{"id":29739,"date":"2023-06-09T00:59:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-08T22:59:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=29739"},"modified":"2023-06-08T15:35:35","modified_gmt":"2023-06-08T13:35:35","slug":"jak-to-muze-dobre-skoncit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/09\/jak-to-muze-dobre-skoncit\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak to m\u016f\u017ee dob\u0159e skon\u010dit?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenziva Ukrajiny se kone\u010dn\u011b rozj\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed.\u00a0Rusko v\u010dera odrazilo ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na p\u011bti m\u00edstech.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je to velmi ran\u00e9 dny \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to byly testovac\u00ed \u00fatoky navr\u017een\u00e9 k nalezen\u00ed slabin v rusk\u00e9 obran\u011b \u2013 ale tyto \u00fatoky byly mnohem n\u00e1siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed testovac\u00ed \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Budeme muset po\u010dkat a uvid\u00edme, co se stane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e p\u0159ijde hlavn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva, je velmi dobr\u00e1 \u0161ance, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly v ur\u010dit\u00fdch oblastech proraz\u00ed.\u00a0Mohli by obsadit n\u011bjak\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed (s velk\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed a zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed poskytovan\u00fdch USA a NATO), ale jejich zisky pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nevydr\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ofenz\u00edva pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sel\u017ee, jak ji rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly postupn\u011b opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 v regionu n\u011bkolik obrann\u00fdch lini\u00ed opevn\u011bn\u00fdch minov\u00fdmi poli, protitankov\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edkopy, betonov\u00fdmi p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekami zvan\u00fdmi dra\u010d\u00ed zuby atd.\u00a0Jedn\u00e1 se o masivn\u00ed obranu, jej\u00ed\u017e vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed Rusku trvalo m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e Ukrajina prolom\u00ed jednu \u010d\u00e1ru, naraz\u00ed na jinou.\u00a0A je\u0161t\u011b jeden.\u00a0A dal\u0161\u00ed po tom.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee ofenzivy pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho rozsahu vy\u017eaduj\u00ed masivn\u00ed logistickou podporu a nen\u00ed ani zdaleka jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Ukrajina m\u00e1 prost\u0159edky na zah\u00e1jen\u00ed ofenzivy v pln\u00e9m rozsahu.\u00a0Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, Rusko opakovan\u011b m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e9 muni\u010dn\u00ed sklady, dopravn\u00ed spoje, shroma\u017edi\u0161t\u011b atd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm Zelenskyj chce dal\u0161\u00ed raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my Patriot.\u00a0Je to proto, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 ji\u017e zni\u010dili t\u0159etinu syst\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsme dodali.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve tvrdil, Rusko v\u00e1lku vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit poskytnout Ukrajin\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b a podpora v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed kles\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nebo eskalace<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nebo eskalace sm\u011brem k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel se Biden pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozhodne eskalovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejprve \u0159ekl, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 tanky, pak souhlasil, \u017ee po\u0161le tanky.\u00a0Pak \u0159ekl, \u017ee ne F-16, te\u010f souhlasil s vysl\u00e1n\u00edm F-16.\u00a0Nen\u00ed d\u016fvod si myslet, \u017ee to tak z\u016fstane.\u00a0Biden je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hluboko, ne\u017e aby mohl odej\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

A nen\u00ed d\u016fvod si myslet, \u017ee Biden ustoup\u00ed od protirusk\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti budou uvaleny je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed sankce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o americk\u00fdch sankc\u00edch, jak ned\u00e1vno informoval Stratfor:<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty uvalily nov\u00e9 sankce na 69 rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, jednu arm\u00e9nskou a jednu kyrgyzskou spole\u010dnost a zastavily v\u00fdvoz \u0161irok\u00e9 \u0161k\u00e1ly a\u017e 1200 dal\u0161\u00edch produkt\u016f a spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed do Ruska, uvedla 19.