{"id":26878,"date":"2023-04-26T00:57:22","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T22:57:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26878"},"modified":"2023-04-25T15:43:52","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T13:43:52","slug":"legenda-o-slabe-ruske-ekonomice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/26\/legenda-o-slabe-ruske-ekonomice\/","title":{"rendered":"Legenda o slab\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ekonomice"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika je mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jak by si z\u00e1padn\u00ed propaganda myslela.\u00a0Odm\u00edt\u00e1 se, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika je na \u00farovni It\u00e1lie, a\u010dkoli Rusko brzy p\u0159edb\u011bhne n\u011bmeckou ekonomiku.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia r\u00e1da tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika je bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e1 a \u017ee Rusko m\u00e1 asi ekonomickou s\u00edlu It\u00e1lie.\u00a0Nicm\u00e9n\u011b u\u017e v roce 2019 jsem se v\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ptal , zda Rusko brzy p\u0159edb\u011bhne N\u011bmecko jako p\u00e1tou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiku.\u00a0Jak to do sebe zapad\u00e1?<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to pochopili, mus\u00edme se pod\u00edvat na to, jak se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 s\u00edla st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed HDP<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pot\u00ed\u017e s v\u00fdpo\u010dtem hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu (HDP) je v tom, \u017ee jej lze m\u011b\u0159it pomoc\u00ed velmi odli\u0161n\u00fdch metod, ironicky \u0159e\u010deno: \u201eV\u011b\u0159te pouze statistice, kterou jste sami zfal\u0161ovali\u201c.\u00a0Ot\u00e1zkou v\u017edy je, co vlastn\u011b chcete m\u011b\u0159it nebo kontrolovat.\u00a0Mus\u00edme se tedy pod\u00edvat na n\u011bjakou suchou teorii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, existuje nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed a re\u00e1ln\u00fd HDP.\u00a0Nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP je o hodnot\u011b ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb v tr\u017en\u00edch cen\u00e1ch.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed (tr\u017en\u00ed) ceny, tedy inflace, zvy\u0161uj\u00ed HDP.\u00a0I kdy\u017e produkce kles\u00e1, nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP m\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst, pokud je inflace dostate\u010dn\u011b vysok\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby se tento efekt vylou\u010dil, existuje re\u00e1ln\u00fd HDP.\u00a0Inflace se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 nastaven\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00edch cen, tak\u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1te jasn\u00fd p\u0159ehled o v\u00fdvoji v\u00fdroby a slu\u017eeb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale i zde je probl\u00e9m z\u0159ejm\u00fd, kdy\u017e chceme porovn\u00e1vat r\u016fzn\u00e9 zem\u011b s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi m\u011bnami.\u00a0Zem\u011b toti\u017e stanovuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ceny a v r\u016fzn\u00fdch m\u011bn\u00e1ch, jejich\u017e sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00fdpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro kompenzaci tohoto efektu existuje m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed HDP podle parity kupn\u00ed s\u00edly (PPP).\u00a0Jde o to, \u017ee stejn\u00fd produkt m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed nebo levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a tot\u00e9\u017e lze \u0159\u00edci o mzd\u00e1ch.\u00a0Mzdy jsou ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku, ale kdo tam byl, uvid\u00ed, \u017ee je tam v\u0161echno mnohem dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0\u0160v\u00fdca\u0159i t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze sv\u00fdch vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch mezd pouze na n\u00e1kupech nebo na dovolen\u00e9 v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, v b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m \u017eivot\u011b doma vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry kompenzuj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mzdy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee HDP lze m\u011b\u0159it velmi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby a v\u00fdsledky mohou b\u00fdt velmi odli\u0161n\u00e9.\u00a0Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 nebo \u0161patn\u00e1 metoda.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad ka\u017ed\u00e9mu, kdo chce m\u011b\u0159it v\u00fdvoj v zemi v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let, dob\u0159e slou\u017e\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 HDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud v\u0161ak chcete porovn\u00e1vat r\u016fzn\u00e9 zem\u011b, je metodou volby HDP po PPP.\u00a0Proto\u017ee jen proto, \u017ee \u0161\u00e1lek k\u00e1vy ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku stoj\u00ed dvakr\u00e1t tolik ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku, je to st\u00e1le stejn\u00fd \u0161\u00e1lek k\u00e1vy.\u00a0Pokud tedy chcete porovn\u00e1vat HDP, tedy sou\u010det vyroben\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb (zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno po\u010det prodan\u00fdch \u0161\u00e1lk\u016f k\u00e1vy), v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch a ne cenov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly, mus\u00edte pou\u017e\u00edt HDP v PPP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kde je rusk\u00e1 ekonomika?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jak jsme vid\u011bli, nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed HDP je zcela nevhodn\u00fdm ukazatelem pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly zem\u00ed.\u00a0Navzdory tomu z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia r\u00e1da pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed pro sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy \u00fadaje o nomin\u00e1ln\u00edm HDP, proto\u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b vypadaj\u00ed nejl\u00e9pe s touto metodou m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle odhad\u016f MMF je Rusko na jeden\u00e1ct\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b s nomin\u00e1ln\u00edm HDP 2 062 649 USD v roce 2023, zat\u00edmco It\u00e1lie je na osm\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b s 2 169 745 USD.\u00a0V souladu s t\u00edm je tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko nem\u00e1 ani ekonomickou s\u00edlu It\u00e1lie, spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, ale a\u017e po v\u00fdpo\u010dtu na z\u00e1klad\u011b nomin\u00e1ln\u00edho HDP, kter\u00fd je k tomu nevhodn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed)<\/span><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jin\u00e9 je to, vezmeme-li jako z\u00e1klad HDP po PPP, co\u017e je vlastn\u011b vhodn\u00e9 pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly zem\u00ed.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia tato \u010d\u00edsla zadr\u017euj\u00ed, proto\u017ee neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed po\u017eadovan\u00e9mu obrazu, proto\u017ee podle odhad\u016f MMF je Rusko po PPP 2023 \u0161est\u00e9 na sv\u011bt\u011b s 4 988 829 dolary a N\u011bmecko je podle HDP po PPP s 5 545 dolary \u0161est\u00e9. p\u00e1t\u00e9 m\u00edsto, tak horko v pat\u00e1ch.\u00a0Podle \u00fadaj\u016f Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky Rusko t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dohnalo N\u011bmecko.<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)<\/span><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00da\u010dinek sankc\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

