u010d\u00e1tku 90. let se uk\u00e1zaly prvn\u00ed alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed negativn\u00ed jevy \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v ekonomice a v demografii \u2013, kter\u00e9 se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let k nelibosti Ukrajinc\u016f st\u00e1le zhor\u0161ovaly.\u00a0V roce 2014 se v\u0161ak l\u00e9ta trvaj\u00edc\u00ed negativn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v obou oblastech mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il po nov\u00e9m ukrajinsk\u00e9m veden\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se dostalo k moci po krvav\u00e9m pu\u010di v Kyjev\u011b v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tzv. \u201eEuromajdanu\u201c. \u201c, rozhodl se \u201ej\u00edt cestou do Evropy\u201c, a\u0165 se d\u011bje, co se d\u011bje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ve sv\u00e9m ne\u00fanavn\u00e9m sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed k \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU a NATO otev\u0159en\u011b ignorovala z\u00e1jmy sv\u00e9ho lidu, co\u017e v pr\u016fb\u011bhu postmajdansk\u00e9ho\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdvoje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0vedlo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 okam\u017eit\u011b ke krvav\u00e9mu nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Proto\u017ee u\u017e po p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vklouzla na Donbass krvav\u00e1 ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 si podle OSN vy\u017e\u00e1dala nejm\u00e9n\u011b\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>13 000 ob\u011bt\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 ekonomika se nav\u00edc po \u201eeuromajdanu\u201c zhroutila na polovinu a zadlu\u017eila se.\u00a0Od t\u00e9 doby je mimo jin\u00e9 ovl\u00e1d\u00e1na dluhovou politikou MMF\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>a<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0Sv\u011btov\u00e9\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>banky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 USA \u00a0a l\u00e9ta balancuje na pokraji bankrotu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00ed integrace\u201c dos\u00e1hla prozat\u00edm nejsmutn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho vrcholu vojensk\u00fdm konfliktem s Ruskem, v jeho\u017e d\u016fsledku ztratila Ukrajina podle odhad\u016f ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e 200 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f a v\u00edce ne\u017e 25 procent sv\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0Uv\u00e1d\u00ed se, \u017ee k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni opustilo svou zemi v\u00edce ne\u017e 13 milion\u016f Ukrajinc\u016f \u2013 asi\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>p\u011bt<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0milion\u016f v Rusku a\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>osm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0milion\u016f v EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Demografick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o ukrajinsk\u00e9 uprchl\u00edky, lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se jich velmi mnoho nemus\u00ed vr\u00e1tit v\u016fbec a rad\u011bji se usad\u00ed v N\u011bmecku, Francii nebo jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch EU.\u00a0Nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm, \u017ee miliony ukrajinsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f by rad\u011bji \u017eily v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, ne\u017e aby se vr\u00e1tily do sv\u00e9 vlasti.\u00a0Proto\u017ee p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm od \u201eeuromajdanu\u201c je skute\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem tzv. \u201eevropsk\u00e9 integrace\u201c pro velkou \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00e9 populace n\u011bjak se dostat do EU a z\u016fstat tam.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z hlediska demografie jsou v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edliv uprchl\u00edk\u016f do zahrani\u010d\u00ed a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty jen sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho a extr\u00e9mn\u011b negativn\u00edho demografick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00fd zemi v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b p\u0159ivedl na pokraj kolapsu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne v\u017edy tomu tak v\u0161ak bylo.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad ukrajinsk\u00e1 populace za\u017eila neb\u00fdval\u00fd r\u016fst v desetilet\u00edch po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e1 dos\u00e1hla vrcholu 52 milion\u016f v roce 1993 \u2013 n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es rok po rozpadu SSSR \u2013 p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se prakticky urychlila v d\u016fsledku ukrajinsk\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti.\u00a0Podle posledn\u00edho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed lidu<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00fd prob\u011bhl elektronicky v roce 2020, p\u0159ed t\u0159emi lety m\u011bla b\u00fdval\u00e1 sov\u011btsk\u00e1 republika pouh\u00fdch 37 milion\u016f obyvatel, co\u017e je pokles o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 30 procent.\u00a0Podle odhad\u016f m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed Ukrajina m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 35 milion\u016f obyvatel.\u00a0Alespo\u0148 to je pom\u011brn\u011b optimistick\u00fd odhad vzhledem k vysok\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti, n\u00edzk\u00e9 porodnosti, emigraci a ukrajinsk\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm ob\u011btem.