{"id":29283,"date":"2023-06-02T07:13:49","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T05:13:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=29283"},"modified":"2023-06-02T07:13:49","modified_gmt":"2023-06-02T05:13:49","slug":"andrew-korybko-kyjev-celi-sedmi-klicovym-vyzvam-pred-svou-protiofenzivou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/06\/02\/andrew-korybko-kyjev-celi-sedmi-klicovym-vyzvam-pred-svou-protiofenzivou\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Kyjev \u010del\u00ed sedmi kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m p\u0159ed svou protiofenz\u00edvou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u011bchto sedm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch v\u00fdzev bude pro Kyjev velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ekonat, tak\u017ee je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdsledkem jeho tolik medializovan\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy budou jen n\u011bkter\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 zm\u011bny pod\u00e9l linie kontaktu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed Rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti USA John Kirby\u00a0<\/span>potvrdil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed protiofenz\u00edva Kyjeva podporovan\u00e1 NATO\u00a0<\/a>za\u010dne n\u011bkdy letos v l\u00e9t\u011b, tak\u017ee je na\u010dase diskutovat o kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch v\u00fdzv\u00e1ch, kter\u00fdm bude \u010delit.\u00a0Prvn\u00ed a nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z nich je \u201ez\u00e1vod logistiky\u201c\/\u201eopot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lka\u201c mezi\u00a0<\/a>NATO a Ruskem,\u00a0kterou gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk Jens Stoltenberg vyhl\u00e1sil v polovin\u011b \u00fanora.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Kyjev je zcela z\u00e1visl\u00fd na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed podpo\u0159e, je stav konkurence t\u011bchto dvou nejz\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prom\u011bnnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd souvis\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm a t\u00fdk\u00e1 se toho, \u017ee kyjevsk\u00e9 s\u00edly vycvi\u010den\u00e9 NATO je\u0161t\u011b nebyly vyzkou\u0161eny v bitv\u011b.\u00a0P\u0159es v\u0161echen ten humbuk kolem nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed protiofenz\u00edvy se teprve uvid\u00ed, zda budou fungovat podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee nemaj\u00ed zku\u0161enosti s prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch operac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Rusko se pou\u010dilo ze sv\u00fdch nedostatk\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za op\u011btovn\u00e9 dobyt\u00ed Charkova a poloviny Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti ze\u00a0<\/span><\/a>strany Ukrajiny\u00a0<\/span>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sn\u00ed\u017eila \u0161ance, \u017ee se to bude opakovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o toto t\u00e9ma, t\u0159et\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou v\u00fdzvou protiofenz\u00edvy je, \u017ee Rusko opevnilo svou obranu pod\u00e9l linie kontaktu (LOC).\u00a0Kyjev se proto bude sna\u017eit dos\u00e1hnout pr\u016flomu bez n\u011bjak\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti \u010dern\u00e9 labut\u011b, co\u017e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nelze vylou\u010dit, ale p\u0159esto se zd\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.\u00a0Nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>bitva o Artyomovsk\u00a0<\/span><\/a>naplnila rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly neoceniteln\u00fdmi zku\u0161enostmi z m\u011bstsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 mohou vyu\u017e\u00edt k obran\u011b velk\u00fdch m\u011bst pod jejich kontrolou, co\u017e by mohlo vytvo\u0159it dal\u0161\u00ed ml\u00fdnky na maso pro Kyjev.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vede ke \u010dtvrt\u00e9mu bodu, kter\u00fdm je, \u017ee Ukrajina za posledn\u00edch 15 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f ji\u017e vy\u010derpala velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed sv\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed a person\u00e1lu.\u00a0Upozornil na to list\u00a0<\/span>Washington Post\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ve sv\u00e9 podrobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b z poloviny b\u0159ezna, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>polsk\u00fd n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk arm\u00e1dn\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>vyj\u00e1d\u0159il d\u016fv\u011bru ve sv\u00e9m podobn\u00e9m hodnocen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 sd\u00edlel koncem dubna.