{"id":31835,"date":"2023-07-10T00:59:51","date_gmt":"2023-07-09T22:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=31835"},"modified":"2023-07-09T15:49:16","modified_gmt":"2023-07-09T13:49:16","slug":"explodujici-hory-dluhu-a-recese-nova-krize-eura-se-blizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/10\/explodujici-hory-dluhu-a-recese-nova-krize-eura-se-blizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Exploduj\u00edc\u00ed hory dluhu a recese \u2013 Nov\u00e1 krize eura se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhy zem\u00ed euroz\u00f3ny rostou, \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed se recese a Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nen\u00ed schopna naj\u00edt vhodnou m\u011bnovou politiku.\u00a0Hroz\u00ed vypuknut\u00ed nov\u00e9 krize eura \u2013 tentokr\u00e1t u\u017e ale N\u011bmecko nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt z\u00e1chranou.\u00a0Proto\u017ee Spolkov\u00e1 republika m\u00e1 sama o sob\u011b obrovsk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.\u00a0A ECB?\u00a0Nezvl\u00e1d\u00e1 balancov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi bojem proti inflaci a z\u00e1chranou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Euroz\u00f3na je v recesi u\u017e dv\u011b \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed za sebou.\u00a0<\/span>P\u0159esto\u017ee pokles ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity tvo\u0159\u00ed jen 0,1 procenta HDP, odborn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed situaci vn\u00edmaj\u00ed realisticky, se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee to je jen za\u010d\u00e1tek t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch \u010das\u016f.\u00a0Odprodeje dluh\u016f zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi dr\u017eiteli v \u0158ecku, It\u00e1lii, \u0160pan\u011blsku a Portugalsku vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9 nov\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 krize euroz\u00f3ny.<\/span><\/strong>V\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady v \u0158ecku, It\u00e1lii, \u0160pan\u011blsku a Portugalsku m\u00edrn\u011b klesly z maxima na za\u010d\u00e1tku l\u00e9ta 2022.\u00a0P\u0159esto mus\u00ed tyto zem\u011b za desetilet\u00fd \u00fav\u011br zaplatit o v\u00edce ne\u017e jeden procentn\u00ed bod v\u00edce ne\u017e N\u011bmecko.\u00a0I Francie, druh\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomika v EU, mus\u00ed investor\u016fm nab\u00eddnout v\u00fdnos o p\u016fl procenta vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e N\u011bmecko.\u00a0V \u010dervnu 2022 se ECB zav\u00e1zala p\u0159ijmout nezbytn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nila zraniteln\u00fdm zem\u00edm v platebn\u00ed neschopnosti, stejn\u011b jako to u\u010dinila b\u011bhem posledn\u00ed krize euroz\u00f3ny p\u0159ed deseti lety.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory siln\u00e9mu zapojen\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky reagovalo mnoho investor\u016f a odborn\u00edk\u016f opatrn\u011b.\u00a0M\u011bnov\u00e1 unie se nem\u016f\u017ee donekone\u010dna spol\u00e9hat na to, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pokryje nov\u00fd dluh, a odhady ECB ohledn\u011b dynamiky inflace byly chybn\u00e9, co\u017e vedlo k r\u016fstu cen.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Uzam\u010den\u00ed Covid-19 p\u0159im\u011blo zem\u011b EU utratit v\u00edce ne\u017e 2 biliony eur na stimula\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, tak\u017ee n\u011bkolik \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed m\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u011b vysokou \u00farove\u0148 dluhu.\u00a0<\/span>Dluh \u0158ecka, It\u00e1lie, Portugalska, \u0160pan\u011blska a Francie je v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e b\u011bhem krize evropsk\u00e9 jednotn\u00e9 m\u011bny v roce 2010.<\/span><\/strong>Zat\u00edmco vysok\u00e1 inflace m\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit dluhovou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e, pot\u0159eba ECB zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v boji proti inflaci zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na obsluhu zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dluhov\u00e9 krize \u010dasto nast\u00e1vaj\u00ed, kdy\u017e dlu\u017en\u00edci nejsou schopni dr\u017eet krok s v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 rostou rychleji ne\u017e jejich schopnost spl\u00e1cet sv\u00e9 st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1vazky.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b hlavn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky usilovn\u011b pracuj\u00ed na tom, aby udr\u017eely inflaci, kter\u00e1 je v z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch pozorov\u00e1na od poloviny roku 2021.\u00a0Tato inflace je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zp\u016fsobena rostouc\u00edmi cenami komodit a potravin v d\u016fsledku ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku. <\/span>Politika centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank zvy\u0161uje re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy plat\u00ed ze sv\u00e9ho dluhu, zat\u00edmco inflace zpomaluje hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst.\u00a0Kdy\u017e re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed m\u00edru ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, vl\u00e1dy ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed schopnost bezohledn\u011b utr\u00e1cet a hromadit dluhy.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>K udr\u017een\u00ed stabiln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b dluhu mus\u00ed vl\u00e1dy hospoda\u0159it s prim\u00e1rn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdm p\u0159ebytkem, kdy\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed m\u00edru ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.