{"id":29419,"date":"2023-06-05T01:07:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-04T23:07:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=29419"},"modified":"2023-06-04T14:45:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-04T12:45:33","slug":"deutsche-bank-hrozi-vlna-nesplaceni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/05\/deutsche-bank-hrozi-vlna-nesplaceni\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank: Hroz\u00ed vlna nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Agresivn\u00ed zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank podle strat\u00e9g\u016f ohro\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Cyklus rozmachu a propadu se letos vr\u00e1t\u00ed a hroz\u00ed vlna nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed firemn\u00edch dluh\u016f, zejm\u00e9na v USA a Evrop\u011b, varovala Deutsche Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed studie banky, kter\u00e1 byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna ve st\u0159edu, se nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed ze strany spole\u010dnost\u00ed stanou b\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi ne\u017e za posledn\u00edch 20 let.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Deutsche o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00edra selh\u00e1n\u00ed dos\u00e1hne vrcholu ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2024. Banka p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala, \u017ee maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edra selh\u00e1n\u00ed dos\u00e1hne 9 % u americk\u00e9ho dluhu s vysok\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem, 11,3 % u americk\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek, 4,4 % u evropsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f s vysok\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem a 7,3 % u evropsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. p\u016fj\u010dky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Odhadovan\u00e1 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edra nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f v USA je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 historicky nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s vrcholem 12 % b\u011bhem celosv\u011btov\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v letech 2007\u20132008 a 7,7 % b\u011bhem bubliny internetov\u00fdch obchod\u016f na konci 90. let, uk\u00e1zala studie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>\u201eNa\u0161e indik\u00e1tory cyklu signalizuj\u00ed, \u017ee se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdchoz\u00ed vlna,\u201c<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0napsali ekonomov\u00e9 z Deutsche.\u00a0<\/span><em><span>\u201eNejp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politika Fedu a ECB za posledn\u00edch 15 let se st\u0159et\u00e1v\u00e1 s vysokou p\u00e1kou postavenou na nata\u017een\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00edch.\u00a0A takticky n\u00e1\u0161 ukazatel \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho cyklu v USA vys\u00edl\u00e1 investor\u016fm nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nepandemick\u00fd varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l od doby p\u0159ed GFC [glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed].\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 poznamenali, \u017ee velikost a d\u00e9lka cyklu mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm.\u00a0<\/span><em><span>\u201eA\u010dkoli na\u0161e progn\u00f3zy pouze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed n\u00e1vrat cyklu Boom Bust, nikoli \u0161ok ve stylu GFC,\u201c<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0dodali.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Agresivn\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, v\u010detn\u011b americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, kter\u00e9 pokra\u010duj\u00ed v boji proti nekontrolovan\u00e9 inflaci, zv\u00fd\u0161ilo rizika glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recese, varovala Deutsche.\u00a0Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomika EU, N\u011bmecko, ji\u017e vstoupila do recese.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>&#8222;M\u00e1me podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed recese bude prvn\u00ed od doby, kdy americk\u00e1 technologick\u00e1 bublina zp\u016fsob\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm trh\u016fm v\u00edce bolesti ne\u017e re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomice,&#8220;<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0varovali odborn\u00edci.\u00a0<\/span><em><span>\u201eFiremn\u00ed p\u00e1ka je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1.\u00a0A glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 trhy z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z v\u00fdroby a prodeje fyzick\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed ne\u017e re\u00e1ln\u00e1 ekonomika jako celek,\u201c<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0uzav\u0159eli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1283\" height=\"154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1283px) 100vw, 1283px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Agresivn\u00ed zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank podle strat\u00e9g\u016f ohro\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku Cyklus rozmachu&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[528,1181,59,84],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29419"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29419"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29419\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29421,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29419\/revisions\/29421"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}