{"id":32055,"date":"2023-07-14T01:02:56","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T23:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=32055"},"modified":"2023-07-13T18:15:11","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T16:15:11","slug":"peter-haisenko-co-delat-kdyz-afd-dosahne-relativni-vetsiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/14\/peter-haisenko-co-delat-kdyz-afd-dosahne-relativni-vetsiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Haisenko: Co d\u011blat, kdy\u017e AfD dos\u00e1hne relativn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"Posledn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee AfD se m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch st\u00e1t nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranou v n\u011bkter\u00fdch spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch.\u00a0Jak\u00e9 to bude m\u00edt d\u016fsledky pro politickou sc\u00e9nu v N\u011bmecku a zejm\u00e9na pro samotnou AfD?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Relativn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina sama o sob\u011b za moc nestoj\u00ed.\u00a0Helmut Kohl se to musel nau\u010dit, kdy\u017e se v roce 1976 poprv\u00e9 uch\u00e1zel o m\u00edsto kancl\u00e9\u0159e.\u00a0Dok\u00e1zal dos\u00e1hnout obl\u00edbenosti, o jak\u00e9 si dne\u0161n\u00ed politici mohou nechat jen zd\u00e1t.\u00a0T\u011bchto 48,6 procenta v\u0161ak nesta\u010dilo na to, aby se dostal do kancl\u00e9\u0159stv\u00ed.\u00a0FDP a SPD karikovaly v\u016fli voli\u010d\u016f a Helmut Schmidt z\u016fstal kancl\u00e9\u0159em.\u00a0SPD z\u00edskala 42,6 procenta a FDP 7,9 procenta.\u00a0Na celkov\u00e9m volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledku je tak\u00e9 zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee pro \u201ejin\u00e9\u201c se rozhodlo pouze 0,9 procenta, zat\u00edmco dnes jsme zvykl\u00ed v\u00eddat v t\u00e9to kategorii a\u017e 10 procent.\u00a0V roce 1976 by sta\u010dila jen \u010dty\u0159i procenta \u201eostatn\u00edch\u201c, kter\u00e1 by pak z rovnice vypadla, aby Kohlovi zajistila absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu k\u0159esel v parlamentu.\u00a0Takhle funguje demokracie v N\u011bmecku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159\u00edklad ukazuje, \u017ee samotn\u00e1 relativn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina nen\u00ed z\u00e1rukou vedouc\u00ed pozice.\u00a0T\u00fdk\u00e1 se to zejm\u00e9na AfD.\u00a0V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u00favah\u00e1ch se soust\u0159ed\u00edm na zemsk\u00e9 volby, proto\u017ee je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se brzy budeme muset zab\u00fdvat skute\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edpadem.\u00a0Tot\u00e9\u017e v\u0161ak plat\u00ed pro volby do Bundestagu.\u00a0Poj\u010fme se tedy pod\u00edvat na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed volebn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy pro Braniborsko.\u00a0Hodnoty jsou uvedeny n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: AfD 28 %, SPD 21 %, CDU 18 %, Levice 10 %, Zelen\u00ed 9 %, BVB\/FW 5 %, FDP 3 % a dal\u0161\u00edch 6 %.\u00a0Koalice AfD, CDU a BVB\/FW by m\u011bla v braniborsk\u00e9m zemsk\u00e9m parlamentu solidn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.\u00a0Byl by…kdyby to nebylo „ohniv\u00e9 zdi“ samozvan\u00fdch „demokratick\u00fdch“ stran proti „bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 pravicov\u011b extremistick\u00e9“ AfD.\u00a0Zdroj:\u00a0<\/span>https:\/\/dawum.de\/Brandenburg\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed volebn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy pro Sasko jsou je\u0161t\u011b jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0S AfD (32,5 %) a CDU (30 %) by koalice AfD a CDU m\u011bla dokonce dvout\u0159etinovou v\u011bt\u0161inu.\u00a0Kdyby… \u0160anci na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed parlamentn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny by m\u011bly jen koalice mezi CDU, SPD a levic\u00ed nebo CDU, SPD a Zelen\u00fdmi.\u00a0Bez ohledu na to, jak u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt.