{"id":26907,"date":"2023-04-26T06:04:50","date_gmt":"2023-04-26T04:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26907"},"modified":"2023-04-26T07:14:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-26T05:14:11","slug":"michael-svatos-putin-ante-portas-i-cast-analyza-nadchazejici-ofenzivy-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/26\/michael-svatos-putin-ante-portas-i-cast-analyza-nadchazejici-ofenzivy-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Putin ante portas! I. \u010d\u00e1st. Anal\u00fdza nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy na Ukrajin\u011b!"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Na Va\u0161e \u010detn\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti jsme p\u0159ipravili prvn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti budou n\u00e1sledovat. V ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na ur\u010ditou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st budouc\u00edho pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00e1lky. Dnes vysv\u011btl\u00edme, n\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 kroky Ukrajinsk\u00e9ho velen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, co m\u00e1 Kyjev vlastn\u011b za lubem!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Leto\u0161n\u00ed letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva Kyjeva proti Rusku se stala slavnou je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e v\u016fbec za\u010dala. V\u0161ichni o n\u00ed hovo\u0159\u00ed, a Washington dokonce nazna\u010dil, \u017ee kdy\u017e ofenz\u00edva neusp\u011bje, podpora Ukrajiny se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed! Proveden\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy se tak zd\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou pro p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b organizace, v\u00fdzbroje a slo\u017een\u00ed\u00a0 33. mechanizovan\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy Ukrajiny, kter\u00e1 jsme odhalili, a kter\u00e1 se nyn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00fdch etap v\u00fdcviku p\u0159ed nasazen\u00edm do pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee se Ukrajina chyst\u00e1 pou\u017e\u00edt p\u0159ekvapivou a riskantn\u00ed taktiku na prolomen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany!<\/p>\n

Nezvykl\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed 33. mechanizovan\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy Ukrajiny dovoluje pouze 2 druhy \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9ho boje:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Rychl\u00fd sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd n\u00e1jezd na rusk\u00e9 pozice a sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd boj p\u011bchoty z bl\u00edzka.<\/li>\n
  2. Rychl\u00fd \u00fader do hloubky rusk\u00e9 obrany, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ta bude prora\u017eena jinou ukrajinskou jednotkou.<\/li>\n
  3. Oba dva typy pou\u017eit\u00ed 33. mbr k \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdm operac\u00edm nevyhnuteln\u011b vy\u017eaduj\u00ed sucho a vyschl\u00e1 pole a cesty! K \u00fatoku by tak m\u011blo doj\u00edt a\u017e ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b kv\u011btna, podle sou\u010dasn\u00fdch hydrologick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek v\u011bt\u0161iny boji\u0161t\u011b!<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Kl\u00ed\u010dem k pochopen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f\u00a0je odhalen\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed 33. mechanizovan\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy<\/a>, kter\u00e1 se k ofenz\u00edv\u011b p\u0159ipravuje:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. 32 tank\u016f Leopard 2 (mo\u017en\u00e1 i n\u011bjak\u00e9 Leopard I)<\/li>\n
    2. 90 kolov\u00fdch transport\u00e9r\u016f levn\u00fdch americk\u00fdch transport\u00e9r\u016f\u00a0Maxxpro<\/a><\/li>\n
    3. 12 americk\u00fdch houfnic M-109 r\u00e1\u017ee 105mm ta\u017een\u00fdch star\u00fdmi US transport\u00e9ry M-113 ze \u0161edes\u00e1t\u00fdch let.<\/li>\n
    4. Obdobn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem maj\u00ed b\u00fdt organizov\u00e1ny i dal\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fadern\u00e9 mechanizovan\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy \u2013\u00a021,22,23, 31, a 32<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Takto slo\u017een\u00e1 \u00fadern\u00e1 brig\u00e1da zcela postr\u00e1d\u00e1 schopnost prolomit hlavn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 pozice, proto\u017ee jej\u00ed d\u011blost\u0159electvo M-109\/105 mm nem\u00e1 kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 n\u00edzk\u00e9 r\u00e1\u017ei schopnost ni\u010dit rusk\u00e1 opevn\u011bn\u00ed, by\u0165 poln\u00edho typu, a trp\u00ed absolutn\u00edm nedostatkem dost\u0159elu,\u00a0pouze 12 a\u017e 16 km<\/a>, co\u017e je o polovinu m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e nejhor\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e1 houfnice D-30, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 r\u00e1\u017ei 122mm, a\u00a0dost\u0159el 15-22 km<\/a>.<\/p>\n

