{"id":2768,"date":"2021-06-24T04:33:24","date_gmt":"2021-06-24T02:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=2768"},"modified":"2021-06-24T04:33:24","modified_gmt":"2021-06-24T02:33:24","slug":"mengelove-soucasnosti-2-varianta-delta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/06\/24\/mengelove-soucasnosti-2-varianta-delta\/","title":{"rendered":"Mengelov\u00e9 sou\u010dasnosti 2 \u2013 varianta Delta"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201eTemn\u00e9 mraky na obzoru. \u0160v\u00e9dsko varuje<\/a>\u00a0p\u0159ed variantou delta\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u0160v\u00e9dsko d\u011bs\u00ed indick\u00e1 mutace koronaviru, kter\u00e1 je o 60 procent naka\u017eliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u016fvodn\u00ed virus. \u0160\u00e9f \u0160v\u00e9dsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho zdrav\u00ed Johan Carlson dokonce mluv\u00ed o \u201etemn\u00fdch mrac\u00edch na obzoru\u201c. Nal\u00e9hav\u011b \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 obyvatele zem\u011b, aby se nechali o\u010dkovat, proto\u017ee vakcinace by m\u011bla zabr\u00e1nit \u010dtvrt\u00e9 vln\u011b pandemie.\u201c<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
Slovensko kv\u016fli mutac\u00edm delty\u00a0op\u011bt zp\u0159\u00edsn\u00ed re\u017eim na hranic\u00edch<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201eSlovensko p\u0159ipravuje kv\u016fli \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed delty, naka\u017eliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mutace koronaviru, zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed pravidel vstupu do zem\u011b pro lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed nebyli proti covidu-19 o\u010dkov\u00e1ni.\u201c<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy se na n\u00e1s denn\u011b hrnou z m\u00e9di\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je to opravdu podivn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Indie se ze stisku varianty Delta vymanila b\u011bhem jednoho m\u011bs\u00edce s\u00a0pou\u017eit\u00edm \u0161irok\u00e9 profylaxe levn\u00e9ho l\u00e9ku Ivermectin, kter\u00fd byl z\u00a0rozhodnut\u00ed ministra zdravotnictv\u00ed doru\u010den v\u0161em ob\u010dan\u016fm star\u0161\u00edm 18 let.<\/p>\n

WHO proti tomuto rozhodnut\u00ed protestovala a n\u011bkolik indick\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f n\u00e1sledn\u011b Ivermectin odm\u00edtlo.<\/p>\n

Indick\u00e1 advok\u00e1tn\u00ed komora pak za\u017ealovala WHO za \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed dezinformac\u00ed o l\u00e9ku Ivermectin<\/a>.<\/p>\n

V indick\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, ve kter\u00fdch prob\u00edhala profylaxe a l\u00e9\u010den\u00ed Ivermectinem, se\u00a0b\u011bhem jednoho m\u011bs\u00edce sn\u00ed\u017eil v\u00fdskyt varianty Delta o 80 i v\u00edce procent<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ve st\u00e1tech, kter\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed Ivermectinu odm\u00edtly, se n\u00e1kaza naopak rozrostla.<\/p>\n

Indie m\u00e1 nao\u010dkovan\u00e1 pouh\u00e1 2% populace.<\/p>\n

Brit\u00e1nie vsadila na rozs\u00e1hlou vakcinaci a dosa\u017een\u00ed kolektivn\u00ed imunity. P\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak to doporu\u010duje Sv\u011btov\u00e1 zdravotnick\u00e1 organizace WHO.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0dokumentu \u201eCOVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 24<\/a>\u201c se na str.3 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee 79,1 % dosp\u011bl\u00e9 britsk\u00e9 populace m\u00e1 protil\u00e1tky proti Covid-19, z toho 14,8 % jsou protil\u00e1tky z\u00edskan\u00e9 prod\u011bl\u00e1n\u00edm nemoci, zbytek je z\u00edsk\u00e1n vakcinac\u00ed. A d\u00e1le, \u017ee 98 % Brit\u016f star\u0161\u00edch 49 let m\u00e1 protil\u00e1tky na Covid-19 z\u00edskan\u00e9 prod\u011bl\u00e1n\u00edm nemoci \u010di vakcinac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed Brit\u00e1nie – nejproo\u010dkovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed – nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m s\u00a0variantou Delta Covid-19.\u00a0Denn\u011b se nakaz\u00ed koronavirem 10.633 lid\u00ed, je to od minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne n\u00e1r\u016fst o 37%<\/a>\u00a0a po\u010dty rostou ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed t\u00fdden v \u0159ad\u011b.<\/p>\n

Kam se n\u00e1m pod\u011bla tou\u017eebn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 kolektivn\u00ed imunita, kdy\u017e m\u00e1 cca 80 % britsk\u00e9 dosp\u011bl\u00e9 populace protil\u00e1tky na Covid-19?<\/p>\n