\u00a0Zdroj:\u00a0<\/span>https:\/\/dawum.de\/Sachsen\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strana dostane za \u00fakol sestavit vl\u00e1du<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Slo\u017een\u00ed vl\u00e1dy v\u0161ak neza\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 jen probl\u00e9mem v Braniborsku.\u00a0A\u0165 u\u017e jde o psan\u00fd nebo tradi\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1kon, veden\u00ed nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strany bude muset b\u00fdt pov\u011b\u0159eno sestaven\u00edm vl\u00e1dy.\u00a0Kdo ze \u201ezna\u010dkov\u00fdch zedn\u00e1\u0159\u016f\u201c si ale v\u016fbec troufne promluvit s AfD?\u00a0I o koali\u010dn\u00edch mo\u017enostech?\u00a0Nutno podotknout, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e9 volby nebudou a\u017e za rok a nyn\u00ed jsou po Sonnebergovi a Raguhn-Je\u00dfnitzovi nov\u00e9 pozice na firewallu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Okresn\u00ed spr\u00e1vce CDU \u0159ekl o Markusovi Lanzovi jasn\u00e1 slova.\u00a0Z kontaktu s okresn\u00edmi radami AfD strach nem\u00e1, spolupr\u00e1ce funguje bez probl\u00e9m\u016f.\u00a0S okresn\u00edm spr\u00e1vcem AfD podle n\u011bj cht\u011bj\u00ed konstruktivn\u011b spolupracovat i lid\u00e9 z CDU v Sonnebergu.\u00a0Je to tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee voli\u010di by jinak mohli rychle rozpoznat, kdy lid\u00e9 z CDU sabotuj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 a rozumn\u00e9 projekty s tot\u00e1ln\u00edm odm\u00edtnut\u00edm.\u00a0To by p\u0159ivedlo v\u00edce voli\u010d\u016f k AfD, jak vysv\u011btlil okresn\u00ed spr\u00e1vce CDU.\u00a0ARD ale ned\u00e1vno (7. \u010dervence 2023) informovala, jak rychle se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed postoj voli\u010d\u016f ke spolupr\u00e1ci s AfD: jen 43 % to chce obecn\u011b vylou\u010dit.\u00a033 % p\u0159\u00edpad od p\u0159\u00edpadu a 17 % si p\u0159eje hledat spolupr\u00e1ci.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee polovina voli\u010d\u016f u\u017e nechce toto \u00fapln\u00e9 vylou\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na okresn\u00ed \u00farovni ji\u017e firewall neexistuje<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Na \u00farovn\u00edch pod st\u00e1tn\u00edmi vl\u00e1dami ji\u017e nedemokratick\u00fd firewall neexistuje.\u00a0St\u00e1v\u00e1 se v\u0161ak tak\u00e9, \u017ee tyto \u00farovn\u011b nejsou v politick\u00e9m a medi\u00e1ln\u00edm smyslu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zaznamen\u00e1ny.\u00a0Zcela jinak by to vypadalo, kdyby jedna ze star\u00fdch stran, tedy CDU, vstoupila do koalice s AfD za \u00fa\u010delem vytvo\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy pod veden\u00edm AfD.\u00a0Jak\u00e9 kv\u00edlen\u00ed by propuklo v levicov\u011b-zelen\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch?\u00a0A co by na to \u0159ekl Herr Merz a dal\u0161\u00ed velik\u00e1ni CDU?\u00a0T\u011b\u017eko si to p\u0159edstavit!\u00a0Jde ale o to, \u017ee nap\u016fl rozumn\u00e9 sestaven\u00ed vl\u00e1dy nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 bez AfD.\u00a0Nehled\u011b na to, \u017ee na post premi\u00e9ra m\u00e1 tradi\u010dn\u011b n\u00e1rok nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strana.\u00a0Existuje cesta ven?<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Existuje, a je to neobvykl\u00e9, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je to docela jednoduch\u00e9 a rozhodn\u011b demokratick\u00e9 a odpov\u00edd\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00edmu z\u00e1konu.\u00a0Pokud m\u00e1 AfD relativn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm \u010di men\u0161\u00edm odstupem od dal\u0161\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed strany, pak by se nem\u011bla ut\u00e1p\u011bt v koali\u010dn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch, kter\u00e1 mohou v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 jen po\u0161kodit.\u00a0M\u011bli by sestavit men\u0161inovou vl\u00e1du.\u00a0Nikdo by se nemusel oh\u00fdbat s nevhodn\u00fdmi kompromisy.