V sou\u010dasnosti za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me senzaci z pohledu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky.\u00a0Poprv\u00e9 za v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 let je m\u00edra inflace v Rusku ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku.\u00a0A co v\u00edc,\u00a0<\/span>n\u011bmeck\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace je 7,4 procenta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, tedy v\u00edce ne\u017e dvakr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rusk\u00e1,\u00a0<\/span>kter\u00e1 je v sou\u010dasnosti 3,5 procenta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po \u0161oku z p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed se rubl v b\u0159eznu 2022 kr\u00e1tce zhroutil a rusk\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace explodovala t\u011bsn\u011b pod 17 procent, ale kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee sankce m\u011bly mal\u00fd dopad, rubl rychle znovu vzrostl a v roce 2022 byl\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159eru\u0161ovan\u00fd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bna na sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho\u00a0<\/span>m\u00edra inflace v Rusku op\u011bt klesla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a nyn\u00ed, po cenov\u00e9m \u0161oku z roku 2022, kter\u00fd byl p\u0159ed rokem a tedy ji\u017e nen\u00ed ve statistik\u00e1ch, je rusk\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byla za posledn\u00edch 35 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdhled<\/span><\/h3>\n

Vezm\u011bme si znovu progn\u00f3zy MMF.\u00a0<\/span>Podle MMF<\/span><\/a>\u00a0m\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 ekonomika v roce 2023 r\u016fst o 0,7 procenta a v roce 2024 o 1,3 procenta.\u00a0Jak to zapad\u00e1 do prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch politik\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v b\u0159eznu 2022 sl\u00edbili, \u017ee se rusk\u00e1 ekonomika pod z\u00e1padn\u00edmi sankcemi zhrout\u00ed?\u00a0Nebo v\u00fdroky z\u00e1padn\u00edch \u201eexpert\u016f\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed nyn\u00ed prohla\u0161uj\u00ed, \u017ee sankce by Rusko dlouhodob\u011b oslabily?\u00a0V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u010d\u00edsla z MMF mluv\u00ed jin\u00fdm jazykem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco MMF musel zvy\u0161ovat sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy pro Rusko s ka\u017ed\u00fdm nov\u00fdm odhadem za posledn\u00ed rok, proto\u017ee rusk\u00e9 ekonomice se da\u0159\u00ed l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, v z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch je situace p\u0159esn\u011b opa\u010dn\u00e1.\u00a0MMF mus\u00ed sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy pro N\u011bmecko poka\u017ed\u00e9 sni\u017eovat.\u00a0<\/span>MMF aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vid\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro N\u011bmecko v roce 2023 pokles hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu o 0,1 procenta.\u00a0MMF pak p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 pro rok 2024 r\u016fst op\u011bt o 1,1 procenta, alespo\u0148 zat\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli se rusk\u00e9 sankce Ruska t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nedot\u00fdkaj\u00ed, ale maj\u00ed masivn\u00ed dopad na z\u00e1padn\u00ed st\u00e1ty, evrop\u0161t\u00ed politici nemaj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1pad, ne\u017e volat po dal\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00edch.\u00a0M\u00e1m jednoduchou ot\u00e1zku: cht\u011bj\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed politici z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b zni\u010dit evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, nebo jsou opravdu tak neznal\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek, \u017ee nev\u011bd\u00ed, co d\u011blaj\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e je odpov\u011b\u010f pravdiv\u00e1, \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 jejich vl\u00e1dy pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f p\u00e1chaj\u00ed evropsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm a prosperit\u011b lid\u00ed v Evrop\u011b, budou trval\u00e9, proto\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 ceny energie v Evrop\u011b po skon\u010den\u00ed levn\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho plynu se staly migra\u010dn\u00edm vod\u00edtkem mnoha pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed.\u00a0A nemus\u00edte m\u00edt vystudovanou ekonomii, abyste pochopili, \u017ee to znamen\u00e1 nezam\u011bstnanost a zb\u00edda\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017eeme si tedy vsadit, kdy Rusko ekonomicky p\u0159edb\u011bhne N\u011bmecko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

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__________________<\/p>\n

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Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika je mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jak by si z\u00e1padn\u00ed propaganda myslela.\u00a0Odm\u00edt\u00e1 se, \u017ee rusk\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,22,125,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26878"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26878"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26879,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26878\/revisions\/26879"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}