{"id":27893,"date":"2023-05-12T05:38:25","date_gmt":"2023-05-12T03:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=27893"},"modified":"2023-05-12T05:38:25","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T03:38:25","slug":"michael-svatos-odborny-odhad-letosnich-ukrajinskych-ztrat-na-ruske-fronte-v-dobe-od-1-ledna-do-12-kvetna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/05\/12\/michael-svatos-odborny-odhad-letosnich-ukrajinskych-ztrat-na-ruske-fronte-v-dobe-od-1-ledna-do-12-kvetna\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Odborn\u00fd odhad leto\u0161n\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t na rusk\u00e9 front\u011b v dob\u011b od 1. ledna do 12. kv\u011btna"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"post-title entry-title\">Anal\u00fdza nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy, kterou zat\u00edm skv\u011bl\u00fdm man\u00e9vrem odrazil kucha\u0159 Prigo\u017ein!<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Odborn\u00fd odhad leto\u0161n\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t na rusk\u00e9 front\u011b v dob\u011b od 1. ledna do 12. kv\u011btna:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Celkem bylo nevratn\u011b vy\u0159azeno z boje: 38 847 ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Z toho:\u00a0 Padl\u00ed 11 500. Vy\u0159azen\u00ed trvalou invaliditou 27 347.<\/li>\n<li>Dal\u0161\u00edch 80 570 ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f utrp\u011blo zran\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 US Army klasifikuje jako 15 a\u017e 60% service-connected disability, a jejich pou\u017eit\u00ed po odborn\u00e9m vyl\u00e9\u010den\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed slu\u017ebu v prvn\u00ed linii prakticky nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed do \u00favahy.<\/li>\n<li>Dal\u0161\u00edch 7 072 voj\u00e1k\u016f bylo do\u010dasn\u011b vy\u0159azeno zran\u011bn\u00edmi, po jejich\u017e odborn\u00e9m vyl\u00e9\u010den\u00ed mohou b\u00fdt nasazeni do prvn\u00ed linie. Service-connected disability je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e 15%.<\/li>\n<li>Dal\u0161\u00edch a\u017e 80 500 voj\u00e1k\u016f bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zran\u011bno velmi lehce, a po vyl\u00e9\u010den\u00ed nebudou v dal\u0161\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b v poli omezeni.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee boje nezm\u011bn\u00ed intenzitu, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b letos padne 32 000 Ukrajinc\u016f. 76 000 bude posti\u017eeno r\u016fzn\u00fdm stupn\u011bm invalidity. A 223 tis\u00edc utrp\u00ed zdravotn\u00ed posti\u017een\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je vy\u0159ad\u00ed z vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby v prvn\u00ed linii.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K v\u00fdpo\u010dtu jsme pou\u017eili tyto statistick\u00e9 \u00fadaje a odborn\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly a zpr\u00e1vy:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Jmenn\u00fd soupis padl\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f z oblasti Poltava,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/poltava.to\/tag\/1284\/\">kter\u00fd zve\u0159ej\u0148uje m\u00edstn\u00ed oblastn\u00ed rada po dohod\u011b se svazem m\u00edstn\u00edch veter\u00e1n\u016f<\/a>. Podle soupisu letos padlo 397 obyvatel oblasti. Oblast Poltavy p\u0159edstavuje<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C\">\u00a03,22 % obyvatel Ukrajiny<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>V\u00fdpo\u010det po\u010dt\u016f poh\u0159b\u016f v oblasti Ukrajiny Voly\u0148, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C\">2,24% obyvatel Ukrajiny<\/a>. Podle po\u010dt\u016f poh\u0159b\u016f jsme zjistili, \u017ee v oblasti jsou pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 3 vojensk\u00e9 poh\u0159by denn\u011b. A to odpov\u00edd\u00e1 396 padl\u00fdm za leto\u0161n\u00ed rok. Oblast Volyn\u011b je historick\u00fdm j\u00e1drem ukrajinsk\u00e9ho nacionalismu a hnut\u00ed Bandery, kde\u017eto oblast Poltavy je v\u00edce neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed. (Podrobn\u011b v\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-1673-pocty-padlych-ukrajinskych-vojaku-narostly-v-kvetnu-o-50-oproti-lednu-analyza-poctu-vojenskych-pohrbu-v-oblasti-volyne-ktera-je-znamou-zakladnou-banderovskeho-hnuti-na-ukrajine-a-ktera-se\/\">MAP 1676<\/a>, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-1596-kyjevu-se-to-hrouti-v-baste-nacionalistu-se-ukrajinci-uz-bouri-proti-nasilnym-odvodum-pohrby-padlich-se-na-volyni-konaji-nekolikrat-denne\/\">MAP 1596<\/a>.)<\/li>\n<li>Odbornou studii Harvard Kennedy School,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/publication\/nonfatal-casualties-and-changing-costs-war\">\u00a0kter\u00e1 definuje pom\u011br padl\u00fdch a ran\u011bn\u00fdch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f v posledn\u00edch konfliktech<\/a>\u00a0v pom\u011bru 1 ku 10 a\u017e 1 ku 17 v z\u00e1vislosti na \u00farovni konfliktu a m\u00ed\u0159e nasazen\u00ed pozemn\u00edch sil. Pro v\u00fdpo\u010det po\u010dtu st\u0159edn\u011b a t\u011b\u017ece zran\u011bn\u00fdch jsme pou\u017eili \u00fadaj 1 ku 10 z d\u016fvod\u016f ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 medic\u00edny. Obvykl\u00fd \u00fadaj pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd \u010desk\u00fdmi m\u00e9dii 1 ku 6 jsme nepou\u017eili, proto\u017ee Ukrajina 11.kv\u011btna ozn\u00e1mila,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unian.ua\/war\/medik-erik-gleba-rozpoviv-pro-stan-viyskovoji-medicini-v-ukrajini-ta-poryatunok-biyciv-na-fronti-12252561.html?_gl=1*14s5b3m*_ga*ODA3NTkxMzYzLjE2NDU4ODEzNTc.*_ga_TECJ2YKWSJ*MTY4Mzg1NDY4NS4xNjQuMS4xNjgzODU0NjkwLjU1LjAuMA..*_ga_DENC12J6P3*MTY4Mzg1NDY4NS4xNjUuMS4xNjgzODU0NjkwLjU1LjAuMA..*_ga_238PLP1PQZ*MTY4Mzg1NDY4Ni4xNjQuMS4xNjgzODU0NjkwLjU2LjAuMA..*_ga_P6EEJX21DY*MTY4Mzg1NDY4Ni4xNjUuMS4xNjgzODU0NjkwLjU2LjAuMA..\">\u00a0\u017ee ve vojensk\u00e9m zdravotnictv\u00ed dos\u00e1hla standardizace NATO<\/a>, a proto\u017ee zem\u011b NATO z\u00e1silkami l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 a zdravotn\u00ed pomoci zna\u010dn\u011b zlep\u0161ily \u00farove\u0148 ukrajinsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho zdravotnictv\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/pdf\/vet.pdf\">Odbornou zpr\u00e1vu americk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho \u00fa\u0159adu BLS z b\u0159ezna leto\u0161n\u00edho roku<\/a>, kter\u00e1 specifikuje pod\u00edl americk\u00fdch veter\u00e1n\u016f, \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f Druh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v z\u00e1livu, kter\u00fdm byla po propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, p\u0159izn\u00e1na v r\u016fzn\u00e9m stupni service-connected disability.<\/li>\n<li>P\u0159i v\u00fdpo\u010dtu jsme opravili procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed pod\u00edl obyvatel oblast\u00ed Poltava a Voly\u0148 na celkov\u00e9m po\u010dtu obyvatel Ukrajiny o v\u0161echna ztracen\u00e1 a obsazen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed od roku 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Posledn\u00ed velitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fdkony Putinova kucha\u0159e Prigo\u017eina p\u0159i odra\u017een\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho pokusu o obchvat Bachmutu, ve dnech 8 a\u017e 11. kv\u011btna,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pucara.org\/post\/guerra-de-ucrania-d%C3%ADa-441\">\u00a0vysoce ocenili dokonce i jihoameri\u010dt\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed analytici<\/a>, kte\u0159\u00ed jinak nem\u016f\u017eou Putinovi ani Rusku p\u0159ij\u00edt na jm\u00e9no!