\u00a0Nov\u00e9 sankce a restrikce jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed toho, jak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zavedly ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Skupiny sedmi o Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e9 uvedlo z\u00e1m\u011br skupiny roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sankce proti Rusku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Opat\u0159en\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee bude kladen v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fraz na blokov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed obch\u00e1zej\u00ed nebo usnad\u0148uj\u00ed obch\u00e1zen\u00ed sankc\u00ed, ale je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by sankce zabr\u00e1nily vzniku nov\u00fdch strategi\u00ed obch\u00e1zen\u00ed nebo ovlivnily schopnost Ruska pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0P\u0159esto budou p\u0159edstavovat nov\u00e1 rizika pro spole\u010dnosti v \u0159ad\u011b sektor\u016f od spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed po high-tech, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed budou muset zajistit, aby jejich obchodn\u00ed aktivity neporu\u0161ovaly nov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/cite>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond v dubnu d\u00e1le zlep\u0161il progn\u00f3zu rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky.\u00a0Letos o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst o 0,7 %, co\u017e je o 0,4 procentn\u00edho bodu v\u00edce oproti lednov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Selh\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem anal\u00fdzy je zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee tyto protirusk\u00e9 sankce jsou bezprecedentn\u00ed z hlediska rozsahu a po\u010dtu dot\u010den\u00fdch subjekt\u016f.\u00a0USA zmrazily bankovn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a dlouh\u00fd seznam rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.\u00a0Vykopli Rusko z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho mezibankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v SWIFT.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nazvat SWIFT centr\u00e1ln\u00edm nervov\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu nen\u00ed bez nads\u00e1zky.\u00a0Vylou\u010den\u00ed Ruska v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezuje schopnost jeho bank prov\u00e1d\u011bt platby, i kdy\u017e pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed jin\u00e9 m\u011bny ne\u017e americk\u00fd dolar a obchoduj\u00ed s neamerick\u00fdmi bankami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tis\u00edce americk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed ukon\u010dily sv\u00e9 podnik\u00e1n\u00ed v Rusku.\u00a0Bu\u010f ukon\u010dili nebo do\u010dasn\u011b pozastavili svou podnikatelskou \u010dinnost.\u00a0Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 maj\u00ed zak\u00e1z\u00e1no prov\u00e1d\u011bt nov\u00e9 investice v Rusku pod hrozbou vysok\u00fdch pokut nebo v\u011bzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoz strategick\u00fdch kov\u016f z Ruska byl v mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech zak\u00e1z\u00e1n.\u00a0Dovoz polovodi\u010d\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch high-tech produkt\u016f a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed do Ruska byl zak\u00e1z\u00e1n.\u00a0V\u00fdvoz rusk\u00e9 ropy tankery byl zak\u00e1z\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento z\u00e1kaz ropy byl dopln\u011bn samostatn\u00fdm z\u00e1kazem poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1kladu a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy od hlavn\u00edch poskytovatel\u016f, jako je Lloyd’s of London.\u00a0Bez poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina stran ropu nezas\u00edl\u00e1 ani nekoup\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V seznamu lze pokra\u010dovat.\u00a0Neust\u00e1le jsou vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1ny nov\u00e9 c\u00edle a sankce.\u00a0Jak\u00fd je v\u00fdsledek t\u00e9to glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky s finan\u010dn\u00edmi sankcemi?<\/span><\/p>\n

Byl naprost\u00fdm selh\u00e1n\u00edm.\u00a0Rusko jasn\u011b vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 kinetickou v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b a vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 tak\u00e9 v\u00e1lku finan\u010dn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v se\u0161itu nebylo<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd rubl je stejn\u011b siln\u00fd jako p\u0159ed ruskou invaz\u00ed.\u00a0Bidenovo tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee sankce \u201ezni\u010d\u00ed\u201c rubl, bylo jen hork\u00fd vzduch.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika se v roce 2022 propadla asi o 3 % pot\u00e9, co kritici uvedli, \u017ee se zhrout\u00ed o 10 % nebo v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

V leto\u0161n\u00edm roce MMF o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst o 0,7 % pro Rusko, zat\u00edmco mnoho analytik\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 silnou recesi pro USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko snadno obe\u0161lo sankce na v\u00fdvoz ropy pomoc\u00ed \u201eflotily duch\u016f\u201c lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyp\u00ednaly transpond\u00e9ry a p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eely ropu z lodi na lo\u010f, aby zamaskovaly identitu prodejce v p\u0159\u00edstavu vykl\u00e1dky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159\u00edstup nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd.\u00a0Obchodn\u00edk s komoditami Marc Rich ud\u011blal tot\u00e9\u017e ze sv\u00e9ho z\u00e1mku ve \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9m Zugu v 90. a 20. stolet\u00ed, aby obe\u0161el sankce za v\u00fdvoz ropy uvalen\u00e9 na \u00cdr\u00e1n a Ir\u00e1k.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kazy poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed se tak\u00e9 uk\u00e1zaly jako ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9.