{"id":2699,"date":"2021-06-22T05:48:38","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T03:48:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=2699"},"modified":"2021-06-22T05:48:38","modified_gmt":"2021-06-22T03:48:38","slug":"rekord-prekonan-v-usa-prohlasili-ze-inflace-ohrozila-svetovou-ekonomiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/06\/22\/rekord-prekonan-v-usa-prohlasili-ze-inflace-ohrozila-svetovou-ekonomiku\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekord p\u0159ekon\u00e1n. V USA prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee inflace ohrozila sv\u011btovou ekonomiku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Podobnou inflaci nem\u011bli v USA od dob glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krize roku 2008. Regul\u00e1tor ale odm\u00edt\u00e1 zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiky. Deutsche Bank ji\u017e varoval, \u017ee ne\u010dinnost nedopadne dob\u0159e. Tato \u010dasovan\u00e1 bomba ohro\u017euje celou sv\u011btovou ekonomiku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zrychlen\u00ed inflace<\/strong><\/p>\n

V kv\u011btnu inflace v USA vylet\u011bla na 5 % v ro\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159epo\u010dtu. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen, kter\u00fd nezahrnuje volatiln\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, jako jsou energetick\u00e9 nosi\u010de a potraviny, stoupl o 3,8 % oproti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu roku, je to maximum od \u010dervna 1992. Zdra\u017eilo v\u0161echno, auta, technika, n\u00e1bytek, letenky, oble\u010den\u00ed i potraviny.<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 ze Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky uji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0inflace\u00a0(v\u010detn\u011b Ruska) nem\u00e1 \u010deho ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee se ukazatel poda\u0159\u00ed vr\u00e1tit do mez\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00e9ho rozmez\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale v USA maj\u00ed jinou situaci. Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je ne\u010dinn\u00fd. Ji\u017e v b\u0159eznu prohl\u00e1sil jeho \u0161\u00e9f Jerome Powell, \u017ee nepova\u017euje za probl\u00e9m do\u010dasn\u00e9 dvouprocentn\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed c\u00edle.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010diny r\u016fstu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen jsou jasn\u00e9. Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ji\u017e vydala na protikrizov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku pandemie 6-9 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, spustila naplno tisk\u00e1rnu na pen\u00edze. Po n\u00e1stupu Joea Bidena z\u00edskala\u00a0ekonomika USA\u00a0nav\u00edc t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva biliony. Je to obrovsk\u00fd bal\u00edk stimul\u016f, hlavn\u011b soci\u00e1ln\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Obrovsk\u00fd dluh a slab\u00fd dolar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1plavy zv\u00fd\u0161ily st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o \u010dtvrtinu. Dnes \u010din\u00ed p\u0159es 28 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f (t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 130 % ro\u010dn\u00edho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu).<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 varovali, \u017ee nov\u00e9 inf\u00faze do ekonomiky ji\u017e nebudou u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9. Zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se tlak na rozpo\u010det a na ceny kv\u016fli p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00fdm bankovk\u00e1m bez p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdroby.<\/p>\n

Infla\u010dn\u00ed riziko posiluje rovn\u011b\u017e odro\u010denou spot\u0159ebitelskou popt\u00e1vku p\u0159i vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fdch \u00faspor. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 toti\u017e uspo\u0159ili b\u011bhem pandemie 1,6 bilionu dolar\u016f, kter\u00e9 dnes za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed utr\u00e1cet.<\/p>\n

Mocn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv \u010derstv\u00fdch bankovek zas\u00e1hl\u00a0americkou m\u011bnu. Dolar zlevnil, ztr\u00e1c\u00ed atraktivnost pro investory. B\u011bhem roku 2020 klesl oproti euru z 0,8934 na 0,8149, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 9 %. V roce 2021 m\u016f\u017ee klesnout o dal\u0161\u00edch p\u011bt nebo sedm procent.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed faktor spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v bezp\u0159\u00edkladn\u00e9m tlaku na rozpo\u010det. Ve finan\u010dn\u00edm roce 2020 dos\u00e1hl jeho schodek 16,1% (3,1 bilionu dolar\u016f), co\u017e je maximum od roku 1945, kdy vl\u00e1da vy\u010dle\u0148ovala kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed prost\u0159edky na velk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace.<\/p>\n

Nafoukli bublinu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ale Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezerva nicm\u00e9n\u011b nehodl\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, anebo omezit program n\u00e1kupu aktiv, dokud nezaznamen\u00e1 \u201epodstatn\u00fd pokrok\u201c v dosa\u017een\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, zejm\u00e9na obnoven\u00ed pracovn\u00edho trhu. Sebejistota a ne\u010dinnost regul\u00e1tora vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky.<\/p>\n

\u201ePot\u0159ebujeme p\u0159esn\u00fd pl\u00e1n boje. Osoby, je\u017e rozhoduj\u00ed o da\u0148ov\u00e9 a rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 politice, si mus\u00ed uv\u011bdomit, koho mohou jejich rozhodnut\u00ed po\u0161kodit. 87 % Ameri\u010dan\u016f je ji\u017e znepokojeno r\u016fstem cen. Pan Powell mus\u00ed uznat prudk\u00fd skok inflace a p\u0159estat ignorovat tento v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m jako do\u010dasnou poruchu,\u201c prohl\u00e1sil sen\u00e1tor Rick Scott.<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 upozornili tak\u00e9 na to, \u017ee Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezerva naprosto pop\u00edr\u00e1 tak\u00e9 nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trend, vznik glob\u00e1ln\u00ed bubliny na fondov\u00e9m trhu. Svoji podporou super n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a st\u00e1l\u00fdm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm bilance o 120 miliard dolar\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, kdy\u017e cena akci\u00ed dos\u00e1hla t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 historick\u00e9ho maxima, riskuje je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc p\u0159et\u00ed\u017eit trh.<\/p>\n