\u00a0AfD by mohla sv\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inou kompetentn\u00ed odborn\u00edky dosadit jako ministry bez jak\u00fdchkoliv kdyby nebo ale.\u00a0Ve vl\u00e1d\u011b by kone\u010dn\u011b byli zase lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se nemus\u00ed pou\u0161t\u011bt do stranick\u00fdch tahanic.\u00a0Um\u011bla by jednat.\u00a0S t\u00edm je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b probl\u00e9m.\u00a0St\u00e1tn\u00ed parlament mus\u00ed potvrdit premi\u00e9ra ve funkci a tak\u00e9 ministr\u016fm k\u00fdvnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba se ob\u00e1vat \u00fapln\u00e9ho odm\u00edtnut\u00ed?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed jsme se museli nau\u010dit, \u017ee star\u00e9 strany se, pokud jde o AfD, nedr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00fdch zvyk\u016f.\u00a0V Bundestagu opakovan\u011b odm\u00edtli AfD post m\u00edstop\u0159edsedy, a to a\u017e dodnes.\u00a0Mohli si to ale dovolit, kdy\u017e jde o to, d\u00e1t feder\u00e1ln\u00edmu st\u00e1tu v\u016fbec vl\u00e1du?\u00a0Zva\u017ete \u010das.\u00a0Nejprve mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ustaven st\u00e1tn\u00ed parlament.\u00a0To trv\u00e1 n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee AfD postav\u00ed do voleb men\u0161inovou vl\u00e1du.\u00a0To trv\u00e1 zase n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f.\u00a0Pak je odm\u00edtnuta.\u00a0Pot\u00e9 AfD zah\u00e1j\u00ed koali\u010dn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Budou se t\u00e1hnout a to m\u016f\u017ee klidn\u011b trvat rok.\u00a0B\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby se v\u0161ak ji\u017e voli\u010di museli p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit, \u017ee odm\u00edtav\u00fd postoj star\u00fdch stran vedl k tomu, \u017ee st\u00e1t se ji\u017e ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Riziko nov\u00fdch voleb je pak v m\u00edstnosti.\u00a0Risknou to star\u00e9 strany?\u00a0Nemysl\u00edm si.\u00a0Nezapom\u00ednejme, \u017ee AfD je podle m\u011b u\u017e te\u010f nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranou.\u00a0A\u017e budou voli\u010di otr\u00e1veni nedemokratick\u00fdm odm\u00edtav\u00fdm postojem a budou cht\u00edt kone\u010dn\u011b op\u011bt funk\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1du, nen\u00ed nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee pomohou AfD dos\u00e1hnout absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na v Sasku m\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, jak rychle se to m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t.\u00a0Pokud jen polovina voli\u010d\u016f CDU z frustrace z tot\u00e1ln\u00edho odm\u00edtnut\u00ed p\u0159ejde k AfD a p\u0159id\u00e1 se k nim p\u00e1r nevoli\u010d\u016f, tak u\u017e je hotovo.\u00a0Ale poj\u010fme d\u00e1le pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee by nastala men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed z\u00e1kon neumo\u017e\u0148uje stranick\u00fd n\u00e1tlak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je mo\u017en\u00e1 pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd frak\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1tlak.\u00a0Podle z\u00e1kladn\u00edho z\u00e1kona to stejn\u011b nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e9, proto\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd poslanec je v\u00e1z\u00e1n pouze sv\u00fdm sv\u011bdom\u00edm.\u00a0Pokud men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1kon nebo vyhl\u00e1\u0161ku k hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed v parlamentu, mus\u00ed n\u00e1sledovat jmenovit\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Tato \u0161ablona mus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 p\u0159edem dob\u0159e zve\u0159ejn\u011bna a pokud mo\u017eno ji\u017e ve\u0159ejn\u011b projedn\u00e1na.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee voli\u010di v\u011bd\u00ed, co je v s\u00e1zce.\u00a0Men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da za \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed nebude pl\u00e1novat n\u011bco, co nem\u016f\u017ee naj\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161inu mezi voli\u010di.