\u00a0Existuj\u00ed jednoduch\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, jako je samopoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, kaptivn\u00ed poji\u0161\u0165ovac\u00ed spole\u010dnosti a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed od nebojkotov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno USA uvalily dal\u0161\u00ed sankce na dva hlavn\u00ed t\u011b\u017ea\u0159e zlata v Rusku.\u00a0To je nesmysl jen pro uk\u00e1zku.\u00a0Zlato je prvek s atomov\u00fdm \u010d\u00edslem 79. Jakmile se roztav\u00ed a odlije do ty\u010d\u00ed, je nevysledovateln\u00e9.\u00a0M\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tajn\u011b p\u0159epravov\u00e1n po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b letecky a prod\u00e1v\u00e1n na trz\u00edch od \u0160anghaje po Singapur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zlato je zlato a jde, kam chce.\u00a0Americk\u00e9 sankce nebudou m\u00edt jin\u00fd dopad ne\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zoufalstv\u00ed ze sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch bojkot\u016f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti mnoho velk\u00fdch sv\u011btov\u00fdch zem\u00ed zauj\u00edm\u00e1 neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed postoj a nepodporuje americk\u00e9 sankce.\u00a0Mezi tyto neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed strany pat\u0159\u00ed Indie, \u010c\u00edna, Ji\u017en\u00ed Afrika a Braz\u00edlie, kter\u00e9 dohromady tvo\u0159\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 40 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie, \u010c\u00edna a Braz\u00edlie jsou t\u0159i z deseti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ekonomik na sv\u011bt\u011b a spole\u010dn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed 24 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na v\u00fd\u0161e citovan\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b o sankc\u00edch je nov\u00e9, \u017ee USA jsou nyn\u00ed zoufal\u00e9, proto\u017ee sankce nepo\u0161kozuj\u00ed Rusko a nem\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA za\u010daly uplat\u0148ovat takzvan\u00e9 sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed bojkoty.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sankce nejsou nam\u00ed\u0159eny p\u0159\u00edmo proti Rusku, ale proti zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 s Ruskem obchoduj\u00ed a ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed se pokyny USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010c\u00edna \u00fadajn\u011b prod\u00e1v\u00e1 polovodi\u010de Rusku, zat\u00edmco Braz\u00edlie prod\u00e1v\u00e1 letadla a Indie prod\u00e1v\u00e1 drony.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna a Indie tak\u00e9 z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed ropu z Ruska.\u00a0Uv\u00e1d\u00ed se tak\u00e9, \u017ee Ji\u017en\u00ed Afrika zah\u00e1jila prodej zbran\u00ed do Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echny tyto prodeje jsou v rozporu s americk\u00fdmi sankcemi USA \u00fadajn\u011b za\u010dnou uvalovat samostatn\u00e9 sankce na \u010c\u00ednu, Braz\u00edlii, Indii a Ji\u017en\u00ed Afriku za nedodr\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak to m\u016f\u017ee dob\u0159e skon\u010dit?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto nov\u00e9 sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed bojkotov\u00e9 sankce nejsou dob\u0159e p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1ny.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna, Braz\u00edlie, Indie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Afrika nebudou ne\u010dinn\u011b sed\u011bt u sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch bojkot\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odvd\u011b\u010d\u00ed se po sv\u00e9m.\u00a0Sankce za s\u00fdkoru za da\u0148 nebudou Rusko ani v nejmen\u0161\u00edm brzdit, ale povedou k dal\u0161\u00edmu poklesu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu, kter\u00fd byl naposledy zaznamen\u00e1n b\u011bhem Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee sankce neskon\u010d\u00ed, dokud se Rusko pln\u011b nest\u00e1hne z Ukrajiny, v\u010detn\u011b Krymu.\u00a0Rusko se nejen nest\u00e1hne, ale bude i nad\u00e1le dosahovat velk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch a \u00fazemn\u00edch zisk\u016f.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva to nezm\u011bn\u00ed, pokud se j\u00ed nepoda\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ekonat velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sankce z\u016fstanou v platnosti po neomezenou dobu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Znamen\u00e1 to tak\u00e9, \u017ee Biden t\u011b\u017ece zat\u011b\u017eoval glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod vedle dal\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00fdm glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika ji\u017e \u010del\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investor\u016fm se doporu\u010duje p\u0159esunout sv\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed do hotovosti, zlata a dal\u0161\u00edch hmotn\u00fdch aktiv.\u00a0To budou skute\u010dn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9, pokud se v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b prot\u00e1hne.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenziva Ukrajiny se kone\u010dn\u011b rozj\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed.\u00a0Rusko v\u010dera odrazilo ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,125,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29739"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}