{"id":27476,"date":"2023-05-06T01:04:37","date_gmt":"2023-05-05T23:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=27476"},"modified":"2023-05-05T18:25:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-05T16:25:35","slug":"ceka-bankovni-sektor-apokalypsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/05\/06\/ceka-bankovni-sektor-apokalypsa\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cek\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed sektor apokalypsa?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e je n\u00e1m \u0159e\u010deno, \u017ee je v\u0161e v po\u0159\u00e1dku, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se to jen zhor\u0161uje.\u00a0Bankovn\u00ed krize m\u011bla b\u00fdt po krachu Silicon Valley Bank a Signature Bank \u201eukon\u010dena\u201c.\u00a0Ale nebyla.\u00a0Pak by m\u011bl b\u00fdt \u201ekonec\u201c po rozpadu prvn\u00ed republiky.\u00a0Ale nebyla.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina z v\u00e1s u\u017e v\u00ed, co se stalo s akciemi PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon a bezpo\u010dtem dal\u0161\u00edch region\u00e1ln\u00edch bankovn\u00edch akci\u00ed.\u00a0Za cel\u00e9 sv\u00e9 roky jsem nikdy nevid\u011bl, \u017ee akcie bank klesaj\u00ed tak rychle.\u00a0Pokud bude tato lavina nab\u00edrat na rychlosti, brzy ji\u017e nebudeme muset mluvit o \u201ebankovn\u00ed krizi\u201c, ale o \u201ebankovn\u00ed apokalypse\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ironicky si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee\u00a0CNN<\/a>\u00a0shrnula sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav v\u011bc\u00ed l\u00e9pe ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd…<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ehled stavu v\u011bc\u00ed v bankovn\u00ed krizi:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Fed: „Banky jsou v po\u0159\u00e1dku.“<\/span><\/cite>Ministerstvo financ\u00ed: „Banky si vedou dob\u0159e.“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Banky: „Jsme v po\u0159\u00e1dku.“<\/span><\/cite>Wall Street: „V\u0161ichni prod\u00e1vejte, banky ho\u0159\u00ed!“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ve \u010dtvrtek PacWest vydal pe\u010dliv\u011b formulovan\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je uklidnit investory…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Na\u0161e poselstv\u00ed je v souladu s t\u00edm, co jsme sd\u00edleli s v\u00fdsledky minul\u00fd t\u00fdden.\u00a0Jak ji\u017e bylo d\u0159\u00edve ozn\u00e1meno, spole\u010dnost p\u0159ezkoumala prodeje strategick\u00fdch aktiv, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159evodu \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho portfolia Lender Finance ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,7 miliardy USD do dr\u017een\u00e9ho k prodeji v Q1 23. Tento navrhovan\u00fd prodej pokra\u010duje a bude sledov\u00e1n a n\u00e1\u0161 kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd pom\u011br CET1 p\u0159es\u00e1hl 10 % (od 9,21 % v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 23) do jej\u00edho dokon\u010den\u00ed.\u00a0Spole\u010dnost a jej\u00ed p\u0159edstavenstvo nav\u00edc v souladu se standardn\u00ed prax\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b prov\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti.\u00a0Spole\u010dnost ned\u00e1vno oslovilo n\u011bkolik potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch partner\u016f a investor\u016f \u2013 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le prob\u00edhaj\u00ed.\u00a0Spole\u010dnost bude nad\u00e1le vyhodnocovat v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ale m\u00edsto toho toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed spustilo masivn\u00ed vlnu paniky a akcie klesly o v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 procent…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokles region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank pokra\u010doval ve \u010dtvrtek r\u00e1no, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkolik akci\u00ed utrp\u011blo zna\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

PacWest klesl o 50,6 % a byl n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t zastaven kv\u016fli volatilit\u011b.\u00a0Posun za\u010dal ve st\u0159edu ve\u010der pot\u00e9, co bylo odhaleno, \u017ee banka se s\u00eddlem v Los Angeles vyhodnocuje strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho prodeje.<\/span><\/cite>Z\u00e1padn\u00ed aliance klesla o 38 procent pot\u00e9, co se vzep\u0159ela zpr\u00e1v\u011b Financial Times, \u017ee zva\u017euje prodej banky…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Western Alliance vyhodnocuje strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho prodeje cel\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, uvedl ve \u010dtvrtek list Financial Times s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na dva lidi obezn\u00e1men\u00e9 s touto z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Banka se s\u00eddlem v Arizon\u011b si najala konzultanty, aby zhodnotili jej\u00ed mo\u017enosti, uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va.