{"id":28185,"date":"2023-05-16T11:04:35","date_gmt":"2023-05-16T09:04:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=28185"},"modified":"2023-05-16T11:04:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-16T09:04:35","slug":"the-economist-vysoke-ceny-energii-zabily-minulou-zimu-68-000-evropanu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/05\/16\/the-economist-vysoke-ceny-energii-zabily-minulou-zimu-68-000-evropanu\/","title":{"rendered":"The Economist: Vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed zabily minulou zimu 68 000 Evropan\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Energetick\u00e1 krize lo\u0148sk\u00e9 zimy byla mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1, ne\u017e mnoz\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddali \u2013 z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti d\u00edky neobvykle tepl\u00e9mu po\u010das\u00ed.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti byly roky 2022-23 \u201edruhou nejteplej\u0161\u00ed zimou v Evrop\u011b v historii\u201c, tak\u017ee popt\u00e1vka po zemn\u00edm plynu byla mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by jinak byla.<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto byla zima a lid\u00e9 museli vyt\u00e1p\u011bt sv\u00e9 domovy.\u00a0Podle\u00a0<\/span>The Economist<\/span><\/a>\u00a0odradily od toho mnoho Evropan\u016f vysok\u00e9 ceny plynu, co\u017e m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek dal\u0161\u00edch 68 000 \u00famrt\u00ed na kontinentu.\u00a0The Economist to dokonce p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl a m\u011bl pravdu \u2013 alespo\u0148 to tvrd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak p\u0159i\u0161li k \u010d\u00edslu 68 000?\u00a0Za prv\u00e9, poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee mezi listopadem 2022 a \u00fanorem 2023 do\u0161lo k 149 000 nadm\u011brn\u00fdm \u00famrt\u00edm \u2013 to je o 8 % v\u00edce, ne\u017e je p\u011btilet\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br z let 2015\u20132019.\u00a0Asi 60 000 bylo ofici\u00e1ln\u011b zaznamen\u00e1no jako \u00famrt\u00ed na covid, tak\u017ee tyto byly ode\u010dteny z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9 bylo zkoum\u00e1no, zda ceny energi\u00ed korelovaly s m\u00edrou nadm\u011brn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed bez Covid v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch, a zjistilo se, \u017ee tomu tak bylo (viz graf n\u00ed\u017ee).<\/span><\/p>\n

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Grafika p\u0159evzat\u00e1 z Drah\u00e9 energie mo\u017en\u00e1 minulou zimu zabila v\u00edce Evropan\u016f ne\u017e Covid-19.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Existuje siln\u00e1 pozitivn\u00ed souvislost mezi cenami energie a nadm\u011brn\u00fdm po\u010dtem \u00famrt\u00ed bez Covid na 100 000 obyvatel.\u00a0V\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed mezi zem\u011b s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi cenami energie a mezi zem\u011b s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem \u00famrt\u00ed na Covid.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Economist provedl model, kter\u00fd zohlednil r\u016fzn\u00e9 faktory a zjistil, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,10 EUR za kilowatthodinu bylo spojeno s t\u00fddenn\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstem \u00famrtnosti zem\u011b o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,2 %.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kdyby se ceny energi\u00ed nezv\u00fd\u0161ily, v Evrop\u011b by zem\u0159elo o 68 000 m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e1m v\u0161ak probl\u00e9m s metodikou: zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jako m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko v\u00fdsledku byl pou\u017eit absolutn\u00ed po\u010det nadm\u011brn\u00fdch \u00famrt\u00ed na 100 000 lid\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti nebere v \u00favahu st\u00e1rnut\u00ed a \u201eodm\u011b\u0148uje\u201c zem\u011b s ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed porodnost\u00ed.\u00a0Zkreslen\u00ed v\u0161ak nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by to v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ovlivnilo jejich anal\u00fdzu.\u00a0(Skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt o 10\u201315 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem tak\u00e9 odhaduj\u00ed, kolik \u017eivot\u016f bylo zachr\u00e1n\u011bno energetick\u00fdmi dotacemi, a do\u0161li k \u010d\u00edslu 26 600.\u00a0Vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee dotace byly v \u0159\u00e1du 600 miliard eur, vych\u00e1z\u00ed to na zhruba 25 milion\u016f eur na zachr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fd \u017eivot \u2013 co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad obvykl\u00fdmi odhady pro \u201ehodnotu statistick\u00e9ho \u017eivota\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

R\u016fst cen energi\u00ed za posledn\u00ed rok byl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zp\u016fsoben nejistotou zp\u016fsobenou ruskou invaz\u00ed a byl tedy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nevyhnuteln\u00fd.\u00a0Bylo to v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli sankc\u00edm, kter\u00e9 si Evropa sama ulo\u017eila proti rusk\u00e9mu energetick\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu, a tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli rozhodnut\u00ed Ruska omezit dod\u00e1vky plynu (p\u0159ed sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed projektu Nord Stream).<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ned\u00e1vno poznamenal Spectator v \u00favodn\u00edku, sankce proti Rusku z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti selhaly, nezastavily Rusko ve veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky, nato\u017e aby zm\u011bnily rubl na trosky“ a pomohly \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm, na\u0161im domn\u011bl\u00fdm rival\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed mohli levn\u011b nakupovat energii.<\/span><\/p>\n

A aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, zab\u00edjeli i star\u0161\u00ed Evropany.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Energetick\u00e1 krize lo\u0148sk\u00e9 zimy byla mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1, ne\u017e mnoz\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddali \u2013 z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[285,371,523],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28185"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28185\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}