{"id":29295,"date":"2023-06-03T01:00:37","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T23:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=29295"},"modified":"2023-06-02T16:28:32","modified_gmt":"2023-06-02T14:28:32","slug":"pepe-escobar-sultan-2-0-bude-vyrazne-orientovan-na-vychod","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/03\/pepe-escobar-sultan-2-0-bude-vyrazne-orientovan-na-vychod\/","title":{"rendered":"Pepe Escobar: Sult\u00e1n 2.0 bude v\u00fdrazn\u011b orientov\u00e1n na v\u00fdchod"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nen\u00ed to tak, \u017ee by Erdogan m\u011bl pl\u00e1n p\u0159esunout se na v\u00fdchod na \u00fakor z\u00e1padu.\u00a0Prost\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed infrastruktura, rozvoj a geopolitick\u00e9 projekty na sv\u011bt\u011b jsou dnes v\u0161echny na v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad ho cht\u011bl poh\u0159b\u00edt \u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e1 chyba, kter\u00e1 nezohlednila n\u00e1ladu tureck\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f v hlubok\u00e9 Anatolii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec to ud\u011blal Recep Tayyip Erdogan \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b jednou.\u00a0P\u0159es v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 nedostatky se mu jako st\u00e1rnouc\u00edmu novoosmansk\u00e9mu Sinatrovi poda\u0159ilo \u201em\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem\u201c udr\u017eet tureck\u00e9 prezidentstv\u00ed pot\u00e9, co ho odp\u016frci t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 poh\u0159bili.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed geopolitickou prioritou je, kdo bude jmenov\u00e1n ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0Hlavn\u00edm kandid\u00e1tem je Ibrahim Kalin \u2013 sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u0161emocn\u00fd Erdogan\u016fv tiskov\u00fd tajemn\u00edk a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed poradce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00edm Cavusogluem by se Kalin teoreticky dal klasifikovat jako v\u00edce proz\u00e1padn\u00ed.\u00a0Je to v\u0161ak sult\u00e1n, kdo to \u0159\u00edd\u00ed.\u00a0Bude vzru\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed sledovat, jak bude Turecko pod Erdoganem 2.0 \u0159\u00eddit posilov\u00e1n\u00ed vazeb se z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asi\u00ed a zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed se proces euroasijsk\u00e9 integrace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed prioritou je z Erdoganova pohledu eliminace \u201eteroristick\u00e9ho koridoru\u201c v S\u00fdrii.\u00a0V praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kurdsk\u00e9 YPG\/PYD podporovan\u00e9 Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 jsou ve skute\u010dnosti syrsk\u00fdmi odno\u017eemi Strany kurdsk\u00fdch pracuj\u00edc\u00edch (PKK), mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zatla\u010deny zp\u011bt \u2013 probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd je tak\u00e9 j\u00e1drem mo\u017en\u00e9 normalizace vztah\u016f. se stojany Dama\u0161ek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e byla S\u00fdrie po 12let\u00e9 p\u0159est\u00e1vce nad\u0161en\u011b v\u00edt\u00e1na zp\u011bt do Arabsk\u00e9 ligy, mohla by Moskvou zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e1 dohoda mezi tureck\u00fdm a syrsk\u00fdm prezidentem, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1, p\u0159edstavovat pro Erdogana kone\u010dn\u00fd win-win: umo\u017enit kontrolu nad Kurdy v severn\u00ed S\u00fdrii a z\u00e1rove\u0148 usnadnit repatriaci asi \u010dty\u0159 milion\u016f uprchl\u00edk\u016f (desetitis\u00edce z\u016fstanou jako levn\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla).<\/span><\/p>\n

Sult\u00e1n je na tom nejl\u00e9pe, pokud jde o zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch s\u00e1zek mezi V\u00fdchodem a Z\u00e1padem.\u00a0Moc dob\u0159e v\u00ed, jak t\u011b\u017eit ze statutu Turecka jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho \u010dlena NATO \u2013 s jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch arm\u00e1d, s pr\u00e1vem veta a kontrolou p\u0159\u00edstupu k transstrategick\u00e9mu \u010cern\u00e9mu mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n

A to v\u0161e p\u0159i uplat\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, od z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie po v\u00fdchodn\u00ed St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1vejte tedy, \u017ee Erdogan 2.0 z\u016fstane nesmazateln\u00fdm zdrojem podr\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed pro neokony a neoliber\u00e1ly odpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku USA spolu s jejich vazaly EU, kte\u0159\u00ed se nikdy nep\u0159estanou pokou\u0161et podrobit Ankaru, aby mohli bojovat proti euroasijsk\u00e9 integra\u010dn\u00ed dohod\u011b Rusko-\u010c\u00edna-\u00cdr\u00e1n. .\u00a0Sult\u00e1n v\u0161ak p\u0159esn\u011b v\u00ed, jak tuto hru hr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jednat s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 se stane cokoliv, Erdogan nenasko\u010d\u00ed na pot\u00e1p\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed se lo\u010f sankc\u00ed proti Rusku.\u00a0Kreml koupil tureck\u00e9 dluhopisy spojen\u00e9 s v\u00fdstavbou Ruskem postaven\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny Akkuyu, prvn\u00edho tureck\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho reaktoru.\u00a0Moskva povolila Anka\u0159e odlo\u017eit platby za energii t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 4 miliardy dolar\u016f do roku 2024.