{"id":2673,"date":"2021-06-21T05:20:14","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T03:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=2673"},"modified":"2021-06-21T05:20:14","modified_gmt":"2021-06-21T03:20:14","slug":"rekord-cen-ropy-co-bude-dal-s-cernym-zlatem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/06\/21\/rekord-cen-ropy-co-bude-dal-s-cernym-zlatem\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekord cen ropy: co bude d\u00e1l s \u010dern\u00fdm zlatem"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ropa Brent, kter\u00e1 stoupla nad 74 dolar\u016f za barel poprv\u00e9 od dubna 2019, trochu klesla. Ceny rostly v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed osobn\u00ed sch\u016fzky Vladimira Putina a Joea Bidena, zdra\u017een\u00ed pokra\u010dovalo tak\u00e9 po \u017eenevsk\u00e9m summitu, dnes do\u0161lo k nepatrn\u00e9mu poklesu. Ale p\u0159ece jen jsou ceny vysok\u00e9. Projevuje se politika a rovn\u011b\u017e fakt, \u017ee zem\u011b OPEC+ uk\u00e1zn\u011bn\u011b omezuj\u00ed t\u011b\u017ebu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro budoucnost<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e9 zlato za\u010dalo zdra\u017eovat, kdy\u017e se sv\u011bt dozv\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee Joe Biden navrhl Vladimiru Putinovi sch\u016fzku. Obvykle se takov\u00e9 summity projevuj\u00ed na trhu kladn\u011b. Byznys je vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako p\u0159\u00edznak zlep\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f, po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s obnoven\u00edm ekonomick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce mezi st\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Ropa ale zdra\u017eila p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli dohod\u011b OPEC+, kter\u00e1 se p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b dodr\u017euje. V\u00fdrobu zvy\u0161uj\u00ed velmi pomalu. V kv\u011btnu o 320 tis\u00edc barel\u016f denn\u011b, na 40,4 milionu. \u010clenov\u00e9 kartelu splnili dohodu na 124 procent. Ostatn\u00ed na 94.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku popt\u00e1vka\u00a0p\u0159evy\u0161uje nab\u00eddku<\/em>. Rozd\u00edl nahrazuj\u00ed z\u00e1sobami nahromad\u011bn\u00fdmi v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2020.<\/p>\n

Trh z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ve stavu um\u011bl\u00e9ho nedostatku, poznamenal Anton Grinstein, expert informa\u010dn\u00edho a analytick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Hamilton.<\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden \u010dinil obrat asi jeden milion barel\u016f denn\u011b. Nyn\u00ed byl zv\u00fd\u0161en na 1,6 – 1,8 milionu. \u201eD\u00edky zrychlen\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky p\u0159ekro\u010dily ceny psychologickou hranici 73 dolar\u016f za Brent,\u201c \u0159ekl v rozhovoru pro novin\u00e1\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee cena p\u0159ekro\u010dila \u00farove\u0148 z doby p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed. Spot\u0159eba paliva, i kdy\u017e zat\u00edm nedos\u00e1hla d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ukazatel\u016f, se rychle obnovuje. Vrchol\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 sez\u00f3na, \u010das n\u00e1kupu aut, \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou lety. Podle progn\u00f3zy Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury (IEA) m\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vka dos\u00e1hnout v roce 2021\u00a096,4 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b<\/strong>, co\u017e je o 5,4 milionu v\u00edc ne\u017e v roce 2020. K ukazatel\u016fm jako p\u0159ed covidem se trh vr\u00e1t\u00ed v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se n\u00e1r\u016fst ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,1 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, na 99,5 milionu.<\/p>\n

V \u00fater\u00fd zaznamenal nav\u00edc Americk\u00fd institut ropy v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1sob ropy v USA, o 8,5 milionu barel\u016f za t\u00fdden. Tohle rovn\u011b\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o obnoven\u00ed spot\u0159eby, \u0159ekl Artjom D\u011bjev, vedouc\u00ed analytick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed Amarkets.<\/p>\n

