{"id":3027,"date":"2021-07-03T04:47:14","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T02:47:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=3027"},"modified":"2021-07-03T04:47:14","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T02:47:14","slug":"friday-edition-prichazejici-deflace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/07\/03\/friday-edition-prichazejici-deflace\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Edition: P\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed deflace"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ne, to nen\u00ed tiskov\u00e1 chyba v\u00a0n\u00e1zvu dne\u0161n\u00edho textu. \u0158e\u010d bude o\u00a0budouc\u00ed deflaci, nikoliv o\u00a0inflaci. V\u0161ichni u\u017e mluv\u00ed o\u00a0inflaci, tak\u017ee je na \u010dase se zab\u00fdvat t\u00edm, co bude n\u00e1sledovat.<\/p>\n

U\u017e d\u0159\u00edve jsme psali, \u017ee jsme v\u00a0celosv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce proti covidu manipulov\u00e1ni z\u00e1ludn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami ve v\u00fdznamech slov. \u201eZdrav\u00fd\u201c v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech te\u010f znamen\u00e1 potencion\u00e1ln\u011b ohro\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed ostatn\u00ed, zat\u00edmco zaru\u010den\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo EU na voln\u00fd pohyb m\u00e1 b\u00fdt vyhrazeno pro dr\u017eitele covidov\u00e9ho pasu.<\/p>\n

K nepatrn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b definic pojm\u016f inflace a\u00a0deflace do\u0161lo b\u011bhem del\u0161\u00ed doby a\u00a0jejich nov\u00e9 v\u00fdznamy jsou p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1ny t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161emi. Ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b je inflace r\u016fst objemu pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby, kter\u00fd vede k\u00a0r\u016fstu cen, ale nyn\u00ed se za ni obecn\u011b pova\u017euje samotn\u00fd r\u016fst cen bez ohledu na to, zda je zp\u016fsoben r\u016fstem pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby, nebo naopak nab\u00eddkou a\u00a0popt\u00e1vkou.<\/p>\n

Obdobn\u011b je deflace ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b pokles objemu pen\u011bz a\u00a0pokles cen je bu\u010f jeho d\u016fsledkem, nebo je zp\u016fsoben nab\u00eddkou a\u00a0popt\u00e1vkou. V\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed je pojem deflace jako poklesu nab\u00eddky pen\u011bz obecn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1n za p\u0159e\u017eitek minulosti.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka 7. listopadu 2013 devalvovala korunu, uvedla jako d\u016fvod\u00a0riziko deflace<\/a>: \u201eV prvn\u00edm kroku klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny skute\u010dn\u011b znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee si lid\u00e9 mohou za sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy a\u00a0\u00faspory koupit v\u00edc. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud to trv\u00e1 del\u0161\u00ed dobu, mohou o\u00a0tyto sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b i\u00a0\u00faspory p\u0159ij\u00edt. P\u0159i tzv. defla\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1le se toti\u017e ekonomika dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do \u00fatlumu a\u00a0firmy musej\u00ed propou\u0161t\u011bt a\/nebo sni\u017eovat mzdy. Mimo jin\u00e9 i\u00a0proto, \u017ee lid\u00e9 (zejm\u00e9na st\u0159edn\u011b- a\u00a0vysokop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 skupiny) i\u00a0firmy mohou za\u010d\u00edt se sv\u00fdmi v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1kupy a\u00a0investicemi ot\u00e1let v\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee ceny klesnou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce. Pen\u00edze tak sice vlivem poklesu cen z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed na hodnot\u011b, ale za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed v\u00a0ekonomice st\u00e1le v\u00edce \u201ezah\u00e1let\u201c, \u00faspory nejsou p\u0159etavov\u00e1ny v\u00a0investice. Co\u017e nut\u00ed firmy sni\u017eovat ceny a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 sv\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, a\u00a0to tak, \u017ee omezuj\u00ed po\u010det sv\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f i\u00a0jejich mzdy. A\u00a0to d\u00e1le omezuje popt\u00e1vku lid\u00ed. Stejn\u011b jako zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee cena jejich bytu \u010di domu je najednou ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hypot\u00e9ka, kterou musej\u00ed spl\u00e1cet. To m\u016f\u017ee ohrozit stabilitu bank, kter\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry poskytly. A\u00a0tak d\u00e1le, a\u00a0tak d\u00e1le. Dom\u00e1cnosti se tak lehce (a\u00a0pro n\u011bkoho mo\u017en\u00e1 paradoxn\u011b) mohou st\u00e1t vlivem poklesu cen chud\u0161\u00edmi. Tedy nic, po \u010dem by m\u011bly tou\u017eit.\u201c<\/p>\n

Takto v\u00a0roce 2013 \u010cNB vysv\u011btlovala, co m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit deflace. Odpov\u011b\u010f \u010cNB na tuto hrozbu byla devalvace koruny tiskem nov\u00fdch pen\u011bz. Odpov\u011b\u010f na hrozbu poklesu cen a\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed hodnoty pen\u011bz bylo nafouknut\u00ed m\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e \u010cNB minul\u00fd t\u00fdden zakro\u010dila proti r\u016fstu cen, nezvr\u00e1tila infla\u010dn\u00ed proces z\u00a0roku 2013. Nepou\u017eila devizov\u00e9 rezervy, kter\u00e9 tehdy nakoupila, k\u00a0odstran\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00fdch korun, je\u017e nyn\u00ed \u201ezp\u016fsobuj\u00ed\u201c inflaci. M\u00edsto toho zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. To \u010dasem zpomal\u00ed r\u016fst \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 tvorby a\u00a0m\u011bnov\u00e9 inflace, ale nezvr\u00e1t\u00ed ho.<\/p>\n