\u00a0Nejlep\u0161\u00ed na tom je, \u017ee Ankara plat\u00ed za rusk\u00fd plyn v rublech.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158ada obchod\u016f souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s rusk\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami energie tak p\u0159ed\u010dila mo\u017en\u00e9 sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed sankce, kter\u00e9 by mohly c\u00edlit na st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed export Turecka.\u00a0P\u0159esto je jist\u00e9, \u017ee USA se uch\u00fdl\u00ed ke sv\u00e9 jedin\u00e9 \u201ediplomatick\u00e9\u201c politice \u2013 sankc\u00edm.\u00a0Sankce z roku 2018 nakonec zatla\u010dily Turecko do recese.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdogan ale m\u016f\u017ee v Turecku klidn\u011b po\u010d\u00edtat s podporou ve\u0159ejnosti.\u00a0Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku pr\u016fzkum Gezici zjistil, \u017ee 72,8 procenta tureck\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f preferuje dobr\u00e9 vztahy s Ruskem, zat\u00edmco t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 90 procent klasifikuje USA jako \u201enep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd\u201c n\u00e1rod.\u00a0To umo\u017e\u0148uje ministru vnitra Soyluovi bez obalu \u0159\u00edci: „Vyma\u017eeme ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo p\u016fsob\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee, v\u010detn\u011b americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce mezi \u010c\u00ednou a Tureckem spad\u00e1 pod to, co Erdogan popisuje jako \u201eobrat na v\u00fdchod\u201c \u2013 a jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd projekt multikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed infrastruktury, iniciativu Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).\u00a0Pobo\u010dka tureck\u00e9 Hedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezky BRI se zam\u011b\u0159uje na to, co Peking naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201eSt\u0159edn\u00ed koridor\u201c, co\u017e je n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e1 a bezpe\u010dn\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed cesta spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Asii s Evropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hnac\u00ed silou je China Railway Express, kter\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u011bl\u00e1 ze st\u0159edn\u00edho koridoru p\u00e1te\u0159 BRI.\u00a0Elektronick\u00e9 d\u00edly a \u0159ada dom\u00e1c\u00edch pot\u0159eb, mimo jin\u00e9, kter\u00e9 b\u011b\u017en\u011b p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00edm letadlem z japonsk\u00e9 \u00d3saky, jsou nakl\u00e1d\u00e1ny do n\u00e1kladn\u00edch vlak\u016f do Duisburgu a Hamburku v N\u011bmecku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm China Railway Express z Shenzhen, Wuhan a Changsha – a p\u0159es Alataw Pr\u016fjezd ze Sin-\u0165iangu do Kazachst\u00e1nu a d\u00e1le.\u00a0P\u0159evozy z Chongqing do N\u011bmecka trvaj\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 13 dn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee kdy\u017e p\u0159ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10 lety \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching p\u0159edstavil sv\u016fj ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed multibilionov\u00fd BRI v kaza\u0161sk\u00e9 Astan\u011b, prohl\u00e1sil China Railway Express za kl\u00ed\u010dovou sou\u010d\u00e1st BRI.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od prosince 2020 jezd\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed vlaky z Xianu do Istanbulu po \u017eeleznici Baku-Tblisi-Kars (BTK) s dobou j\u00edzdy necel\u00e9 dva t\u00fddny \u2013 a pl\u00e1nuje se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed jejich frekvence.\u00a0Peking si je dob\u0159e v\u011bdom v\u00fdhody Turecka jako dopravn\u00edho uzlu a uzlu pro trhy na Balk\u00e1n\u011b, Kavkaze, st\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii a severn\u00ed Africe, nemluv\u011b o celn\u00ed unii s EU, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup na evropsk\u00e9 trhy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Baku ve v\u00e1lce o N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach v roce 2020 nav\u00edc p\u0159ineslo bonus v podob\u011b dohody o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed: Zangezursk\u00fd koridor, kter\u00fd v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku umo\u017en\u00ed Turecku p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k jeho soused\u016fm od Kavkazu po St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pantureck\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A zde vstupujeme do zaj\u00edmav\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed: mo\u017en\u00e9 nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed interpolace mezi Organizac\u00ed tureck\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f (OTS), \u0160anghajskou organizac\u00ed pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) a BRICS+ \u2013 a to v\u0161e tak\u00e9 ve spojen\u00ed s n\u00e1r\u016fstem investic Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a Emir\u00e1t\u016f do tureck\u00e9ho byznysu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sultan 2.0 se chce st\u00e1t plnohodnotn\u00fdm \u010dlenem jak \u010c\u00ednou veden\u00e9 SCO, tak multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed BRICS+.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1 mnohem u\u017e\u0161\u00ed spojen\u00ed se strategick\u00fdm partnerstv\u00edm mezi Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou a tak\u00e9 s arabsk\u00fdmi mocnostmi, kter\u00e9 rovn\u011b\u017e naskakuj\u00ed na vlak BRICS+.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdogan 2.0 se ji\u017e zam\u011b\u0159uje na dva hlavn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010de ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Asii a ji\u017en\u00ed Asii: Uzbekist\u00e1n a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n.\u00a0Oba jsou n\u00e1hodou \u010dleny SCO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ankara a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d se velmi shoduj\u00ed.\u00a0Maj\u00ed jeden n\u00e1zor na extr\u00e9mn\u011b citlivou ot\u00e1zku Ka\u0161m\u00edru a oba podporovali \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n proti Arm\u00e9nii.<\/span><\/p>\n