Podle dat Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury pro energii (IEA) klesly z\u00e1soby vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00ed poprv\u00e9 od za\u010d\u00e1tku lo\u0148sk\u00e9 jarn\u00ed krize pod pr\u016fm\u011brnou \u00farove\u0148 za p\u011bt let. V \u010dervenci 2020 do\u0161lo k historick\u00e9mu maximu, 3,22 miliardy barel\u016f. Od t\u00e9 doby doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i jeden milion denn\u011b. Popt\u00e1vka roste, ale nab\u00eddka je i nad\u00e1le omezena\u00a0dohodou OPEC+<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Proto budou \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci dohody z\u0159ejm\u011b muset zv\u00fd\u0161it t\u011b\u017ebu. \u201eM\u00e1 to smysl. Jinak situace vyu\u017eij\u00ed jin\u00ed v\u00fdrobci, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v USA. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je korekce kv\u016fli \u201ep\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed\u201c trhu. Zkr\u00e1tka je v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rozmez\u00ed 70-77 dolar\u016f za barel zna\u010dky Brent,\u201c u\u010dinil z\u00e1v\u011br Mark Hochmann, hlavn\u00ed ekonom informa\u010dn\u00edho a analytick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu TeleTrade.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed OPEC+, je\u017e m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit trh, se pl\u00e1nuje 1. \u010dervence.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n h\u00e1z\u00ed OPEC klacky pod nohy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch surovinov\u00fdch trader\u016f z\u016fstanou do konce roku 2021 ceny ropy v rozmez\u00ed 70-80 dolar\u016f. Je to odhad FT Commodities Global Summit. Nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno ani zdra\u017een\u00ed na stovku.<\/p>\n

Od dubna dodnes stoupl trh o v\u00edc ne\u017e 20 %. Hr\u00e1\u010di o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 rychl\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po palivu ve druh\u00e9m pololet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 dohod\u011b, co\u017e je dal\u0161\u00ed podstatn\u00fd faktor, zjevn\u011b neskon\u010d\u00ed hned po prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v zemi, je\u017e se konaly 18. \u010dervna. Existuje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da bude m\u00edt jin\u00fd postoj. Co\u017e zase je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc odro\u010d\u00ed dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed dod\u00e1vky z 2,4 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b na 2,5 v t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a na 3 ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m. Av\u0161ak kv\u016fli pr\u016ftah\u016fm na jedn\u00e1n\u00edch to v\u0161echno nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e Teher\u00e1n neobnov\u00ed rychle export, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed OPEC+ t\u011b\u017ebu, aby uspokojila popt\u00e1vku.<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm pandemie i nad\u00e1le zdr\u017euje ceny. Investo\u0159i jsou znepokojeni epidemiologickou situac\u00ed v Evrop\u011b, ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed se opakov\u00e1n\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, kdy lockdown vyvolal p\u00e1d cen.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1le dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ropa zase zachr\u00e1n\u00ed rozpo\u010det<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tr\u017en\u00ed konjunktura je pro rusk\u00fd rozpo\u010det v\u00fdhodn\u00e1. \u201ezvy\u0161uj\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edjmy z exportu jak pro nafta\u0159e, tak pro rozpo\u010det. Za kursu 72 dolar\u016f p\u0159evy\u0161uje cena barelu v n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b 5 300 rubl\u016f. Kde\u017eto p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety to bylo asi 3 500,\u201c sd\u011blil Mark Hochman.<\/p>\n

Podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch dat ministerstva financ\u00ed byl v lednu a\u017e kv\u011btnu spln\u011bn feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det s p\u0159ebytkem 312,07 miliardy rubl\u016f. Dos\u00e1hnout toho se poda\u0159ilo d\u00edky p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed faktick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z ropy a plynu pl\u00e1novan\u00fdch o 28,4 % v p\u0159epo\u010dtu na rok. \u200b<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e bude ropa st\u00e1le dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed a popt\u00e1vka bude st\u00e1le vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, pak m\u00edsto o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho deficitu 2,7 bilionu skon\u010d\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed rok s proficitem p\u0159es 500 miliard rubl\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nesm\u00edme ale spol\u00e9hat jenom na \u010dern\u00e9 zlato. Alternativn\u00ed zdroje samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nevytla\u010d\u00ed v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u010dase tradi\u010dn\u00ed ropu a plyn. Av\u0161ak nov\u00e9 technologie se rozv\u00edjej\u00ed velmi rychle a v polovin\u011b stolet\u00ed se m\u016f\u017ee energetick\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed podstatn\u011b zm\u011bnit.<\/p>\n

Irina Badmajeva<\/strong><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ropa Brent, kter\u00e1 stoupla nad 74 dolar\u016f za barel poprv\u00e9 od dubna 2019, trochu klesla….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2674,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,29,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2673"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}