\u00a0Ale kdy\u017e te\u010f p\u0159id\u00e1te po\u010det uprchl\u00edk\u016f, pak se po\u010det obyvatel na Ukrajin\u011b ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farovn\u00ed pozdn\u00edho Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu ve skute\u010dnosti sn\u00ed\u017eil na polovinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed katastrofu lze spat\u0159ovat tak\u00e9 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ve v\u011bkov\u00e9 struktu\u0159e obyvatelstva, kde\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>pod\u00edl mlad\u0161\u00edch v\u011bkov\u00fdch skupin<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0v minulosti trvale klesal a nyn\u00ed je znepokojiv\u011b hluboko pod \u00farovn\u00ed 20 a\u017e 25 let a 25 a\u017e 30 let. ro\u010dn\u00edk\u016f jin\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny.\u00a0Pod\u00edl prvn\u00ed v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny dokonce od roku 2021 klesl o v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu, co\u017e je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zp\u016fsobeno p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ztr\u00e1tami ve v\u00e1lce a uprchl\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>statistick\u00e9ho<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0port\u00e1lu Population Pyramid tvo\u0159\u00ed 3,2 procenta Ukrajinc\u016f ve v\u011bku 20 a\u017e 30 let mu\u017ei a 2,6 procenta \u017eeny.\u00a0To je celkem pouh\u00fdch 5,8 procenta, a tedy nesta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby do\u0161lo k pozitivn\u00ed demografick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00fd \u00fapadek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho, \u017ee tento aspekt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed demografick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, m\u00e1 pro Ukrajinu v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky i z ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska.\u00a0Proto\u017ee pokles v r\u00e1mci mlad\u0161\u00edch v\u011bkov\u00fdch skupin m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na po\u010det zam\u011bstnateln\u00fdch lid\u00ed a t\u00edm i na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed v zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj se ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159\u00edmo dot\u00fdk\u00e1 i ukrajinsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e1 byla jednou z nejslab\u0161\u00edch ekonomik v Evrop\u011b je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed Ruska a kter\u00e1 je nyn\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e v katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm stavu.\u00a0Kv\u016fli boj\u016fm se ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdkon zhroutil nejm\u00e9n\u011b o t\u0159etinu, tak\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt v roce 2022 \u010dinil ekvivalent zhruba\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>150 miliard<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f a odhaduje se, \u017ee letos bude je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed mnohamiliardov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba splatit, proto\u017ee zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka a MMF a dal\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9 nejsou ochotni vzd\u00e1t se dluh\u016f masivn\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00e9 Ukrajiny.\u00a0<\/span>Podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad jejich zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dluh\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0vzrostl v roce 2022 na rekordn\u00ed hodnotu ekvivalentu zhruba 132 miliard dolar\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e celkov\u00fd\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se v tomto obdob\u00ed \u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161il z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 procent ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu v p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m roce 2021 na\u00a0\u00a0dnes\u00a0 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0<\/span>80 procent .\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Podle ministerstva financ\u00ed Ukrajiny bylo od \u00fanora lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku vynalo\u017eeno na rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 13 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro rok 2023 experti p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee celkov\u00fd dluh Ukrajiny by do konce roku mohl dos\u00e1hnout 150 miliard dolar\u016f, proto\u017ee v r\u00e1mci tzv. z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201epodpory\u201c jsou nad\u00e1le p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1ny nov\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v USA a zem\u00edch EU.\u00a0Do\u0161lo by tak\u00e9 na psychologickou hranici 100 procent pom\u011bru dluhu zem\u011b k HDP, co\u017e v podstat\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by se velikost dluhu rovnala celkov\u00e9mu objemu ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb vyroben\u00fdch na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ma\u010farsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Viktor Orb\u00e1n v tomto ohledu dokonce ozna\u010dil Ukrajinu za \u201eneexistuj\u00edc\u00ed zemi v ekonomick\u00e9m smyslu\u201c, proto\u017ee t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd jej\u00ed rozpo\u010det je zalo\u017een na vyp\u016fj\u010den\u00fdch prost\u0159edc\u00edch nebo mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoci.\u00a0A v tom m\u00e1 pravdu, proto\u017ee rozpo\u010det lze v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci utratit pouze pomoc\u00ed miliardov\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek z EU nebo USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed nejen ekonomika, ale i miliony pracovn\u00edk\u016f kv\u016fli exodu ze zem\u011b a demografick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m a tak\u00e9 miliony b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by byli ochotni investovat do obnovy a t\u00edm i do budoucnost zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Vzhledem k v\u00edce ne\u017e rok trvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b a z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm proti Rusku se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":866,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,59,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32358"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}