\u00a0\u00davahy banky jsou v ran\u00e9 f\u00e1zi a nemus\u00ed v\u00e9st k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku.<\/span><\/cite>A akcie spole\u010dnosti First Horizon p\u0159i otev\u0159en\u00ed klesly o 37 procent pot\u00e9, co jej\u00ed f\u00faze s Toronto-Dominion Bank propadla…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akcie First Horizon Corp\u00a0se propadl o 37 % na otev\u0159en\u00ed baru v New Yorku a zaznamenal nejprud\u0161\u00ed pokles od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2008.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bloomberg ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee First Horizon dnes uspo\u0159\u00e1dala konferen\u010dn\u00ed hovor, aby uklidnila investory pot\u00e9, co byla \u201eukon\u010dena dohoda o f\u00fazi s Toronto-Dominion Bank\u201c.\u00a0Region\u00e1ln\u00ed banka uvedla, \u017ee m\u00e1 \u201estabiln\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c a dostate\u010dn\u00fd kapit\u00e1l.<\/span><\/cite>To jsou t\u0159i velk\u00e1 jm\u00e9na, kter\u00e1 se pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f objevuj\u00ed v titulc\u00edch, ale na pokraji bankrotu je mnohem v\u00edce instituc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 studie hroz\u00ed krach 186 dal\u0161\u00edm bank\u00e1m\u201c…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po b\u0159eznov\u00e9m krachu Silicon Valley Bank a Signature Bank studie o zranitelnosti americk\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu zjistila, \u017ee 186 dal\u0161\u00edm bank\u00e1m hroz\u00ed kolaps, i kdy\u017e jen polovina jejich nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch vkladatel\u016f (nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vkladatel\u00e9 ztrat\u00ed jednu \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch vklad\u016f pokud banka zkolabuje, co\u017e by mohlo zp\u016fsobit jejich \u00fat\u011bk), rozhodnout se vybrat sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd je tedy kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pointa je, \u017ee situace je \u0161patn\u00e1 a te\u010f, kdy\u017e se Fed rozhodl znovu zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, se to bude zhor\u0161ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

V dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku je jen velmi m\u00e1lo bank skute\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch.\u00a0Vkladatel\u00e9 nad\u00e1le vytahuj\u00ed pen\u00edze ze syst\u00e9mu, dluhopisy t\u011bchto bank se nad\u00e1le znehodnocuj\u00ed a ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem splatnost\u00ed p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato bankovn\u00ed krize je\u0161t\u011b zdaleka neskon\u010dila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti to teprve za\u010dalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u010dera Bill Ackman varoval, \u017ee cel\u00fd n\u00e1\u0161 region\u00e1ln\u00ed bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je \u201ev ohro\u017een\u00ed\u201c…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je v ohro\u017een\u00ed.\u00a0\u0160patn\u00fd v\u00edkend vkladatel\u016f SVB probudil nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 vkladatele v\u0161ude.\u00a0Rychl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ovlivnil aktiva a od\u010derpal vklady.\u00a0Odchod akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f a dr\u017eitel\u016f dluhopis\u016f masivn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady bank.\u00a0Ztr\u00e1ty CRE hroz\u00ed.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm na @Apple l\u00e1kaj\u00ed v\u00fdnosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a u\u017eivatelsky p\u0159\u00edv\u011btiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed alternativy.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Neschopnost @FDICgov aktualizovat a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u016fj pojistn\u00fd syst\u00e9m zasadila dal\u0161\u00ed h\u0159eb\u00edky do rakve.\u00a0FRB by neselhal, pokud by FDIC do\u010dasn\u011b ru\u010dila za vklady p\u0159i vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9ho z\u00e1ru\u010dn\u00edho sch\u00e9matu.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho sledujeme, jak domino pad\u00e1 za velk\u00e9 syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/cite>Bankovnictv\u00ed je hra d\u016fv\u011bry.