Brit\u00e1nie m\u00e1 nejen nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010dty p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f Covid-19 v\u00a0Evrop\u011b, ale vede i v\u00a0po\u010dtu mutac\u00ed viru Sars-Cov-2, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0Brit\u00e1nii vznikly.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0Indii s\u00a01,366 miliardou obyvatel vznikly t\u0159i mutace viru SARS-CoV-2. Podle tabulky 1 na str. 6-7 dokumentu \u201eSARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical briefing 15, 11 June 2021<\/a>\u201c z\u00e1pas\u00ed Brit\u00e1nie v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti s\u00a026 mutacemi viru Sars-Cov-2, z\u00a0nich\u017e p\u011bt vzniklo p\u0159\u00edmo v\u00a0Brit\u00e1nii.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee l\u00e9ka\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed masov\u00fdm o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee zp\u016fsob\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst mutac\u00ed viru, maj\u00ed pravdu. Ale mo\u017en\u00e1 je pr\u00e1v\u011b st\u00e1l\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst mutac\u00ed viru jedn\u00edm z\u00a0c\u00edl\u016f, kter\u00fdch m\u00e1 b\u00fdt dosa\u017eeno.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Brit\u00e1nie m\u00e1 z\u00a0evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed nejv\u00edce zku\u0161enost\u00ed s\u00a0virem Delta.<\/p>\n

Prozkoumejme tedy britsk\u00fd vl\u00e1dn\u00ed web, pomi\u0148me r\u016fzn\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady a odhady a pod\u00edvejme se, co n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla a odkazovan\u00e9 v\u011bdeck\u00e9 publikace.<\/p>\n

Co konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v\u00edme o variant\u011b Delta?<\/p>\n

1. Je velmi naka\u017eliv\u00e1, ale jej\u00ed smrtnost je 0,1 %. viz \u2013 tabulka 4 na str. 11 v\u00fd\u0161e citovan\u00e9ho dokumentu \u201eSARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical briefing 15, 11 June 2021\u201c.<\/p>\n

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\"[Klikn\u011bte
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Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed:\u00a0Smrtnost varianty Alfa, kter\u00e1 u n\u00e1s od \u00fanora a b\u0159ezna 2021 p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1<\/a>, je \u2013 podle t\u00e9\u017ee tabulky – 1,9 %.<\/p>\n

Varianta Delta m\u00e1 tedy cca 20x NI\u017d\u0160\u00cd SMRTNOST ne\u017e varianta Covidu, kterou tu pr\u00e1v\u011b m\u00e1me.<\/p>\n

2. V\u00a0dokumentu \u201eCOVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 24<\/a>\u201c odkazuje britsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da na stran\u011b 6 dole na v\u011bdeckou publikaci \u201eEffectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinesagainst the Delta variant<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Tato publikace nepro\u0161la procesem peer-review, ale britsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se j\u00ed evidentn\u011b \u0159\u00edd\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podle t\u00e9to publikace JE VARIANTA DELTA M\u00c9N\u011a NAKA\u017dLIV\u00c1 PRO NEO\u010cKOVANOU POPULACI \u2013 viz abstrakt, odstavec Results, posledn\u00ed v\u011bta:<\/p>\n

\u201eSequenced cases detected after 1 or 2 doses of vaccination had a higher odds of infection with B.1.617.2 compared to unvaccinated cases (OR 1.40; 95%CI: 1.13-1.75).\u201c (Sekvenovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady po prvn\u00ed a po druh\u00e9 d\u00e1vce vakc\u00edny jsou v\u00edce n\u00e1chyln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k\u00a0n\u00e1kaze variantou Delta ne\u017e nevakcinovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Pod\u00edvejme se na tabulku z\u00a0t\u00e9to publikace:<\/p>\n

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Tabulka ukazuje pod\u00edl p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f s\u00a0variantou Delta (B.1.617.2) ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s hlavn\u00edm cirkuluj\u00edc\u00ed variantou Alfa (B.1.1.7) ve skupin\u00e1ch s\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdm st\u00e1diem o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed. Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm p\u0159edpokladem bylo, \u017ee pokud je vakc\u00edna proti Delt\u011b M\u00c9N\u011a \u00da\u010cINN\u00c1, d\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee varianta Delta bude v\u00a0r\u016fzn\u011b o\u010dkovan\u00fdch skupin\u00e1ch (v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i t\u00fddny po o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed) ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s neo\u010dkovan\u00fdmi jedinci tvo\u0159it vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f a naopak.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0tabulce je vid\u011bt, \u017ee tomu tak opravdu je.<\/p>\n

Sloupec \u201eNumber of cases\u201c je rozd\u011blen na britskou variantu Alfa=B.1.1.7 (u n\u00e1s p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed) a indickou variantu Delta=B.1.617.2. \u010c\u00edsla pod ka\u017edou variantou znamenaj\u00ed jej\u00ed v\u00fdskyt ve\u00a0skupin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Ve\u00a0\u010dtvrt\u00e9m sloupci \u201eratio B.1.617.2 to B.1.1.7\u201c vid\u00edme, \u017ee:<\/p>\n