{"id":29506,"date":"2023-06-06T01:02:29","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T23:02:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=29506"},"modified":"2023-06-05T17:56:27","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T15:56:27","slug":"jiri-paroubek-porovnani-preferenci-politickych-stran-ctyr-agentur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/06\/jiri-paroubek-porovnani-preferenci-politickych-stran-ctyr-agentur\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed preferenc\u00ed politick\u00fdch stran \u010dty\u0159 agentur"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159es v\u00edkend zve\u0159ejnila agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed STEM sv\u016fj \u010derstv\u00fd, kv\u011btnov\u00fd pr\u016fzkum preferenc\u00ed politick\u00fdch stran. Pro zaj\u00edmavost, v\u00fdsledky tohoto pr\u016fzkumu STEMu porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me s jin\u00fdmi, posledn\u00edmi pr\u016fzkumy t\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch agentur pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, ov\u0161em za p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee tyto \u010dty\u0159i agentury pracuj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e1 pon\u011bkud jinou metodou (a za m\u011bs\u00edc se n\u00e1zory ve\u0159ejnosti v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 turbulentn\u00ed dob\u011b mohly posunout), ale jist\u00e1 komparace je podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru mo\u017en\u00e1 a nutn\u00e1, aby se vylou\u010dily krajn\u00ed pohledy na politick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj.<\/p>\n

Nelze se zbavit dojmu, \u017ee takovou krajn\u00ed progn\u00f3zou volebn\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu jsou \u010d\u00edsla agentury Kantar CZ.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jej\u00ed v\u00fdsledky v\u017edy pon\u011bkud podce\u0148uj\u00ed preference hnut\u00ed ANO a v\u011bt\u0161inou vid\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017eli ostatn\u00ed agentury preference p\u011bti vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stran (a tak\u00e9 protibabi\u0161ovsk\u00e9 \u010cSSD).<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed k\u00a0preferenc\u00edm jednotliv\u00fdch stran. Hnut\u00ed ANO by podle STEM z\u00edskalo, pokud by se uskute\u010dnily volby do sn\u011bmovny v\u00a0kv\u011btnu, 33,5% volebn\u00ed podpory. Je to v\u00a0podstat\u011b druh\u00e1 agentura vedle SANEPu, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed s\u00a0takovou progn\u00f3zou. Naopak Median a zejm\u00e9na Kantar CZ jsou na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech. Osobn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee hnut\u00ed je schopno se dostat a udr\u017eet dlouhodob\u011b na cca 35 %. K sestaven\u00ed vl\u00e1dy v\u0161ak bude pot\u0159ebovat partnera… A to zat\u00edm p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nevypad\u00e1.<\/p>\n

ODS by podle kv\u011btnov\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu STEM dos\u00e1hla na 14,6% hlas\u016f voli\u010d\u016f, tzn. \u017ee m\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20% odstup za preferencemi hnut\u00ed ANO. To je v\u00a0politice obrovsk\u00e1 propast. Kantar CZ ov\u0161em odhaduje \u0161ance ODS na 17%(!). Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek t\u00e9to strany m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u011bkde mezi 14 \u2013 15% hlas\u016f. Odhad agentury Kantar.cz vypad\u00e1 jako \u010dir\u00e9 fandovstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pir\u00e1ti maj\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b, s\u00a0ohledem na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulovou v\u00fdkonnost jejich ministr\u016f ve vl\u00e1d\u011b, pom\u011brn\u011b solidn\u00ed volebn\u00ed preference. V\u0161echny \u010dty\u0159i agentury se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee volebn\u00ed preference t\u00e9to strany dosahuj\u00ed v\u00a0podstat\u011b m\u00edrn\u011b p\u0159es jednu desetinu voli\u010d\u016f (mezi 10 \u2013 11%).<\/p>\n

Opozi\u010dn\u00ed hnut\u00ed SPD se se sv\u00fdmi preferencemi pohybuje pod 10%. Sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u0161ak kolem 9%.<\/p>\n

Hnut\u00ed STAN m\u00e1 preference velmi rozd\u00edln\u00e9 podle jednotliv\u00fdch agentur. Odhady jej\u00edho volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku u \u010dty\u0159 agentur se pohybuj\u00ed mezi 4,7 \u2013 7,5%. Zd\u00e1 se ov\u0161em, \u017ee 7,5% je anom\u00e1ln\u00ed,\u00a0 snov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00e9ho hnut\u00ed nen\u00ed moment\u00e1ln\u011b\u00a0 schopno dos\u00e1hnout. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek hnut\u00ed je n\u011bkde m\u00edrn\u011b nad 5% volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku.<\/p>\n

Preference parlamentn\u00ed strany TOP 09 se dlouhodob\u011b pohybuj\u00ed pod 5%, jen jedna agentura jim d\u00e1v\u00e1 v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech \u0161ance na zte\u010den\u00ed 5% volebn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry pro volby do sn\u011bmovny.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed parlamentn\u00ed stranou, kter\u00e1, pokud by kandidovala samostatn\u011b, by m\u011bla velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s prosazen\u00edm se do sn\u011bmovny, je KDU-\u010cSL, jej\u00ed\u017e preference jsou tak\u00e9 dlouhodob\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161e pod 5% (v koridoru odhad\u016f mezi 3,4 \u2013 5,5%).<\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasnosti neparlamentn\u00ed \u010cSSD je podle odhad\u016f jen jedin\u00e9 agentury (Kantar.CZ) nad 5%. Dv\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed agentury odhaduj\u00ed jej\u00ed preference nad 4%. U agentury SANEP, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kartelu tzv. renomovan\u00fdch agentur, byl odhad volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed \u010cSSD (nen\u00ed uveden v\u00a0t\u00e9to tabulce) 1,6% preferenc\u00ed…Realita volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku t\u00e9to strany je n\u011bkde mezi 2 a\u017e 3 %.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee volebn\u00ed preference t\u00e9to strany u jedn\u00e9 agentury je hodn\u011b p\u0159ehnan\u00e1, pon\u011bkud tenden\u010dn\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, jako by to bylo sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed marketingu p\u0159ed sjezdem t\u00e9to strany 10. \u010dervna (\u017ee by z\u00e1sah vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moci anebo princip\u00e1la Barty?). Marketingu, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 pomoci sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu p\u0159edsedovi \u010cSSD \u0160mardovi b\u00fdt na sjezdu \u010cSSD znovu zvolen p\u0159edsedou na dal\u0161\u00ed t\u0159i(!) roky.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed politickou stranou v\u00a0pr\u016fzkumech je KS\u010cM, jej\u00ed\u017e preference se pohybuj\u00ed u \u010dty\u0159 agentur mezi 2,5 \u2013 4% voli\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

A ostatn\u00ed politick\u00e9 strany jako P\u0159\u00edsaha, Zelen\u00ed a Svobodn\u00ed jsou podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f zcela bez \u0161ance proniknout do sn\u011bmovny a mluvit do vysok\u00e9 politiky. Jejich preference se pohybuj\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b nad 2%.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 jsou volebn\u00ed preference nov\u00e9 strany, PRO, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 podle STEMu 1,2% preferenc\u00ed. Ale podle SANEPu dokonce 6,7%.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji tuto stranu budou muset br\u00e1t i zaveden\u00e9 agentury pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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P\u0159es v\u00edkend zve\u0159ejnila agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed STEM sv\u016fj \u010derstv\u00fd, kv\u011btnov\u00fd pr\u016fzkum preferenc\u00ed politick\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12760,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[29,27,4716],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29506"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29506"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29508,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29506\/revisions\/29508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}