<\/p>\n<p>V souladu s na\u0161\u00edm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-1656-putin-pukne-smichy-protoze-vcerejsi-chamtiva-hadka-mezi-washingtonem-a-kyjevem-o-4-miliardy-usd-na-vyplaty-vojakum-odhalila-skutecne-pocty-ukrajinske-armady\/\">viz MAP 1666<\/a>), Ukrajina provedla o tomto v\u00edkendu prvn\u00ed rychl\u00fd n\u00e1jezd lehce obrn\u011bn\u00fdch jednotek na vytipovanou \u0159\u00eddce br\u00e1n\u011bnou ruskou linii. Jak jsme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, Ukrajinci soust\u0159edili do \u00fazk\u00e9ho prostoru \u00fatoku dostatek d\u011blost\u0159electva, z\u00edskali palebnou p\u0159evahu, kterou rusk\u00e9 drony nedok\u00e1zali potla\u010dit, a skupinami slo\u017een\u00fdmi z n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo tank\u016f a des\u00edtek lehk\u00fdch obrn\u011bn\u00fdch vozidel rychle p\u0159epravili do m\u00edsta boj\u016f zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed \u010derstv\u00e9, vycvi\u010den\u00e9 a motivovan\u00e9 p\u011bchoty. Ta si lehce poradila s nepo\u010detn\u00fdmi, a zejm\u00e9na, ne\u010dekanou ukrajinskou d\u011blost\u0159eleckou p\u0159evahou a rychlost\u00ed \u00faderu, ot\u0159esen\u00fdmi \u0159adov\u00fdmi rusk\u00fdmi p\u011b\u0161\u00e1ky. Ukrajinci je d\u00edlem post\u0159\u00edleli, d\u00edlem obr\u00e1tili na \u00fat\u011bk a d\u00edlem zajali. Ru\u0161t\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed bloge\u0159i propadli zu\u0159ivosti, proto\u017ee pr\u00fd napaden\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 p\u011bchota nem\u011bla protitankov\u00e9 zbran\u011b, d\u011blost\u0159electvo m\u011blo jen 0.2 palebn\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru, a velitel\u00e9 brig\u00e1d dr\u017eeli z\u00e1lohy a\u017e 40km od m\u00edsta \u00faderu. T\u00edm pr\u00fd do\u0161lo k situaci, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edjezd rusk\u00fdch posil na boji\u0161t\u011b, ji\u017e narazil na dob\u0159e zformovanou ukrajinskou obranu v dobyt\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch pozic\u00edch, a byl krvav\u011b odra\u017een. Z rusk\u00fdch tank\u016f pr\u00fd po 40 km p\u0159esunu na boji\u0161t\u011b z\u016fstalo neporouchan\u00fdch 10%, a ty je\u0161t\u011b nem\u011bly ani v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9 gran\u00e1ty, nutn\u00e9 k likvidaci p\u011bchoty. Ru\u0161t\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00edci dokonce v\u010dera ve\u010der propadali panice, stejn\u011b jako loni na podzim,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/wargonzo\/12458\">a \u0161\u00ed\u0159ili zv\u011bsti, \u017ee Bachmut je u\u017e obkl\u00ed\u010den<\/a>. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, Ukrajinci dos\u00e1hli sm\u011bl\u00fdmi a rychl\u00fdmi \u00fatoky do 04.00 12. kv\u011btna n\u011bkolika vlom\u016f do rusk\u00e9 obrany severn\u011b a ji\u017en\u011b od Bachmutu. K pr\u016flomu hluboce \u010dlen\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 obrany to m\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b daleko.<\/p>\n<p>Podle jihoamerick\u00fdch analytik\u016f oba \u00fadery severn\u011b i ji\u017en\u011b od Bachmutu, mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b rychlou reakc\u00ed a brilantn\u00edm man\u00e9vrem z\u00e1lohami, zastavil kucha\u0159 Prigo\u017ein, kter\u00fd proti Ukrajinc\u016fm vyslal sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1lohy. W\u00e1gner\u016fv elitn\u00ed orchestr op\u011bt dok\u00e1zal, \u017ee si bez probl\u00e9mu porad\u00ed i s ukrajinsk\u00fdmi elitn\u00edmi formacemi, kter\u00e9 se \u00fatoku \u00fa\u010dastnily, a d\u00edlem je zatla\u010dil zp\u011bt, a nebo je p\u0159inutil ukon\u010dit \u00fatoky. T\u00edm rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed velen\u00ed dok\u00e1zalo