\u00a0\u010c\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed dluh, t\u00edm v\u00edce si mus\u00ed utahovat opasky. <\/span>Vysok\u00e1 inflace m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017eit re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ale i kdy\u017e je inflace sn\u00ed\u017eena, \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed vysok\u00e9.\u00a0To by mohlo v\u00e9st k opakov\u00e1n\u00ed krize st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu v euroz\u00f3n\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Za prv\u00e9, situace v n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch je znepokojiv\u00e1, proto\u017ee jejich vl\u00e1dy plat\u00ed vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z p\u016fj\u010dek, kter\u00e9 se pohybuj\u00ed od t\u0159\u00ed do t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dty\u0159 procent.<\/span><\/strong>Odborn\u00edci nav\u00edc p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed l\u00e9to v Evrop\u011b by mohlo b\u00fdt stejn\u011b hork\u00e9 jako loni, co\u017e vedlo k velk\u00e9mu suchu.\u00a0Toto teplo zhor\u0161uje probl\u00e9m dod\u00e1vek energie, kter\u00fd je ji\u017e ovlivn\u011bn politick\u00fdmi rozhodnut\u00edmi, jako je z\u00e1kaz n\u00e1kupu rusk\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed a rusk\u00e9 ropy.\u00a0Negativn\u00ed dopady p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch katastrof umoc\u0148uje kr\u00e1tkozrakost politiky.\u00a0Teplo a sucho (spolu s extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00fdmi cenami hnojiv) pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povedou ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farody a v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny, stejn\u011b jako k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m energi\u00ed a potravin.\u00a0ECB zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou kl\u00ed\u010dovou \u00farokovou sazbu na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od roku 2001, co\u017e by v kombinaci s rostouc\u00edmi cenami mohlo v\u00e9st k nov\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 krizi. <\/span>Investo\u0159i si toto nebezpe\u010d\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edce uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, co\u017e dokazuj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f euroz\u00f3ny.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f rostou, jejich hodnota kles\u00e1, co\u017e zase sni\u017euje n\u00e1klady na kolater\u00e1l, typicky st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 pro firemn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky.\u00a0Tento pokles d\u016fv\u011bry v dluh zem\u00ed euroz\u00f3ny donutil komer\u010dn\u00ed banky hledat dodate\u010dn\u00e9 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dek od sv\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank.<\/span><\/strong>Tento probl\u00e9m poci\u0165uje cel\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec n\u00e1rodn\u00edho bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, a\u017e po regul\u00e1tora v podob\u011b ECB.\u00a0ECB stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed nelehk\u00fdm \u00fakolem bojovat s inflac\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 podporovat zadlu\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b.\u00a0Hlavn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem ECB k p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed minul\u00e9 krize byl n\u00e1kup dluhopis\u016f probl\u00e9mov\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00fd m\u011bl stimula\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek na celou ekonomiku EU.\u00a0Optimist\u00e9 se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee ECB dok\u00e1\u017ee naj\u00edt rovnov\u00e1hu mezi p\u0159edch\u00e1zen\u00edm platebn\u00ed neschopnosti a povzbuzov\u00e1n\u00edm pl\u00fdtvav\u00fdch zem\u00ed, aby si p\u016fj\u010dovaly na vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1klady.\u00a0R\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb m\u00e1 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00fd dopad na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozpo\u010dty, co\u017e pro ECB p\u0159edstavuje dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes je situace \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1, ne\u017e b\u00fdvala.\u00a0Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) se sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet inflaci pod kontrolou a musela zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, co\u017e zpomalilo ekonomiku.\u00a0To vedlo k negativn\u00edmu r\u016fstu a n\u00e1r\u016fstu \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f v mnoha zem\u00edch EU, co\u017e vyvolalo soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nepokoje a vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 vl\u00e1dy, aby p\u0159ehodnotily hospod\u00e1\u0159skou politiku. <\/span><\/strong>Pravicov\u00e9 strany z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed vliv a mnoh\u00e9 volaj\u00ed po ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu s Moskvou.\u00a0V\u0161echny tyto faktory zt\u011b\u017euj\u00ed ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed intervenc\u00ed na dluhopisov\u00e9m trhu jen proto, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo finan\u010dn\u00ed fragmentaci v euroz\u00f3n\u011b.\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed hrozbou je, \u017ee pouh\u00e1 kontrola sazeb st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f nebude k ochran\u011b zraniteln\u00fdch ekonomik sta\u010dit. <\/span>ECB ji\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby natolik, \u017ee i N\u011bmecko nyn\u00ed plat\u00ed za 10let\u00e9 dluhopisy 2,4 procenta, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst oproti stavu p\u0159ed necel\u00fdmi dv\u011bma lety.