{"id":31273,"date":"2023-07-01T04:48:02","date_gmt":"2023-07-01T02:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=31273"},"modified":"2023-07-01T04:48:02","modified_gmt":"2023-07-01T02:48:02","slug":"nas-svet-ceka-velka-valka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/07\/01\/nas-svet-ceka-velka-valka\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1\u0161 sv\u011bt \u010dek\u00e1 velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zda se ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch turbulenc\u00ed rozvine tot\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u0159et velmoc\u00ed, je ot\u00e1zka, kter\u00e1 dnes rezonuje o n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed.\u00a0V\u011bda v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce se nevyhneme.\u00a0A toto nejsou n\u011bjac\u00ed neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ebrit\u0161t\u00ed v\u011bdci\u201c.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd v\u011bdec Pjotr \u200b\u200bTur\u010din, dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, se proslavil v roce 2010, kdy v \u010dl\u00e1nku pro \u010dasopis \u201eNature\u201c p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee Amerika a Brit\u00e1nie upadnou do chaosu v roce 2020, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vl\u00e1dy se zhrout\u00ed a lid\u00e9 se budou navz\u00e1jem vra\u017edit v ulic\u00edch.\u00a0Skute\u010dn\u011b, jako kdy\u017e do vody hled\u00ed\u0161.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tur\u010dinova nov\u00e1 kniha m\u00e1 v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd n\u00e1zev<\/span>\u201ePosledn\u00e9 \u010dasy: Elity, kontraelity a cesta k politick\u00e9mu \u00fapadku (End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration Kindle Edition)\u201c<\/a>.\u00a0Autor, vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00edm biolog, pracuje v nejkuri\u00f3zn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed oblasti kliodynamiky \u2013 jde o modelov\u00e1n\u00ed historick\u00fdch proces\u016f matematick\u00fdmi metodami.\u00a0Fixuj\u00edc nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trendy lze vypo\u010d\u00edtat, kam se posunou v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech.\u00a0P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b takto se tak\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed zhruba simulovat situace na trhu burzovn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di.<\/span><\/p>\n

V knize Tur\u010din hled\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edklady v procesu kolapsu imp\u00e9ri\u00ed.\u00a0Co se stane ve velk\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b, kdy\u017e v n\u011bm dost\u0159ediv\u00e9 s\u00edly zesl\u00e1bnou a obrovsk\u00e1 zem\u011b za\u010dne praskat ve \u0161vech?<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou kolapsu je nekone\u010dn\u00e1 chamtivost elit.\u00a0Stabiln\u00ed imp\u00e9rium existuje do t\u00e9 doby, dokud ekonomick\u00fd mechanismus poskytuje dostatek a prosperitu absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b obyvatelstva \u2013 od skromn\u00fdch roln\u00edk\u016f a \u0159emesln\u00edk\u016f a\u017e po superboh\u00e1\u010de.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ur\u010dit\u00e9m moment\u011b v\u0161ak mocensk\u00e9 elity – finan\u010dn\u00ed a vojensk\u00e1 – neodolaj\u00ed poku\u0161en\u00ed a za\u010dnou vlastn\u00ed obyvatelstvo o\u0161kub\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201eTohle je \u017eelezn\u00fd z\u00e1kon oligarchie,\u201c tvrd\u00ed Tur\u010din.\u00a0\u201eLid\u00e9 u moci ji za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvat pro sobeck\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely.\u00a0P\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed ekonomiku tak, aby za\u010dala fungovat ve prosp\u011bch bohat\u00fdch na \u00fakor chud\u00fdch.\u00a0J\u00e1 tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m vycucov\u00e1n\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le je to naprosto jasn\u00e9: a\u0165 u\u017e je to Starov\u011bk\u00fd \u0158\u00edm nebo Rusk\u00e1 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e, propast mezi chud\u00fdmi a bohat\u00fdmi se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zv\u011bt\u0161ovat, v zemi se objevuj\u00ed miliony nespokojen\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, pak doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke spont\u00e1nn\u00edm nepokoj\u016fm, ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm v\u00e1lk\u00e1m (proto\u017ee arm\u00e1da nechce bojovat za nespravedliv\u00fd syst\u00e9m) a rozpadu imp\u00e9ria.\u00a0V\u0161e podle jednoho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dt\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i se Tur\u010dina zeptali i na Ameriku: kdy to skon\u010d\u00ed?\u00a0Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee pumpa na vys\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed se v zemi spustila koncem 70. let. D\u00edky hord\u00e1m migrant\u016f bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dumpingovat trh pr\u00e1ce a minim\u00e1ln\u00ed mzda se od t\u00e9 doby nezm\u011bnila.\u00a0Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed vrstvy se po generace neum\u011bly dostat z chudoby, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdtahy se zastavily.\u00a0Av\u0161ak bohatstv\u00ed elit se mezit\u00edm zn\u00e1sobilo kv\u016fli finan\u010dn\u00edm spekulac\u00edm a nyn\u00ed je propast mezi chud\u00fdmi a bohat\u00fdmi prost\u011b obrovsk\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nepokoje posledn\u00edch let nejsou dobr\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem.\u00a0Tur\u010din v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Ameriku p\u0159ed kolapsem m\u016f\u017ee zachr\u00e1nit jen \u00fapln\u00e1 restrukturalizace ekonomiky podle Rooseveltova \\“nov\u00e9ho kurzu\\“, ale zat\u00edm to nikdo ned\u011bl\u00e1.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tento algoritmus rozpadu st\u00e1tu m\u016f\u017ee pou\u017e\u00edt kter\u00fdkoli ob\u010dan i ve vztahu ke sv\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu.\u00a0Je evidentn\u00ed, \u017ee stejn\u00e9 procesy prob\u00edhaj\u00ed s m\u00edrn\u00fdm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm i v Evropsk\u00e9 unii.\u00a0M\u00e1me po ruce jasn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad rozpadu b\u00fdval\u00e9 Ukrajinsk\u00e9 SSR, kde oligarchov\u00e9 b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let zruinovali zemi a jej\u00ed zbytky p\u0159edali pod kontrolu z\u00e1mo\u0159sk\u00fdch p\u00e1n\u016f.\u00a0Te\u010f se to sna\u017e\u00edme zachr\u00e1nit doslova kousek po kousku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kolapsy imp\u00e9ri\u00ed prov\u00e1zej\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, tak\u017ee pochmurn\u00fd n\u00e1zev Tur\u010dinovy \u200b\u200bknihy nen\u00ed v\u016fbec n\u00e1hodn\u00fd.\u00a0Skute\u010dn\u011b n\u00e1s v\u0161echny mohou \u010dekat \u201eposledn\u00ed \u010dasy\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto ne\u010dekan\u011b s rusk\u00fdm v\u011bdcem souhlas\u00ed i americk\u00fd miliard\u00e1\u0159.\u00a0Ray Dalio je jedn\u00edm z nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch investor\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0D\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee se dob\u0159e vyzn\u00e1 v trendech, je jeho vlastn\u00edch 19 miliard dolar\u016f plus stovky miliard, kter\u00e9 mu lid\u00e9 sv\u011b\u0159ili do jeho hedgeov\u00e9ho fondu.\u00a0Mimochodem, dok\u00e1zal vyd\u011blat i b\u011bhem velk\u00e9 recese v roce 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dalio publikoval v \u010dasopise \u201eTime\u201c \u010dl\u00e1nek s n\u00e1zvem \u201ePro\u010d je sv\u011bt na pokraji velk\u00e9ho chaosu?\u201c, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry tak\u00e9 historick\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJsem glob\u00e1ln\u00ed investor a pades\u00e1t let <\u2026> jsem vid\u011bl r\u016fzn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti a cykly ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, co\u017e m\u011b p\u0159ivedlo k zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad pot\u0159ebou studovat historii, abych pochopil, co se bude d\u00edt d\u00e1l,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e Dalio.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159i zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed trend\u016f od starov\u011bk\u00e9 \u010c\u00edny a\u017e po sou\u010dasnost si Dalio v\u0161iml t\u0159\u00ed charakteristick\u00fdch skute\u010dnost\u00ed.\u00a0Nikdy na sv\u011bt\u011b nebyla takov\u00e1 masa dluh\u016f jako dnes, s v\u00fdjimkou obdob\u00ed od roku 1930 do roku 1945, sv\u011bt od t\u00e9 doby nevid\u011bl takovou propast mezi bohat\u00fdmi a chud\u00fdmi a od t\u00e9 doby nikdy nebyly konflikty mezi vedouc\u00edmi mocnostmi tak vyost\u0159en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dalio se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee soub\u011bh t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed faktor\u016f v d\u011bjin\u00e1ch lidstva nutn\u011b vede ke sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 restrukturalizaci cel\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du.\u00a0Jeho p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed jsou n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: do roku a p\u016fl budou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010delit siln\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi podobn\u00e9 Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krizi, plnohodnotn\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce b\u011bhem prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb, jako\u017e i vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/em><\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee recept, kter\u00fd Dalio nab\u00edz\u00ed, se v mnoh\u00e9m podob\u00e1 Tur\u010dinov\u00fdm my\u0161lenk\u00e1m \u2013 zastavit od\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed z mas a reformovat kapitalismus.\u00a0Mo\u017enosti t\u011bchto zm\u011bn v\u0161ak, podobn\u011b jako historik, nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee objektivn\u00ed \u00fadaje \u2013 ekonomie, historie a matematick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza \u2013 se shoduj\u00ed v jednom: n\u00e1\u0161 sv\u011bt \u010dek\u00e1 velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.\u00a0Poda\u0159\u00ed se lidstvu zvr\u00e1tit tuto katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed cestu?<\/em><\/p>\n

Viktoria Nikiforova<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Zda se ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch turbulenc\u00ed rozvine tot\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u0159et velmoc\u00ed, je ot\u00e1zka, kter\u00e1 dnes rezonuje o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15668,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3339,371,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31273"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}