\u00a0Kter\u00fd poslanec by se pak odv\u00e1\u017eil uv\u00e9st sv\u00e9 jm\u00e9no jako poslanec, kter\u00fd v\u011bdom\u011b, \u00famysln\u011b hlasuje proti dobr\u00e9mu n\u00e1vrhu?\u00a0Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b krom\u011b zcela ideologicky zaslepen\u00fdch stoupenc\u016f n\u011bkter\u00fdch okrajov\u00fdch sekt.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to konstelaci je pak nemo\u017en\u00e9 vl\u00e1dnout proti v\u016fli v\u011bt\u0161iny.\u00a0Stejn\u011b jako to nyn\u00ed d\u011bl\u00e1 \u201esemafor\u201c.\u00a0Pokud 70 nebo 80 procent ob\u010dan\u016f nechce ideologizovan\u00fd z\u00e1kon o vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed nebo odm\u00edt\u00e1 genderov\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, pak to men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee ignorovat.\u00a0Ale nebyla by to skute\u010dn\u00e1 demokracie?\u00a0T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 demokracie?\u00a0\u0160el bych tak daleko, \u017ee bych \u0159ekl, \u017ee je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jedno, kter\u00e1 strana takovou men\u0161inovou vl\u00e1du vede.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez nov\u00fdch cest nen\u00ed pokrok<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sestaven\u00ed men\u0161inov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy by byl nov\u00fd experiment a ano, m\u016f\u017ee se pokazit.\u00a0Ale nest\u00e1lo by to za pokus?\u00a0V tomto smyslu upozor\u0148uji, \u017ee v Evrop\u011b ji\u017e existuje men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da.\u00a0Toti\u017e v \u0158ecku, ale se speci\u00e1ln\u00ed lah\u016fdkou.\u00a0V \u0158ecku vl\u00e1dne \u201eNea Demokratia\u201c sama, i kdy\u017e dok\u00e1zala sjednotit necel\u00fdch 41 procent hlas\u016f.\u00a0V parlamentu m\u00e1 ale 158 z 300 k\u0159esel.\u00a0To bylo mimochodem p\u0159edlo\u017eeno a\u017e ve druh\u00e9m hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed je v \u0158ecku povinn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak to funguje?\u00a0Aby byla zem\u011b p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b ovladateln\u00e1, m\u00e1 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strana n\u00e1rok na 50 dal\u0161\u00edch k\u0159esel.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti to nen\u00ed men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, ale obecn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky jsou podobn\u00e9.\u00a0Z toho vid\u00edme, \u017ee jist\u011b mohou existovat alternativn\u00ed modely demokracie, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e v Evrop\u011b existuj\u00ed.\u00a0Pokud tedy AfD v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hne relativn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny, p\u0159imlouval bych se za experimentov\u00e1n\u00ed s men\u0161inovou vl\u00e1dou.\u00a0T\u011b\u017eko se to m\u016f\u017ee zhor\u0161it, jako v koali\u010dn\u00edch vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch, kde nikdo za nic nenese odpov\u011bdnost a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e1 strana nen\u00ed schopna uplatnit sv\u016fj skute\u010dn\u00fd profil a program.\u00a0Spory, l\u00edn\u00e9 kompromisy a zastaven\u00ed jsou naprogramov\u00e1ny, jak jasn\u011b ukazuje \u201esemafor\u201c.\u00a0Ano, men\u0161inov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da by byla skute\u010dn\u00e1 <\/span>Alternativa<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0pro\u00a0<\/span>N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>,<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0hodn\u00e1 AfD\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Peter Haisenko\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Posledn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee AfD se m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch st\u00e1t nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranou v n\u011bkter\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[83,1042,84,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32055"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}