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho se n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2023 propadla o 0,3 procenta, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se stala ekonomikou s nejhor\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdkonem mezi 20 zem\u011bmi euroz\u00f3ny.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee N\u011bmecko bylo zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v podstat\u011b zachr\u00e1nila euroz\u00f3nu z posledn\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 krize.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>V b\u0159eznu 2015 zah\u00e1jila Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) program kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00fd p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed eur na n\u00e1kup vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhu za \u00fa\u010delem udr\u017een\u00ed platebn\u00ed bilance.\u00a0Anal\u00fdza vypo\u0159\u00e1dac\u00edho mechanismu mezi ECB a bankami euroz\u00f3ny ukazuje, \u017ee N\u011bmecko nakonec zaplatilo za n\u00e1kup dluh\u016f v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed euroz\u00f3ny.\u00a0To vedlo k velk\u00e9 bublin\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho kompenzov\u00e1n\u00ed v bankovn\u00edm a finan\u010dn\u00edm sektoru Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kter\u00e1 se chyst\u00e1 prasknout. <\/span>P\u0159es snahy o \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto probl\u00e9m\u016f, kup\u0159.\u00a0B. restrukturalizac\u00ed \u0159eck\u00e9ho dluhu nebylo nalezeno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.\u00a0\u0158ecko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 schopno pln\u011b spl\u00e1cet sv\u016fj dluh, a to ani v r\u00e1mci syst\u00e9mu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f bank v euroz\u00f3n\u011b.\u00a0Pokud budou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nad\u00e1le r\u016fst, dal\u0161\u00ed zraniteln\u00e9 ekonomiky euroz\u00f3ny jako It\u00e1lie, \u0160pan\u011blsko a Portugalsko se stanou rovn\u011b\u017e neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Schopnost euroz\u00f3ny vypo\u0159\u00e1dat se s negativn\u00ed korelac\u00ed mezi stabilitou n\u00e1rodn\u00edch bankovn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f a vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00e1.\u00a0I kdy\u017e banky v zem\u00edch jako It\u00e1lie nebo \u0158ecko p\u0159e\u017eij\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch vl\u00e1d, konflikt mezi m\u011bnovou uni\u00ed a schopnost\u00ed \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f prov\u00e1d\u011bt nez\u00e1vislou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku bude pokra\u010dovat. <\/span>Finan\u010dn\u00ed sektor v Evrop\u011b si je v\u011bdom, \u017ee dluhy jihoevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed jsou jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed vymahateln\u00e9, proto\u017ee z\u00e1ruky, kter\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed banky nab\u00edzej\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e1m za p\u016fj\u010dky, jsou sporn\u00e9.\u00a0Jedinou sch\u016fdnou mo\u017enost\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jsou st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebudou schopny obsluhovat p\u0159i vysok\u00fdch re\u00e1ln\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch.\u00a0V\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee probl\u00e9mov\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b ji\u017e 15 let dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed prost\u0159edky od ECB a jako z\u00e1stavu vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry, kter\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k n\u00e1kupu zbo\u017e\u00ed z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci argumentuj\u00ed, zda si \u010dty\u0159i nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b mohou p\u016fj\u010dovat za \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nad 4 procenta.\u00a0<\/span>Aby se \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila popt\u00e1vka, mus\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 m\u00edra p\u0159evy\u0161ovat m\u00edru inflace.\u00a0Pokud v\u0161ak p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed tuto kritickou hranici, bude t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 kontrolovat inflaci v euroz\u00f3n\u011b a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zabr\u00e1nit zem\u00edm v platebn\u00ed neschopnosti.\u00a0Dluhov\u00e1 krize v euroz\u00f3n\u011b je pak t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nevyhnuteln\u00e1. <\/span><\/strong>Krom\u011b toho EU \u010del\u00ed dilematu, jak sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farove\u0148 dluhu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 umo\u017enit \u010dlensk\u00fdm zem\u00edm investovat do jejich ekonomik zasa\u017een\u00fdch pandemi\u00ed.\u00a0Snahy Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky udr\u017eet n\u00edzkou inflaci ji\u017e od roku 2010 p\u0159ivedly n\u011bkter\u00e9 zem\u011b euroz\u00f3ny do recese a krize st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu.\u00a0Vzhledem k sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci budou muset politici euroz\u00f3ny a ECB u\u010dinit je\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed.\u00a0Euroz\u00f3na se nav\u00edc vzhledem k n\u00e1r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch jev\u00ed zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1\u0159 Heinze Steinera<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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