      Takto slo\u017een\u00e1 brig\u00e1da m\u00e1 k dispozici okolo 720 p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k\u016f p\u0159epravovan\u00fdch 90 levn\u00fdmi vozidly Maxxpro, kter\u00e1 nejsou schopna podporovat \u00fatok p\u011bchoty z t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch zbran\u00ed jako BVP, a ani nevydr\u017e\u00ed palbu rusk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Jejich jedinou, p\u0159ekvapivou v\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee se po nerozbahn\u011bn\u00e9 zemi dovedou pohybovat velmi rychle, a \u017ee jejich pos\u00e1dka, za cenu po\u0161kozen\u00ed vozidla, d\u00edky jeho speci\u00e1ln\u00ed konstrukci, nen\u00ed zni\u010dena v\u00fdbuchem miny do 7kg TNT. Tyto vozidla jsou tak ale schopna rychle p\u0159epravit p\u011bchotu na boji\u0161t\u011b, a nebo do jeho hloubky, za cenu sv\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed! Ukrajinsk\u00e1 p\u011bchota, tak m\u00e1 b\u00fdt hlavn\u00edm \u00fadern\u00fdm prost\u0159edkem k prolamov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany. Rusk\u00e9 d\u00e1lkov\u00e9 minov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, ani p\u0159ipraven\u00e1 minov\u00e1 pole, tak \u00fatok ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u011bchoty, a nebo jej\u00ed pr\u016fnik do hloubi rusk\u00e9 obrany nezastav\u00ed.<\/p>\n

      32 tank\u016f Leopard je hlavn\u00ed a jedinou \u00fadernou silou brig\u00e1dy. Ukrajinci s nimi bu\u010f budou \u0161et\u0159it, jako to d\u011blaj\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 s T-14, a budou podporovat \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinskou p\u011bchotu palbou z pozic v hloubi \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 sestavy. Zda ukrajinsk\u00e1 p\u011bchota projev\u00ed dostate\u010dnou odvahu, aby se pustila do takto sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9ho boje, je velk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

      Z uveden\u00e9ho slo\u017een\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch brig\u00e1d vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajinci nemaj\u00ed prost\u0159edky k prolomen\u00ed hlavn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany, a budou muset naj\u00edt jej\u00ed slab\u00e1 m\u00edsta. Tato slab\u00e1 m\u00edsta obrany mus\u00ed dr\u017eet po\u010detn\u011b slab\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 p\u011bchota, proto\u017ee rozhodovat v\u00fdsledek \u00fatoku bude p\u011b\u0161\u00ed boj. V ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, by m\u00edsta slab\u00e9 obrany m\u011bli dr\u017eet ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u011b\u0161\u00e1ci II. kategorie, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli v d\u016fsledku p\u0159esn\u00e9 st\u0159elby Leopard\u016f na jejich pozice ztratit nervy, d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e na m\u00edsto \u00fatoku doraz\u00ed rusk\u00e9 tankov\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy.\u00a0\u00a0V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b prolomen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany by ukrajinsk\u00e1 p\u011bchota na vozidlech Maxxpro mohla rychle proniknout rusk\u00e9ho t\u00fdlu, a vyvolat zmatky jako p\u0159i letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edv\u011b v nejv\u00fdchodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti frontu.<\/p>\n

      Vzhledem k pos\u00edlen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany d\u00edky mobilizaci se tak jev\u00ed, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 pozemn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva skon\u010d\u00ed rychl\u00fdm fiaskem, proto\u017ee Z\u00e1pad nedok\u00e1zal Ukrajinu vybavit nezbytn\u00fdmi tis\u00edci tank\u016f, BVP a t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch a raketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n

      Ukrajina m\u00e1 nicm\u00e9n\u011b k dispozici dostate\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed lehk\u00fdch motorizovan\u00fdch sil, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu v boji na \u0161irok\u00e9 front\u011b p\u0159i neexistenci pevn\u00e9 obrany, do t\u00e9 doby ne\u017e se st\u0159etnou s mechanizovan\u00fdmi rusk\u00fdmi z\u00e1lohami. D\u00e1 se tak p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fdm \u00fatokem obsadit zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed a v\u010das se p\u0159ipravit k jeho obran\u011b. Logicky tak vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, zda se Kyjev nepokus\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vpadnout na vlastn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, a zakopat se na n\u011bm. Proto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 obrana mimo sou\u010dasnou bojovou z\u00f3nu je velmi \u0159\u00eddk\u00e1! To je ov\u0161em spekulativn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka s nedoz\u00edrn\u00fdmi mo\u017enostmi eskalace konfliktu.<\/p>\n

      Sami ru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed vozidla Maxxpro jako u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b pro jejich schopnost odol\u00e1vat min\u00e1m a rychle a bezpe\u010dn\u011b tak p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eet p\u011bchotu a jej\u00ed vybaven\u00ed a z\u00e1soby mimo oblast nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch boj\u016f a t\u011bchto vozidel se po Gosudarovi zat\u00edm marn\u011b do\u017eaduj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

      Ve druh\u00e9m d\u00edle se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na p\u0159ed rokem absolutn\u011b neo\u010dek\u00e1vanou ruskou p\u0159evahou v pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fadern\u00fdch dron\u016f, a na p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed masivn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f na \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed Ukrajince.<\/p>\n

      Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Na Va\u0161e \u010detn\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti jsme p\u0159ipravili prvn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17643,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2752,102,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26907"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26907\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}