na boji\u0161t\u011b kone\u010dn\u011b dopravit z\u00e1lohy a \u00fatok Ukrajinc\u016f zat\u00edm zastavit. Podle Jihoameri\u010dan\u016f se op\u011bt uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee elitn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 formace dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ekvapit a rozpr\u00e1\u0161it ruskou \u0159adovou p\u011bchotu, ale proti elitn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm v\u00fdsadk\u00e1\u0159\u016fm a zejm\u00e9na W\u00e1gnerovu orchestru jsou bezmocn\u00e9. P\u0159ikov\u00e1ny k zemi se pak stanou nevyhnutelnou ob\u011bt\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho d\u011blost\u0159electva. Novinkou oproti podzimu podle Jihoameri\u010dan\u016f je, \u017ee tentokr\u00e1te Rusov\u00e9 dok\u00e1zali arm\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1lohy a posily dopravit na m\u00edsto pr\u016flomu sv\u00e9 obrany do 24 hodin, a v p\u016fsobiv\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed. Co\u017e zna\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee Putin na rozd\u00edl od podzimu dr\u017e\u00ed za frontou v arm\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1loze siln\u00e9 a dob\u0159e vycvi\u010den\u00e9 formace. Taktick\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy \u0159adov\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch brig\u00e1d jsou ov\u0161em oproti arm\u00e1dn\u00edm z\u00e1loh\u00e1m jen slab\u00fdm odvarem, jak do kvality mu\u017estva, velitel\u016f i zbran\u00ed. To d\u00e1v\u00e1 Ukrajinc\u016fm \u0161anci v t\u011bchto \u00fatoc\u00edch pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n<p>K podobn\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm, jako byl \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd u Bachmutu, doch\u00e1zelo z ukrajinsk\u00e9 strany i jinde, ale v\u0161echny byly odra\u017eeny.<\/p>\n<p>Celkov\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br Jihoameri\u010dan\u016f \u2013 Ukrajinci m\u011bli p\u0159i \u00fatoku u Bachmutu v\u00edce \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed ne\u017e rozumu, a p\u0159i dal\u0161\u00edch boj\u00edch podobn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem se jim tato taktiky vymst\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha je pr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 jednozna\u010dn\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>(Zpracov\u00e1no na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto zdroj\u016f:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pucara.org\/post\/guerra-de-ucrania-d%C3%ADa-441\">Pucara<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rybar.ru\/obstanovka-v-bahmute-k-ishodu-11-maya\/\">Rybar<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/wargonzo\">WarGonzo<\/a>, S<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/swodki\">wodki<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-1675-odborny-odhad-letosnich-ukrajinskych-ztrat-na-ruske-fronte-v-dobe-od-1-ledna-do-12-kvetna-analyza-nejnovejsi-ukrajinske-protiofenzivy-kterou-zatim-skvelym-manevrem-odrazil-kuchar-prigozin\/\">Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-27204\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png 180w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>___________________<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1275\" height=\"153\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1275px) 100vw, 1275px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Anal\u00fdza nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy, kterou zat\u00edm skv\u011bl\u00fdm man\u00e9vrem odrazil kucha\u0159 Prigo\u017ein! Odborn\u00fd odhad leto\u0161n\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,26,40,2369],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27893"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}