{"id":26766,"date":"2023-04-24T01:09:13","date_gmt":"2023-04-23T23:09:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26766"},"modified":"2023-04-23T15:57:34","modified_gmt":"2023-04-23T13:57:34","slug":"americka-recese-se-blizi-varuje-strateg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/24\/americka-recese-se-blizi-varuje-strateg\/","title":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e1 recese se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, varuje strat\u00e9g"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Indik\u00e1tory podle experta ukazuj\u00ed na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomick\u00fd pokles<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>USA jsou na pokraji recese, soud\u011b podle jejich \u201ebrut\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161patn\u00fdch\u201c ekonomick\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f, \u0159ekl tento t\u00fdden Chris Watling, v\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0159editel finan\u010dn\u011b poradensk\u00e9 firmy Longview Economics, v rozhovoru pro CNBC.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle strat\u00e9ga je jedn\u00edm z faktor\u016f ukazuj\u00edc\u00edch na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se recesi posledn\u00ed \u010dten\u00ed hlavn\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho indexu pro USA, kter\u00fd v b\u0159eznu klesl o 1,2 %, co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od listopadu 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nav\u00edc, standardn\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e1 osa recese je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b jeden rok po inverzi v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky Treasury, kdy v\u00fdnosy krat\u0161\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f vzrostou nad v\u00fdnosy dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se k\u0159ivka poprv\u00e9 obr\u00e1tila v b\u0159eznu 2022, hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt hned za rohem, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Watling.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e jste to m\u011bli v USA, m\u011bli jste recesi.&#8220;\u00a0Tak\u017ee si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee se to bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, je to na cest\u011b.\u00a0Je to jen ot\u00e1zka na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pr\u00e1v\u011b minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc inverze zes\u00edlila a dos\u00e1hla z\u00e1porn\u00fdch 103,1 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavovalo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rozd\u00edl mezi krat\u0161\u00edmi a dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1981, kdy byla americk\u00e1 ekonomika v prvn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch recese.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Watling tak\u00e9 varoval p\u0159ed d\u016fsledky pro akciov\u00e9 trhy, jakmile zas\u00e1hne recese.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;\u00a0<\/span><em><span>Podle na\u0161eho n\u00e1zoru to nep\u0159ejdou bez \u00fajmy.&#8220;\u00a0Nejsem si jist\u00fd ani relativn\u011b.\u00a0Realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee, \u0161ly na rekordn\u00ed maxima v roce 2021 a trochu v roce 2022, a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, kdy\u017e m\u00e1te kolem hodn\u011b inflace, m\u016f\u017eete z\u00edskat velmi dobrou provozn\u00ed p\u00e1ku, tak\u017ee m\u016f\u017eete z\u00edskat rekordn\u011b vysok\u00e9 ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee. .\u00a0Kdy\u017e se dostanete do recese, mus\u00edme zdvojn\u00e1sobit ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee.\u00a0Mus\u00edte je normalizovat zp\u011bt na norm\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 a pak mus\u00edte v recesi zdra\u017eit,\u201c<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0\u00a0vysv\u011btlil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle Watlinga jsou o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b v\u00fdd\u011blk\u016f v sou\u010dasnosti \u201e\u00a0<\/span><em><span>p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e1<\/span><\/em><span>\u00a0\u201c vzhledem k tomu, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem se ekonomika ub\u00edr\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1283\" height=\"154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1283px) 100vw, 1283px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Indik\u00e1tory podle experta ukazuj\u00ed na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomick\u00fd pokles USA jsou na pokraji recese, soud\u011b&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1324,59,683,371,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26766"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26768,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26766\/revisions\/26768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}