\u201eRegul\u00e1tor pouze zvy\u0161uje \u0161ance na tvrd\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed a bude nakonec nucen zp\u0159\u00edsnit pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed a \u00fav\u011brovou politiku, aby dos\u00e1hl pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho \u00farovn\u011b inflace,\u201c poznamenal Desmond Lahman, analytik z Americk\u00e9ho institutu podnikatelstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Posti\u017een\u00ed budou slab\u0161\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vytvo\u0159\u00ed to ostatn\u011b probl\u00e9my nejen pro Ameri\u010dany, ale pro cel\u00fd sv\u011bt, varuj\u00ed analytici z Deutsche Bank. \u201eIgnorov\u00e1n\u00ed inflace v USA dr\u017e\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku na \u010dasovan\u00e9 pum\u011b. N\u00e1sledky mohou b\u00fdt ni\u010div\u00e9, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 pro nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spole\u010densk\u00e9 vrstvy,\u201c vysv\u011btlil hlavn\u00ed ekonom banky David Folkerts-Landau.<\/p>\n

V N\u011bmecku se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee se inflace zachov\u00e1 a \u017ee v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch letech vy\u00fast\u00ed do krize, mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e v roce 2023. Experti up\u0159esnili, \u017ee t\u00edm utrp\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b. Znehodnocen\u00ed pen\u011bz v p\u0159edn\u00edch ekonomik\u00e1ch posiluje o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f ohledn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb. Zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed to p\u0159\u00edjmy ze st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, v d\u016fsledku \u010deho\u017e budou p\u016fj\u010dky je\u0161t\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 konstatuj\u00ed, \u017ee se za\u010d\u00e1tek glob\u00e1ln\u00edho o\u017eiven\u00ed zm\u011bnil pro rozvojov\u00e9 trhy z pozitivn\u00edho faktoru v hrozbu, nap\u0159\u00edklad v Jihoafrick\u00e9 republice a Braz\u00edlii se cena p\u016fj\u010dek bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovni. Ale jejich st\u00e1tn\u00ed finance jsou i beztak dost nestabiln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eTyto zem\u011b se maj\u00ed v\u00edc ob\u00e1vat inflace v USA ne\u017e vlastn\u00ed,\u201c poukazuj\u00ed odborn\u00edci z S&P Global Ratings.<\/p>\n

Bohat\u00e9 st\u00e1ty si b\u011bhem pandemie p\u016fj\u010dovaly s velmi n\u00edzk\u00fdmi sazbami, na rozd\u00edl od \u010detn\u00fdch rozvojov\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Egypt m\u00e1 nap\u0159\u00edklad refinancovat dluh ve v\u00fd\u0161i 38 % HDP, cena obsluhy \u00fav\u011bru \u010din\u00ed 12,1 %. Pro Ghanu je toto procento je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, 15. Stejn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my m\u00e1 Braz\u00edlie, jej\u00ed\u017e Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka ji\u017e dvakr\u00e1t od ledna zv\u00fd\u0161ila sazby, aby oslabila cenov\u00fd tlak.<\/p>\n

Podle Williama Jacksona z Capital Economics je Braz\u00edlie v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem toho, jak inflace a r\u016fst rentability ohro\u017euj\u00ed ekonomickou stabilitu. \u201eZp\u016fsobilo to sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch financ\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bankou, kter\u00e1 posiluje v\u00fddaje na obsluhu dluhu,\u201c zd\u016fraznil analytik.<\/p>\n

Situaci zachra\u0148uje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad Braz\u00edlie, Jihoafrick\u00e1 republika a Indie v\u00edc spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na dom\u00e1c\u00ed investory ne\u017e na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed. Sni\u017euje to zranitelnost p\u0159i odlivu kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

Rusko je z tohoto hlediska v\u00edc ne\u017e stabiln\u00ed, pon\u011bvad\u017e pod\u00edl nerezident\u016f ve feder\u00e1ln\u00edch dluhopisech je velmi mal\u00fd. Podle dat Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u010dinil v kv\u011btnu 10 % (v dubnu 19,7 %). V\u00edce ne\u017e 80 % dr\u017eitel\u016f feder\u00e1ln\u00edch dluhopis\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed investo\u0159i, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm banky a penzijn\u00ed fondy. Nerezidenti jsou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed \u201edcery\u201c velk\u00fdch dom\u00e1c\u00edch bank. Pojist\u00ed to jak proti sank\u010dn\u00edm, tak infla\u010dn\u00edm rizik\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Natalja Dembinskaja<\/strong><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Podobnou inflaci nem\u011bli v USA od dob glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krize roku 2008. Regul\u00e1tor ale odm\u00edt\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[604,59,683,29,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2699\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}