\u00a0Tato objektivn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed prokyjevsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed protiofenz\u00edvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli t\u011bmto obav\u00e1m Ukrajina vkl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u00e9 nad\u011bje do takzvan\u00fdch \u201ewunderwaffen\u201c,\u00a0<\/span>jako jsou F-16\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ale i \u0161\u00e9f americk\u00e9ho letectva Frank Kendell\u00a0<\/span>koncem kv\u011btna prohl\u00e1sil,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u017ee takov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my nebudou \u201edramatickou hrou\u201c. -m\u011bn\u00edc…pro jejich celkov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti.“\u00a0Krom\u011b toho Rusko ji\u017e prok\u00e1zalo, \u017ee je schopno se p\u0159izp\u016fsobit Kyjevu, kter\u00fd nasadil d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed takov\u00e9 \u201ewunderwaffen\u201c, jako jsou tureck\u00e9 bezpilotn\u00ed letouny Bayraktar, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dou\u00a0<\/span>financovan\u00ed experti z USA a Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ned\u00e1vno p\u0159ipustili, \u017ee Moskva \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b neutralizovala.<\/span><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bnou p\u00e1tou kl\u00ed\u010dovou v\u00fdzvu, \u0161est\u00e1 zahrnuje rostouc\u00ed \u00fanavu Z\u00e1padu z neomezen\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1stupn\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a><\/span>NATO-Rusko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e st\u00e1la jejich da\u0148ov\u00e9 poplatn\u00edky\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 160 miliard dolar\u016f\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0P\u0159edseda zahrani\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdboru Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f Michael McCaul\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tkem kv\u011btna varoval,\u00a0<\/a>\u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed neschopnost protiofenz\u00edvy splnit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti by mohla v\u00e9st ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed budouc\u00ed podpory, co\u017e odhaluje sliby ostatn\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f o bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 podpo\u0159e jako l\u017ei.<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b posledn\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd p\u016fsob\u00ed proti p\u0159\u00edzni Kyjeva p\u0159ed jeho protiofenz\u00edvou, je spln\u011bn\u00ed nerealisticky vysok\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, o kter\u00fdch McCaul mluvil i p\u0159es ohromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200b\u0161ance.\u00a0Nejmenovan\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Bidenovy administrativy \u0159ekli\u00a0<\/span>Politico\u00a0<\/span><\/a>koncem dubna, \u017ee se velmi ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee se to nestane, co\u017e za\u0159azuje\u00a0<\/span>\u0159\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a><\/span>ukrajinsk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>teroristick\u00fdch\u00a0<\/a>\u00fatok\u016f od t\u00e9 doby do jejich vhodn\u00e9ho kontextu t\u00edm, \u017ee odhaluje,\u00a0<\/a>\u017ee\u00a0<\/a>to nejsou nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e infov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 copium k nasycen\u00ed krvela\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch mas. . \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u011bchto sedm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch v\u00fdzev bude pro Kyjev velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ekonat, tak\u017ee je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdsledkem jeho tolik medializovan\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy budou pouze omezen\u00e9 zm\u011bny pod\u00e9l LOC.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee by to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b vyvolalo hlubok\u00e9 zklam\u00e1n\u00ed mezi z\u00e1padn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed, mohlo by se velmi dob\u0159e st\u00e1t, \u017ee tento p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b nev\u00fdrazn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek p\u0159\u00edmo povede k obnoven\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f\u00a0<\/span><\/a>do konce roku, co\u017e by mohlo konflikt zmrazit p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, ne-li ho rovnou ukon\u010dit. s n\u011bjak\u00fdm kompromisem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko<\/a><\/p>\n

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T\u011bchto sedm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch v\u00fdzev bude pro Kyjev velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ekonat, tak\u017ee je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdsledkem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29284,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,29,220,221],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29283"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29283\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}