K z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji by v\u0161ak mohlo doj\u00edt ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii.\u00a0Ankara a Ta\u0161kent podepsaly strategickou dohodu o obran\u011b, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje sd\u00edlen\u00ed informac\u00ed a logistickou spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Organizace tureck\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f (OTS) se s\u00eddlem v Istanbulu je hlavn\u00edm impulsem pro panturkismus nebo panturanismus.\u00a0Turecko, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, Kazachst\u00e1n, Uzbekist\u00e1n a Kyrgyzst\u00e1n jsou \u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdmi \u010dleny, zat\u00edmco Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n, Turkmenist\u00e1n, Ma\u010farsko a Ukrajina jsou pozorovateli.\u00a0O turecko-\u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9m vztahu se v pan-tureck\u00e9m pojet\u00ed mluv\u00ed jako o \u201ejeden n\u00e1rod, dva st\u00e1ty\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed my\u0161lenkou je st\u00e1le nejasn\u00e1 \u201eplatforma spolupr\u00e1ce\u201c mezi St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkazem.\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy v\u0161ak ji\u017e byly p\u0159edlo\u017eeny.\u00a0Na summitu OTS v Samarkandu koncem minul\u00e9ho roku byla p\u0159edstavena my\u0161lenka bloku voln\u00e9ho obchodu TURANCEZ, kter\u00fd by zahrnoval Turecko, Kazachst\u00e1n, Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, Uzbekist\u00e1n, Turkmenist\u00e1n, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n a jako pozorovatel\u00e9 Ma\u010farsko (zastupuj\u00edc\u00ed EU) a severn\u00ed Kypr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm je podnik\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9.\u00a0Aby Turecko pln\u011b t\u011b\u017eilo ze sv\u00e9ho postaven\u00ed energetick\u00e9ho tranzitn\u00edho uzlu, pot\u0159ebuje nejen rusk\u00fd plyn, ale tak\u00e9 plyn z Turkmenist\u00e1nu p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fd do transanatolsk\u00e9ho plynovodu (TANAP) a kaza\u0161skou ropu p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u011bnou p\u0159es Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan. potrub\u00ed (BTC) p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tureck\u00e1 agentura pro spolupr\u00e1ci a koordinaci (TIKA) se v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod\u00edl\u00ed na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci a pod\u00edl\u00ed se na \u0159ad\u011b projekt\u016f v oblasti dopravy, stavebnictv\u00ed, t\u011b\u017eby a ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu.\u00a0Ankara ji\u017e investovala neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 85 miliard dolar\u016f ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Asii a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 4 000 spole\u010dnost\u00ed je rozpt\u00fdleno po v\u0161ech stanech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Asii ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem.\u00a0Most nav\u00edc vede do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie p\u0159es \u00cdr\u00e1n.\u00a0Doposud se zd\u00e1, \u017ee rivalita mezi Ankarou a Teher\u00e1nem je normou, ale to by se mohlo bleskov\u011b zm\u011bnit, pokud bude sou\u010dasn\u011b vybudov\u00e1n mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dopravn\u00ed koridor Sever-Jih (INSTC) v \u010dele s Ruskem, \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Indi\u00ed, z \u010deho\u017e budou m\u00edt prosp\u011bch ob\u011b strany \u2013 a kdy\u017e se \u00cdr\u00e1nci a Turci mohou brzy st\u00e1t plnopr\u00e1vn\u00fdmi \u010dleny BRICS+.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sultan 2.0 je povinen podpo\u0159it investice ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii jako nov\u00e9 geoekonomick\u00e9 hranici.\u00a0U\u017e jen z tohoto d\u016fvodu existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee Turecko brzy vstoup\u00ed do SCO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pak se naplno projev\u00ed \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed na v\u00fdchod\u201c soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s u\u017e\u0161\u00edm propojen\u00edm se strategick\u00fdm partnerstv\u00edm Ruska a \u010c\u00edny.\u00a0V\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee vztahy Turecka s Kazachst\u00e1nem, Uzbekist\u00e1nem a Kyrgyzst\u00e1nem jsou rovn\u011b\u017e strategick\u00e1 partnerstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed to \u0161patn\u00e9 na neo-osmana, kter\u00fd byl je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny odm\u00edtnut jako opot\u0159ebovan\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Nen\u00ed to tak, \u017ee by Erdogan m\u011bl pl\u00e1n p\u0159esunout se na v\u00fdchod na \u00fakor z\u00e1padu.\u00a0Prost\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,56,29,122,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29295"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}