{"id":30021,"date":"2023-06-13T01:01:06","date_gmt":"2023-06-12T23:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=30021"},"modified":"2023-06-12T17:39:13","modified_gmt":"2023-06-12T15:39:13","slug":"velky-vyvoj-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/13\/velky-vyvoj-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Velk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj na Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mo\u017en\u00e1;\u00a0z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, co m\u011bl na mysli ukrajinsk\u00fd ministr obrany Reznikov<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee na Ukrajin\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je vyjednat \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Ukrajina je p\u0159ipravena na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edrovou dohodu,“ \u0159ekl ukrajinsk\u00fd ministr obrany Oleksij Reznikov, „pokud Rusko zm\u011bn\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve stanoven\u00e9 c\u00edle speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161lo pot\u00e9, co ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Volodymyr Zelenskij nav\u0161t\u00edvil 8. \u010dervna Cherson, aby se dozv\u011bd\u011bl o prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed ofenziv\u011b v oblasti Saphorize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskij nepochybn\u011b obdr\u017eel zpr\u00e1vy, kter\u00e9 necht\u011bl sly\u0161et: ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva se nevyv\u00edj\u00ed dob\u0159e a ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da utrp\u011bla t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0Rus\u016fm se poda\u0159ilo vy\u0159adit mnoho ukrajinsk\u00fdch tank\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b Francouz\u016f dodan\u00fdch AMX-10 a t\u0159\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fdch model\u016f Leopard A-6 (ne polsk\u00fdch model\u016f A-4).<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 tak\u00e9 zni\u010dili \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd radar Hensoldt TRML-4D AESA, sou\u010d\u00e1st syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany Iris-T, kter\u00fd byl p\u0159iveden na dost\u0159el, aby podpo\u0159il ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly v ofenziv\u011b.\u00a0Jeho neutralizac\u00ed rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly z\u00edskaly kontrolu nad vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem nad boji\u0161t\u011bm.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Iris T, ukryt\u00e1 mezi stromy, s voj\u00e1kem na radaru p\u0159ed jeho zni\u010den\u00edm<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

O rusk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch nebo materi\u00e1ln\u00edch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch toho moc nev\u00edme.\u00a0V\u00edme, \u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1 nejv\u00edce modernizovan\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 brig\u00e1da \u2013 47. mechanizovan\u00e1 brig\u00e1da, vycvi\u010den\u00e1 NATO v Evrop\u011b, byla vyzbrojena br\u00fdlemi pro no\u010dn\u00ed vid\u011bn\u00ed, termovizn\u00edmi za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edmi a obrn\u011bn\u00fdmi transport\u00e9ry jako americk\u00fd Bradley a m\u011bla na\u0159\u00edzeno masivn\u00ed d\u011blost\u0159electvo, v\u010detn\u011b HIMARS – nemohl z\u00edskat p\u016fdu nebo zatla\u010dit Rusy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak velk\u00e9 celkov\u00e9 po\u0161kozen\u00ed tato brig\u00e1da utrp\u011bla, ale jin\u00e9 jednotky byly tak v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kozeny, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 prapory odm\u00edtly bojovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina m\u00e1 st\u00e1le velmi velkou s\u00edlu, kterou je t\u0159eba uv\u00e9st do bitvy, tak\u017ee ofenz\u00edva je teprve v ran\u00e9 f\u00e1zi.\u00a0Ale Rusov\u00e9 maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 velk\u00e9 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed s\u00edly, mo\u017en\u00e1 200 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed nasazuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj nem\u016f\u017ee otev\u0159en\u011b \u017e\u00e1dat Rusy o dohodu, proto\u017ee by to zni\u010dilo jeho vazby s USA a dal\u0161\u00edmi zem\u011bmi NATO a oslabilo ho na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda Reznikov sv\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm mysl\u00ed to, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 mus\u00ed p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm jedn\u00e1n\u00ed souhlasit se zm\u011bnou sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.\u00a0Nebo t\u00edm mysl\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fdchoz\u00ed pozic\u00ed Ukrajiny je, \u017ee dohoda vy\u017eaduje zm\u011bnu rusk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f pro vojensk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud po\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 Rusy, aby b\u011bhem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bnili sv\u016fj postoj, bude to v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b odm\u00edtnuto.\u00a0Kreml se zat\u00edm nevyj\u00e1d\u0159il a je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed zjistit, co m\u00e1 Reznikov na mysli a zda m\u00e1 vlastn\u011b pravomoc vyjedn\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno cht\u011bl Zelenskij vyhodit Reznikova za korupci.\u00a0Na siln\u011b cenzurovan\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b se objevily p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy o Reznikovov\u00fdch \u0161pinav\u00fdch rukou.\u00a0Pak mu bylo z\u00e1hadn\u011b v\u0161echno odpu\u0161t\u011bno.\u00a0Tak\u017ee vztah mezi Zelensk\u00fdm a Reznikovem mus\u00ed b\u00fdt t\u011b\u017ek\u00fd.\u00a0Mluv\u00ed Reznikov za zbytek ukrajinsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed?\u00a0B\u00e1l se Zelenskyj mo\u017en\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho p\u0159evratu, pokud napln\u00ed svou hrozbu korupc\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ode\u0161el Reznikov s\u00e1m?\u00a0To je jedna z tez\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 prozkoumat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko se m\u016f\u017ee pokusit zjistit, zda to Reznikov mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b \u2013 a lze o n\u011bm vyjedn\u00e1vat \u2013 p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00edm n\u011bkter\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch my\u0161lenek zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch na c\u00edle sv\u00fdch speci\u00e1ln\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed.\u00a0To lze prov\u00e9st prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch kan\u00e1l\u016f nebo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016f nebo d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdch prost\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naposledy do\u0161lo mezi ob\u011bma stranami k v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm, kdy\u017e b\u00fdval\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Naftali Bennett pendloval tam a zp\u011bt mezi Ukrajinou, Ruskem, N\u011bmeckem a Franci\u00ed.\u00a0\u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee byl na pokraji quid pro quo, kdy\u017e jeho \u00fasil\u00ed podkopala Bidenova administrativa a Zelenskij byl nucen zru\u0161it ka\u017edou dohodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ilustrovan\u00e9: Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin (vlevo) a premi\u00e9r Naftali Bennett si pot\u0159\u00e1saj\u00ed rukama b\u011bhem setk\u00e1n\u00ed v rusk\u00e9m So\u010di v p\u00e1tek 22. \u0159\u00edjna 2021.\u00a0Foto: Evgeny Bijatov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Podle Bennetta tehdy \u0161lo p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o zachov\u00e1n\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho a jeho vl\u00e1dy, za co\u017e byl Putin ochoten garantovat.\u00a0Putin by tak\u00e9 opustil rusk\u00fd c\u00edl \u201edemilitarizace\u201c a \u201edenacifikace\u201c Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva a Washington tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Bennett zkreslil v\u00fdsledek jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 1962, b\u011bhem kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 krize, americk\u00fd prezident John F. Kennedy obe\u0161el sv\u016fj n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed t\u00fdm a vyslal sv\u00e9ho bratra Roberta Kennedyho na tajn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s rusk\u00fdm velvyslancem v USA Anatolijem Dobryninem.\u00a0Robert Kennedy byl v t\u00e9 dob\u011b gener\u00e1ln\u00edm prokur\u00e1torem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sov\u011btsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikita Chru\u0161\u010dov se zeptal, zda Robert Kennedy jednal pouze jako nez\u00e1visl\u00fd pracovn\u00edk, nebo zda skute\u010dn\u011b mluvil jm\u00e9nem sv\u00e9ho bratra.\u00a0Sov\u011btsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 jm\u00e9nem Alexej Ad\u017eubei, kter\u00fd byl tak\u00e9 zet\u011bm Nikity Chru\u0161\u010dova, provedl 30. ledna 1962 nepublikovan\u00fd rozhovor s prezidentem Kennedym.\u00a0\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka se to\u010dila kolem autority bratra prezidenta Kennedyho.\u00a0Kennedy potvrdil, \u017ee jeho bratr ho skute\u010dn\u011b zastupoval.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Americk\u00fd prezident John Fitzgerald Kennedy (R) a v\u016fdce SSSR Nikita Sergejevi\u010d Chru\u0161\u010dov na cest\u011b na sv\u00e9 prvn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed dne 3. \u010dervna 1961 na zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rozhovor\u016f mezi V\u00fdchodem a Z\u00e1padem ve V\u00eddni, rok p\u0159ed vypuknut\u00edm kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 krize v roce 1962. Prezident Kennedy rozhodl, \u017ee v \u0159\u00edjnu 1962 zah\u00e1jil blok\u00e1du Kuby pot\u00e9, co Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz za\u010dal na ostrov p\u0159epravovat rakety.\u00a0Foto: INTERFOTO<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

To otev\u0159elo dve\u0159e \u0159ad\u011b tajn\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vedla ke sta\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00fdch raket z Kuby a sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch raket Jupiter z Turecka, a\u010dkoliv \u010d\u00e1st dohody o Jupiteru v t\u00e9 dob\u011b nebyla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud m\u00e1 Reznikov pravomoc zah\u00e1jit skute\u010dn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Rusy, mus\u00ed to b\u00fdt schopen Rus\u016fm dok\u00e1zat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud bude Reznikov jednat na vlastn\u00ed p\u011bst, ale bude p\u0159edstavovat v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu, pak jeho iniciativa bude zaj\u00edmat Rusy jako zp\u016fsob, jak rozb\u00edt ukrajinskou jednotu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed v\u0161ak je, \u017ee by mohlo b\u00fdt mo\u017en\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e9 vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se tento krok uk\u00e1\u017ee jako nicotn\u00fd, v\u00e1lka bude pokra\u010dovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Bryen je vedouc\u00edm pracovn\u00edkem Centra pro bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiku a Yorktownsk\u00e9ho institutu.\u00a0Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek byl p\u016fvodn\u011b publikov\u00e1n na jeho substack, Weapons and Strategy.\u00a0Asia Times jej publikuje se svolen\u00edm.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Mo\u017en\u00e1;\u00a0z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, co m\u011bl na mysli ukrajinsk\u00fd ministr obrany Reznikov Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[22,26,5207],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30021"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}