\u00a0P\u0159i tomto tempu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt \u0161patn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy nebo \u0161patn\u00e1 data, proto\u017ee cena akci\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u011b kles\u00e1, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 a nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 vklady jsou vyb\u00edr\u00e1ny a \u201esledov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch alternativ\u201c znamen\u00e1 odstaven\u00ed FDIC p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed v\u00edkend.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161inou m\u00e1 pravdu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale v jednom bych s n\u00edm r\u00e1d nesouhlasil.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e jsou v\u0161echny vklady v syst\u00e9mu pln\u011b zaru\u010deny, mnoho lid\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze st\u00e1le vybere.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak trefn\u011b podotkl Zero Hedge, mnoho bohat\u00fdch jedinc\u016f p\u0159esouv\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky z b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f, kter\u00e9 se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nic nevr\u00e1t\u00ed, do fond\u016f pen\u011b\u017en\u00edho trhu, kter\u00e9 vr\u00e1t\u00ed asi p\u011bt procent…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 nep\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze ze strachu, \u017ee p\u0159ijdou o vklady: ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00ed, \u017ee je zaru\u010deno neomezen\u00e9 poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v modr\u00fdch st\u00e1tech;\u00a0p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, proto\u017ee p\u0159echod z b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu s v\u00fdnosem 0,01 % na pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed trh s v\u00fdnosem 5,1 % trv\u00e1 30 sekund.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m by mohl bank\u00e1m pomoci sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se ale v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nestane.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipravte se tedy na dal\u0161\u00ed krachy bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne\u017e se prvn\u00ed republika zhroutila, provedl Gallup pr\u016fzkum, v n\u011bm\u017e se Ameri\u010dan\u016f zeptal, zda se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed o pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed v bankovn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto jsou v\u00fdsledky…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed turbulenc\u00ed v americk\u00e9m bankovn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovina Ameri\u010dan\u016f ob\u00e1v\u00e1 o bezpe\u010dnost pen\u011bz, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed na \u00fa\u010dtech u bank nebo jin\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed.\u00a0Celkem 48 % dosp\u011bl\u00fdch v USA uvedlo, \u017ee se zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed o sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, v\u010detn\u011b 19 % \u201evelmi\u201c a 29 % \u201est\u0159edn\u011b\u201c.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 30 % \u201enen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 znepokojeno\u201c a 20 % \u201ev\u016fbec nen\u00ed znepokojeno\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Tyto v\u00fdsledky poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z pr\u016fzkumu Gallupova \u00fastavu proveden\u00e9ho 3. a\u017e 25. dubna, m\u011bs\u00edc po krachu Silicon Valley Bank a Signature Bank.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va o krachu t\u0159et\u00ed banky – prvn\u00ed republiky – p\u0159i\u0161la a\u017e po ukon\u010den\u00ed pr\u016fzkumu.<\/span><\/cite>Net\u0159eba dod\u00e1vat, \u017ee ud\u00e1losti posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f lidem nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1ladu.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1\u0161 bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je v zoufal\u00e9 situaci, a to je jen jeden prvek \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho spole\u010densk\u00e9ho kolapsu, kter\u00e9ho jsme sv\u011bdky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Velmi m\u011b znepokojuje zbytek roku 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

A je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obavy m\u00e1m z toho, co p\u0159inese rok 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ud\u00e1losti se nyn\u00ed za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed rychle vyv\u00edjet a p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi jsou temn\u00e9 dny.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e je n\u00e1m \u0159e\u010deno, \u017ee je v\u0161e v po\u0159\u00e1dku, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,503,90],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27476"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27476\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}