Tom\u00e1\u0161 Havr\u00e1nek<\/a>, b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce \u010cNB, byl jedn\u00edm z\u00a0m\u00e1la analytik\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed minul\u00fd t\u00fdden devalvaci z\u00a0roku 2013 p\u0159ipomn\u011bli. Podle n\u011bj by \u010cNB mohla v\u00a0boji s\u00a0cenovou inflac\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy, ale je to prakticky nev\u00eddan\u00e9. \u010cNB tak neu\u010dinila ani ve dvou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch kriz\u00edch za posledn\u00edch 30 let, ve finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v\u00a0roce 2008 a\u00a0v lo\u0148sk\u00e9 covidov\u00e9 krizi. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm je podle n\u011bj sou\u010dasn\u00e9 p\u0159est\u0159elen\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle drobnost, kv\u016fli kter\u00e9 \u010cNB intervenovat nebude.<\/p>\n

C. V. Myers, ji\u017e d\u00e1vno zesnul\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed poradce, ve sv\u00e9 knize\u00a0P\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed deflace<\/em>\u00a0(The Coming Deflation)<\/em>\u00a0z\u00a0roku 1976 napsal, \u017ee nem\u016f\u017eeme v\u011bd\u011bt, kdy nadm\u011brn\u00e1 tvorba pen\u011bz – inflace – dos\u00e1hne takov\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee se zhrout\u00ed kreditn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Upozor\u0148oval tehdy, \u017ee existuj\u00ed n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee se to bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, ale vysv\u011btloval, \u017ee inflace p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve vln\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1s postupn\u011b v\u00a0cyklech p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed k\u00a0deflaci. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krach od doby, kdy svou knihu napsal, nedos\u00e1hl j\u00edm o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f. Jeho\u00a0vlastnoru\u010dn\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 sch\u00e9ma<\/a>, dnes zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako\u00a0Exterova pyramida<\/a>, m\u011blo slou\u017eit jako p\u0159\u00edru\u010dka, kam sm\u011b\u0159ovat, kdy\u017e varovn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznaky deflace za\u010dnou s\u00edlit.<\/p>\n

Letos je tomu 50 let, co existuje americk\u00fd dolar v\u00a0podob\u011b, jakou zn\u00e1me. Dne 15. srpna 1971 zru\u0161il Richard Nixon vazbu dolaru na zlato. Prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee\u00a0dolar nezdevalvoval<\/a>, pouze \u201epokud si chcete koupit zahrani\u010dn\u00ed auto nebo jet na cestu do zahrani\u010d\u00ed, tr\u017en\u00ed podm\u00ednky mohou zp\u016fsobit, \u017ee si za v\u00e1\u0161 dolar koup\u00edte o\u00a0n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b.\u201c Podobn\u00e9 v\u011bci sl\u00fdch\u00e1me i\u00a0dnes, kdy glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nab\u00eddka pen\u011bz prudce roste. Americk\u00fd Fed za posledn\u00edch dvacet m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f svou\u00a0bilanci zdvojn\u00e1sobil<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9\u00a0Zpr\u00e1v\u011b o\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm bohatstv\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0Credit Suisse minul\u00fd t\u00fdden napsala, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst majetku dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a\u00a0na prohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed rozd\u00edlu v\u00a0bohatstv\u00ed v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce m\u011bly pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. \u201eV dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm horizontu tu jsou infla\u010dn\u00ed d\u016fsledky a\u00a0tak\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0budouc\u00edm r\u016fstem \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Ty jsou v\u0161ak relativn\u011b ned\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0bezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi ekonomick\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my,\u201c uvedla banka.<\/p>\n

Myers by s\u00a0t\u00edm nesouhlasil. V\u00a0roce 1976 \u0159ekl, \u017ee nejz\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, zda n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed vlna inflace, anebo u\u017e se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed deflace. A\u00a0deflac\u00ed m\u011bl na mysli \u00fabytek pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch z\u00e1sob a\u00a0postupn\u00fd posun dol\u016f po Exterov\u011b pyramid\u011b tak, jak roste riziko.<\/p>\n

V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku nastane strkanice o\u00a0hotovost, proto\u017ee \u010d\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bude inflace, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bude potom i\u00a0deflace. Bude to hra o\u00a0posledn\u00ed volnou \u017eidli a\u00a0mnoz\u00ed z\u016fstanou bez m\u00edsta k\u00a0sezen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Erik Best<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek vy\u0161el minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v\u00a0anglick\u00e9m zn\u011bn\u00ed placen\u00e9ho zpravodaje\u00a0<\/em>Friday Edition<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ne, to nen\u00ed tiskov\u00e1 chyba v\u00a0n\u00e1zvu dne\u0161n\u00edho textu. \u0158e\u010d bude o\u00a0budouc\u00ed deflaci, nikoliv o\u00a0inflaci. V\u0161ichni…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[503,802,683,29,90],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3027"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}